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Complexity Thinking<br />© Jurgen Appelo version 0.99management30.com<br />

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story<br />

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Once there was a software business with<br />unhappy customers<br />

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Customer satisfaction was low because of low<br />quality and productivity<br />

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Quality and productivity were low because there was<br />lack of skills and discipline<br />

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Customer dissatisfaction increased<br />pressure on teams<br />

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Stress at work meant<br />no time for<br />education<br />

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No education meant<br />no skills and<br />no discipline<br />

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Customer pressure led to<br />unhappy teams<br />

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Lack of skills and unhappy customers added to<br />decreasing<br />demotivation<br />

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Decreased<br />motivation<br />added to<br />decreasing<br />productivity<br />

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We call this a<br />Causal Loop Diagram<br />(Some call it a<br />Diagram of Effects)<br />

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It shows the business suffered from<br />vicious cycles<br />

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And not just one, but<br />many<br />

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Management saw<br />revenues declining<br />

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They tried to support<br />improvement while<br />cutting budgets<br />

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Meanwhile, technological pressure was increasing<br />And due to the crisis, economic pressure also went up<br />

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Needless to say, this business was<br />DOOMED<br />

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Needless to say, this business was<br />DOOMED<br />Then suddenly,<br />management<br />started learning...<br />

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A software team is a complex adaptive system (CAS), because it consists of parts (people) that form a system (team), and the system shows complex behavior while it keeps adapting to a changing environment.<br />

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It’s the same with brains, bacteria, immune systems, the Internet, countries, gardens, cities, and beehives.<br />They’re all complex adaptive systems.<br />

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General Systems Theory<br />Study of relationships between elements<br />Ludwig von Bertalanffy<br />(biologist)<br />1901-1972<br />Autopoiesis (how a system constructs itself)<br />Identity (how a system is identifiable)<br />Homeostatis (how a system remains stable)<br />Permeability (how a system interacts with its environment)<br />

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Cybernetics<br />Study of regulatory systems<br />Norbert Wiener<br />(mathematician)<br />1894-1964<br />Goals (the intention of achieving a desired state)<br />Acting (having an effect on the environment)<br />Sensing (checking the response of the environment)<br />Evaluating (comparing current state with system’s goal)<br />

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Chaos Theory<br />Study of unpredictable systems<br />Edward Lorenz<br />(meteorologist)<br />1917-2008<br />Strange attractors (chaotic behavior)<br />Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect)<br />Fractals (scale-invariance)<br />

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The Body of Knowledge of Systems<br />Complex systems theory is the study of complex systems using multiple system theories<br />

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Management “leading” a hierarchy of “followers” is not a very useful metaphor<br />

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Management in the System<br />Managers are just like the other people,<br />only with a few “special powers”<br />

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Management in the Environment<br />Or... managers are part of the team’s context,<br />constraining and steering the system<br />

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System boundaries are fuzzy, so you can choose...<br />System<br />Environment<br />or<br />This depends on the problem you want to solve<br />

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But you are neveran independent observer.<br />Either you influence the people and relationships directly, or you influence the environment and boundary, or both.<br />Whatever you do, your presence alone will already infuence the system.<br />

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Self-organization is the<br />default behavior <br />in complex adaptive systems<br />

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Managers want self-organization<br />to lead to things that have<br />Value<br />

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Anything that is not constrained<br />by management will self-organize<br />

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Complex adaptive systems are<br />complex<br />because of<br />Reinforcing feedback loops<br />

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Stabilizing feedback loops<br />

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Multiple causes per effect<br />

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Opposing effects per cause<br />

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Time delays between cause and effect<br />

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Complex systems are complexbecause of the many relationships, both known and unknown, that make the systems unpredictable<br />

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Known unknowns<br />The things you know that you don’t know<br />Like... who gets the next joker when playing a card game?<br />

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Unknown unknowns<br />The things you don’t know that you don’t know<br />Like... ehm?<br />

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Emergence<br />Some properties and behaviors of teams cannot be traced back to individual people<br />

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Unfortunately, emergent properties and behaviors are largely<br />unpredictable<br />

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The structureof a system can be<br />Complicated<br />very hard to understand<br />Simple<br />easy to understand<br />

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The behaviorof a system can be<br />Complex<br />somewhat<br />unpredictable<br />Ordered<br />fully<br />predictable<br />Chaotic<br />very<br />unpredictable<br />

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You can try to simplifya system to make it understandable<br />But you cannot linearizethe system to make it predictable<br />

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<ul><li>Machine Metaphor FallacyDon’t treat the organization as a machine</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Independent Observer FallacyDon’t pretend you have an objective view</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Complicated-Complex FallacyDon’t confuse complicated with complex</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Linear Behavior FallacyDon’t assume things behave in a linear way</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Reductionism-Holism FallacyDon’t think that sum of parts equals whole</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Unknown-Unknowns FallacyDon’t think you have covered all risks</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Self-Organization FallacyDon’t believe self-organization is good</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Machine Metaphor FallacyDon’t treat the organization as a machine

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Independent Observer FallacyDon’t pretend you have an objective view

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Complicated-Complex FallacyDon’t confuse complicated with complex

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Linear Behavior FallacyDon’t assume things behave in a linear way

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Reductionism-Holism FallacyDon’t think that sum of parts equals whole

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Unknown-Unknowns FallacyDon’t think you have covered all risks

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Self-Organization FallacyDon’t believe self-organization is good</li></li></ul><li>Agile managers work the system,<br />not the people.<br />

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Exercise: Complexity Fallacies (1/2)<br />Review the 14 quotes<br />Map each quote to one of the fallacies (2 per fallacy)<br />15 minutes<br />

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Exercise: Complexity Fallacies (2/2)<br />Think of one extra quote for each of the 7 fallacies<br />Write them on sticky notes numbered 1 to 7<br />Give the sticky notes to the next group<br />Let the next group guess the fallacy for each quote<br />25 minutes<br />

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Machine Metaphor Fallacy ___Don’t treat the organization as a machine<br />Independent Observer Fallacy ___Don’t pretend you have an objective view<br />Complicated-Complex Fallacy ___Don’t confuse complicated with complex<br />Linear Behavior Fallacy ___Don’t assume things behave in a linear way<br />Reductionism-Holism Fallacy ___Don’t think that sum of parts equals whole<br />Unknown-Unknowns Fallacy ___Don’t think you have covered all risks<br />Self-Organization Fallacy ___Don’t believe self-organization is good<br />1<br />3<br />2<br />

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Debrief<br />

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Feedback<br />