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Universities in 2020: A Technology Perspective by Lee Rainie

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Universities in 2020: A Technology Perspective by Lee Rainie

  1. 1. Universities in 2020: A technology perspective Virginia Tech Task Force January 28, 2011 Lee Rainie: Director, Pew Internet Project Email: [email_address]
  2. 2. Eli Noam 1995 to AAAS <ul><li>Creation of knowledge and evaluation of its validity </li></ul><ul><li>Preservation of information </li></ul><ul><li>Transmission of information to others </li></ul>
  3. 3. Some big questions for universities <ul><li>What’s the franchise? What’s the commodity? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What “business” are we in? Who are our “competitors”? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How should knowledge and teaching be organized? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How do we foster cross-discipline collaboration? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What teaching is best done in physical space? What can be done virtually? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What are the correct social / pedagogical norms of those spaces? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How should intellectual property be handled when “ napsterization ” looms over every idea? </li></ul><ul><li>What new knowledge forms and distribution platforms merit attention and reward? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Internet and Broadband Revolution
  5. 5. Undergrad - 98% Grad – 99.5% Comm/Coll - 94%
  6. 6. 70% 66% Undergrad - 89% Grad – 94% Comm/Coll - 71%
  7. 7. Consequences for info ecosystem <ul><li>Volume </li></ul>Velocity Vibrance Valence / Relevance
  8. 8. Consequences for info ecosystem Explosion of creators and niches
  9. 9. Networked creators among internet users <ul><li>62% are social networking site users </li></ul><ul><ul><li>86% college … 82% grad … 78% of comm/coll </li></ul></ul><ul><li>~50% share photos </li></ul><ul><li>33% create content tags </li></ul><ul><li>32% contribute rankings and ratings </li></ul><ul><li>30% share personal creations </li></ul><ul><li>26% post comments on sites and blogs </li></ul><ul><li>15% have personal website </li></ul><ul><li>15% are content remixers </li></ul><ul><li>14% are bloggers </li></ul><ul><li>12% use Twitter </li></ul><ul><ul><li>25% college … 26% grad … 21% comm/coll </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4% use location-sharing services </li></ul>
  10. 10. Wireless Connectivity Revolution
  11. 11. Cell phone owners – 85% adults 96% 90% 85% 58% Undergrad - 96% Grad – 99.2% Comm/Coll - 94%
  12. 12. Mobile internet connectors – 57% adults 62% 59% 55% Undergrad - 92% Grad – 88% Comm/Coll - 84%
  13. 13. 53% of adults own laptops – (88% coll… 93% grad …70% comm/coll) 45% of adults own MP3 players – up from 11% in 2005 50% of adults own DVRs – up from 3% in 2002 42% of adults own game consoles 6% of adults own e-book readers – Kindle (9% college.. 7% grad .. 4% comm/coll) 5% of adults own tablet computer – iPad (5% for college/grad … 4% comm/coll)
  14. 14. Consequences for info ecosystem Anywhere Any device Presence Place Any time Alone together
  15. 15. Social Networking Revolution
  16. 16. Undergrad - 86% Grad – 82% Comm/Coll - 79%
  17. 17. Consequences for info ecosystem Social dashboard Pervasive awareness
  18. 18. So what for higher ed? (1) Changed info ecology for networked learners <ul><li>Attention zones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuous partial attention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deep dives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Info-snacking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Media zones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Social </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Immersive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Streams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Creative / participatory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Study / work </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. So what for higher ed (2) Social networks play a more important role for info and knowledge acquisition <ul><li>As sentries – word of mouth matters more </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in attention awakening </li></ul></ul><ul><li>As information evaluators – they vouch for/discredit information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in expertise assignment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>As forums for action – everybody’s a broadcaster/publisher/critic/cheerleader </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in influencer arrangement </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. So what for higher ed (3) New literacies are required <ul><li>- screen literacy - graphics and symbols </li></ul><ul><li>- navigation literacy </li></ul><ul><li>- connections and context literacy </li></ul><ul><li>- skepticism </li></ul><ul><li>- value of contemplative time </li></ul><ul><li>- how to create content/knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>- personal information literacy </li></ul><ul><li>- ethical behavior in new world </li></ul>June 25, 2010
  21. 21. Upheaval 1 -- Gadgets and interfaces
  22. 22. Changes underway <ul><li>Voice, smart/semantic web, translation, natural language search, projectors, screens, wearable devices make information …. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pew Internet danah boyd </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>pervasive - persistent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>portable - replicable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>personal - scalable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>participatory - searchable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> COLLAPSED CONTEXTS </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Are hot future gadgets evident now? October 22, 2010 July 9, 2010 Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators. 81% experts The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise. 16% experts
  24. 24. Upheaval 2 – The metaverse
  25. 25. The virtual world merges with real world <ul><li>Metaverse Roadmap: The internet of things enhances the internet of people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Augmented reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mirror worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Life logging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtual worlds </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Upheaval 3 – The exaflood
  27. 27. Age of big data and “the internet of things” – 50 billion connected devices by 2020? <ul><li>Exabyte: 1 billion gigabytes (10 18 ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2002: 5 exabytes of info on entire internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2010: 21 exabytes pass on internet per month </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Networked learners of the future <ul><li>More self directed and less dependent on top-down instructions </li></ul><ul><li>Better arrayed to capture new information inputs </li></ul><ul><li>More reliant on feedback and response </li></ul><ul><li>More attuned to group outreach and group knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>More open to cross discipline insights, creating their own “tagged” taxonomies </li></ul><ul><li>More oriented towards people being their own individual nodes of production </li></ul>
  29. 29. Implications for higher ed <ul><li>Constant connectivity changes social patterns and info flows: real-time info/analytics become powerful </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge and tribal niches proliferate even more </li></ul><ul><li>Credentialing and validation of knowledge is expanded </li></ul><ul><li>New “market players” enter the space – commercial, open source </li></ul>
  30. 30. Thank you! <ul><li>Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project [email_address] Twitter - @lrainie 202-419-4500 </li></ul>

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