Presentation at a workshop convened by CCAFS Learning Platform 1 in Rome, Italy, on 19-20 February 2019.

1. Workshop, 19-20 February 2019, Bioversity, Rome
Breeding foresight: exploring
opportunities around climate-smart
breeding for future food and
nutrition security
Photo: G. Smith (CIAT)

2. Partnerships and capacity for scaling CSA
Flagship Program 1 Flagship Program 2 Flagship Program 3 Flagship Program 4
Climate-smart agriculture, gender and social inclusion
CoA 1.3 Enabling policy
environments for CSA
CoA 4.3 Weather-related
agricultural insurance products
and programs
CoA 1.2 Food and nutrition
security futures under
climate change
CoA 2.2 Evidence, investment
planning and application
domains for CSA
technologies and practices
CoA 2.3 Equitable sub-
national adaptation planning
and implementation
CoA 2.4 Business models,
incentives and innovative
finance for scaling CSA
CoA 3.3 Policy, incentives
and finance for scaling up
low emissions practices
CoA 4.4 Climate services
investment planning and
policy
CoA 4.2 Climate information
and advisory services for
agriculture
CoA 3.2 Identifying priorities and
options for low-emissions
development
CoA 1.1 Ex-ante evaluation and
decision support for climate-
smart options
CoA 2.1 Participatory evaluation
of CSA technologies and
practices in CSVs
CoA 4.1 Climate information
and early warning for risk
management
CoA 3.1 Quantifying GHG
emissions from smallholder
systems

3. Five Mechanisms for Cross-CRP
Collaboration and Integration
Impact Pathways
• Integrated regional impact pathways with partners and centres
Learning Platforms
• Research activities on methods, tools and results across CRPs
Climate Change Contact Points
• Information exchange between CCAFS and other CRPs
Project Activity Planning
• Identify links with CRPs, incl. co-investment reporting in MARLO
Internal Learning
• Cross-CRP collaboration, appraisal of Contact Points and Learning Platform
leaders

4. Flagship 1 Strategy
FP1’s aim is to assess how enabling policy environments and priority setting
for targeted investment can support the scaling of interventions,
contributing to food and nutritional security and poverty reduction under
climate change
Objectives:
• improved priority setting, trade-off analyses, and foresight
• improved understanding of effective enabling policy environments
• more evidence as to how CSA at scale can contribute to food & nutrition
security
• effectively informed investment decisions

5. FP1 Impact pathway

6. Flagship 1 portfolio by 2022 target
14 organisations and
institutions in selected
countries/states
adapting plans and
directing investment to
optimize consumption
of diverse nutrient-rich
foods, with all plans
and investments
examined for their
gender implications
20 countries/states
where CCAFS priority
setting is used to
target and implement
interventions to
improve food and
nutrition security
under climate change
USD 450 million of new
investments by state,
national, regional and
global agencies
informed by CCAFS
science
20 organisations and
institutions in selected
countries/states
adapting their plans
and directing
investments to
increase women’s
access to, and control
over, productive assets
and resources to
improve food and
nutrition security
under climate change
11 policy decisions
taken (in part) based
on engagement and
information
dissemination by
CCAFS
CIAT LAM
CIP-IFPRI SEA
IFPRI SA
IITA EA
Utrecht Scenarios
CIAT LAM
CIP-IFPRI SEA
IFPRI SA, Global
ICRISAT WA
LP1 activities
CIAT LAM
CIP-IFPRISEA
IFPRI SA
IFPRI Global
Bioversity EA
CIAT LAM
CIP-IFPRI SEA
IFPRI SA
IITA EA
CIAT LAM
CIP-IFPRI EA
IFPRI global
IITA EA
Utrecht Scenarios
GIZ NDCs
CoA 1.2 CoA 1.1 (LP1) CoA 1.3 GSI Cap Dev

7. Learning Platform 1: Ex-ante evaluation and
decision support for climate-smart options
Objectives
• Address ex-ante evaluation of climate-smart practices, technologies,
policies
• Help set realistic CSA targets
• Interface with CRP breeding programs and foresight modelling
Towards a vision
• Bringing a climate change lens to priority setting, where it adds value
• CSA prioritisation with potential to address perennial questions around the
focus, scope, range, location of CGIAR research activities on CSA
• FP1 2022 milestone: “Tools used to prioritise the next generation of CGIAR
priority investments on climate change adaptation and mitigation”

8. LP1 Activities, outputs
• Agricultural Systems special issue on “Prioritising CSA interventions
at different scales” with authors from 8 Centres & 4 strategic partners
(2017)
• Galway write-shop: journal article escribing a framework for
assessing CSA research and action investments (2018)
• Feed & forage suitability analyses (ILRI, CIAT, NUI Galway, LIVESTOCK)
(2017-2019)
• Seed grant (CCAFS central funds) for a small workshop on climate-
smart breeding (2018-2019)

9. This workshop
Objective
• Identify concrete actions that can add value through linking future
climate modelling and foresight work with commodity breeding
programs to enhance the climate resilience of agricultural systems
Outputs
• Info Note with a stock taking of current foresight and climate-
change-related breeding activities underway across CGIAR and the
key challenges to be addressed through breeding
• An outline plan of work as part of a research strategy for inclusion
in CGIAR’s Special Initiative on Climate Change
• Other?

10. “The underlying need is re-evaluation of the decision-making process about
priorities and investments in CGIAR to incorporate multiple dimensions such as
nutrition and climate resilience” (Defries, SF18 paper)
“… current research investments are mostly associated with the current energy
output of crops. Other things equal, investment levels tend to be slightly lower
for crops better adapted to future climates and tend to decrease as crop nutrient
richness increases” (Manners & an Etten, 2018)
“In summary, climate-smart breeding means we need to do what we already do
but faster, better, and smarter” (Thiele et al., 2017)
The focus is on developing “a series of priority product profiles … which will
contribute maximum impact … to deliver genetic gains in farmers’ fields as
rapidly as possible … to respond to the exigencies of climate change” (Crops to
End Hunger initiative, 2018)

11. There are several frameworks …

12. Priority setting:
which of these
many things
should we be
doing
Foresight:
what may the
world look like
R&D:
getting to the
outputs
needed
Piloting:
under which
conditions are
the outputs
useful
Scaling:
adopting the
outputs
Outcomes:
behavioural
change
Helping to
attain the
SDGs

13. Priority setting:
which of these
many things
should we be
doing
Foresight:
what may the
world look like
R&D:
getting to the
outputs
needed
Piloting:
under which
conditions are
the outputs
useful
Scaling:
adopting the
outputs
Outcomes:
behavioural
change
Helping to
attain the
SDGs
Breeding for
which
conditions and
needs?
Which
varieties,
activities?
Which enablers
(policy, markets,
info etc)?
What
impacts?

14. Foresight
Will current trends continue to 2030:
• Feminisation of agriculture in SSA?
• Continued migration of youth out of the rural areas?
• Some land consolidation, but hundreds of millions of farmers producing
food on shrinking land holdings?
• Increasingly globalised trade, regional trade subject to increasingly
severe production / price fluctuations?
• Private sector and market development?
 How might different combinations of these trends affect breeding
strategies for food and nutrition security in a warmer, more populous
future?

15. And what about future (gene) technology?
Herrero et al. (2019), Technology as an ingredient of food-systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs

16. An output of a write shop at the CCAFS science meeting, Galway, 2017
• A major gap: a framework for assessing CSA research and action
investments
• CSA presents big challenges to priority setting:
• multi-dimensional
• uncertainty of climate impacts
• scale and temporal dependencies that affect the benefits and
costs of CSA adoption
A framework for priority-setting in climate
smart agriculture research

17. Elements in the CSA
priority setting
framework and the
questions to be
addressed
Thornton et al., 2018

18. Suitability of tools and methods in relation to the framework elements
Thornton et al., 2018

19. Case studies on priority setting contributed by the authors at the 2017 workshop
Thornton et al., 2018

20. Different interventions and relation to the prioritisation framework (authors’
estimates)
Thornton et al., 2018

21. Workshop agenda
2b. Centre / CRP updates on ongoing and planned activities on
breeding & breeding foresight
3. Data and tools that are available: CCAFs climate data portal
and other sources of future climate data; models; frameworks
4. Where are the gaps: what’s needed, different crops,
different traits, data, models, analyses
5. Consideration of how food systems may change by 2030;
what are the implications for breeding targets
6. Briefly revisit 4 (gaps) in the light of the discussion in 5.

22. Workshop agenda
7. & 8. Group work (may be in parallel):
• Drafting a short document / Info Note
• Work on text for the Special Initiative on Climate Change
• …
9. Next steps and wrap up

23. A few points
• We’re a small group and we can modify the agenda in ways that are
most collectively useful
• We’re a self-selected group
• From a CCAFS perspective, how can we add value to current and
planned activities?
• An opportunity to shape pieces of proposed Special Initiative on
Climate Change (2022 onwards)
• An opportunity to plan some smaller, shorter-term pieces of work that
can still contribute

24. Extra presentations (remotely) on Tuesday afternoon:
• Marianne Banzinger
• EiB perspectives
• Tim Byrne, AbacusBio
• Working with EiB on new trait prioritization processes including the use of
“One Thousand Minds” software (multi-objective decision support)
A few points

26. This workshop
Objective
• Identify concrete actions that can add value through linking future
climate modelling and foresight work with commodity breeding
programs to enhance the climate resilience of agricultural systems
Outputs
• Info Note with a stock taking of current foresight and climate-
change-related breeding activities underway across CGIAR and the
key challenges to be addressed through breeding
• An outline plan of work as part of a research strategy for inclusion
in CGIAR’s Special Initiative on Climate Change
• Other?

27. Workshop agenda
2a. Introductions, outline of LP1
2b. Centre / CRP updates on ongoing and planned activities on
breeding & breeding foresight
3. Data and tools that are available: CCAFs climate data portal
and other sources of future climate data; models; frameworks
4. Where are the gaps: what’s needed, different crops,
different traits, data, models, analyses
Extra presentations (remotely):
• Marianne Banzinger
• EiB perspectives
• Tim Byrne, AbacusBio
• Working with EiB on new trait prioritization processes including the use of
“One Thousand Minds” software (multi-objective decision support)

28. Workshop agenda
5. Consideration of how food systems may change by 2030;
what are the implications for breeding targets
6. Briefly revisit 4 (gaps) in the light of the discussion in 5.
7. & 8. Group work:
• Drafting a short document / Info Note
• Work on text for the Special Initiative on Climate
Change
• …
9. Next steps and wrap up

29. Data
• Climate model data (variability, spatial / temporal appropriateness, future environments)
• Interoperability of / access to repositories (including trial data, trait preferences,
household data…)
Knowledge
• Future trait preferences (existing, yet-to-be-discovered) of different actors
• Genetic response to future environments (quant, qual)
• Reducing system complexity so it becomes model-tractable
• Effectiveness / efficiency of breeding versus other interventions (value proposition)
Methods
• Homologues+ (climate, soils, farming systems, …)
• Capturing interlinkages horizontally and vertically (scale, substance)
• Impacts of genetic gain (multiple traits)
Behaviour
• More multidisciplinary team approaches (NARS, policy partners)
• Better engagement outside (farmers, seed companies, …) and in (processes to influence
the debate)
• More focus on longer-term outputs (not just quick results)
• Facilitating foresight dialogue linked to decision making that links ex post and ex ante
Key gaps from Tuesday

31. Data
• Climate model data (variability, spatial / temporal appropriateness, future environments)
• Interoperability of / access to repositories (including trial data, trait preferences,
household data…)
Knowledge
• Future trait preferences (existing, yet-to-be-discovered) of different actors
• Genetic response to future environments (quant, qual)
• Reducing system complexity so it becomes model-tractable
• Effectiveness / efficiency of breeding versus other interventions (value proposition)
Methods
• Homologues+ (climate, soils, farming systems, …)
• Capturing interlinkages horizontally and vertically (scale, substance)
• Impacts of genetic gain (multiple traits)
Behaviour
• More multidisciplinary team approaches (NARS, policy partners)
• Better engagement outside (farmers, seed companies, …) and in (processes to influence
the debate)
• More focus on longer-term outputs (not just quick results)
• Facilitating foresight dialogue linked to decision making that links ex post and ex ante
Key gaps

32. Other
• Understanding smallholder development / evolution pathways in relation to breeding
objectives / targets
• Work around dietary diversity – breeding inputs versus other inputs
• Role of new technology (gene methods, alternative foods / feeds, …)
Key gaps

33. Group work
1. From the gaps we’ve identified, are there some things we could (start to)
take on:
• Via students, small amounts of money (like the forage suitability
work in 2017, 2018)
• Opportunities for 100k grants to develop a proof of concept, pilot,
test
• Larger grant opportunities
bullet notes for one or more 2-pagers
2. Bullets for a 4-6 page Info Note on a stock taking of current foresight and
climate-change-related breeding activities underway across CGIAR, and the
“state of play” regarding the key challenges that CG could address through
breeding (links to SRF, SDGs, …)
3. Go through and revise / review Grand Challenge 1 of the Special Initiative
on Climate Change

34. Next steps
(including who and by when)
• Circulate workshop notes for your review, then finalise
• Report to Bruce on the SI-CC grand challenge text
• Info Note
• 2-pagers
Doing a similar kind of workshop in the future?
Linking to the CGIAR foresight report process?