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Enhancement to the TIMES Source Code: Enabling REGIONS and TIME-SLICES to be defined per period

IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAP

Enhancement to the TIMES Source Code: Enabling REGIONS and TIME-SLICES to be defined per period Dr James Glynn, University College Cork

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Proposal for an enhancement to the TIMES Source Code:
Enabling REGIONS and TIME-SLICES to be defined per period
Dr James Glynn
PhD, M.Sc., M.A. (Econ), B.Eng.
Research Fellow at MaREI, SFI Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine | School Fellow at UCC School of Engineering
@james_glynn (Twitter) | james.glynn@ucc.ie | IEA-ETSAP Workshop | 16th December 2020
Summary
• Propose to enhance the TIMES Source code to enabling defining regions
and time slices by period;
• Nesting spatial and temporal resolution in the TIMES source code and VEDA.2.0 to
enable parametric scaling for exploration of structural uncertainty
• Project partners
• James Glynn (MaREI-UCC)
• Evangelos Panos (PSI),
• Antti Lehtila (VTT),
• Amit Kanudia (Kanors).
• Requested Budget: €55,000 over January – December 2021
Introduction | Context
• Increasingly new spatio-temporally
granular data sets available that are useful
for energy system model development.
• TIMES is a flexible framework that could
take advantage of individual unit process
dynamics and incorporate their geospatial
dimension with high temporal resolution in
a TIMES reference energy system.
• Spatially; there are TIMES models
developed at the city level and up to the
global level.
• Temporally; there are sub-national TIMES
models running at hourly resolution.
• However, there is a need to integrate high
temporal and spatial resolution into in
specific time periods and locations in
conjunction with more aggregated
structures within a TIMES model time
horizon for multiple reasons.
Innovation & Enhancement
• Enabling “ZOOMING” in on temporal,
technical and spatial dimensions in the
near term for medium term policy accuracy
such as NDCs to 2030 with more
aggregated resolution in the uncertain
medium to long term
• Enables more accurate representation of
Local Air Pollution where spatial intensity
of emissions matters to estimating health
damages
• Enables capturing constraints from climate
impacts, variations and extremes
• Enables exploring structural uncertainty in
the spatial and temporal dimension of our
models
• Will enable larger complex models to run
faster by only having technical complexity
where desired in space and time and thus
reducing the solution matrix size
2020 SSP5-RCP8.5
Daily wind speeds
Figure 1.1: Non-zero entries (black
dots) in an exemplary coefficient
matrix A of an integrated ESOM with
linking variables (grey area at the left),
linking constraints grey area at the
bottom e.g. unit commitment
constraints) and independent blocks
(colored blocks - REGIONS).
Proposal
• In this project we propose to enhance the TIMES source code to allow
time varying nested regional definitions alongside already tested and
implemented time slice (TS) definition per period.
• This will enable TIMES modelers to model with higher spatial and
temporal resolution in the short term while varying spatial and temporal
resolution in the long term.
Figure 1: Possible mappings. The user defines three main
regions REG1, REG2 and REG3 (Table A), and the milestone
years (Table B) using existing structures of VEDA_FE. The
region REG1 is further disaggregated to subregions S_REG11,
S_REG12 and S_REG13. The mapping between regions and
subregions is given in Table C, while the mapping of the active
regions in each period is given in Table D. These new tables
need to be also supported in TIMES/VEDA
Figure 2: Time-dependent definition of crossborder flows.
The figure shows that REG1 connects via its subregion
S_REG1 with the region REG2, while there is also a link
between REG2 and REG3. The subregions of region REG1 also
exchange energy carriers. Thus, in 2020, the interregional
flows are within the subregions of REG1, between S_REG11
and REG2 and between REG2 and REG3. In contrast, in 2030,
the energy trade is defined among the overarching regions
REG1, REG2 and REG3, as we do not define higher spatial
resolution for REG1 in this year
Work-packages
• WP1- Detailed mathematical formulation design and agreement (James & Evangelos)
• This work package will design the algebraic mathematical formulation to achieve the desired functionality as outlined
previously.
• This design will be reviewed and agreed upon before progressing to WP2 with a complete implementation design.
• Milestone 1 – complete mathematical formulation & design [GO; NO-Go decision on implementation feasibility.]
• WP2: Extend TIMES code to support regional aggregation/disaggregation of constraints and bounds (Antti)
• This work package with translate the mathematical formulation from WP1 into the TIMES source code in GAMS. A demo
model will be developed and tested. Implementation documentation will be produced within this work package
• WP3: Enabling definitions of regions across different temporal and spatial scales in VEDA_FE database
(Amit)
• This work package will be required to incorporate parametric multiregional definitions into VEDA2.
• WP4: Testing the new VEDA_FE interface support and TIMES code (James/Evangelos)
• The new functionality will be validated and tested using multiregional models from UCC and PSI. PSI has already
developed the EUSTEM model which is flexible in the definition of regions and time slices, and at the same time it can be
scaled up across both dimensions. Moreover, interested ETSAP partners outside of the consortium will be given the
opportunity to test the new features after the first successful experiments with the UCC and PSI models.
• Deliverables: An updated TIMES Source code, documentation, a project report, and application using a
multiregional TIMES model.
• Time schedule: 12 months January – December 2021

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Enhancement to the TIMES Source Code: Enabling REGIONS and TIME-SLICES to be defined per period

  • 1. Proposal for an enhancement to the TIMES Source Code: Enabling REGIONS and TIME-SLICES to be defined per period Dr James Glynn PhD, M.Sc., M.A. (Econ), B.Eng. Research Fellow at MaREI, SFI Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine | School Fellow at UCC School of Engineering @james_glynn (Twitter) | james.glynn@ucc.ie | IEA-ETSAP Workshop | 16th December 2020
  • 2. Summary • Propose to enhance the TIMES Source code to enabling defining regions and time slices by period; • Nesting spatial and temporal resolution in the TIMES source code and VEDA.2.0 to enable parametric scaling for exploration of structural uncertainty • Project partners • James Glynn (MaREI-UCC) • Evangelos Panos (PSI), • Antti Lehtila (VTT), • Amit Kanudia (Kanors). • Requested Budget: €55,000 over January – December 2021
  • 3. Introduction | Context • Increasingly new spatio-temporally granular data sets available that are useful for energy system model development. • TIMES is a flexible framework that could take advantage of individual unit process dynamics and incorporate their geospatial dimension with high temporal resolution in a TIMES reference energy system. • Spatially; there are TIMES models developed at the city level and up to the global level. • Temporally; there are sub-national TIMES models running at hourly resolution. • However, there is a need to integrate high temporal and spatial resolution into in specific time periods and locations in conjunction with more aggregated structures within a TIMES model time horizon for multiple reasons.
  • 4. Innovation & Enhancement • Enabling “ZOOMING” in on temporal, technical and spatial dimensions in the near term for medium term policy accuracy such as NDCs to 2030 with more aggregated resolution in the uncertain medium to long term • Enables more accurate representation of Local Air Pollution where spatial intensity of emissions matters to estimating health damages • Enables capturing constraints from climate impacts, variations and extremes • Enables exploring structural uncertainty in the spatial and temporal dimension of our models • Will enable larger complex models to run faster by only having technical complexity where desired in space and time and thus reducing the solution matrix size 2020 SSP5-RCP8.5 Daily wind speeds Figure 1.1: Non-zero entries (black dots) in an exemplary coefficient matrix A of an integrated ESOM with linking variables (grey area at the left), linking constraints grey area at the bottom e.g. unit commitment constraints) and independent blocks (colored blocks - REGIONS).
  • 5. Proposal • In this project we propose to enhance the TIMES source code to allow time varying nested regional definitions alongside already tested and implemented time slice (TS) definition per period. • This will enable TIMES modelers to model with higher spatial and temporal resolution in the short term while varying spatial and temporal resolution in the long term. Figure 1: Possible mappings. The user defines three main regions REG1, REG2 and REG3 (Table A), and the milestone years (Table B) using existing structures of VEDA_FE. The region REG1 is further disaggregated to subregions S_REG11, S_REG12 and S_REG13. The mapping between regions and subregions is given in Table C, while the mapping of the active regions in each period is given in Table D. These new tables need to be also supported in TIMES/VEDA Figure 2: Time-dependent definition of crossborder flows. The figure shows that REG1 connects via its subregion S_REG1 with the region REG2, while there is also a link between REG2 and REG3. The subregions of region REG1 also exchange energy carriers. Thus, in 2020, the interregional flows are within the subregions of REG1, between S_REG11 and REG2 and between REG2 and REG3. In contrast, in 2030, the energy trade is defined among the overarching regions REG1, REG2 and REG3, as we do not define higher spatial resolution for REG1 in this year
  • 6. Work-packages • WP1- Detailed mathematical formulation design and agreement (James & Evangelos) • This work package will design the algebraic mathematical formulation to achieve the desired functionality as outlined previously. • This design will be reviewed and agreed upon before progressing to WP2 with a complete implementation design. • Milestone 1 – complete mathematical formulation & design [GO; NO-Go decision on implementation feasibility.] • WP2: Extend TIMES code to support regional aggregation/disaggregation of constraints and bounds (Antti) • This work package with translate the mathematical formulation from WP1 into the TIMES source code in GAMS. A demo model will be developed and tested. Implementation documentation will be produced within this work package • WP3: Enabling definitions of regions across different temporal and spatial scales in VEDA_FE database (Amit) • This work package will be required to incorporate parametric multiregional definitions into VEDA2. • WP4: Testing the new VEDA_FE interface support and TIMES code (James/Evangelos) • The new functionality will be validated and tested using multiregional models from UCC and PSI. PSI has already developed the EUSTEM model which is flexible in the definition of regions and time slices, and at the same time it can be scaled up across both dimensions. Moreover, interested ETSAP partners outside of the consortium will be given the opportunity to test the new features after the first successful experiments with the UCC and PSI models. • Deliverables: An updated TIMES Source code, documentation, a project report, and application using a multiregional TIMES model. • Time schedule: 12 months January – December 2021
  • 7. Budget • WP1- Detailed mathematical formulation design and agreement • This work package will design the algebraic mathematical formulation to achieve the desired functionality as outlined above. This design will be reviewed and agreed upon before progressing to WP2 with a complete implementation design. • Milestone 1 – complete mathematical formulation & design GO; NO-Go decision on implementation feasibility. • WP2: Extend TIMES code to support regional aggregation/disaggregation of constraints and bounds (Antti) • This work package with translate the mathematical formulation from WP1 into the TIMES source code in GAMS. A demo model will be developed and tested. Implementation documentation will be produced within this work package • WP3: Enabling definitions of regions across different temporal and spatial scales in VEDA_FE database (Amit) • This work package will be required to incorporate parametric multiregional definitions into VEDA2. • WP4: Testing the new VEDA_FE interface support and TIMES code (James/Evangelos) • The new functionality will be validated and tested using multiregional models from UCC and PSI. PSI has already developed the EUSTEM model which is flexible in the definition of regions and time slices, and at the same time it can be scaled up across both dimensions. Moreover, interested ETSAP partners outside of the consortium will be given the opportunity to test the new features after the first successful experiments with the UCC and PSI models. • Deliverables: An updated TIMES Source code, documentation, a project report, and application using a multiregional TIMES model. • Time schedule: 12 months January – December 2021 Work Package Person-days Price Budget WP1- Code review & detailed implementation design and agreement 12 €1,000 €12,000 Milestone 1 – complete mathematical formulation design and plan. Go -No Go decision. (Design confirmed. Remaining project specification & plan agreed.) WP2 - Extend TIMES code to support regional aggregation/disaggregation of constraints and bounds (Antti) 22 €1,000 €22,000 WP3 - Enabling definitions of regions across different temporal and spatial scales in VEDA_FE database (Amit) 5 €1,000 €5,000 WP4 - Testing the new VEDA_FE interface support and TIMES code (James/Evangelos) 16 €1,000 €16,000 Total Budget €55,000
  • 8. Contributing to ANNEX XV • Innovation • This is a source code model development. • This project proposal is a TIMES code development project, and by it’s nature is innovative, cutting edge in enabling the TIMES SrcCode to be used for mutli-scale energy systems modelling optimization. • Benefit to project partners • This project will enable enhancement of the TIMES source code to benefit partners in that will be able to better explore research areas of interest in advanced unit commitment and technology resolution, as well as provide opportunities to explore better representation of local air pollution, demand modelling and climate impacts. • Benefit to the ETSAP community • This proposal will enable the ETSAP community to improve their model detail and flexibility to answer question previously TIMES was not suited to. It will enable further modelling of net zero energy systems and variable renewable energy systems and varying renewable energy resource potentials. • Developing this flexibility also addresses a key structural uncertainty in how all energy system models are developed. • Furthermore, it will enable the ETSAP community to have varying spatial and temporal resolution which will enable complex model representation in one period and less complex resolution in other periods. This will enable the benefit of detailed model complexity of energy system dynamics in the near term; while reducing model complexity in the medium term will reduce the matrix size and reduce solution run time in complex models. • Relevance to the Annex XV topics • Maintenance, update, and improvement of TIMES is the minimum objective of the Annex • Improved modelling of variable renewables and short-term system operational issues in long term energy systems modelling. • Improved modelling of the consumption side of energy systems, demand side flexibility. • Integrating human behavior and societal aspects into energy systems modelling. • Cost effectiveness • This project leverages existing expertise, working relationships and advanced knowledge TIMES, GAMS, data science, and spatial data aggregation methods. It is cost effective use of the teams time and ETSAP budget.
  • 9. v
  • 10. www.marei.ie/project/chimera J.G. is supported by a research grant from Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under the SFI-NSFC Partnership Programme, [Grant no. 17/NSFC/5181] and this work was supported by MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate, and Marine [Grant No: 12/RC/2302_P2]