This document discusses load forecasting analytics for use cases ranging from real-time to long-term forecasting. It notes the growth of distributed energy resources (DER) such as solar, storage, and electric vehicles and the challenges this brings to utilities in balancing power needs and maintaining grid stability. The document presents GE Power's T-Forecast solution for computing load forecasts at the substation and distribution grid levels to help utilities better predict energy demands and balance loads on the grid.

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June 5, 2018
Load Forecasting Analytics
Use cases from real-time to long term
Mark van den Oudenrijn
Solution Architect
GE Power

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> 110 KV
50-110 KV
10-50 KV
10-0,4 KV
National Transmission
Grid (TSO)
Local Distribution Grid
(DSO)

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World: probability of Near Term DER Mgt Needs
= Grid Parity + Access to Capital
Sources: GTM Research, SEIA, ESA, Navigant, CPUC, EuPD Research, SEDC
39,7%
26,9% 23,9% 20,6%
6,5%
28,5%
15,9%
24,8%
8,5% 7,4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Distributed Energy
Storage
Grid-Tied
Microgrids
EV Charging Load DR Distributed
Generation
%CAGR
Estimated CAGR, 2016-2025
World
NAM
DER Growth - public policies, RE + Storage market
World: DER installed capacity estimated at >100GW projected to grow at 11%
Europe: Demand Response readiness
Europe: Annual Installations of Residential PV Storage Systems
4

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World: probability of Near Term DER Mgt Needs
= Grid Parity + Access to Capital
5
39,7%
26,9% 23,9% 20,6%
6,5%
28,5%
15,9%
24,8%
8,5% 7,4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Distributed Energy
Storage
Grid-Tied
Microgrids
EV Charging Load DR Distributed
Generation
%CAGR
Estimated CAGR, 2016-2025
World
NAM
DER Growth - public policies, RE + Storage market
World: DER installed capacity estimated at >100GW projected to grow at 11%
Europe: Demand Response readiness
UK, Switz, NL GER, US, UK, Australia, Italy
5

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DER Growth – Challenges to Utilities
6
• RE intermittency, unpredictability challenge to
Power balance
• Require Up to 500 KUSD/day ramping
conventional reserve
• Backfeeds, voltage control issues
• Require grid reinforcement
• Unpredictability increases risks of penalties paid to TSO
TSO – Need more reserve marginCustomer ChallengesDSO – Need grid reinforcement, Ops costs

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> 110 KV
50-110 KV
10-50 KV
10-0,4 KV
National Transmission
Grid (TSO)
Local Distribution Grid
(DSO)
DSO has to make T-
forecasts for all their
Substations connected to
the National Grid
Parties with a Connection
capacity > 2 MW have to
deliver DSO a T-forecast
For all other connection points DSO will
use estimates to determine how the
energy demand is geographically
dispersed. A 7 days forecast is
aggregated up to TSO level.

8. CONFIDENTIAL. GE’s GRID SOLUTION 2015. All rights
reserved.
T-Forecast > Forecasts Computation
8
T-Forecast – Forecast computation and
management
• Near real-time insights of the Transport Capacity at
the Substation connected with the TSO
• Secured platform to compute forecasts of loads at
Substation level
• Interface with 3rd party GIS, HIS, BRP data gateway
• A path for future market interactions, e.g. using
flexibility for congestion management
Challenges addressed
GE’s solutions to these challenges
Value proposition
Predicting loads on the Substation
(110KV) level, including BRP forecast
Predicting the loadflows within all
DSO Grid-levels
Provide near real-time insights of the Transport Capacity at the Substation connected with the TSO, preparing the DSO to future
market interactions such as using flexibility for congestion management.
T-Forecast – Phase 1

9. CONFIDENTIAL. GE’s GRID SOLUTION 2015. All rights
reserved.Smart Grid Pilot Projects in EME | 07 Dec 2015 9

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