5. Aswath Damodaran 5
Яагаад харьцангуй үнэлгээ гэж?
“Хэрэв намайг галзуурсан гэж бодож байгаа бол та танхим даяар амьдарч
байгаа хүмүүсийг хар”
Jerry Seinfeld Kramer-ийн тухай Seinfeld-ийн хэсэгт яридаг
“ Бага зэрэг алдаа нь заримдаа маш их зөвтгөх шалтгаан болдог
H.H. Munro
“ If you are going to screw up, make sure that you have lots of company”
Ex-portfolio manager
10. Aswath Damodaran 10
Descriptive Tests
Үржүүлэгчийн дундаж болон стандарт хазайлт нь зах зээлтэй
харьцуулахад ямар байна вэ?
Тархалт нь хэр тэгш бус хэмтэй байна вэ, түүний нөлөө нь ямар байна вэ?
Тархалтын хязгаарын утга хэр их утгатай байна вэ, бид үүнийг хэрхэн
шийдвэрлэх вэ? Хязгаарын
утгыг хасах нь мэдээжийн зүйл мэт боловч хэрэв хязгаарын утгууд бүгд
тархалтын нэг талд байгаа бол энэ нь хазайлттай үнэлгээнд хүргэнэ.
• Capping the outliers is another solution, though the point at which you cap is
arbitrary and can skew results
Үржүүлэгчийг тооцож чадахгүй тохиолдол бий юу? Эдгээр тохиолдлыг
үл ойшоох нь үржүүлэгчийн хазайлттай үнэлгээнд хүргэнэ?
Үржүүлэгч хугацааны явцад хэрхэн өөрчлөгдөж байна вэ?
11. Aswath Damodaran 11
Analytical Tests
Эдгээр үржүүлэгчдийг тодорхойлж жолоодох үндэс суурь нь юу вэ?
• Санал 2: Үржүүлэгч бүрт агуулагдсан бүх хувьсагчид нь хорогдуулсан
мөнгөн урсгалын үнэлгээг жолооддог - өсөлт, эрсдэл ба мөнгөн урсгалын
шинж.
Эдгээр сууриудын өөрчлөлт нь үржүүлэгчийг хэрхэн өөрчлөх вэ?
• Суурь (өсөлт г.м) болон үржүүлэгч (PE г.м)-ийн хоорондын харилцаа нь бараг
хэзээ ч шугаман байдаггүй.
• Санал 3: Хэрэв бид суурь болон үржүүлэгч нь хэрхэн хөдөлдгийг
мэдэхгүй бол компаниудыг үржүүлэгчдээр нь харьцуулах нь боломжгүй
юм.
Equity Multiple or Firm Multiple
Equity Multiple Firm Multiple
1. Start with an equity DCF model (a dividend or FCFE
model)
2. Isolate the denominator of the multiple in the model
3. Do the algebra to arrive at the equation for the multiple
1. Start with a firm DCF model (a FCFF model)
2. Isolate the denominator of the multiple in the model
3. Do the algebra to arrive at the equation for the multiple
14. Aswath Damodaran 14
Price Earnings Ratio: Definition
PE = Market Price per Share / Earnings per Share
There are a number of variants on the basic PE ratio in use. They are based upon how
the price and the earnings are defined.
Price:
• is usually the current price (though some like to use average price over last 6
months or year)
EPS:
• Time variants: EPS in most recent financial year (current), EPS in most recent four
quarters (trailing), EPS expected in next fiscal year or next four quartes (both
called forward) or EPS in some future year
• Primary, diluted or partially diluted
• Before or after extraordinary items
• Measured using different accounting rules (options expensed or not, pension fund
income counted or not…)
18. Aswath Damodaran 18
PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals
To understand the fundamentals, start with a basic equity discounted cash flow
model. With a stable growth dividend discount model:
Dividing both sides by the current earnings per share or forward EPS:
Current EPS Forward EPS
If this had been a FCFE Model,
P0 =
DPS1
r - gn
P0
EPS0
= PE =
Payout Ratio * (1 + gn )
r-gn
P0 =
FCFE1
r - gn
P0
EPS0
= PE =
(FCFE/Earnings)*(1+ gn )
r-gn
P0
EPS1
= PE =
Payout Ratio
r-gn
19. Aswath Damodaran 19
PE Ratio and Fundamentals
Proposition: Other things held equal, higher growth firms will have
higher PE ratios than lower growth firms.
Proposition: Other things held equal, higher risk firms will have lower PE
ratios than lower risk firms
Proposition: Other things held equal, firms with lower reinvestment needs
will have higher PE ratios than firms with higher reinvestment rates.
Of course, other things are difficult to hold equal since high growth firms, tend
to have risk and high reinvestment rats.
20. Aswath Damodaran 20
The perfect under valued company…
If you were looking for the perfect undervalued asset, it would be one
• With a low PE ratio (it is cheap)
• With high expected growth in earnings
• With low risk (and cost of equity)
• And with high ROE
In other words, it would be cheap with no good reason for being cheap
In the real world, most assets that look cheap on a multiple of earnings basis
deserve to be cheap. In other words, one or more of these variables works
against the company (It has low growth, high risk or a low ROE).
When presented with a cheap stock (low PE), here are the key questions:
• What is the expected growth in earnings?
• What is the risk in the stock?
• How efficiently does this company generate its growth?
21. Aswath Damodaran 21
Example 1: Let’s try some story telling
Comparing PE ratios across firms in a sector
Company Name Trailing PE Expected Growth Standard Dev
Coca-Cola Bottling 29.18 9.50% 20.58%
Molson Inc. Ltd. 'A' 43.65 15.50% 21.88%
Anheuser-Busch 24.31 11.00% 22.92%
Corby Distilleries Ltd. 16.24 7.50% 23.66%
Chalone Wine Group Ltd. 21.76 14.00% 24.08%
Andres Wines Ltd. 'A' 8.96 3.50% 24.70%
Todhunter Int'l 8.94 3.00% 25.74%
Brown-Forman 'B' 10.07 11.50% 29.43%
Coors (Adolph) 'B' 23.02 10.00% 29.52%
PepsiCo, Inc. 33.00 10.50% 31.35%
Coca-Cola 44.33 19.00% 35.51%
Boston Beer 'A' 10.59 17.13% 39.58%
Whitman Corp. 25.19 11.50% 44.26%
Mondavi (Robert) 'A' 16.47 14.00% 45.84%
Coca-Cola Enterprises 37.14 27.00% 51.34%
Hansen Natural Corp 9.70 17.00% 62.45%
22. Aswath Damodaran 22
A Question
You are reading an equity research report on this sector, and the analyst claims
that Andres Wine and Hansen Natural are under valued because they have low
PE ratios. Would you agree?
Yes
No
Why or why not?
24. Aswath Damodaran 24
PE, Growth and Risk
Dependent variable is: PE
R squared = 66.2% R squared (adjusted) = 63.1%
Variable Coefficient SE t-ratio prob
Constant 13.1151 3.471 3.78 0.0010
Growth rate 1.21223 19.27 6.29 ≤ 0.0001
Emerging Market -13.8531 3.606 -3.84 0.0009
Emerging Market is a dummy: 1 if emerging market
0 if not
Predicted PE for Telebras= 13.12 + 1.2122 (7.5) - 13.85 (1) = 8.35
At an actual price to earnings ratio of 8.9, Telebras is slightly overvalued.
26. Aswath Damodaran 26
Value/Earnings and Value/Cashflow Ratios
While Price earnings ratios look at the market value of equity relative to
earnings to equity investors, Value earnings ratios look at the market value of
the operating assets of the firm (Enterprise value or EV) relative to operating
earnings or cash flows.
EV = Market value of equity + Debt – Cash
The form of value to cash flow ratios that has the closest parallels in DCF
valuation is the ratio of Firm value to Free Cash Flow to the Firm.
• FCFF = EBIT (1-t) - Net Cap Ex - Change in WC
In practice, what we observe more commonly are firm values as multiples of
operating income (EBIT), after-tax operating income (EBIT (1-t)) or
EBITDA.
27. Aswath Damodaran 27
Enterprise Value/EBITDA Multiple
The Classic Definition
The No-Cash Version
Value
EBITDA
=
Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt
Earnings before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation
Enterprise Value
EBITDA
=
Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt - Cash
Earnings before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation
31. Aswath Damodaran 31
The Determinants of Value/EBITDA Multiples: Linkage to
DCF Valuation
The value of the operating assets of a firm can be written as:
The numerator can be written as follows:
FCFF = EBIT (1-t) - (Cex - Depr) - Working Capital
= (EBITDA - Depr) (1-t) - (Cex - Depr) - Working Capital
= EBITDA (1-t) + Depr (t) - Cex - Working Capital
EV0 =
FCFF1
WACC - g
32. Aswath Damodaran 32
From Firm Value to EBITDA Multiples
Now the value of the firm can be rewritten as,
Dividing both sides of the equation by EBITDA,
Since Reinvestment = (CEx – Depreciation + Working Capital), the
determinants of EV/EBITDA are:
• The cost of capital
• Expected growth rate
• Tax rate
• Reinvestment rate (or ROC)
33. Aswath Damodaran 33
A Simple Example
Consider a firm with the following characteristics:
• Tax Rate = 36%
• Capital Expenditures/EBITDA = 30%
• Depreciation/EBITDA = 20%
• Cost of Capital = 10%
• The firm has no working capital requirements
• The firm is in stable growth and is expected to grow 5% a year forever.
34. Aswath Damodaran 34
Calculating Value/EBITDA Multiple
In this case, the Value/EBITDA multiple for this firm can be estimated as
follows:
Value
EBITDA
=
(1- .36)
.10 -.05
+
(0.2)(.36)
.10 -.05
-
0.3
.10 - .05
-
0
.10 - .05
= 8.24
35. Aswath Damodaran 35
The Determinants of EV/EBITDA
Tax
Rates Reinvestment
Needs
Excess
Returns
38. Aswath Damodaran 38
Price-Book Value Ratio: Definition
The price/book value ratio is the ratio of the market value of equity to the
book value of equity, i.e., the measure of shareholders’ equity in the balance
sheet.
Price/Book Value = Market Value of Equity
Book Value of Equity
Extending this multiple to cover broader measures of value, we get
Value/ Book = (Market Value of Equity+ Debt)
(Book Value of Equity + Debt)
EV/ Invested Capital= (Market Value of Equity+ Debt - Cash)
(Book Value of Equity + Debt – Cash))
41. Aswath Damodaran 41
Price Book Value Ratio: Stable Growth Firm
Going back to a simple dividend discount model,
Defining the return on equity (ROE) = EPS0 / Book Value of Equity, the value of equity
can be written as:
If the return on equity is based upon expected earnings in the next time period, this can
be simplified to,
P0 =
DPS1
r - gn
P0 =
BV0 * ROE * Payout Ratio * (1 + gn )
r-gn
P0
BV 0
= PBV =
ROE * Payout Ratio * (1 + gn )
r-gn
P0
BV 0
= PBV =
ROE * Payout Ratio
r-gn
42. Aswath Damodaran 42
Price Book Value Ratio: Stable Growth Firm
Another Presentation
This formulation can be simplified even further by relating growth to the
return on equity:
g = (1 - Payout ratio) * ROE
Substituting back into the P/BV equation,
The price-book value ratio of a stable firm is determined by the differential
between the return on equity and the required rate of return on its projects.
P0
BV0
= PBV =
ROE - gn
r-gn
43. Aswath Damodaran 43
Looking for undervalued securities - PBV Ratios and ROE
Given the relationship between price-book value ratios and returns on equity,
it is not surprising to see firms which have high returns on equity selling for
well above book value and firms which have low returns on equity selling at
or below book value.
The firms which should draw attention from investors are those which provide
mismatches of price-book value ratios and returns on equity - low P/BV ratios
and high ROE or high P/BV ratios and low ROE.
44. Aswath Damodaran 44
An Eyeballing Exercise:
European Banks in 2010
Name PBV Ratio Return on Equity Standard Deviation
BAYERISCHE HYPO-UND VEREINSB 0.80 -1.66% 49.06%
COMMERZBANK AG 1.09 -6.72% 36.21%
DEUTSCHE BANK AG -REG 1.23 1.32% 35.79%
BANCA INTESA SPA 1.66 1.56% 34.14%
BNP PARIBAS 1.72 12.46% 31.03%
BANCO SANTANDER CENTRAL HISP 1.86 11.06% 28.36%
SANPAOLO IMI SPA 1.96 8.55% 26.64%
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTA 1.98 11.17% 18.62%
SOCIETE GENERALE 2.04 9.71% 22.55%
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP 2.09 20.22% 18.35%
HBOS PLC 2.15 22.45% 21.95%
BARCLAYS PLC 2.23 21.16% 20.73%
UNICREDITO ITALIANO SPA 2.30 14.86% 13.79%
KREDIETBANK SA LUXEMBOURGEOI 2.46 17.74% 12.38%
ERSTE BANK DER OESTER SPARK 2.53 10.28% 21.91%
STANDARD CHARTERED PLC 2.59 20.18% 19.93%
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC 2.94 18.50% 19.66%
LLOYDS TSB GROUP PLC 3.33 32.84% 18.66%
Average 2.05 12.54% 24.99%
Median 2.07 11.82% 21.93%
45. Aswath Damodaran 45
The median test…
We are looking for stocks that trade at low price to book ratios, while
generating high returns on equity, with low risk. But what is a low price to
book ratio? Or a high return on equity? Or a low risk
One simple measure of what is par for the sector are the median values for
each of the variables. A simplistic decision rule on under and over valued
stocks would therefore be:
• Undervalued stocks: Trade at price to book ratios below the median for the
sector,(2.05), generate returns on equity higher than the sector median (11.82%)
and have standard deviations lower than the median (21.93%).
• Overvalued stocks: Trade at price to book ratios above the median for the sector
and generate returns on equity lower than the sector median.
46. Aswath Damodaran 46
How about this mechanism?
We are looking for stocks that trade at low price to book ratios, while
generating high returns on equity. But what is a low price to book ratio? Or a
high return on equity?
Taking the sample of 18 banks, we ran a regression of PBV against ROE and
standard deviation in stock prices (as a proxy for risk).
PBV = 2.27 + 3.63 ROE - 2.68 Std dev
(5.56) (3.32) (2.33)
R squared of regression = 79%
52. Aswath Damodaran 52
Price Sales Ratio: Definition
The price/sales ratio is the ratio of the market value of equity to the sales.
Price/ Sales=
Consistency Tests
• The price/sales ratio is internally inconsistent, since the market value of equity is
divided by the total revenues of the firm.
Market value of equity
Revenues
54. Aswath Damodaran 54
Price/Sales Ratio: Determinants
The price/sales ratio of a stable growth firm can be estimated beginning with a
2-stage equity valuation model:
Dividing both sides by the sales per share:
P0 =
DPS1
r - gn
P0
Sales0
= PS=
Net Profit Margin* Payout Ratio*(1+ gn )
r-gn
55. Aswath Damodaran 55
Price Sales Ratios and Profit Margins
The key determinant of price-sales ratios is the profit margin.
A decline in profit margins has a two-fold effect.
• First, the reduction in profit margins reduces the price-sales ratio directly.
• Second, the lower profit margin can lead to lower growth and hence lower price-
sales ratios.
Expected growth rate = Retention ratio * Return on Equity
= Retention Ratio *(Net Profit / Sales) * ( Sales / BV of Equity)
= Retention Ratio * Profit Margin * Sales/BV of Equity
57. Aswath Damodaran 57
EV/Sales Ratios: Analysis of Determinants
If pre-tax operating margins are used, the appropriate value estimate is that of
the firm. In particular, if one makes the assumption that
• Free Cash Flow to the Firm = EBIT (1 - tax rate) (1 - Reinvestment Rate)
Then the Value of the Firm can be written as a function of the after-tax
operating margin= (EBIT (1-t)/Sales
g = Growth rate in after-tax operating income for the first n years
gn = Growth rate in after-tax operating income after n years forever (Stable growth
rate)
RIRGrowth, Stable = Reinvestment rate in high growth and stable periods
WACC = Weighted average cost of capital
Value
Sales0
= After - tax Oper. Margin *
(1 - RIRgrowth)(1 + g)* 1-
(1 +g)
n
(1+ WACC)n
æ
è
ç
ö
ø
÷
WACC - g
+
(1- RIRstable)(1 + g)n
*(1+ gn )
(WACC - gn )(1+ WACC)n
é
ë
ê
ê
ê
ê
ù
û
ú
ú
ú
ú
58. Aswath Damodaran 58
EV/Sales Ratio: An Example with Coca Cola
Consider, for example, the Value/Sales ratio of Coca Cola. The company had
the following characteristics:
After-tax Operating Margin =18.56% Sales/BV of Capital = 1.67
Return on Capital = 1.67* 18.56% = 31.02%
Reinvestment Rate= 65.00% in high growth; 20% in stable growth;
Expected Growth = 31.02% * 0.65 =20.16% (Stable Growth Rate=6%)
Length of High Growth Period = 10 years
Cost of Equity =12.33% E/(D+E) = 97.65%
After-tax Cost of Debt = 4.16% D/(D+E) 2.35%
Cost of Capital= 12.33% (.9765)+4.16% (.0235) = 12.13%
Value of Firm0
Sales0
=.1856*
(1- .65)(1.2016)* 1-
(1.2016)
10
(1.1213)10
æ
è
ç
ö
ø
÷
.1213- .2016
+
(1- .20)(1.2016)10
* (1.06)
(.1213- .06)(1.1213)10
é
ë
ê
ê
ê
ê
ù
û
ú
ú
ú
ú
= 6.10
60. Aswath Damodaran 60
Brand Name Premiums in Valuation
You have been hired to value Coca Cola for an analyst reports and you have
valued the firm at 6.10 times revenues, using the model described in the last
few pages. Another analyst is arguing that there should be a premium added
on to reflect the value of the brand name. Do you agree?
Yes
No
Explain.
61. Aswath Damodaran 61
Valuing Brand Name
Coca Cola With Cott Margins
Current Revenues = $21,962.00 $21,962.00
Length of high-growth period 10 10
Reinvestment Rate = 50% 50%
Operating Margin (after-tax) 15.57% 5.28%
Sales/Capital (Turnover ratio) 1.34 1.34
Return on capital (after-tax) 20.84% 7.06%
Growth rate during period (g) = 10.42% 3.53%
Cost of Capital during period = 7.65% 7.65%
Stable Growth Period
Growth rate in steady state = 4.00% 4.00%
Return on capital = 7.65% 7.65%
Reinvestment Rate = 52.28% 52.28%
Cost of Capital = 7.65% 7.65%
Value of Firm = $79,611.25 $15,371.24
Value of brand name = $79,611 -$15,371 = $64,240 million
While we can rail about the fact that a valuation based upon multiples is not as detailed as a discounted cashflow valuation,, the reality is that analysts will continue to use multiples to value companies and that we will often have to use these valuations.
Given this reality, we have to think about how best to use multiples. These four steps represent a way in which we can deconstruct any multiple, understand how to use it well and discover when it is being misused.
Consistent definition:
Consider two widely used multiples that are consistently defined. In the price-earnings ratio (PE), the numerator is equity value per share and the denominator is equity earnings per share. In the enterprise value/ EBITDA multiple, the numerator is firm value and the denominator is a pre-tax cash flow to all claimholders in the firm. In contrast, the price to EBITDA multiple is inconsistent. Why is this a problem? If you are comparing firms with different debt ratios, the firms will more debt will look cheaper on a price to EBITDA basis.
Uniformally Estimated:
This is actually much more difficult than it looks. Even if accounting standards are the same across firms, you run into two problems:
The degree to which firms bend accounting rules for their own purposes varies across firms. Some firms are inherently more conservative in reporting earnings than others.
The financial year ends at different points for different firms. If the denominator is the earnings in the most recent financial year, the multiple may not be comparable if some firms have December year-ends and some have June year-ends.
Before you use a multiple and develop rules of thumb (8 times EBITDA is cheap), you need to get a sense of the cross-sectional distribution.
Multiples have skewed distributions. Because a multiple cannot be less than zero but can potentially be infinite, the averages for multiples will be much higher than their medians, and the difference will increase as the outliers become larger. Many services cap outliers to prevent them from altering the averages too much, results…
The PE ratio cannot be estimated when the earnings per share are negative. Thus, if you have a sample of 20 firms and 10 have negative earnings, you will be able to compute the PE ratio for only the 10 that have positive earnings and will throw out the remaining firms. This will induce a bias in your sample. One way to avoid this is to take the cumulative values for market capitalization and net income for all 20 firms, and compute a PE ratio based upon the cumulated values. The resulting PE ratio will generally be much higher….
Behind every multiple (PE of 22, Value to EBITDA of 9) are implicit assumptions about growth, risk and cash flows.. In fact, you make the same assumptions when you use multiples that you make in discounted cashflow valuation.. The difference is that your assumptions are explicit in the latter. The first step in understanding a multiple is determining its fundamental drives…
Not only is it important that you find the drivers for each multiple, but you need to understand how changes in these drivers change the multiple. For example, we all accept the intuition that a company with a 20% growth rate should have a higher PE than an otherwise similar company with a 10% growth rate, but how much higher? Twice as high (which would make the relationship linear), 2.5 times as high, 1.5 times as high…
In practice, we all too often define comparable as a firm in the same industry or business. This is too narrow a definition. You can have firms in different businesses that have similar cashflow, growth and risk characteristics. These firms can be viewed as comparable firms.
You will never find two identical firms, no matter how hard you search. You therefore have to always control for the residual differences when making comparisons.
This is only the tip of the iceberg. You can have EPS before and after extraordinary items, primary and diluted EPS..
When you are negotiating with someone else and you are both using PE ratios to make your case, the first step is to make sure that you are using the same PE ratio.
There is also the tendency on the part of analysts to pick the definition of pE that best fits their biases. For instance, bullish analysts in the 1990s almost always used forward PE whereas bearish analysts used trailing PE. Since earnings were rising the former were generally much lower than the latter.
This graph for all U.S. firms with data available on the Value Line dataset (contains about 7200 firms in the overall sample). Notice that the distributions are skewed to the left and that we have capped the PE ratios at 100….
Four things to note…
Notice the number of firms that we have lost in the sample as we compute PE ratios.
You lose even more firms as you go to forward PE, because you need analyst estimates of expected earnings per share to compute this. Any firms not followed by analysts will not have a forward PE…
The means were computed without capping the PE ratios… the outliers (notice the maximum values for the ratios) push the average to almost twice the median.
The median forward PE is higher than the trailing PE which is higher than the current PE…
This compares the percentages of firms in each market that trade in each PE ratio class… Some interesting differences:
More emerging market companies trade at very low PE ratios (less than 8) than European or US companies
More emerging market companies also trade at very high multiples of earnings.
The median PE ratio is lowest in emerging markets, reflecting the effect of country risk on PE.
To get to the heart of equity multiples, we start with an equity DCF model. In this case, we consider the simplest equity valuation model - a stable growth dividend discount model. Restated in terms of the PE ratio, we find that the PE ratio fo a stable growth firm can be written in terms of three variables:
The expected growth rate in earnings per share
The riskiness of the equity, which determines the cost of equity
The efficiency with which the firm generates growth, which is measured by how much the firm can pay out or afford to pay out after reinvested to create the growth.
At first sight, the second proposition may seem counter intuitive. After all, riskiest firms often have the highest PE ratios. The answer lies, of course, in the reality that firms with high risk also tend to have high growth, and growth usually trumps risk….
Notice that while we consider this to be an industry group, these are very different firms in terms of expected growth and size.
No. Andres Wine has one of the lowest expected growth rates of the firms in the group, which may explain the low PE ratio. Hansen Natural has a high growth rate but it also is the riskiest firm in the group, which may explain its low PE ratio. In other words, not all firms with low PE ratios are under valued. They may be low-growth, high-risk companies…
In this sample, note that some of the firms in the sample are emerging market firms any may be exposed to more risk (political risk, economic risk, inflation risk…)
Higher growth telecomm companies have higher PE ratios..
One way to read this regression: If you have two companies - one with a growth rate of 10% and one with a growth rate of 20%, the latter should have a PE that is 12.1 higher..
If the firm happens to be an emerging market firm, though, you would expect its PE ratio to be 13.85 lower than a firm with similar growth in a developed market.
In contrast to price multiples, you look at firm or enterprise value when you compute value multiples. Firm value is the market value of equity + market value of debt. Enterprise value = Firm value - cash. Why would you use one as opposed to the other? When we compute value to earnings multiples, the earnings that are used tend to be operating earnings (EBIT, EBITDA etc.). Since the income from cash and marketable securities is not included in operating income, we exclude it from the numerator as well.
The most logical denominator for enterprise value is the free cashflow to the firm, which is the cashflow prior to debt payments but after taxes and reinvestment needs.
The problem with using firm value is that cash is included in the numerator but not in the denominator. That is why the enterprise value version makes more sense…
A broad problem is posed when firms have holdings in other firms. If such holdings are passive, Value to EBITDA multiples will be overstated, since the numerator will include the value of your holdings, while the EBITDA will not include any of the income from these holdings. If such holdings are majority active and consolidated, the value to EBITDA will be understated because the numerator will include only the portion of the equity you own in the subsidiary but the EBITDA will include all of the EBITDA in the subsidiary.
The safest thing to do (assuming you can do this) is to net out the market value of your holdings from the numerator (for both active and passive holdings) and the EBITDA of your holdings from the denominator ( for majority active holdings)
As with the other multiples, a heavily skewed distribution. Suggests that the rule of thumb that is often used by Wall Street (EBITDA multiple less than 8 is cheap) should be used with caution.
Distribution looks very similar to the distribution in the US…
Rules of thumb have to adapt to data… Fixed rules of thumb work sometimes and not at others…
To delve into the fundamentals that determine EBITDA multiples, we return to a FCFF valuation model. We keep things simple by using a stable growth model.
The enterprise value to EbITDA multiple is a function of
The tax rate: Higher tax rates -> Lower multiple
Net Capital Expenditures and reinvestment (for any given growth rate): Higher net cap ex and reinvestment -> Lower multiple
Cost of capital: Higher cost of capital -> Lower multiple
Growth: Lower growth -> Lower multiple
A hypothetical firm. Note that I am making assumptions about the reinvestment rate and growth rate. Implicitly, I am also making assumptions about the return on capital. In fact, I am assuming (whether I want to or not) that my return on capital will be 25.60%. Note that the return on capital implied in this growth rate can be calculated as follows:
g = ROC * Reinvestment Rate
.05 = ROC * Net Cap Ex/EBIT (1-t)
= ROC * (.30-.20)/[(1-.2)(1-.36)]
Solving for ROC, ROC = 25.60%
If this firm were fairly valued, it should trade at 8.24 times EBITDA.
Trucking companies have fleets that they replace every few years. Thus, the capital expenditures for these firms are often discontinuous, with a year of very heavy cap ex followed by a few years of almost no cap ex…
It could well be that Ryder Systems has the oldest fleet in this group. In that case, the firm may look cheap right now but it will soon have to make a large capital expenditure to replace the fleet.
(While cap ex is discontinuous, depreciation and amortization are smoothed out…)
Your definitions of equity in the numerator and denominator should be consistent… this may require the breaking down of book equity if there are multiple classes of shares outstanding.
If you have a class of shares that is non-traded, you have two choices. You can ignore this in computing market equity and take out a proportional shares of the book equity. Alternatively, you can estimate a value for the non-traded shares and add them to the market value of traded shares to arrive at a total market value of equity. It is generally not a good idea to include preferred stock in either the numerator or denominator.
The median is about half the mean… You do lose some firms (those with negative book equity) but not as many as you do with earnings multiples.
A larger portion of stocks trade at below book value in Europe than do in the United States. An even large proportion trade at below book value in emerging markets, but there are also far more outliers with very high PBV ratios.
Following a familiar route.. The price to book ratio is an equity multiple and you go back to an equity valuation model…
The price to book ratio is determined by the three variables that determine the PE ratio (growth, payout and risk) and one variable that is unique to it (the return on equity)
Every multiple has one variable that can be considered its key determinant - its companion variable, so to speak. For PE, it was growth.. For Value/EBITDA, it was the reinvestment rate. For price to book, it is return on equity.
Restates the price to book in terms of excess returns.. Firms that earn excess returns (on equity) will trade at high price to book ratios… If the return on equity is estimated using the expected earnings next year, the two equations will converge.. Otherwise, the first equation will be higher by a factor (1+g)….
Most companies that trade at high price to book or low price to book deserve to trade at those multiples. The mismatches matter…
Allows us to compare banks with very different returns on equity and quantify the likely impact on price to book ratios.
Presents the mismatches in a matrix. You want to buy stocks in lower right quadrant and sell the stocks in the upper left quadrant… A hedge fund?
Looks at the 100 largest market cap firms in the United States… Shows how strong the link is between price to book and return on equity. With a 90% confidence interval, a handful of stocks fall outside the range, but there may be good reasons for each:
The two stocks that fall below the undervalued line are MO (Altria or Philip Morris) and FNMA (because of recent accounting and management scandals.
Above the overvalued line are the high flyers - EBAY, Dell, SAP where presumable investors expect the return on equity to climb over time and high growth to continue…
Risk does not seem to matter much, ROE a great deal and growth somewhat in explaining PBV differences across large US companies.
The problem with this ratio is that revenues belong to the entire firm rather than just the equity investors in the firm.
Perhaps the most skewed of all multiples….
The key determinant of the price to sales ratio is the net margin.. The other 3 determinants - payout, growth and cost of equity - are common to all equity multiples.
As net margins change, the price to sales ratio will often change more than proportionately because of the effect on expected growth.
As net margin changes, holding the Sales/BV of Equity ratio constant, the price to sales ratio will also change. Note that the growth will change with the net margin.
The determinants of the value to sales ratio mirror the determinants of the price to sales ratio:
Price to Sales ratio -> Value to Sales Ratio
Net Margin (Net Income/Sales) Operating Margin (EBIT(1-t)/Sales
Payout ratio 1 - Reinvestment Rate
Cost of equity Cost of capital
Growth rate in Net Income Growth ate in Operating income
Valuation is from 1999….The high operating margin translates into high return on capital which generates high growth (during the growth period) and a low reinvestment rate (in stable growth). 6.10 times revenues is a fair value for Coca Cola.
The operating margin is the key determinant of the value to sales ratio…. Again, the effect is at two levels - the direct effect of changing margins on revenue multiples and the indirect effect is on growth.
No. If you do the valuation right, the brand name premium is already built into the valuation in the margin, growth and return on capital. Of course, it is possible that the brand name is not being fully utilized by a firm. But you could say that about any asset. The premium then is for control and not for the brand name.
In the first column, Coca Cola is valued with its current characteristics - high margins, high returns, reasonably high growth - all of which can be traced to its brand name power. In the second column, we revalued Coke using the margins of a generic manufacturer (Cott). The ripple effects of the lower margins can be seen in lower return on capital (margin * sales to cap ratio) and lower growth. The net effect is a almost an 80% drop in value. That is the value of the brand name.
Alternative approaches:
Coke’s ROC = Generic ROC (instead of magins)
If no generic companies exist, the industry average can be used as a base to get a measure of relative brand name value.