Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Similar to Autonomous Vehicle Benefits and Challenges; Role of Governments?
Similar to Autonomous Vehicle Benefits and Challenges; Role of Governments? (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Autonomous Vehicle Benefits and Challenges; Role of Governments?
- 1. Autonomous Vehicle Benefits and Challenges; Role of Governments? Christopher A. Hart Presented to Ford School Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC
- 2. Outline ⎼Opportunities ⎼Lessons learned from aviation automation ⎼Other automation challenges ⎼Roles of Governments February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 2
- 3. Opportunities ⎼ Automation has generated significant benefits in aviation • Safety • Aircraft productivity and operating efficiency • System throughput • Reduced pollution ⎼ Benefits from driverless cars will probably include all of those – especially safety – and many others ⎼ Issue is how best to avoid exacerbating public skepticism about automation by minimizing injuries and damage in the development process February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 3
- 4. Aviation Automation Lessons Learned ⎼Importance of “Human-centric” automation ⎼Automation not perfect; thus, important to have “Graceful exits” if: • Driver is inattentive • Automation fails • Automation encounters unanticipated circumstances or is uncertain ⎼Humans are not good monitors of reliable systems February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 4
- 5. “Human-Centric” Automation ⎼Aviation automation began with “Automate because we can” ⎼Outcome not always optimal; evolved to “human- centric” automation ⎼Many AV efforts to be “human-centric,” but crashes reveal need for improvement February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 5
- 6. Not Adequately Human-Centric ⎼Calling system “Autopilot” • Misleadingly suggests no need for driver engagement ⎼Expecting driver to remain attentive, even with very effective systems • Effective systems encourage complacency, inattention • Responses to inattention – stopping car on the road or disengaging automation • Both responses have serious flaws ⎼Without “graceful exit” re driver inattention, ready for “prime time” on the streets? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 6
- 7. Other Human-Centric Realities ⎼ If not adequately user-friendly, automation may • Be improperly used • Distract driver • Cause driver to turn it off, lose potential benefits ‒ Possibility of automation being uncertain • Inadequate lane markings • Less braking effectiveness, e.g., slippery road • Unanticipated circumstances, e.g., object in the road ‒ Adequacy of alert to driver if automation fails or is uncertain? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 7
- 8. Automation-Generated Complacency – Williston, FL, 2016 − Car submarined under trailer of left-turning tractor-trailer ⎼ No car skid marks − Driver inattentive, using “Autopilot” − Owner’s Manual: Use Autopilot “only on highways and limited access roads” − Driver over-reliance on Autopilot; Tesla over-reliance on Owner’s Manual February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 8
- 9. Complacency (con’t) – Culver City, CA, 2018 February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 9 ⎼ Fire truck stopped in left lane of Interstate, responding to crash ⎼ Tesla also in left lane, car in front of Tesla moved right to avoid fire truck ⎼ Tesla, apparently in automated mode, remained in left lane and struck the truck ⎼ NTSB investigation underway
- 10. Automation Failure, No Alert ⎻Fort Totten Metro, Washington, DC, 2009 • Train became electronically invisible, no warning to following train • Following train sensed no train ahead, began accelerating to max speed for that area • Operator applied emergency brake upon seeing stopped train, but her sight distance was limited by curve • Operator, eight passengers killed February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 10
- 11. Unanticipated Circumstances ⎼ Air France Flight 447, Rio to Paris, 2009 • Cruise at 35,000’, night, near thunderstorms, autopilot engaged • Ice blocked pitot tubes, thus no airspeed information • Autopilot and several other systems inoperative without airspeed information • Pilot responses inappropriate, crashed into ocean ‒ Query: Pilot training re • loss of airspeed information in cruise • manual flight at cruise altitude • recovery from stall/unusual attitudes at cruise altitude, or • crew resource management? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 11
- 12. Automation Challenges Not Encountered in Aviation ⎼AI learns with experience ⎼Drivers not trained ⎼Street testing is essential ⎼Need for “Graceful exits” ⎼Mixing driverless vehicles with human drivers February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 12
- 13. Automation Challenges Not Encountered in Aviation (con’t) ⎼Software updates: Ensure no undesirable interactions between systems or unintended consequences? ⎼Cyber security concerns, initial and with invasion protocol improvements? ⎼Competition re safety ⎼Ethical issues February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 13
- 14. Automation That Learns ⎼Aviation automation does not learn; changes necessitate additional pilot training ⎼AV automation will learn with experience ⎼Automation changes from learning create challenge of keeping drivers abreast of automation behavior February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 14
- 15. Driver Training ⎼Airline pilots have extensive training, including when systems are modified ⎼Designers of automation that assists drivers must assume worst case, i.e., drivers will have no training and will not look at owner’s manual ⎼Possible outcomes from untrained drivers: • Driver turning automation off, losing protection • Driver being distracted by automation ⎼Will auto dealers need to train buyers? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 15
- 16. The Necessity of Street Testing February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 16 ⎼ Street testing is essential because the streets are so complex and variable ⎼ Lab and test track testing are not sufficient
- 17. The Inherent Challenge ⎼Assuming vehicles are very reliable before being tested on the streets, the challenge is that humans are not good monitors of reliable systems ⎼Needed: • Improved system design, e.g., warning re uncertainty • Improved monitor training February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 17
- 18. Human as Inadequate Monitor: Tempe, AZ, 2018 February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 18 ‒ “Driverless” street test (with monitor/driver) ‒ Woman killed walking across street; night, not in crosswalk ‒ NTSB investigating, preliminary report notes no pre-impact slowing ‒ First pedestrian fatality from “driverless” vehicle
- 19. Need for “Graceful Exits” ⎼As with systems that assist drivers, need “Graceful exits” without drivers if: • Automation fails • Automation encounters unanticipated circumstances or is uncertain ⎼Graceful exits: • Important when driver is being assisted • Essential when driver is removed February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 19
- 20. “Graceful Exit” re Landing on the Hudson, 2009? −Both engines ingested birds −Pilots unable to reach airport, landed in river −No fatalities or serious injuries −Could automation have landed successfully? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 20
- 21. Mixing Driverless With Humans ⎼Very challenging because of variability and lack of predictability of human drivers, bicyclists, and pedestrians ⎼Necessitates consideration of human factors of other humans, even for full (driverless) automation February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 21
- 22. Software Updates ⎼As updates are broadcast – testing re: • Interactions or unintended consequences? • Driver responses to updates? ⎼Aviation system designers use pilots during design to test the human-machine system ⎼Using drivers in auto simulators is less effective due to • Less sophisticated simulators • Greater variability of background and experience of drivers February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 22
- 23. Cyber Protection ⎼Robustness of testing update broadcast process and updated systems against cyber attack • Initially • As attack protocols continually improve ⎼Robustness of testing cyber protection updates • Re unintended consequences • Against continually improving cyber attack protocols February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 23
- 24. Competition re Safety ⎼Airlines do not compete on safety ⎼Lack of competition enables free sharing of info re safety issues and remedies ⎼Automakers compete vigorously on safety • Eliminating safety competition is unlikely, probably undesirable • Challenge – exploiting competition while enabling sharing of safety information • No competition re objectives, but compete re most effective implementation? • Compete to be safest rather than first? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 24
- 25. Ethical Issues ⎼ No major automation ethical issues in aviation ⎼ Overarching ethical issue ⎼ Introduce AVs sooner (systems less perfected, but begin saving lives sooner) or wait until systems more perfected (thus suffering more fatalities)? ⎼ Other ethical issues • Save occupants or save others? • Select response that minimizes fatalities? ⎼ Better to address ethical issues early rather than as after- the-fact add-ons ⎼ Ethical issue activity mostly from academia ⎼ Federal leadership needed February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 25
- 26. Role of Federal Government ⎼National uniformity • Avoid patchwork quilt of requirements from state to state ⎼International harmony • Simplifies international trade ⎼Ethical Issues February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 26
- 27. Sample State and Local Government Issues ⎼ Driving Requirements (if Feds don’t establish requirements) • Licensing requirements • Hands on the wheel • Requirements re steering wheel, brakes ⎼ Infrastructure • Traffic signals • Lane and center lines, parking lines, crosswalks • Street signage • Street parking • Parking garages • Dedicated lanes for AVs • Segregation of bicycles, motorcycles, pedestrians • Communication with and between AVs February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 27
- 28. Sample State and Local Government Issues (con’t) ⎼ Revenue • Auto registration • Fuel taxes • Parking and moving violations • Parking lot taxes ⎼ Resources • Traffic police • Emergency response • Infrastructure maintenance ⎼ Other • Differences for bad weather? • Reduced organ donations? February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 28
- 29. Conclusions ⎻ Automation offers significant potential benefits, including saving tens of thousands of lives every year in the US, more than a million every year worldwide ⎻ However, there are many challenges ⎻ Learning lessons from decades of aviation automation experience can help avoid exacerbating public skepticism re automation, avoid unnecessarily delaying implementation ⎻ AV industry will also face many additional automation challenges ⎻ Anticipate major changes for governments at all levels February 10, 2020 Hart Solutions LLC 29
- 30. Thank You!!! Questions? Christopher A. Hart Hart Solutions LLC chris@hartsolutionsllc.com 202-680-4122
Editor's Notes
- 74 mph, no skid marks Car didn’t see truck, can’t spot crossing objects Driver not paying attention Name ”Autopilot” misleading Bragging on social media, Sudoku Driver engagement: steering wheel torque? Many warnings, all ignored Owner’s Manual: Complied? Who reads?
- Train electronic disappearance Difficult to replicate Parasitic oscillation Warning on dispatch board: 500/day, ignore overalarm No warning to following train
- Several sudden warnings Inconsistent – too fast, too slow, no cause and effect Startle Desired response, with hindsight – pitch and power Actual response – immediate full nose up by copilot . . . Not sure why No CRM, pilot didn’t know about copilot’s nose up Advisability of scheduled break? Three pitot systems – redundant if taken out by common cause? Yoke vs. sidestick 2000/1000 --- necessity for autopilot No sim training re manual flight at cruise No sim training re loss of airspeed in cruise No sim hi altitude stall recovery training False stall recovery alarms; based on airspeed, not weight on wheels Previous loss of airspeed info events – pilots recovered, so better heater, but no emergency Need to consider automation plus human and automation plus system
- Streets and highways are so variable and complex that street testing is essential; lab and test track testing are not sufficient Sims not sufficiently robuts, more driver variablilty Pilots can get certified from sims alone, no real airplane time Assuming vehicles are very reliable before street testing, challenge is that humans are not good monitors of reliable systems Needed: Improved system design and monitor training
- Full disclosure – engaged by Uber Crash inevitable Need street testing, but humans not good monitors of reliable systems Industry issue, not just Uber issue With such extensive street testing, inevitable to have distraction, not necessarily for bad reason, plus victim sooner or later Inadequate system warning re uncertainty Stop in time if looking? NTSB will determine Pedestrian impaired No crosswalk where sidewalk meets street
- Bird ingestion anticipated Good news – ingestion contained Ingestion in both engines not anticipated Pilots not trained to glide, land in water, or land without power Could design recovery automation in hindsight, not in foresight Automation issue – phugoid damper denied 3 ½ degrees nose up in flare; more damage?