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Estimation techniques for Scrum Teams

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My main goal is to share and make you experiment some of the techniques that I use when transforming teams into high-perfoming agile teams, by providing you with four (4) different ways to estimate projects in Agile.

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Estimation techniques for Scrum Teams

  1. 1. 1Trust Charge Development Process Evolution 2013 1All information contained herein is confidential and/or proprietary information of Seedbox Technologies Inc.. Any unauthorized use and/or any disclosure is strictly prohibited. Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series By Jesus Mendez
  2. 2. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams About You
  3. 3. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams I’m passionate reader who nurtures from curiosity by connecting with people and finding ways to change the world by learning and sharing, one conversation at a time. An authentic dancer who uses coaching to help himself and others to thrive. About Me Twitter: @chuzzete
  4. 4. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming TeamsLink to BOOK / WEBSITE Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams 0. Introduction (Warm up) 0.5 Context (Agile Scrum) (5 minutes) 1. Thoughts about Estimation in Software Development (10 minutes) 2. Thoughts about the #NoEstimates movement (20 minutes) 3. Estimating Scrum Projects – Challenges (10 minutes)  Let’s reflect about our biggest challenges when estimating scrum projects  Write down the biggest challenges that you’re facing  Let’s share them in groups of three-four people  What have we learned? Any similarities? 4. Our role in the Estimation process (5 Minutes) 5. Coffee Break (5 Minutes) 6. Estimation Techniques Workshop (60 Minutes)  Absolute Estimates  Planning Poker  Affinity Estimation  Relative Estimation 7. Coffee Break (5 Minutes) 8. Final thoughts (Retrospective) – (30 Minutes) 9. What’s next (5 Minutes) Proposed Agenda
  5. 5. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Individuals Teams Divisions Organization Consume + Request CONTEXT
  6. 6. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams CONTEXT
  7. 7. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams CONTEXT
  8. 8. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams TEAMS Agile Values  Customer Collaboration  Individuals & Interactions  Working Software  Responding to change Agile Mindset  Iterative approach  Continuous Feedback  Self-Organization  Working together  Have fun  Get better results faster CONTEXT
  9. 9. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams CONTEXT Individuals Teams Divisions Organization
  10. 10. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams CONTEXT
  11. 11. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE Forming Agile Teams - Flow Techniques for Forming Agile Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams 1 Planning The Team Transformation Process 2 Team Transformation Process Kickoff B Product Road Mapping (Team Level) 3 Iteration Planning 4 Daily Sync 5 Help Team stay focused 8 Iteration Retrospective Team Performance Satisfaction 7Iteration Review 9 Iteration Report A Product Road Mapping (Stakeholder Level) 6 Product Backlog Refinement Iteration Review Preparation I T E R A T I O N 1 or 2 Weeks
  12. 12. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams WHAT’S THAT?
  13. 13. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT) What’s that ? Human Evaluation(Amount of Work to develop something)= Estimation = Human Evaluation Amount of work Estimation
  14. 14. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (the optimism bias) (also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism) cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. Even though if we have Previous experience
  15. 15. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (cognitive bias/the optimism bias)
  16. 16. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams WHY DO WE ESTIMATE PROJECTS?
  17. 17. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams THOUGHtS ABOUT ESTIMATION (WHAT’S FOR?) PROJECT IS PROFITABLE FITS INTO THE SPRINT WHAT TO DO IN A SPRINTWHAT BRINGS MORE VALUE REQUIRED RESOURCES BUDGET TO HELP DECIDE GO OR NOT GO TEAM ENGAGEMENT
  18. 18. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (WHAT’S FOR?) ESTIMATION
  19. 19. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams WHAT’S THE ULTIMATE GOAL?
  20. 20. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams People get: - Very caught up in the actual number, forgetting that it’s just an estimate and wrong anyway. - Very emotionally invested in being “right”, they start defending their estimates, or giving in to the majority without discussion. - There is confusion between team members about the proper way to estimate effort. When the real deal when estimating effort is to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus, it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan. THE ULTIMATE GOAL (AGILE CONTEXT) Relative estimate vs. absolute 80/20 Rule L.E.B.E Rule Getting about 80% right estimates with 20% of the effort Less Effort Better Estimates
  21. 21. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams WHAT ABOUT OTHER ALTERNATIVES?
  22. 22. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams THE #NOESTIMATES MOVEMENT
  23. 23. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams GO BACK TO THE SOURCE ESTIMATION SIMPLE REDUCE WASTE THE #NOESTIMATES MOVEMENT
  24. 24. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams HACK 1. Minimize Importance of the Decision Approximate Direction Learn iteratively Adapt Collaborate Flexible Team Roadmap based on goals achievable within the next Quarter Sprint results vs Team Roadmap Adapt Team Roadmap Each Sprint keep Team Roadmap Visible for the team  FAIL EARLY  LEARN FASTER  REDUCED COST  FLEXIBILITY #NOESTIMATES HACKs
  25. 25. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams HACK 2. Focus on the Vision Product Vision Regularly revised Prioritized Backlog Short Iterations focus is on existing projects only (Short term) Feedback Product Vision Clearly established Product Backlog Well Sliced Progress iteratively #NOESTIMATES HACKs
  26. 26. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams HACK 3. Set a limited budget Set small amount of money for a short period of time •Iteration reviews each week Decide to continue or not by the end of the period HELP US DECIDE AFTER TRYING => Reduce risk without planning at the beginning #NOESTIMATES HACKs
  27. 27. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams HACK 4. Amount of stories completed vs velocity Prerequisite User story decoupling Is properly done Experiences Agile Teams Fine Stories Prioritized Backlog #Amount Stories delivered #NOESTIMATES HACKs
  28. 28. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams HACK 4. Amount of stories completed vs velocity 12 15.0 16.0 10.0 13.0 8.0 17.0 26.0 11.0 20.0 13.00 14.00 9.00 13.00 11.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 #Items completed vs Completed Story Points x sprint # Items Completed Completed (Story Points) # Forecast Linear (# Items Completed) Linear (Completed (Story Points)) #NOESTIMATES HACKs
  29. 29. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams WHAT’S OUR ROLE IN THE ESTIMATION PROCESS?
  30. 30. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE Our Role as Scrum Master Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Connect people and make things happen COMMON SENSE INSTALLERS
  31. 31. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE Our Role as Scrum Master Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams MAKE THINGS VISIBLE
  32. 32. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE Our Role as Scrum Master Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams HELP PEOPLE
  33. 33. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE Our Role as Scrum Master Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams MAKE IT EASIER
  34. 34. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
  35. 35. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Estimation at different levels T-SHIRT SIZES Affinity Estimates Planning Poker Absolute Estimates Sprints Story Points Story Points Hours Sprints
  36. 36. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Content 2 3 Planning Poker Relative Estimation 1 4 Absolute Estimates Affinity estimation Rules - 4 Exercises. - 10 Minutes duration per exercise. - Team had to estimate items using a diff. technique. - Each team got a set of cards with items written on them. - Each team got the same items so we could compare between teams at the end. - When each team finished estimating, the facilitator wrote results per team in a flip chart/white board, and start the discussion about the technique. - The facilitator shared correct answers once each team has completed each exercise. - A general discussion is hold about all techniques and the team decides where we go from here Estimation techniques workshop
  37. 37. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Description The items to be estimated are dogs. Instructions - Each team have to estimate the weight of each dog(item) in kilograms - Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding - After consensus, the team should decide what estimate would be assigned to each dog (item) Special note - To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as soon as they can. Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates
  38. 38. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer Chihuahua 3 Great Dane 90 Staffordshir e Bull Terrier 17 Appalachian Mountain Dog 0 Border Collie 34 American Cocker Spaniel 13 Exercise 1: Absolute estimation Results
  39. 39. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Description The items to be estimated are country area. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation Instructions - Use Spain as your reference point (Value assigned to Spain Area is 3) - Each team have to estimate the area of each country(item) - Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding, then each person chooses a card from their set that they think is the closes fit. - Everyone displays their cards at the same time (avoid influencing other between each other). - People discuss the outliers, usually the highest and lowest numbers to see of the people who selected them, had a different understanding to everyone else. - After discussion, people re-vote taking in consideration anything uncovered in the discussion. - Once everyone converges on a number that is selected as the estimate. - If convergence is not reached by the third vote, then the team would take the highest number or majority number. Special note - To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as soon as they can. Exercise 2: Planning Poker
  40. 40. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer Spain 3 3 3 3 3 3 China 40 Luxembourg 0 Denmark 1 South Africa 8 Belize 1 Exercise 2: Planning Poker Results
  41. 41. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Description The items to be estimated are cars volume. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation Instructions - Lay out one set of planning poker cards so that you have all the numbers. - Agree on a reference story, and place it next to the reference point. In this case put the card “Convertible” next to the Planning poker card identified with the number “3”. - Give the stack of story cards to the first person in the team. - Each person has a turn where you can either: - take a new car from the stack of story cards and place it where you think it fits, or - Move a card already on the table to a new spot if you don’t agree with it. - Note: You must always move a card if you don’t agree with the estimate rather than playing a new one - Note2: If you play a new card it means you are happy with every card on the table. - After your turn you hand the cards to the next person. - If you do a full circuit of the team and one card has been moved each time, then you discuss it before continuing. - Note: People could explain why they are placing a card at a certain number, but remember, open discussion just when a card was moved. Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation
  42. 42. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer Motorbike Startship enterprize SUV Minivan Convertible 3 3 3 3 3 3 Bus Exercise 3: Affinity estimation Results
  43. 43. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Description The items to be estimated are Animal weight. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation Instructions - Take all story cards and arrange them on the table in ascending size (ignore the reference point for now) - Decide what is bigger and what’s the same size (It can be done all team members together) - Once you the team has arranged all cards, only then assign numbers, starting with the reference point (the “impala” in this case) Exercise 4: Relative Estimation
  44. 44. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer Elephant Giraffe Elephant shrew crocodile snake impala 3 3 3 3 3 3 Exercise 4: Relative estimation Results
  45. 45. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams References Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing, http://www.amazon.com/Forming-Storming- Norming-Performing- Communication/dp/1475968434/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431235&sr=8- 1&keywords=forming+teams The Five dysfunctions of a Team, http://www.amazon.com/Overcoming-Five-Dysfunctions- Team-Facilitators/dp/0787976377/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431275&sr=8- 1&keywords=overcoming+the+five+dysfunctions+of+a+team The Pause Principle http://www.amazon.com/Pause-Principle-Forward-Kevin- Cashman/dp/B00DEK8RUI/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431361&sr=1- 2&keywords=pause+principle The Secret of Teams, http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Teams-What-Great- Know/dp/1609940938/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431429&sr=1- 1&keywords=the+secrets+of+teams Coaching Agile Teams, http://www.amazon.com/Coaching-Agile-Teams-ScrumMasters- Addison-Wesley/dp/0321637704/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431456&sr=1- 1&keywords=coaching+agile+teams
  46. 46. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams Book: http://www.leanpub.com/forming_agile_teams Twitter: @chuzzete Website: www.jesusmendez.ca Email: transformingteams@jesusmendez.ca Download your preferred template, sign-up to our monthly newsletter and get notified first when my upcoming workbook is out the door. Get a copy of my workbook now, by using the special coupon that have been created specially for the participants of this workshop
  47. 47. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams

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