SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Shifting to the



         www.mediafuturist.com
         twitter.com/gleonhard
What does the Future hold -

and how will we prepare for it?
Unprecedented Change
in Communications and
      Commerce
The other 3 Billion (O3B)
Wikipedia: By allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/
 WiMAX towers, the O3b Networks system will completely change the
economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest-
              growing markets for communications services
“...completely change
    the economics of
 telecommunications
  infrastructure in the
world's fastest-growing
   telecommunication
        markets”
Source: Ruder-Finn Study Feb 2010
(Almost) everything we used
  to do on the Computer is
 shifting to Mobile Devices
Behavior Changes... and new dangers;)
Expect extreme Fragmentation of Commerce Models and Timing
Mobile
  Social
Connected
 Real-Time
Empowered
Welcome to Communication 2.0
De-centralized
Mobile
Cross-Media
 Interactive
 Real-Time
Serious food for thought...
Noise    Attraction
Game-Changers driven by “Open + Connected”
I expect 30+% of all Advertising to shift
  to digital, interactive, mobile, social,
       video, in the next 2-3 years
Apps not Ads:
Appvertising not @vertising




     Bangkok, Thailand *Gerd Leonhard
The Open
 Network
Economy
Open Network Economy: The Topics

                 Open *amap
         Networked vs ‘The Network’
                  Mobile First
                   The Cloud
                  Data = Gold
         Followers - not Consumers
               Friction = Fiction
           Trust = the new Control
         Fuzzy Logic vs Binary Logic
        ROI 2.0 (return on Involvement)
‘Broadcast’ Business: shrinking, and
   becoming a lot more expensive
The Consequences of ‘Closed’...?!
Music Industry:
 “What does the
Future hold - and
   how do we
  prevent it...?”
       Source: seekingalpha.com
“We can enforce a different future than
that which our customers want”
“We can ignore our users’ emerging
behaviors and mold them as we see fit”
“We need to watch out for what’s good
for us, first and foremost”
“Our gain needs to be 100%
ours - it’s a win-lose world!”
“More control = more money”
The ‘captive consumer’ is...dying
=$
Networked Business Models
A key realization:

Networked
  People
 Innovate
  Faster
“Not necessarily Harmony but
extreme Concern and Involvement”
Leaders become
Connectors -
  not just ‘Directors’
The World’s
OS is shifting
  towards
Connected &
   Social
Online and Offline are converging
Our future is ...
TeleMedia: success driven by Collaboration
ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:

     Social Networking
      Content Services
    Communication 2.0
           Money 2.0
            eLearning
Source: Slideshare
“Trust
is the most important currency
online, so to build it we adhere
   to three principles of open
       information: value,
 transparency, and control”
 Google Senior VP, Product Management Jonathan Rosenberg's essay, The Meaning of Open, published on the Offical Google Blog
The opportunity is to earn Trust, now




                Trust Economy

How do you get Trust without Openness?
Social Business...Trust Osmosis
            s t
         Tru

                          ru st
                         T
A Fundamental Shift: Closed to Open




              Energy
             Business
            Education
        Telecommunication
         Media & Content
The World’s OS is Morphing
A tough change... but inevitable
3 ‘Open’ challenges
1.Openness is hard - and usually not our default setting
2.Conversations take time - and can become real work
3.‘Offering something for free so that you can ask to
  get paid later’ takes real courage - and believe!
Hyper-Competition
 Hyper-Collaboration
O’Reilly Safari Books: priced for open Markets
• Unlimited
  access to
  10.000 technical
  books online, for
  $42.00 / month
• Added values:
  videos, rough-
  cuts, mobile,
  collaboration
  tools etc
• 15 Million +
  users, out-sells
  all other O’Reilly
  offerings
Closed vs Open...
A few examples

 Free / cheap phone calls
 Mobile phone applications
  Downloadable / streamed /
     catch-up TV shows
     Good generic devices
12/2009: Google’s Open Business Manifesto:
   “Closed system are well-defined and
   profitable, but only for those that control them”
   “Open system are chaotic and profitable, but
   only for those that understand them well and
   move faster than everyone else”
   “Closed systems grow quickly while open
   systems evolve more slowly (requiring a
   longer view”
   “Google has all variants”
Ecosystem not Egosystem
    You         Me

                     Them
 Us

                     Me
          You
This is happening pretty much everywhere:
  From a packaged-goods i.e.
‘stuff’ mentality to a service and
      ‘experience’ mentality
Source: Flickr Desert Diva
Touch-Screens / Haptic Interfaces
Gesture Control
Expect more of this: Real-Life + Mobile + Internet




                       Imagine what this could do for
                             your business...




                                          Source: Wikitude / Youtube
Books: the Napster Moment
Example: Farmville Game on Facebook
• Application exists only on Facebook
• It’s free but you can buy goods to enhance the experience:
  800.000 tractors ‘sold’ every single day
• A team of 15 Developers release new virtual items into
  FarmVille twice a week; new features debut weekly.
• 65 Million+ users without any advertising
• 1.2 Million users per day
• Parent company Zynga earns est. $200M / Year
3D Printing
Source: Slideshare
“Governments are freeing up their data,
   records and information; museums and
   galleries are throwing open their doors;
NGOs and charities are becoming publishers;
 universities are opening their lecture halls;
    scientists and corporations are sharing
 knowledge in ways which would have been
     unimaginable even 10 years ago...”
Brands are now...
                       hers
                P ublis
               Broad
                     casters
              M edia
             C ont ent
What are you broadcasting?
Decentral business models emerge
Examples
       Centralized     Decentralized
Microsoft / Windows          Google
        MTV                  Youtube
Tower Records / HMV      Spotify / Last.fm
 Traditional Telecom          Skype

 Wall Street Journal    The Guardian (UK)
The future is no longer binary....




          It’s fuzzy.
Open Network Economy Puzzle Pieces
         Open Collaboration




                              Open Innovation




              Open Business
                Strategy
From Don Tapscott *Wikinomics: Enterprise 2.0
Control ≠ Money
 Egosystem 
Ecosystem
       Command & Control
  becomes Coordinate & Cultivate
         *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
About Control: some good quotes
Jeff Jarvis
It’s not either... or!



                   versus
Investigate Freemium
Not mere consumption... Access, Packaging... Service!
Crowd-sourcing: Open Innovation
Example
The term
Social Media is really kind of an
  artifact, a mere construct.



         Better:
   Networked Media.
   Real-Time Media.
   User-driven Media.
    Engaged Media.
What does this mean for your business?
Openness propels Social Media Growth
Social
Media will
soon beat
  eMail,
Video may
 well beat
  Search
Social Media is
“Customer Relationship Management”
How Dell does Twitter
Get rid of Push Marketing

               Top-down
           Domination Plays
       Expensive watering-cans
       Uni-directional marketing
        Interrupting consumers
          Shout: buy buy buy
       100% control everything
Social-Mobile-Web-Native Marketing: Pull
“Followers, Friends, Fans, Users”
       Attract and addict
     Low-cost, very targeted
         Conversational
     Engagement is the goal
  Message: share. follow. talk.
           100% Trust
Once we are really connected,
Curation matters more than volume
Remember
The global shift to Open
   Open licenses
  Open innovation
  Open distribution
 Open competition
 Open partnerships
 Open technologies
Open data standards
Open Network Economy: Summary

    Move towards Open *amap     (as much as possible)


    Think and plan for: Mobile First
    Move towards “the Cloud”
    Take advantage of “Data = new Gold”
    Think Followers - not Consumers
    Join “The Networked”
    Reduce Friction - pursue Liquidity
    Replace Control with Trust
    Embrace fuzzy logic, plan for change
    Pursue ROI 2.0: return on Involvement
Egosystem not Ecosystem
Thanks for your attention!




App Store: “Media Futurist”
email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
  twitter.com/gleonhard
   facebook: gleonhard

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