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Making The Complex Complicated
Reuniting cause and effect
Matt Thompson
@BAmattTea
What would you do if your
printer ran out of paper?
What would you do if your
car ran out of brake fluid?
What would you do if you
wanted your start-up to make
€1m profit in its first year?
GAME ∞ NEVERENDING
GAME ∞ NEVERENDING
No-one set out to do these things
Outcomes and requirements
weren’t known beforehand
They were all differentiators
and hugely valuable
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Cynefin
Dave Snowden & Cognitive Edge
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Best practice
categorise
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Best practice
Good practice
analyse
categorise
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Best practice
Good practiceEmergent practice
analyse
categorise
probe
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Best practice
Good practiceEmergent practice
Novel practice
analyse
categorise
probe
act
5
4
2
3
1
Somebody outside the
organisation has done it
Nobody has ever done it
Somebody inside the
organisation has done it
Someone in the team has done it
We all know how to do it
with thanks to Liz Keogh
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Best practice
Good practiceEmergent practice
Novel practice
COMPLICATED
OBVIOUS
COMPLEX
CHAOTIC
Best practice
Good practiceEmergent practice
Novel practice
5 4
2
3
1
CUSTOMER LOYALTY
increase
CUSTOMER LOYALTY
Beyond what we’d already tried...
Nobody in our organisation
had new knowledge
Nobody had succeeded
in our context
increase
CUSTOMER LOYALTY
Beyond what we’d already tried...
Nobody in our organisation
had new knowledge
Nobody had succeeded
in our context
4
increase
Indicators of success
Indicators of failure
A way to amplify it
A way to dampen it
A scenario where it works
SAFE-TO-FAIL PROBES
What did we probe?
To discover what would make customers more loyal
Single card
Single, cross-divisional loyalty scheme
One card and all benefits in one place
Single card
Increase invitees
Sign-ups to invite
Engagement in
feedback
Oops!
WHAT DID
I LEARN?
Classifying problem how to analyse it
Define safe-to-fail probe indicators (especially how dampen)
Probes don’t need to be groundbreaking
Don’t try to make probes work - just measure indicators
@BAmattTea

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