The role of evidence in disaster risk reduction - and the impact of research.

1. An accident in
front of the mirror
with Occam's razor*
*Entia non sunt
multiplicanda
præter
necessitatem
David Alexander
University College London

2. Wisdom: ability to take decisions
on the basis of principles,
experience and knowledge
Knowledge: understanding of how
things function (or should function)
Information: description of
physical and social situations
Data: basic facts and statistics
COMMUNICATION
Source: Yi-Fu Tuan..?

3. Carl Hempel
Karl Popper
Confirmation
Observation
Hypothesis
Theory Deduction
TheoryInduction
Tentative
hypothesis
Pattern
Observation

4. An evidence
base for
everything

5. Knowledge, preparedness and
action will reduce losses

6. Robert Mallet and
evidence-based seismology

7. Evidence can be:-
• precise
• decisive
• equivocal
• ambiguous
• puzzling
• uninterpretable
(evidence of what?)
• ignored
• distorted
• used selectively.

8. Evidence is no good without
interpretation - and the ability to
interpret without misleading people.
Evidence can constrain uncertainty,
but cannot eradicate it.
All use of evidence is selective:
the criteria of choice determine
the value of the evidence.
Irregular and trending time series pose
problems for the gathering of evidence.

9. To what extent is evidence a
surrogate for experience?
Is evidence "objective data" or
mere perception of how the world is?
What is the connection
between evidence and wisdom?
How much evidence is enough?
Can we do without evidence?.

10. Impact…

11. • decisions are seldom made on the
basis of evidence and research
• there is a general lack of interest
in disaster risk reduction
• corruption is one of the
principal causes of disaster.
Some home truths about
disaster risk reduction
• the world disaster relief system is
extremely inefficient and in crisis

14. Write strongly.
Write simply.
Avoid jargon.
Reduce technical complexity.
Write to communicate.

15. If you think you're too small to have an
impact, try going to bed with a mosquito.
Anita Roddick
I would like to die on Mars,
just not on impact.
Elon Musk
Impact…

16. Me trasmitte
Caledoni!
Nullum gratuitum prandium – sic fria gratilla!