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Telemedia
 Futures
      by Gerd Leonhard         ‣ Futurist
                               ‣ Strategist
                 ...
From a Broadcast World
 to a Networked World
From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration
                      Telecom
  Internet
                            Content
Social
Ne...
From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic
What is the value of....?



Source: http://denniscass.com/
The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’

Experience Platform
Service Pipe

Content Pipe

   Data
   Pipe
Source: eMarketer.com
New technologies - new practices - new business models
Firehoses of Information
Social games & virtual goods




     800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY
   65 Million+ users without any advertising
      ...
Next: The Napsterization of Books...?
    Source: YouTube.com
Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts
                         Focus on Control
                         Opportunities for Growth
  1...
The Opportunity: Lubricate!
Data is the new Oil...
  Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers
      Click-trails and digital bread-crumbs
       Op...
Music     Video     Games       Books       Mags & Print

           Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
100%    ...
What we need:

   Permission
    Standards
  Transparency
  Engagement
Content: pricing logic will flip
      Price         Users
100



 75



 50   Metrics will be reinvented
 25



  0
     ...
More
Permissions
 More added
   Values
Better Price
   More
Convenience
Expensive   Cheaper   Flat-Rated




                                   New Ecosystem
                          Expensive
The Future of Content:
      Attention-based Income Explodes
                                             10.0




“Broadb...
Content is only ~20% of the Cost




                        Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra
Bono / Paul McGuinness


                 Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)
Media $$$: no
 longer about
 Distribution
2010: watch the sea change

                     Source: IFPI Report 2008
Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
         Value of Meta-Content        Value of Experiences
         Value of...
Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!
ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:

     Social Networking
      Content Services
    Communication 2....
Thanks for your time
email me at
gerd@mediafuturist.com
twitter.com/gleonhard
facebook: gleonhard
more presentations at
ww...
TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom
TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom
TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom
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TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom

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from my presentation at BLPLaw in January 2010: insights into what's on the horizon in the technology, media and telecoms sector in 2010 (and beyond!) see http://www.mediafuturist.com

Published in: Technology

TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom

  1. 1. Telemedia Futures by Gerd Leonhard ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard At BLPLaw London, January 13, 2010
  2. 2. From a Broadcast World to a Networked World
  3. 3. From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
  4. 4. From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
  5. 5. The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration Telecom Internet Content Social Networks Advertising Consumer Electronics
  6. 6. From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic
  7. 7. What is the value of....? Source: http://denniscass.com/
  8. 8. The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’ Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  9. 9. Source: eMarketer.com
  10. 10. New technologies - new practices - new business models
  11. 11. Firehoses of Information
  12. 12. Social games & virtual goods 800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY 65 Million+ users without any advertising 1.2 Million users per day est. $200M / Year in revenues Source: YouTube.com “farmville girl’
  13. 13. Next: The Napsterization of Books...? Source: YouTube.com
  14. 14. Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts Focus on Control Opportunities for Growth 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences
  15. 15. The Opportunity: Lubricate!
  16. 16. Data is the new Oil... Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers Click-trails and digital bread-crumbs Opt-in information such as location Ratings, comments, tags and other feedback
  17. 17. Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% Digital Content Trends 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
  18. 18. What we need: Permission Standards Transparency Engagement
  19. 19. Content: pricing logic will flip Price Users 100 75 50 Metrics will be reinvented 25 0 Was Will be
  20. 20. More Permissions More added Values Better Price More Convenience
  21. 21. Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated New Ecosystem Expensive
  22. 22. The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes 10.0 “Broadband is useless if 7.5 your mind stays narrow” 5.0 2.5 Was 0 Soon Copy Based Revenues Mid-term Future Attention Based Revenues
  23. 23. Content is only ~20% of the Cost Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra
  24. 24. Bono / Paul McGuinness Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)
  25. 25. Media $$$: no longer about Distribution
  26. 26. 2010: watch the sea change Source: IFPI Report 2008
  27. 27. Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  28. 28. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!
  29. 29. ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain: Social Networking Content Services Communication 2.0 Money 2.0 eLearning
  30. 30. Thanks for your time email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard facebook: gleonhard more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com

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