1. By Brian Solis, Principal Analyst at
Altimeter, a Prophet Company
Updated: Feb 27, 2017
THE RACE TO 2021:
THE STATE OF AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLES AND A “WHO’S
WHO” OF INDUSTRY DRIVERS

2. State of Autonomous Vehicles: Executive Summary
For this market profile report, we examined
the autonomous offerings of 26 auto
manufacturers and 50 hardware and
software providers, uncovering the following
insights and trends:
• Semi-autonomous vehicles are the
stepping stone to fully autonomous
vehicles, with most car manufacturers and
technology companies taking the lead of
Tesla and offering features such as self-
parking, adaptive cruise control,
emergency braking, and semi-hands off
driving within highway/interstate
conditions. Semi-autonomous features
help consumers become comfortable with
the idea of robots taking the wheel.
• Startups and technology leaders are
driving the accelerated innovation in
autonomous technology, forcing
incumbents to partner, acquire, or ramp up
R&D to compete (e.g. BMW and Baidu;
Fiat Chrysler and Waymo, an Alphabet
company; and GM and Lyft). Toyota, Intel,
and Mercedes-Benz have dedicated
business units. Automakers are essentially
getting into the software/hardware and
utility business as future profits will depend
less on manufacturing, selling and
financing automobiles and more on
monetizing driving.
• Luxury car manufacturers such as Jaguar
Land Rover, Maserati, and Porsche are
looking toward a future where the driver
still has an experiential role in autonomous
vehicles. Cars will become platforms for
passenger experience, creating a new
canvas for cockpits and space.
• In addition to data science, social science
is also becoming prevalent in autonomous
development as companies such as
Nissan and Audi take an anthropological
approach to teach self-driving cars to act
more human in their control and on-road
actions (e.g. honking, signaling other
people or vehicles, moving closer to lane
marketing before switching lanes).

3. • Large automakers, tech companies, and
mobility providers are taking on "acqui-
hiring" strategies, acquiring startups (or
partnering with them) to absorb not only
their technology but also their talent. We'll
see a surge in tech jobs in the
autonomous industry in coming years on
the programming and development side.
And, in response to all the acquisitions
and partnerships, we're seeing other
startups approach the market from a
"plug and play" perspective; as in, their
technology (hardware or software) can be
easily retrofit into existing models of cars.
This solidifies their position in the market
without the need for a buyout, as their
model works more like a supplier.
• With the latest round of updates from
CES, there is more focus on intelligent
vehicles (e.g. Toyota, AutoLiv, Ford's
concept vision video). These self-driving
cars can think on their own, communicate
with other vehicles (V2V) through deep
learning and AI. This means that all
software that exists may run into
compatibility issues when asked to
communicate with other systems within a
vehicle. This is similar to the
interoperability conundrum the industry
witnessed around IoT. However, when
solved for, V2V opportunities abound in
improving traffic experience, reducing
accidents, and new value-added in-car
design components.
• Mapping software has emerged as its
own category among technology
providers in the autonomous space, as
3D terrain mapping is a critical
component to the effectiveness and
safety of self-driving cars as they
navigate their environments.

4. • Though most autonomous leaders are
testing prototypes on the road in Silicon
Valley, Austin, Pittsburgh and other
metropoles, Honda and Hyundai are
focusing their autonomous vehicle testing
in large-scale controlled environments
that allow for pedestrian situation testing
as well as high-speed loops and
simulated cityscapes.
• Progressive automakers are repositioning
their future foci away from just “making
cars” to becoming mobility services and
sharing companies, i.e. BMW, Daimler,
Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Mercedes,
Nissan, Tesla, VW, et al. To this trend,
ride/hail companies are also attracting
investments from traditional automakers
to develop next-generation autonomous
services. Toyota invested an undisclosed
amount of money in Uber. Volkswagen
AG invested $300 million in Gett, an Uber
and Lyft competitor. General Motors Co.
acquired a stake in Lyft.
• Autonomous vehicles, to varying extents,
are already operating in vertical
applications such as farming,
warehousing/inventory management, and
construction. Uber, Tesla, and Mercedes-
Benz are also experimenting with other
applications of self-driving technologies in
city busses and semi-trucks.
• Carmakers will also become data
companies, borrowing cues from Apple,
Google, and Facebook to convert data
into insights and customize consumer
services to deliver value-added
experiences. Companies such as BMW i
Ventures and Toyota Research Institute
are already partnering with data startups
such as Nauto to share driver data as a
means of more rapidly improving
autonomous vehicle systems.

5. Update Feb 27, 2017: Additional Executive Insights
• There is unprecedented collaboration
between would-be competitors to
accelerate the development of self-driving
cars. These collaborations and individual
efforts are investing in scaling self-driving
technology to consumer markets by
reducing technology costs. For example,
Waymo’s initial implementation of LIDAR
came at a cost of $80,000 per car, but
recent efforts are seeking to bring those
costs down to $50 at scale. LIDAR was
originally touted as the go-to tech for radar
mapping in self-driving cars, but now we're
seeing more startups emerge that are
using other vision processing technologies
with longer range and higher resolution
optics for better sensing. This is one
reason why LIDAR is decreasing in costs,
as better "seeing" technology is emerging
in the market.
• When analyzing automaker and vendor
announcements, public policy and
infrastructure, and test results, the year
2021 seems a realistic launch date for
Level 5 self-driving cars from
a technology perspective but not
at consumer levels. Initial applications for
self-driving cars will be limited to fixed
public transit courses, university and
business campuses, and inner-city
ride/hail services where infrastructure and
pedestrian laws have been adapted for
safety. Consumers are largely wary of
autonomous cars, with many still
questioning viability, ethics, and trust. They
want to drive a vehicle with semi-
autonomous features, and automakers are
introducing these features in waves to
tame fears and humanize the technologies
before fully autonomous vehicle release
and adoption is feasible.
• Self-driving cars are the latest "gold rush"
sparked by public tests from the likes of
Google and Tesla. Detroit and auto capitals
around the world were pushed to
accelerate self-driving programs to appear
innovative and not lose brand equity.

6. The Five Levels of Autonomous Driving

7. The Five Levels of Autonomous Driving
Level 0: Zero Automation - Driving as Usual
A human driver is required to operate the vehicle safely at all
times.
• Driver in full control
• Eyes on the road
• Hands-on the wheel
• Foot on the acceleration pedal/brake
Level 1: Driver Assisted/Function-Specific -
Intelligent features add layer of safety and comfort
A human driver is required for all critical functions. The car can
alert the driver to conditions, environment and obstructions. It
can also offer assisted/smart performance and driving
capabilities.
• Driver in full control
• Eyes on the road
• Hands-on the wheel (relief offered in certain modes)
• Foot on the acceleration pedal/brake (relief offered in
certain modes)
Vehicle aids driver
Level 2: Partial Automation/Combined
Autonomous Functions - Key automated
capabilities become standard but driver still in
control
At least two simultaneous autonomous tasks become are
managed by the vehicle in specific scenarios.
• Driver in control
• Eyes on the road
• Hands-on the wheel or ready to be on the wheel in cruise
control mode
• Foot on the acceleration pedal/brake or ready in cruise
control mode
Vehicle in partial, temporary control (fixed scenarios)
Level 3 : Conditional Automation/Limited Self-
Driving - The car becomes a co-pilot
The vehicle manages most safety-critical driving functions in
known (mapped) environmental conditions. A human driver is
still present and expected to manage vehicle operation.
• Driver in partial control
• Eyes temporarily off the road but still observant
• Hands-off the wheel in specific scenarios but at the ready
• Foot off the acceleration pedal/brake but at the ready
Vehicle in conditional control (known environments)

8. Level 4
High Automation - Capable of performing all
safety-critical driving functions while monitoring
environments/conditions in defined use cases
Per NHTSA, this is full self-driving automation. Per SAE, Self-
driving is fully possible in most road conditions and
environments without need of human intervention. A functional
driver cockpit is still in place (steering wheel, brake/acceleration
pedal, etc.)
• Driver becomes passenger but can assume control
• Eyes off the road
• Hands-off the wheel
• Foot off the acceleration pedal/brake
Vehicle in control (once input is provided and in most situations)
Level 5
Fully Autonomous - Vehicle is completely
driverless
No level 5 per NHTSA. Per SAE, full-time automated driving in
all conditions without a human driver. These vehicles will not
feature driving equipment and will no longer look like the
vehicles of the past.
• No driver
Vehicle in control

9. That’s the year auto manufacturers have
promised fully autonomous vehicles on the
road. Depending on who you follow, 2021 (or
2020, in some cases) is either overly
optimistic or cautiously conservative. Either
way, it’s clear that startups and incumbents
are racing toward a self-driving future with
press and media documenting every mile-
marker. What remains unclear, though, is
when––and to what extent––autonomous
vehicles will arrive on the roads and how
consumers and commercial industries will
adopt progressing levels of autonomy over
time. With the increasing level of activity in the
autonomous space, and more companies,
products, and partnerships expected to enter
the fray, mapping the ecosystem proves a
complex and ongoing commitment.
In our attempt to keep pace with the frequency
of press announcements in the space, it
became clear that information is distributed
and rarely accessible in a centralized, public
manner.
This report serves as a comprehensive primer
for those monitoring the state of autonomous
vehicle development. It offers an introduction
to key players, organized by industry sector, to
outline initial and evolving applications for
consumer markets and verticals. It will be
updated at key intervals when significant
announcements are made or milestones
achieved.

10. Get Out of My Dreams and Into My [Self-Driving] Car
Self-driving cars have always stoked our
imaginations. From movies, to cartoons, to
advertisements, autonomous vehicles portray a
life only possible in science fiction or a dream to
be realized off in the distant future. Though our
“Jetsons” or “Minority Report” moment is still
forthcoming, autonomous capabilities are arriving
in increments. With each new invention, science
fiction is transformed into reality, one chapter at a
time.
Today, aspects of self-driving cars are
making their way into new models,
introducingintelligent, driver-assisted
features that are slowly bridging the gap
between semi- and fully autonomous
abilities. This is years in the making of
course.
The race toward self-driving vehicles is as
much about technology as it is about
infrastructure and support. Beyond
sensors, cameras, processing, etc.,
everyday things that drivers take for
granted today also have to advance. From
lanes and lights, to signs and obstructions,
to rules and regulation, government, cities
and manufacturers must also improve to
protect people inside and outside the car.
All of this needs to rapidly evolve to keep up
with autonomous technologies and
capabilities.
Like any new technology, prices initially appeal
to specialized industries such as
transportation and deliveries, as well as
individual consumers willing to spend big.
Eventually, semi- and fully autonomous
vehicles will be offered in shared and owned
formats for almost everyone to enjoy.
Autonomous technology will ultimately
change the entire automotive industry and
supporting ecosystems and supply chains.
Let’s consider ownership, financing, and
insurance? Data shows

11. that on average, cars are parked 95% of the time.1 With such downtime, traditional ownership could
be considered obsolete. Shared or rental models now become more economically feasible. Users
could simply summon the car on-demand or based on algorithmic patterns of need. As such,
automotive financing may now shift from programs for individual ownership to shared ownership
models. Or, if companies like Uber successfully transition to the self-driving economy, service
providers would assume vehicle leasing/financing programs to offer personalized autonomous
driving services.
As new ownership scenarios play out, insurance and maintenance industries will also
needto productize new solutions to various stakeholders. Cars will be able to drive
themselves to dealership services. And, because many self-driving cars will be
catering to different stakeholders, insurance companies will stabilize
potential losses in traditional income with modern,
scenario-based premiums.
Open the door, buckle up, and enjoy the ride as we explore
the autonomous ecosystem. There’s a lot of to see, so
think of each section as a vista point. And, don’t worry,
there are rest stops along the way.
“To finish the moment, to find the journey’s end in every
step of the road, to live the greatest number of good
hours, iswisdom.”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
1 http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/PayAsYouPark.htm

12. Autonomous Driving Applications v1.0

14. VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS

15. Audi has revealed a series of autonomous vehicleprototypes,
including consumer-oriented test vehicles, based on its A7 and
RS7 models. Audi is working on plans to bring its“Audi
Piloted Driving” to market in its next-generation flagship model A8.
Initially, the A8 will have the ability to park itself and drive
autonomously up to 37 mph. Audi is also working with NVIDIA,
supplier of AI driving technology, on expediting a fully autonomous
vehicle program to hit the market by 2020.2
Audi announced in July 2016 a dedicated subsidiary devotedto
developing autonomous driving tech called SDS Company.
Similar to Nissan’s anthropological approach to making
autonomous driving more human, Audi has been teaching its
robotic vehicles to drive more like humans in an effort to make
them safer on the roads. For example, the car will move closerto
lane markings before signaling that it is about to changelanes.
Additionally, it will offer larger vehicles a wider space when
passing. When another car aims to merge into its lane, thevehicle
will either speed up or slow down to let them in. Engineers believe
that this approach will help ease driver anxiety toward embracing
autonomous vehicles over time while also behaving “normally” on
the road as to not disrupt the everyday patterns of other drivers.
2 https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/04/nvidia-and-audi-aim-to-bring-a-self-driving-ai-car-to-market-by-2020/

16. BMW is actively pursuing an autonomous strategy. At CES 2016,
it introduced an autonomous concept of its i8 wonder car. The
company also announced that its autonomous strategy would be
run as part of its BMW iNEXT initiative, a shift from its BMW i EV
sub-brand.
In 2014, BMW forged a strategic R&D partnership with Chinese
search engine Baidu. Additionally, BMW is developing a range
of autonomous vehicles with different levels of human and
machine control. BMW also announced a partnership with Intel
and Israeli tech firm Mobileye with plans to create an open
standards-based platform.
As a result, BMW hopes to introduce a fleet of 40 fully
autonomous 7 Series vehicles in 2017 that will drive on both
highways and in urban environments in the U.S. and Europe.3
It has received permission from the California Department of
Motor Vehicles to test driverless cars on public streets. BMW
expects a steering wheel and pedals to remain in fully self-
driving vehicles, as an option for the driver to take control as
needed/wanted.
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/bmw-to-deploy-fleet-of-self-driving-7-series-on-roads-this-year

17. Faraday Future, a California-based startup company, primarily
funded by Chinese billionaire Jia Yueting and his LeEco tech
company, is aiming to market high-performance, autonomous
electric cars. Faraday’s initial model unveiled at CES 2016 is a
race-car inspired FFZero1. Sneak peeks of the latest model,
with plans to start building in 2018,4 were also teased from the
company’s Twitter account in early December. Interesting features
speculated based on the images include replacement of side-view
mirrors with cameras and a retractable Lidar sensor.5
In June 2016, Faraday Future received approval to test self-
driving vehicles on California roads at the end of the year. Spy
photographers reported in August that the company was testing
autonomous equipment in California using a Lincoln MKZ sedan.
The future of Faraday is reportedly in flux though, as cash
shortages, unpaid construction payments, missed shipping
deadlines, and staff departures have plagued the startup since
October.6 Still, at CES 2017, Faraday Future showcased its new
FF 91 electric vehicle which is equipped with more than 30
advanced sensors for autonomous driving (and parking,
demonstrated onsite), as well as cameras, radar, ultrasonic
sensors, and a retractable LIDAR unit.7
4 http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/faraday-future-electric-car-teases-continue/
5 http://www.businessinsider.com/faraday-future-ces-electric-car-teaser-images-photos-2016-12
6 Ibid.
7 http://investorplace.com/2017/01/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-stock-faraday-future-ff-91/#.WHatmbYrK3V

18. Even though Google (Alphabet) isn’t expected to enter the
automobile manufacturing space, the company announced a
dealwith FiatChryslerto testChryslerPacificaminivansas its first
automotive partner for its self-driving technology.8 Fiat Chrysler hasn’t
publicized any formal internal development, but partnering with
Googleoffersbenefitsforbothcompanies.
For one,FiatChryslerintroduceda differenttypeof modelinto
the space,one thatboastsadditionalpassengerroomoverits
competitorsand alsoautomateddoors.Thisis importantin a future
of autonomousvehiclesharingand “taxis”becausetherewill be
circumstanceswhenpassengersforgetto closethe dooruponexiting.
Without human intervention, self-driving vehicles would become
temporarily immobilized without automated features. For Alphabet,
now spinning its driverless car efforts into new company Waymo, this
partnership presents the opportunity to scale its technology, at
significantly reduced costs,with the help of automotive expertise to
help it meet federal regulations and mass produceits technologyin
market-ready,consumer-orientedvehicles.
At a Google press conference in December 2016, the company
officiallydebutedWaymo.Priorto the event,Bloombergpublished a
reportthatWaymoand FiatChryslermay be planningto launcha
ridesharingservice,expectedto launchbeforethe end of 2017.9
8 http://www.wsj.com/articles/google-fiat-chrysler-begin-work-on-self-driving-minivans-146420018090
9 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-13/google-said-to-plan-ride-sharing-service-with-chrysler-minivans-iwnox94h

19. Henrik Fisker was an early innovator in the advancement of electric high performance vehicles. Launched
as Fisker Automotive, the company debuted its hybrid Karma model at the 2008 North American
InternationalAuto Show. After selling 2,000 Karmas worldwide, FiskerAutomotive met its demise.
Citing major differences with management, Fisker resigned in 2013. The company subsequently for
bankruptcy10,11. Chinese parts supplier Wanxiang bought its assets for $149.2 million in 2014 and formed
Karma Automotive. In February 2014, the company’s designs, engineering, and manufacturing facility were
purchased by Chinese auto parts conglomerate Wanxiang Group for $149.2 million.12
Fisker Inc. was then re-launched in 2016 as an all-electric vehicle.13 The company is now working on its
Emotion EV vehicle expected to debut in the summer of 2017. The vehicle is designed to be a luxury
electric sedan that is estimated to drive up to 400 miles on a single charge and reach a top speed of
161mph.14 The EMotion was announced with autonomous capabilities but details are not yet available.
10 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-fisker-specialreport-idUSBRE95G02L20130617
11 http://www.law360.com/articles/510543/bankrupt-fisker-gets-nod-for-149m-sale-to-wanxiang
12 http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/02/18/business/ap-us-fisker-
bankruptcy.html?action=click&contentCollection=Automobiles&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=article
13 http://www.fiskerinc.com
14 http://fortune.com/2016/10/31/henrik-fisker-emotion-car/

20. In early 2015, Ford announced its “Smart Mobility Plan,” which
lead to the formation of Ford Smart Mobility, LLC, in March2016,
a subsidiary focused on connectivity, autonomous vehicles, and mobility
(e.g. car- and ride-sharing services).
In August 2016, Ford boldly planted an autonomous flag into the
foundation of the company's future. By 2021, Ford CEO Mark
Fields declared the company would launch a fleet of commercial, “Level
4” autonomous vehicles for use in ride-hail services. Level 4 contains
location and weather restrictions, so Ford has planned to initially
implement its autonomous vehicles in ridesharing/hailing fleets in
temperate weather regions in areas that have been geo-fenced and
mapped in 3D high-resolution. In December 2016, the company
announced its development of a new generation of hybrid Fusions that
have upgraded processing power, new on-board computing hardware,
and improved LIDAR sensors that deliver a better field of view.
Ford’s foray into the autonomous world is aided by its acquisition of
Israel-based machine learning firm SAIPS and also through strategic
investments in 3D mapping startup Civil Maps. Ford and Chinese
search engine company Baidu Inc., which has also invested in Uber,
have independently invested $150 million in Velodyne, a company that
makes the laser sensors that help guide self-driving cars. Ford also
announced in Feb. 2017 its $1B investment in Argo AI, an artificial
intelligence startup, marking the largest investment a traditional auto
manufacturer has made in self-driving tech to date.

21. This move toward“self-driving
cars as a service” is expected
to become a notable and
growing revenue generatorfor
Ford over the comingyears.
Ford officially plans to be a
“mobility” company, not just a
car manufacturer.15 That
statement started to gain
clarity in September 2016
when CEO Mark Fields
explained,16 “We’re rethinking
our entire business model. It’s
no longer about how many
vehicles we can sell, it’s about
what services we can provide.
We understand that the world
has changed from a mindset
of owning vehicles to one of
owning and sharing them.”
15 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-ford-plans-to-take-
on-uber-and-lyft-175250680.html
16
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/12/ford-
motors-self-driving-car-uber-google

22. General Motors has made aggressive moves in autonomous and ride-sharing
fronts. In January 2016, the company purchased Sidecar’s assets, an early but
now defunct competitor to Uber and Lyft. Additionally, GM reportedly paid
upward of $1 billion for Cruise Automation, an up-and-coming start-up that
promised to transform any vehicle into one that is fully autonomous. GM then
invested $500 million in Lyft to develop a driverless ride-hailing service. With
GM as manufacturer, Cruise Automation as the autonomous enabler, and Lyft
as the logistics operator, GM is already piloting ride-hailing programs in Austin,
Texas, Phoenix, and, soon, in Washington.
Its first publicly available self-driving car will be the Chevy Bolt, an all-electric,
long-range vehicle currently being tested as part of its Lyft pilot program.
Currently, GM is testing 40 autonomous Bolts at its Technical Center campus in
Warren, Mich., as well as on public roads in San Francisco and Scottsdale,
Ariz. In February 2017, it was revealed that GM planned to deploy thousands
of self-driving Volts with Lyft in 2018—the largest autonomous test by any
automaker prior to the industry’s expected rollout in 2020.16b
GM’s CEO Mary Barra also sees self-driving cars changing our driving (transit)
behaviors similar to that of passengers on trains, ferries and airplanes.
"Whether it's a second office or entertainment, I think there is a lot of new
opportunities when you have that person in the vehicle," Barra told
Business Insider.17
16b http://venturebeat.com/2017/02/17/gm-reportedly-plans-to-build-and-test-thousands-of-self-driving-bolts-in-2018/
17 http://www.businessinsider.com/gms-mary-barra-interview-2016-12?op=1

23. Looking in-house, GM also developed semi-autonomous Super Cruise technology. GM will introduce Super
Cruise in high-end Cadillac models in 2017, initially offering a Tesla-like autonomous experience that allows
drivers to commute in a semi-hands off capacity. The technology also features facial recognition that alerts
distracted or drowsy drivers through a combination of lights, vibrations, audible warnings, and eventually an
OnStar representative. If the driver remains too hands-off, the vehicle will pull itself over, stop, and flash
hazard lights.
General Motors CEO Mary Barra announced on December 15, 2016, that the automaker will begin testing
self-driving vehicles on public roads in Michigan. Recently, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder signed a
package of bills that legalizes operation of autonomous vehicles. The goal is to bring the spotlight back to
Michigan as the beacon of automotive innovation. Additionally, Barra also announced that the Orion
Township assembly plant will produce its autonomous test vehicles in early 2017. This is the same plant
where the all-electric Chevrolet Bolt is produced.
“We expect GM will become the first high-volume auto manufacturer to build fully autonomous vehicles in a
mass production assembly plant,” Barra said during a press conference.18
GM is only ramping up its self-driving efforts. The company also detailed plans to hire 700 engineers in
Canada focused on autonomous vehicle software and controls development, safety technology,
infotainment, and connected vehicle technology.
18 http://fortune.com/2016/12/15/gm-self-driving-cars-michigan/

24. Honda is taking a different approach to its autonomous program
than others we’ve covered. In early 2016, the company debuted
an affordable $20,000 semi-autonomous model of its Civic LX
Sedan.19 Similar to Tesla and Mercedes-Benz models, the Civic
will feature advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) which
offers lane keeping and changing