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Do fear and exaggeration increase risk?




              Larry Magid
            (not pictured above)
        Co-director, ConnectSafely.org
           Founder, SafeKids.com
          larry@ConnectSafely.org
Franklin Delano Roosevelt was right


            “The only thing we have
            to fear is fear itself.”
After 9/11, flying was “dangerous”

So people drove more and deaths per
passenger mile went up
Some parents fear inoculations
Which means fewer kids are protected
against preventable diseases
And sometimes fear can lead to
questionable invasive procedures
Some panicked over:
•   Y2K
•   Killer bees
•   Swine flu
•   Stranger danger
•   Stock market “crash”
•   Al Qaeda and nuclear weapons in Iraq
•   Unemployment
•   Not enough people to fill available jobs
•   Inflation
•   Deflation
•   Obama getting elected
•   McCain getting elected
And, of course
But fear can also be protective
“You should not try to scare people into
             healthy practices”
“In 50 years of research, many different theories have been
developed to explain the inconsistent results with respect to
the effects (or lack of effects) of fear appeals, but in general
health communicators have assumed for a long time that
“you should not try to scare people into healthy practices,
including smoking prevention and cessation.”

(Hill, Chapman, Donovan, 1998).
http://www.thcu.ca/infoandresources/publications/
fear%20appeals%20-%20web%20version.pdf
If it’s not credible & actionable, people
                  don’t respond
“According to EPPM*, how people respond to fear
appeals depends on their assessment of the threat and
their perceived efficacy. When assessing threat, the
audience considers severity, or the seriousness of it, as
well as their susceptibility, or the likelihood that it will
happen to them.”

*Extended Parallel Process Model

Based on research from Kim White @ Michigan State
http://www.thcu.ca/infoandresources/publications/fear%20appeals%2
0-%20web%20version.pdf
Boomerang effect
If the perception of threat exceeds perception of
efficacy…
• They will avoid the message
• Deny they are at risk
• Mock the message or become angry at the source or
    issue (and ignore it).
• They may even increase their unhealthy behaviors
    (boomerang effect).
Danger control
• When perceived threat is low, the audience does not
  worry about efficacy and so they do not respond
• When perceived threat is high and perceived efficacy is
  low(er), the result is avoidance, denial or anger towards
  the source or issue (fear control)
• When perceived threat is high and perceived efficacy is
  higher, the recommended behavior is adopted (danger
  control)

Based on research from Kim White @ Michigan State
http://www.thcu.ca/infoandresources/publications/fear%20appeals%20-
%20web%20version.pdf
The DARE experience
• DARE classes were no less likely to have smoked marijuana or
  cigarettes, drunk alcohol, used "illicit" drugs like cocaine or heroin, or
  caved in to peer pressure than kids who’d never been exposed to DARE.
• Its panic-level assertions that "drug abuse is everywhere." Kids don’t
  respond well to hyperbole, and both the "Just Say No" message and the
  hysteria implied in the anti-drug rhetoric were pushing students away.
• It’s also possible, some researchers speculate, that by making drugs seem
  more prevalent, or "normal" than they actually are, the DARE program
  might actually push kids who are anxious to fit in towards drugs.

Time Magazine:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,99564,00.html#ixzz1W0XkvmW1DD
DARE to keep kids away from candy
• My 6-year old daughter was afraid of Walgreens because it
  sold “drugs”

• Besides, kids her age weren’t at risk of drugs – the biggest risk
  in their lives was candy and junk food

Source: My wife Patti Regehr
Fear can paralyze
And lead to irrational decisions
Predator Panic of 2004-2006
The rise of the web has not resulted in increased
              victimization of children


                                                                          51% Decline
                                                                          (during the period of the
                                                                          Web’s existence)




           Blue line represents 58% decline in child sex abuse from
           1992 to 2008
Source: Updated Trends in Child Maltreatment, 2008: Finkelhor, Jones and Shattuck: Crimes Against
Children Research Center
Moving right along
The Internet Safety Technical Task Force found that:

“Bullying and harassment, most often by peers, are the
most salient threats that minors face, both online and
offline.”

Which naturally leads to ….
Cyberbullying Panic!
It’s a problem, not an epidemic
                  Data is not consistent but the consensus is that
                   about 20% of kids experienced cyberbullying




Chart: Cox Communications Teen Online & Wireless Safety Survey
Be careful about “bullycide”
  •   Suicide experts say there is
      rarely one single reason why a
      person takes his or her life
  •   Dramatizing or glorifying suicide
      can actually lead to copycat
      suicides.
  •   Be aware of suicide media
      guidelines
Most children are neither victims nor
                      monsters
                     • Not every interaction that makes kids
                       uncomfortable is bullying
                     • While some are very vulnerable,
                       most children are reasonably
                       resilient.
                     • Across Europe, 6% of 9 to 16-year-old
                       internet users have been bullied
                       online. 3% confess to having bullied
                       others. *
                     • Far more have been bullied offline,
                       with 19 per cent saying they have
                       been bullied at all – and 12 per cent
                       have bullied someone else*

* EU Kids Online
And bullying is going down, not up

  “The percentage of youth (2-17) reporting physical
  bullying in the past year went down from 22 percent
  to 15 percent between 2003 and 2008.”

  Source: Trends in Childhood Violence and Abuse Exposure ..
  Finkelhor, et al)
Sexting Panic
A 2008 survey found that 20% of teens sent a ‘sext’




 Which led to stories like this:
But a 2011 study found
                   •     1.3% sent an image where they
                         showed breasts, genitals or
                         someone’s bottom

                   •     2.5% sent an image where they
                         were nude or partially nude



Source: Crimes Against Children Research Center, Dec , 2011
Danger of exaggeration

• Can destroy credibility
• Can cause “boomerang effect”
• Can cause people to believe that behaviors are
  “normal”
Social norms approach
            • People emulate how they think their peers
              behave
            • If people think their friends don’t smoke,
              they’re less likely to smoke.
            • Same is true with over-eating, excessive
              alcohol use and other negative behaviors,
              including bullying*




*Assessing Bullying in New Jersey Secondary Schools: Applying the Social
Norms Model to Adolescent Violence: Craig, Perkins 2008
Alternative to fear messaging
“Social-norms marketing campaigns have emerged
as an alternative to more traditional approaches
(e.g., information campaigns, moral exhortation,
fear inducing messages) designed to reduce
undesirable conduct.”

Donaldson, Graham, Piccinin, & Hansen, 1995
http://www.csom.umn.edu/assets/118375.pdf
Emphasize the positive

• People, especially youth, can benefit from
  positive images and role models
• Creating a culture of respect actually can lead
  to respect
• Respectful behavior truly is normal. Most kids
  do not bully
Examples of positive norming




Source: Assessing Bullying in New Jersey Secondary Schools: Applying the Social Norms
Model to Adolescent Violence: Craig, Perkins 2008
Thanks
       Larry Magid
Co-director, ConnectSafely.org
   Founder, SafeKids.com
  larry@ConnectSafely.org

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Do fear and exaggeration increase risk?

  • 1. Do fear and exaggeration increase risk? Larry Magid (not pictured above) Co-director, ConnectSafely.org Founder, SafeKids.com larry@ConnectSafely.org
  • 2. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was right “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
  • 3. After 9/11, flying was “dangerous” So people drove more and deaths per passenger mile went up
  • 4. Some parents fear inoculations Which means fewer kids are protected against preventable diseases
  • 5. And sometimes fear can lead to questionable invasive procedures
  • 6. Some panicked over: • Y2K • Killer bees • Swine flu • Stranger danger • Stock market “crash” • Al Qaeda and nuclear weapons in Iraq • Unemployment • Not enough people to fill available jobs • Inflation • Deflation • Obama getting elected • McCain getting elected
  • 8. But fear can also be protective
  • 9. “You should not try to scare people into healthy practices” “In 50 years of research, many different theories have been developed to explain the inconsistent results with respect to the effects (or lack of effects) of fear appeals, but in general health communicators have assumed for a long time that “you should not try to scare people into healthy practices, including smoking prevention and cessation.” (Hill, Chapman, Donovan, 1998). http://www.thcu.ca/infoandresources/publications/ fear%20appeals%20-%20web%20version.pdf
  • 10. If it’s not credible & actionable, people don’t respond “According to EPPM*, how people respond to fear appeals depends on their assessment of the threat and their perceived efficacy. When assessing threat, the audience considers severity, or the seriousness of it, as well as their susceptibility, or the likelihood that it will happen to them.” *Extended Parallel Process Model Based on research from Kim White @ Michigan State http://www.thcu.ca/infoandresources/publications/fear%20appeals%2 0-%20web%20version.pdf
  • 11. Boomerang effect If the perception of threat exceeds perception of efficacy… • They will avoid the message • Deny they are at risk • Mock the message or become angry at the source or issue (and ignore it). • They may even increase their unhealthy behaviors (boomerang effect).
  • 12. Danger control • When perceived threat is low, the audience does not worry about efficacy and so they do not respond • When perceived threat is high and perceived efficacy is low(er), the result is avoidance, denial or anger towards the source or issue (fear control) • When perceived threat is high and perceived efficacy is higher, the recommended behavior is adopted (danger control) Based on research from Kim White @ Michigan State http://www.thcu.ca/infoandresources/publications/fear%20appeals%20- %20web%20version.pdf
  • 13. The DARE experience • DARE classes were no less likely to have smoked marijuana or cigarettes, drunk alcohol, used "illicit" drugs like cocaine or heroin, or caved in to peer pressure than kids who’d never been exposed to DARE. • Its panic-level assertions that "drug abuse is everywhere." Kids don’t respond well to hyperbole, and both the "Just Say No" message and the hysteria implied in the anti-drug rhetoric were pushing students away. • It’s also possible, some researchers speculate, that by making drugs seem more prevalent, or "normal" than they actually are, the DARE program might actually push kids who are anxious to fit in towards drugs. Time Magazine: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,99564,00.html#ixzz1W0XkvmW1DD
  • 14. DARE to keep kids away from candy • My 6-year old daughter was afraid of Walgreens because it sold “drugs” • Besides, kids her age weren’t at risk of drugs – the biggest risk in their lives was candy and junk food Source: My wife Patti Regehr
  • 16. And lead to irrational decisions
  • 17. Predator Panic of 2004-2006
  • 18. The rise of the web has not resulted in increased victimization of children 51% Decline (during the period of the Web’s existence) Blue line represents 58% decline in child sex abuse from 1992 to 2008 Source: Updated Trends in Child Maltreatment, 2008: Finkelhor, Jones and Shattuck: Crimes Against Children Research Center
  • 19. Moving right along The Internet Safety Technical Task Force found that: “Bullying and harassment, most often by peers, are the most salient threats that minors face, both online and offline.” Which naturally leads to ….
  • 21. It’s a problem, not an epidemic Data is not consistent but the consensus is that about 20% of kids experienced cyberbullying Chart: Cox Communications Teen Online & Wireless Safety Survey
  • 22. Be careful about “bullycide” • Suicide experts say there is rarely one single reason why a person takes his or her life • Dramatizing or glorifying suicide can actually lead to copycat suicides. • Be aware of suicide media guidelines
  • 23. Most children are neither victims nor monsters • Not every interaction that makes kids uncomfortable is bullying • While some are very vulnerable, most children are reasonably resilient. • Across Europe, 6% of 9 to 16-year-old internet users have been bullied online. 3% confess to having bullied others. * • Far more have been bullied offline, with 19 per cent saying they have been bullied at all – and 12 per cent have bullied someone else* * EU Kids Online
  • 24. And bullying is going down, not up “The percentage of youth (2-17) reporting physical bullying in the past year went down from 22 percent to 15 percent between 2003 and 2008.” Source: Trends in Childhood Violence and Abuse Exposure .. Finkelhor, et al)
  • 25. Sexting Panic A 2008 survey found that 20% of teens sent a ‘sext’ Which led to stories like this:
  • 26. But a 2011 study found • 1.3% sent an image where they showed breasts, genitals or someone’s bottom • 2.5% sent an image where they were nude or partially nude Source: Crimes Against Children Research Center, Dec , 2011
  • 27. Danger of exaggeration • Can destroy credibility • Can cause “boomerang effect” • Can cause people to believe that behaviors are “normal”
  • 28. Social norms approach • People emulate how they think their peers behave • If people think their friends don’t smoke, they’re less likely to smoke. • Same is true with over-eating, excessive alcohol use and other negative behaviors, including bullying* *Assessing Bullying in New Jersey Secondary Schools: Applying the Social Norms Model to Adolescent Violence: Craig, Perkins 2008
  • 29. Alternative to fear messaging “Social-norms marketing campaigns have emerged as an alternative to more traditional approaches (e.g., information campaigns, moral exhortation, fear inducing messages) designed to reduce undesirable conduct.” Donaldson, Graham, Piccinin, & Hansen, 1995 http://www.csom.umn.edu/assets/118375.pdf
  • 30. Emphasize the positive • People, especially youth, can benefit from positive images and role models • Creating a culture of respect actually can lead to respect • Respectful behavior truly is normal. Most kids do not bully
  • 31. Examples of positive norming Source: Assessing Bullying in New Jersey Secondary Schools: Applying the Social Norms Model to Adolescent Violence: Craig, Perkins 2008
  • 32. Thanks Larry Magid Co-director, ConnectSafely.org Founder, SafeKids.com larry@ConnectSafely.org

Editor's Notes

  1. THERE NEVER HAS BEEN A STUDY ON HOW MUCH CHILDREN ARE SOLICITED BY “PREDATORS.” NOTE THE HEADLINE: “All Children Vulnerable to Online Predators”. IT’S A TRICK QUESTION BECAUSE THE SURVEY WASN’T ABOUT PREDATORS. It was about unwanted sexual solicitations from anybody – flirting is often an unwanted sexual solicitation, as the researchers defined the term. Here’s what the 2000 study this refers to – updated in 2006 with the figure 1 in 7, so the no. of solicitations had gone down – actually said....READ THIS:“Youth identify most sexual solicitors as being other adolescents (48% in 2000; 43% in 2006) or young adults 18-24 (20%; 30%), with few (4%; 9%) coming from older adults, and the remaining being of unknown age.” THE TOTALS: 68% teens & 18-24-year-olds in 2000; 73% in 2006.
  2. From 1990 to 2005 – the period of time that the Web was born and grew most rapidly – there was a 51% decline in overall child sexual – the chart’s showing that: out of every 10,000 US minors, 23 were abused, with that no. going down to 11 in 2005.UPDATE: 58% decline thru 2008, latest figure available (reported by CCRC here “Updated Trends in Child Maltreatment, 2008” <http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/pdf/CV203_Updated%20Trends%20in%20Child%20Maltreatment%202008_8-6-10.pdf>)NCANDS = National Data Archives on Child Abuse & Neglect
  3. THESE ARE ALL IMPORTANT BUT VERY GENERAL – CERTAINLY EACH INCIDENT IS UNIQUE AND NEEDS CARING INDIVIDUAL TREATMENT - a full, nonconfrontational, child-caregiver discussion that looks at the situation’s circumstances. The psychological damage can be considerable – some kids have suicidal thoughts.School counselor I spoke with several years ago would find out all the parties involved, get them in a room, and do bully-victim reverse role-playing (empathy training). In families and schools, some of these incidents can be turned into TEACHABLE MOMENTS (maybe anonymized?) for all parties’ benefit.