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Science-policy dialogue: helping agriculture adapt to a changing climate

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Presentation by Philip Thornton at the CCAFS Ghana science-policy dialogue platform national stakeholders' workshop on 4 July 2019 in Tamale, Ghana.

Published in: Environment
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Science-policy dialogue: helping agriculture adapt to a changing climate

  1. 1. Philip Thornton Flagship Leader, Priorities and Policies for CSA National Stakeholders Workshop, Tamale, 4 July 2019 Science-policy dialogue: helping agriculture adapt to a changing climate Photo: G. Smith (CIAT)
  2. 2. • CCAFS and Flagship 1, Priorities and Policies for CSA • Bringing science and policy together • Concluding remarks Outline
  3. 3. 2. Climate-Smart technologies and practices 3. Low emissions development 1. Priorities and policies for climate- smart agriculture 4. Climate services and safety nets
  4. 4. Regional Programs CCAFS core sites, with projects fitting into an impact pathway: activities  outputs  outcomes  impacts
  5. 5. Working with partners to change opinions and worldviews Working with partners to understand what works Working with partners to make it happen Research evidence Policy and Institutional Change CSA implementation Agricultural research for development
  6. 6. Flagship 1 vision Organizations and institutions are transforming the policy environment to accelerate food and nutrition security and poverty reduction in a changing climate Some planned outcomes • Countries are using CCAFS priority setting to target and implement interventions to improve food and nutrition security • Millions of dollars of new investments are being made by national, regional and global agencies, informed by CCAFS science and engagement • Countries are making policy decisions that increase food and nutrition security and are increasing women’s access to productive assets and resources
  7. 7. How to achieve these outcomes? Through applied research and use of the results to: • Improve priority setting, trade-off analyses, and foresight • Improve understanding of effective enabling policy environments • Generate more evidence as to how CSA at scale can contribute to food & nutrition security • Effectively inform investment decisions
  8. 8. Some of our assumptions • Scientific knowledge is a desired input into decision- making • Innovative tools / mechanisms can support national decision-making processes and women’s participation • It’s possible to work with decision makers with competing interests and priorities for investments • Can help shape investment decisions by learning from research on enabling policy environments (not just technologies) • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will attract climate finance, and R4D can help strengthen country capacity to access funds
  9. 9. Are farmers changing their practices? Proportion of four household types from baseline data: 45 sites in 5 regions, 21 countries, 315 villages, 6300 households Region No. sites Proportion of households of each type Food insecure Hanging in Stepping up Stepping out East Africa 8 32.0 42.5 13.6 12.1 Latin America 7 5.7 60.0 20.8 14.1 South Asia 22 9.2 57.7 16.5 16.7 South-East Asia 3 10.2 63.4 11.9 14.5 West Africa 5 13.8 69.6 11.0 5.6 All 45 13.3 57.1 15.7 14.1 • Food insecure: food insecure hhs (> 5 food deficit months per year) • Stepping up: practice changes in the last 10 years involving some intensification • Stepping out: no practice changes, increased off-farm income • Hanging in: none of the above Thornton et al. (2018)
  10. 10. Key science – policy interaction points • Visioning and ex-ante evaluation work: future structure of agriculture, possible development pathways • Prioritising interventions: balancing strategic needs and making use of windows of opportunity • Need for change in all elements of the food system: making change joined up and innovative • Moving from informing policy to implementation research: getting science into national policy formulation / planning / implementation / monitoring, including gender and nutrition
  11. 11. What will agriculture look like by 2030? • Intensification and land consolidation? Farming in 2030: more inequality in farm incomes, sizes, technologies, market linkages? • >30% of most food commodities produced in SSA on farms ≤2 ha • Big social changes? Harnessing the power of better participatory foresight & scenarios Future mix, and where: • Sustainably intensified, market orientated smallholders? • Commercial large- scale sector? • Other livelihoods? Different futures will need different interventions and actions
  12. 12. • No silver bullets: what’s appropriate depends on local context • “Triple wins” (production, resilience, mitigation) may exist sometimes, but may be trade-offs (e.g. between food and income this season and increased resilience in the longer term) • Many constraints to uptake of interventions (costs, risk, access, technical know-how, acceptability, …): policy can enable innovation and change • For some options we need more research (food storage, food processing, vegetables, …) • We need more evidence about the impact of different interventions on incomes and food security Prioritizing interventions and taking the “good bets” to scale
  13. 13. Consumer behaviour and the retail sector are driving big food system changes  Opportunities: • New business models (business coordination, collective action / cooperatives, …) • New diets and consumer choices (urbanisation, fast food, supermarkets) • Managing food loss and waste • New businesses (equipment manufacturing, input supply, processing, nutrition education, food vending, …) • Engagement of women and youth A food system approach: supply chains, food retail, marketing and procurement
  14. 14. Technological change may bring big changes in agriculture and food systems, with rapid changes in social and cultural systems too Will current agricultural technology options be able to feed 9 billion people and reach the Sustainable Development Goals? Robotics in agriculture Cellular agriculture Digital agricultureGene technology Alternative protein for food, feed Food processing & safety Vertical agriculture Drones Impact on SDGs IMPLEMENTATION Mobile telephony in Africa: 23% penetration in 2005, 80% in 2017 (960 million mobile subscriptions)  comms and banking systems transformed Is there appropriate, near-ready technology that can be used? Technology as an ingredient of food-systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs (CSIRO & CCAFS, 2019)
  15. 15. Integrating science and policy Bridging the divide: • Co-design of processes, a critical contributor to co- ownership • Engage at multiple levels, and provide mechanisms to link levels up and down the hierarchy • Engage and translate research outputs into something useful for decision making – takes time, resources, energy • Ensure there are tangible benefits for everyone involved • Recognise that decision making in any policy environment is affected by many things other than research outputs Zougmoré et al. (2019)
  16. 16. Using existing policy “infrastructure”: integrating climate into development and implementing the Paris Agreement, including the NDC updating cycle
  17. 17. Concluding remarks • Big challenges to achieve desired outcomes of the SDGs by 2030: ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture - only 11 years away • Science-policy dialogue platforms are a key element of success • Lessons being learned here are being used in other countries and regions
  18. 18. p.thornton@cgiar.org www.ccafs.cgiar.org

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