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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by CCAFS Flagship 1

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Presentation at a workshop convened by CCAFS Learning Platform 1 in Rome, Italy, on 19-20 February 2019.

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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by CCAFS Flagship 1

  1. 1. Workshop, 19-20 February 2019, Bioversity, Rome Breeding foresight: exploring opportunities around climate-smart breeding for future food and nutrition security Photo: G. Smith (CIAT)
  2. 2. Partnerships and capacity for scaling CSA Flagship Program 1 Flagship Program 2 Flagship Program 3 Flagship Program 4 Climate-smart agriculture, gender and social inclusion CoA 1.3 Enabling policy environments for CSA CoA 4.3 Weather-related agricultural insurance products and programs CoA 1.2 Food and nutrition security futures under climate change CoA 2.2 Evidence, investment planning and application domains for CSA technologies and practices CoA 2.3 Equitable sub- national adaptation planning and implementation CoA 2.4 Business models, incentives and innovative finance for scaling CSA CoA 3.3 Policy, incentives and finance for scaling up low emissions practices CoA 4.4 Climate services investment planning and policy CoA 4.2 Climate information and advisory services for agriculture CoA 3.2 Identifying priorities and options for low-emissions development CoA 1.1 Ex-ante evaluation and decision support for climate- smart options CoA 2.1 Participatory evaluation of CSA technologies and practices in CSVs CoA 4.1 Climate information and early warning for risk management CoA 3.1 Quantifying GHG emissions from smallholder systems
  3. 3. Five Mechanisms for Cross-CRP Collaboration and Integration Impact Pathways • Integrated regional impact pathways with partners and centres Learning Platforms • Research activities on methods, tools and results across CRPs Climate Change Contact Points • Information exchange between CCAFS and other CRPs Project Activity Planning • Identify links with CRPs, incl. co-investment reporting in MARLO Internal Learning • Cross-CRP collaboration, appraisal of Contact Points and Learning Platform leaders
  4. 4. Flagship 1 Strategy FP1’s aim is to assess how enabling policy environments and priority setting for targeted investment can support the scaling of interventions, contributing to food and nutritional security and poverty reduction under climate change Objectives: • improved priority setting, trade-off analyses, and foresight • improved understanding of effective enabling policy environments • more evidence as to how CSA at scale can contribute to food & nutrition security • effectively informed investment decisions
  5. 5. FP1 Impact pathway
  6. 6. Flagship 1 portfolio by 2022 target 14 organisations and institutions in selected countries/states adapting plans and directing investment to optimize consumption of diverse nutrient-rich foods, with all plans and investments examined for their gender implications 20 countries/states where CCAFS priority setting is used to target and implement interventions to improve food and nutrition security under climate change USD 450 million of new investments by state, national, regional and global agencies informed by CCAFS science 20 organisations and institutions in selected countries/states adapting their plans and directing investments to increase women’s access to, and control over, productive assets and resources to improve food and nutrition security under climate change 11 policy decisions taken (in part) based on engagement and information dissemination by CCAFS CIAT LAM CIP-IFPRI SEA IFPRI SA IITA EA Utrecht Scenarios CIAT LAM CIP-IFPRI SEA IFPRI SA, Global ICRISAT WA LP1 activities CIAT LAM CIP-IFPRISEA IFPRI SA IFPRI Global Bioversity EA CIAT LAM CIP-IFPRI SEA IFPRI SA IITA EA CIAT LAM CIP-IFPRI EA IFPRI global IITA EA Utrecht Scenarios GIZ NDCs CoA 1.2 CoA 1.1 (LP1) CoA 1.3 GSI Cap Dev
  7. 7. Learning Platform 1: Ex-ante evaluation and decision support for climate-smart options Objectives • Address ex-ante evaluation of climate-smart practices, technologies, policies • Help set realistic CSA targets • Interface with CRP breeding programs and foresight modelling Towards a vision • Bringing a climate change lens to priority setting, where it adds value • CSA prioritisation with potential to address perennial questions around the focus, scope, range, location of CGIAR research activities on CSA • FP1 2022 milestone: “Tools used to prioritise the next generation of CGIAR priority investments on climate change adaptation and mitigation”
  8. 8. LP1 Activities, outputs • Agricultural Systems special issue on “Prioritising CSA interventions at different scales” with authors from 8 Centres & 4 strategic partners (2017) • Galway write-shop: journal article escribing a framework for assessing CSA research and action investments (2018) • Feed & forage suitability analyses (ILRI, CIAT, NUI Galway, LIVESTOCK) (2017-2019) • Seed grant (CCAFS central funds) for a small workshop on climate- smart breeding (2018-2019)
  9. 9. This workshop Objective • Identify concrete actions that can add value through linking future climate modelling and foresight work with commodity breeding programs to enhance the climate resilience of agricultural systems Outputs • Info Note with a stock taking of current foresight and climate- change-related breeding activities underway across CGIAR and the key challenges to be addressed through breeding • An outline plan of work as part of a research strategy for inclusion in CGIAR’s Special Initiative on Climate Change • Other?
  10. 10. “The underlying need is re-evaluation of the decision-making process about priorities and investments in CGIAR to incorporate multiple dimensions such as nutrition and climate resilience” (Defries, SF18 paper) “… current research investments are mostly associated with the current energy output of crops. Other things equal, investment levels tend to be slightly lower for crops better adapted to future climates and tend to decrease as crop nutrient richness increases” (Manners & an Etten, 2018) “In summary, climate-smart breeding means we need to do what we already do but faster, better, and smarter” (Thiele et al., 2017) The focus is on developing “a series of priority product profiles … which will contribute maximum impact … to deliver genetic gains in farmers’ fields as rapidly as possible … to respond to the exigencies of climate change” (Crops to End Hunger initiative, 2018)
  11. 11. There are several frameworks …
  12. 12. Priority setting: which of these many things should we be doing Foresight: what may the world look like R&D: getting to the outputs needed Piloting: under which conditions are the outputs useful Scaling: adopting the outputs Outcomes: behavioural change Helping to attain the SDGs
  13. 13. Priority setting: which of these many things should we be doing Foresight: what may the world look like R&D: getting to the outputs needed Piloting: under which conditions are the outputs useful Scaling: adopting the outputs Outcomes: behavioural change Helping to attain the SDGs Breeding for which conditions and needs? Which varieties, activities? Which enablers (policy, markets, info etc)? What impacts?
  14. 14. Foresight Will current trends continue to 2030: • Feminisation of agriculture in SSA? • Continued migration of youth out of the rural areas? • Some land consolidation, but hundreds of millions of farmers producing food on shrinking land holdings? • Increasingly globalised trade, regional trade subject to increasingly severe production / price fluctuations? • Private sector and market development?  How might different combinations of these trends affect breeding strategies for food and nutrition security in a warmer, more populous future?
  15. 15. And what about future (gene) technology? Herrero et al. (2019), Technology as an ingredient of food-systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs
  16. 16. An output of a write shop at the CCAFS science meeting, Galway, 2017 • A major gap: a framework for assessing CSA research and action investments • CSA presents big challenges to priority setting: • multi-dimensional • uncertainty of climate impacts • scale and temporal dependencies that affect the benefits and costs of CSA adoption A framework for priority-setting in climate smart agriculture research
  17. 17. Elements in the CSA priority setting framework and the questions to be addressed Thornton et al., 2018
  18. 18. Suitability of tools and methods in relation to the framework elements Thornton et al., 2018
  19. 19. Case studies on priority setting contributed by the authors at the 2017 workshop Thornton et al., 2018
  20. 20. Different interventions and relation to the prioritisation framework (authors’ estimates) Thornton et al., 2018
  21. 21. Workshop agenda 2b. Centre / CRP updates on ongoing and planned activities on breeding & breeding foresight 3. Data and tools that are available: CCAFs climate data portal and other sources of future climate data; models; frameworks 4. Where are the gaps: what’s needed, different crops, different traits, data, models, analyses 5. Consideration of how food systems may change by 2030; what are the implications for breeding targets 6. Briefly revisit 4 (gaps) in the light of the discussion in 5.
  22. 22. Workshop agenda 7. & 8. Group work (may be in parallel): • Drafting a short document / Info Note • Work on text for the Special Initiative on Climate Change • … 9. Next steps and wrap up
  23. 23. A few points • We’re a small group and we can modify the agenda in ways that are most collectively useful • We’re a self-selected group • From a CCAFS perspective, how can we add value to current and planned activities? • An opportunity to shape pieces of proposed Special Initiative on Climate Change (2022 onwards) • An opportunity to plan some smaller, shorter-term pieces of work that can still contribute
  24. 24. Extra presentations (remotely) on Tuesday afternoon: • Marianne Banzinger • EiB perspectives • Tim Byrne, AbacusBio • Working with EiB on new trait prioritization processes including the use of “One Thousand Minds” software (multi-objective decision support) A few points
  25. 25. This workshop Objective • Identify concrete actions that can add value through linking future climate modelling and foresight work with commodity breeding programs to enhance the climate resilience of agricultural systems Outputs • Info Note with a stock taking of current foresight and climate- change-related breeding activities underway across CGIAR and the key challenges to be addressed through breeding • An outline plan of work as part of a research strategy for inclusion in CGIAR’s Special Initiative on Climate Change • Other?
  26. 26. Workshop agenda 2a. Introductions, outline of LP1 2b. Centre / CRP updates on ongoing and planned activities on breeding & breeding foresight 3. Data and tools that are available: CCAFs climate data portal and other sources of future climate data; models; frameworks 4. Where are the gaps: what’s needed, different crops, different traits, data, models, analyses Extra presentations (remotely): • Marianne Banzinger • EiB perspectives • Tim Byrne, AbacusBio • Working with EiB on new trait prioritization processes including the use of “One Thousand Minds” software (multi-objective decision support)
  27. 27. Workshop agenda 5. Consideration of how food systems may change by 2030; what are the implications for breeding targets 6. Briefly revisit 4 (gaps) in the light of the discussion in 5. 7. & 8. Group work: • Drafting a short document / Info Note • Work on text for the Special Initiative on Climate Change • … 9. Next steps and wrap up
  28. 28. Data • Climate model data (variability, spatial / temporal appropriateness, future environments) • Interoperability of / access to repositories (including trial data, trait preferences, household data…) Knowledge • Future trait preferences (existing, yet-to-be-discovered) of different actors • Genetic response to future environments (quant, qual) • Reducing system complexity so it becomes model-tractable • Effectiveness / efficiency of breeding versus other interventions (value proposition) Methods • Homologues+ (climate, soils, farming systems, …) • Capturing interlinkages horizontally and vertically (scale, substance) • Impacts of genetic gain (multiple traits) Behaviour • More multidisciplinary team approaches (NARS, policy partners) • Better engagement outside (farmers, seed companies, …) and in (processes to influence the debate) • More focus on longer-term outputs (not just quick results) • Facilitating foresight dialogue linked to decision making that links ex post and ex ante Key gaps from Tuesday
  29. 29. Data • Climate model data (variability, spatial / temporal appropriateness, future environments) • Interoperability of / access to repositories (including trial data, trait preferences, household data…) Knowledge • Future trait preferences (existing, yet-to-be-discovered) of different actors • Genetic response to future environments (quant, qual) • Reducing system complexity so it becomes model-tractable • Effectiveness / efficiency of breeding versus other interventions (value proposition) Methods • Homologues+ (climate, soils, farming systems, …) • Capturing interlinkages horizontally and vertically (scale, substance) • Impacts of genetic gain (multiple traits) Behaviour • More multidisciplinary team approaches (NARS, policy partners) • Better engagement outside (farmers, seed companies, …) and in (processes to influence the debate) • More focus on longer-term outputs (not just quick results) • Facilitating foresight dialogue linked to decision making that links ex post and ex ante Key gaps
  30. 30. Other • Understanding smallholder development / evolution pathways in relation to breeding objectives / targets • Work around dietary diversity – breeding inputs versus other inputs • Role of new technology (gene methods, alternative foods / feeds, …) Key gaps
  31. 31. Group work 1. From the gaps we’ve identified, are there some things we could (start to) take on: • Via students, small amounts of money (like the forage suitability work in 2017, 2018) • Opportunities for 100k grants to develop a proof of concept, pilot, test • Larger grant opportunities bullet notes for one or more 2-pagers 2. Bullets for a 4-6 page Info Note on a stock taking of current foresight and climate-change-related breeding activities underway across CGIAR, and the “state of play” regarding the key challenges that CG could address through breeding (links to SRF, SDGs, …) 3. Go through and revise / review Grand Challenge 1 of the Special Initiative on Climate Change
  32. 32. Next steps (including who and by when) • Circulate workshop notes for your review, then finalise • Report to Bruce on the SI-CC grand challenge text • Info Note • 2-pagers Doing a similar kind of workshop in the future? Linking to the CGIAR foresight report process?

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