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The Future of Media
Digital media business and broadcasting -
   opportunities, trends and scenarios


 ★ twitter.com/gleo...
The challenge: New Models!
        Content Consumption (all)
        Revenue Potential
        Success with Traditional Co...
The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’
• The Internet is a giant copy machine - a...
But this is not about technology...




 The Age of Collaboration
Emerging cultural practices
   New business models
The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
Copy Economy



   Access /
Usage / Sharing
  Economy
All of a sudden

                           COMMU-
                          NICATION MEDIA
                              ...
Despite all the current gloom & fear:
                                             Bundles and Flat
                      ...
The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Starting in 2009:
• Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers
• Deep collaboration becomes the KEY
  requirement for creat...
2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia


Experience Platform
        Service Pipe
          Content Pipe

              Dat...
Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open
Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
         Value of Meta-Content        Value of Experiences
         Value of...
The Age of Collaboration:

  Egosystem
    becomes
Ecosystem
Digital Content Trends
       Music     Video     Games       Books       Mags & Print

           Percentage of Revenues ...
Source: The Standard
TOTAL Mobility Everywhere
 CONSTANT Peering and Connecting
DEEP Oceans of Content & Information
• Straight to Digital Content
• Straight to Bundled Access
• Straight to Mobile
• Straight to next-gen Advertising
Remixed and User-made Content:
 50% of consumption by 2015?
The Future of Content: Copy $ down, Attention $$ up
             Copy Based Revenues    Attention Based Revenues

10.0



...
$3 per app to do what
  people would do for free,
 anyway: listen to their music
         A great alternative to
    getti...
This is where Content resides now...
The Future of Content is in

the   Cloud and the
      Crowd
• Collaborative Revenue Models
•The joint development
 of New Generatives
 based on Open Access
Media $$$: no
longer about
 Distribution
A good example of how not to do this...
Listening, Reading or Watching
              =
 Keeping, Copying
    & Sharing
‘Free’




  ‘Free’
Content on the Internet will be licensed like we
 license Radio & TV, today - starting with Music

• Online access = conte...
Permission, accounting and... compensating
The Printing Press
brought us
Copyright
The Internet brings
 Usage-
us
Rights
Google & Free Music in China
• Free / Feels Like Free Music for China!
• Unlimited, unprotected downloads
• Paid with Atte...
Next
             Generation
            ‘Advertising’
             New
New Data   Content
           Economy
Economy
In this world, Permission, Attention and
Trust leads to Content’s Remuneration
Questioning assumptions
So should we control what People do online
in order to protect a traditional business model?
‘New Money’ Examples
Social Media is becoming... CRM!
Advertising...?
The new Generatives of Content
influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...

              C...
Average Available Time         Available Choices        Average Available Attention



               Attention, Choice & ...
Example: the difference between




   iStockphoto photos are purchased
   because of:
  • Much better metadata.
  • Bette...
New Generatives and The Future of Television
The TV experience is becoming
unified across all screens
What’s new about that?
• Your own, unique selection
  of add-ons, widgets and
  applications on all platforms
• This TV
 k...
And how will we experience all this?
The Sharing Economy Logic
        ...the Output (i.e. publish, re-
        mix, co-create, life-stream...)
        the Inp...
Welcome to the Culture of Collaboration
 • Collaborative value creation: new $$$ together
 •Make Money around the content
...
‘Free’ gets my Attention...




Merit and Trust gets my Money.
Thanks for listening!



Please talk back
★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
★ twitter.com/gleonhard
★ facebook: gleonha...
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
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The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)

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Presentation held by Author & Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard in April 2009 at the european television and media management academy (etma) in Strasbourg, France.

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The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)

  1. 1. The Future of Media Digital media business and broadcasting - opportunities, trends and scenarios ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ www.mediafuturist.com ★ www.music20thebook.com ★ www.gerdtube.com & .net
  2. 2. The challenge: New Models! Content Consumption (all) Revenue Potential Success with Traditional Content Models Was Is 2 years 5 years
  3. 3. The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
  4. 4. But this is not about technology... The Age of Collaboration Emerging cultural practices New business models
  5. 5. The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
  6. 6. Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  7. 7. All of a sudden COMMU- NICATION MEDIA & SEARCH CONTENT ADVER- & ENTER- TISING TAIN- TELE- MENT COM
  8. 8. Despite all the current gloom & fear: Bundles and Flat Rates will drive this MUCH bigger potential (imho) Huge potential - once licensing issues are solved Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Study
  9. 9. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
  10. 10. Starting in 2009: • Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers • Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps • Over-the top layers (search, social media...) will come down, telecoms will move up!
  11. 11. 2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  12. 12. Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open
  13. 13. Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  14. 14. The Age of Collaboration: Egosystem becomes Ecosystem
  15. 15. Digital Content Trends Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
  16. 16. Source: The Standard
  17. 17. TOTAL Mobility Everywhere CONSTANT Peering and Connecting DEEP Oceans of Content & Information
  18. 18. • Straight to Digital Content • Straight to Bundled Access • Straight to Mobile • Straight to next-gen Advertising
  19. 19. Remixed and User-made Content: 50% of consumption by 2015?
  20. 20. The Future of Content: Copy $ down, Attention $$ up Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  21. 21. $3 per app to do what people would do for free, anyway: listen to their music A great alternative to getting Radio-Play (i.e. NetPlay) A great way to sell concert tickets and offer other location-based services A direct line of communication - from band to fan - is worth Gold
  22. 22. This is where Content resides now...
  23. 23. The Future of Content is in the Cloud and the Crowd
  24. 24. • Collaborative Revenue Models •The joint development of New Generatives based on Open Access
  25. 25. Media $$$: no longer about Distribution
  26. 26. A good example of how not to do this...
  27. 27. Listening, Reading or Watching = Keeping, Copying & Sharing
  28. 28. ‘Free’ ‘Free’
  29. 29. Content on the Internet will be licensed like we license Radio & TV, today - starting with Music • Online access = content access • Music access = payment included • Create a new ecosystem on-top!
  30. 30. Permission, accounting and... compensating
  31. 31. The Printing Press brought us Copyright The Internet brings Usage- us Rights
  32. 32. Google & Free Music in China • Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! • Unlimited, unprotected downloads • Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads • In China, little ‘cannibalization’ concerns • Google is willing to ‘lubricate’ • Industry willing because: China is ‘lost’ for traditional Copyright
  33. 33. Next Generation ‘Advertising’ New New Data Content Economy Economy
  34. 34. In this world, Permission, Attention and Trust leads to Content’s Remuneration
  35. 35. Questioning assumptions
  36. 36. So should we control what People do online in order to protect a traditional business model?
  37. 37. ‘New Money’ Examples
  38. 38. Social Media is becoming... CRM!
  39. 39. Advertising...?
  40. 40. The new Generatives of Content influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler... Conversation Convenience Selection / Filtering Packaging Individualization Immediacy Tr u s t
  41. 41. Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  42. 42. Example: the difference between iStockphoto photos are purchased because of: • Much better metadata. • Better findability. • Faster service. • Low & attractive price-points
  43. 43. New Generatives and The Future of Television
  44. 44. The TV experience is becoming unified across all screens
  45. 45. What’s new about that? • Your own, unique selection of add-ons, widgets and applications on all platforms • This TV knows who you are!
  46. 46. And how will we experience all this?
  47. 47. The Sharing Economy Logic ...the Output (i.e. publish, re- mix, co-create, life-stream...) the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...) ... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)
  48. 48. Welcome to the Culture of Collaboration • Collaborative value creation: new $$$ together •Make Money around the content •Compensation not Control
  49. 49. ‘Free’ gets my Attention... Merit and Trust gets my Money.
  50. 50. Thanks for listening! Please talk back ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com

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