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BA and Beyond 20 - Jan de Vries - What can Antifragility do for business analysts?

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This presentation/workshop is about mapping the consequences of antifragility for the profession of the modern business analyst. An antifragile system or organisation has the ability to become stronger as a result of unexpected events, malfunctions and errors. In other words, 'what does not kill you, makes you stronger'. But most organisations and systems are designed to deal exclusively with known risks. And process designers and IT departments have invested heavily in preventing errors. What would happen if you designed a system while assuming that all components can and will fail. And additionally generate random failures to test the resilience of the system. The Chaos Monkey, designed by Netflix, is one of the best - technical - examples in this field.

What does this approach mean for business analysis, for the 6 BABOK areas and especially for Strategy Analysis and Solution Evaluation? After all, how antifragile should an organisation become? To what extent is an organisation prepared to invest in this? And what is technically possible at all?

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BA and Beyond 20 - Jan de Vries - What can Antifragility do for business analysts?

  1. 1. ba-beyond.eu — #BABeyond20 13 October 2020 What can Antifragility do for business analysts? Jan de Vries
  2. 2. What can Antifragility do for business analysts? Live online, October 13 2020, 10.15-11.00 Jan de Vries
  3. 3. Enterprise DevOps working group In kaart brengen van Organisatie in beweging brengen Product snel en zonder waste naar de markt Jobs, Pains en gains Seeing things early & Connecting the working groups agile scaling, agile Areas
  4. 4. Support Staff in Agile/DevOps Environments • Agile & Control • Lean Agile HR • DevOps & Compliance Smell of the PI Planning • Do's and don'ts Antifragility Coherence Tour • DevOps • Business Analysis • XP Research, publishing & speaking
  5. 5. Take a screenshot • Introduction • 3 breakout rooms • Wrap up together Agenda for today
  6. 6. Fragile in IT
  7. 7. Robust in IT
  8. 8. Resilient in IT
  9. 9. Antifragile
  10. 10. • Latency monkey • Janitor monkey • Conformity monkey • Chaos gorilla Antifragile in IT
  11. 11. Inoculation
  12. 12. Provoke yourself • sleep on the floor • Leave your home without a phone • skip a meal • .... Source: Joep Dohmen
  13. 13. Asymmetry is key Definition: • anything that has more upside than downside from random events / shocks is antifragile; the reverse is fragile. • to judge the (anti)-fragility of a system is to ask whether it is accelerating towards harm or benefit Nonlinearity 1 Take a screenshot
  14. 14. Number of tasks coordinated in a software project Gain Pain SOFTWAREPROJECTSARE FRAGILE IT example
  15. 15. Number of deployments per month Gain Pain CONTINUOUS DEPLOYMENT IS ANTIFRAGILE IT example
  16. 16. Definition: – an option is a contract which gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to do something Asymmetry is key Optionality 2 – financial options are usually expensive – non-financial options are usually free or cheap, but.... we don't recognise them. Take a screenshot
  17. 17. The Unicorn Club
  18. 18. If you're not embarrassed by the first version of your product, you've launched too late Reid Hoffman, entrepreneur MVP's
  19. 19. AB testing • facilitates small experiments to a system. • reducing risk by low doses Source: Khalid Saleh
  20. 20. Asymmetry is key Transferring fragility Definition: • if one party has the downside and another party has the upside, fragility is being transferred from one party to another • The reverse: skin in the game -> a person has something to lose in a given situation 3 Take a screenshot
  21. 21. Skin in the game missing (silo's) SILO'SARE FRAGILIZERS
  22. 22. Source: Nijland and Berghout, 2002 Skin in the OPS game missing (projects) PROJECTSARE FRAGILIZERS
  23. 23. 'Any organisation that designs a system will inevitably produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization's communication structure' Melvin Edward Conway, 1967 Blocked by Conway's Law
  24. 24. 'Any organisation that designs a system will inevitably produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization's communication structure' Melvin Edward Conway, 1967 Leveraging Conway's Law
  25. 25. Current Potential The Antifragile Iceberg Continuous deployment AB testing Chaos engineering
  26. 26. Questions 1 of 2 • What would happen if you designed a system while assuming that all components can and will fail? • What does this approach mean for business analysis, for the 6 BABOK areas and especially for Strategy Analysis and Solution Evaluation? • How antifragile should an organisation become? To what extent is an organisation prepared to invest in this? And what is technically possible at all? Take a screenshot
  27. 27. Questions 2 of 2 • Is business analysis essentially fragile or antifragile? And how could it be made more insensitive to change and chaos? Or could it even be designed in such a way that it benefits from change and chaos? • To what extent can requirements engineering and requirements management facilitate systems and organisations to become more antifragile? How do you recognise secure options in requirements? Are choices dependent on an organisation's risk appetite? • To what extent is business analysis and requirements engineering susceptible to fragility, leading to sub optimalisation? How can this be prevented? • What does business analysis look like through anti-fragile eyes? What changes could that lead to in business analysis? Take a screenshot
  28. 28. 3 aspects in 3 breakout rooms 1. non linearity (CI/CD, stop software projects, chaos engineering, ........) 2. optionality (MVP's, A/B-testing, .......) 3. transferring fragility (DevOps, leverage Conway's Law, ......) Take a screenshot
  29. 29. To get more antifragile Continuous deployment DevOps Reducing Technical Debt Decentralised decision-making Microservices AB testing Autoscaling Focus on MTTR Canary releases Chaos engineering Reducing Organisational Debt
  30. 30. research@blueoceanrecon.com

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