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Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles
A guide for happy motorists and contented passengers
128/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
Part 1 Introduction to the world of Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles
About this presentation
2
This presentation was given to students
and academic staff on March 28th 2017
at the University of Portsmouth.
©2017 Astius Technology Systems Ltd
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
Bill Harpley MSc
• 30+ years in technology sector
• Founder of Astius Technology
• Organizer of Brighton IoT meetup group
(700+ members)
• Initiator of Brighton node of the global
Things Network
• Organizer of the Self-driving Cars &
Autonomous Vehicles meetup group
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/billharpley
bill.harpley@astius.co.uk
www.astius.co.uk
328/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
428/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
1. The evolution of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs)
2. An overview of Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS)
3. User Experience and Safety issues
4. The benefits of CAVs
5. The influence of public policy
6. The global race towards deployment
7. Emerging opportunities from data
8. Obstacles to market development
9. What the future holds
10. Social and political impact
Evolution of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs)
528/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
A century of innovation
• Both the Model-T of 1910 and the Tesla electric car of 2016 represent truly
transformational technologies.
• Expect the evolution from ‘manual’ to ‘connected’ vehicles to be every bit as
revolutionary as the shift away from ‘horse powered’ transport more than a
century ago.
Key milestones towards driverless cars
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 7
1950s
•RCA Labs steer
model vehicles
using embedded
tracks
•General Motors
Firebird concept
car
•Chrysler Imperial
is first car with
cruise control
1960s
•UK Transport
Research Lab
develop driverless
Citroen car
•Ohio State
University launch
project to develop
driverless cars,
activated by
electronic devices
embedded in the
road
•Stanford
University develop
AI Laboratory Cart
1970s
•Funding for UK
Transport
Research Lab
experiment
withdrawn in
1970s
1980s
•In US the DARPA
funded
Autonomous Land
Vehicle project
launched
•EU EUREKA
Prometheus’
driverless vehicle
research project
launched in 1987
1990s
•In 1994 Daimler
Benz developed
two cars which
drove alongside
regular traffic on a
3-lane Paris
highway
•In 1995 CMU
NavLab
experiment drove
van across the
U.S. , with
autonomous
control 98% of the
journey
2000s
•DARPA Grand
Challenge
programme
begins in 2004
•Google launches
its driverless cars
project in 2009
•First autonomous
transcontinental
journey in 2010
from Parma (Italy)
to Shanghai
(China)
Research into driverless vehicles started in the 1920s
When driverless cars become mainstream post-2030 it will be the culmination of a century-old dream.
Progress towards full autonomy
Society of Automotive Engineers: standard SAE J3016 defines six
classes of vehicle automation.
Levels of Vehicle Automation
Technology Timeline
Multiple generations of technology will co-exist on our roads for many years.
Overview of ADAS technology
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 11
Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS)
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 12
What is ADAS?
ADAS can be thought of as
a set of technologies
which provide improved
safety to the driver and
other road users:
• LIDAR
• RADAR
• Embedded Vision
• GPS and Digital Mapping
We will talk about these in
detail in Part 2 of the lecture
Examples of ADAS applications
Cruise control
Assisted parking
Collision avoidance
Vehicle navigation
Assisted lane changing
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 13
During the course of the next few slides
we will focus on collision avoidance
mechanisms for CAVs
Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V)
Radar for hazard detection
Status message
V2V messages must be securely
transmitted and processed.
 Reliable
 Encrypted
 Authenticated
 Ensure privacy (no tracking)
Vehicles transmit status messages
to each other to improve traffic
flows and increase safety.
 “Traffic jam ahead”
 “I have just put the brakes on”
 “Ice on the road ahead”
Secure these
wireless links
Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I)
“Spaces available in
Broad Street car
park”
“Road works ahead”
“Traffic lights not
working at junction
ahead”
ROADSIDE UNITS
Status messages can be
transmitted from kerbside
infrastructure to warn of
delays, hazards or provide
useful advice to travellers.
“Road ahead closed.
Turn left at junction”
Secure these
wireless links
Vehicle-to-Person (V2P)
Pedestrians
and joggers
Horses (and
other animals)
Cyclists, scooter
riders and other
2-wheeled transport
Non-vehicular road
users can indicate their
presence by sending
status messages to
oncoming vehicles
Secure these
wireless links
Example: Nissan Leaf
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 17
Nissan Leaf cars avoid collisions by utilising 12 cameras,
five radars and four lasers to enable them to identify
surrounding objects and calculate their position on the
road to within a few centimetres.
ADAS in Action
• ‘Tesla Autopilot predicts collision ahead seconds before
it happens’
– Watch this dashcam recording from within a Tesla car
of a road incident in the Netherlands
– http://www.kurzweilai.net/tesla-autopilot-predicts-
collision-aheads-seconds-before-it-happens
• Thanks to @HansNoordsij , an enthusiastic
champion of Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf
User Experience and Safety issues
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 19
The handover problem
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 20
Partially
autonomous
Fully
autonomous
EVOLUTIONARY
Car will handover
control to the
driver at critical
point in journey
or in event of an
emergency.
REVOLUTIONARY
All decisions are
made by the car.
There is no
requirement for
human intervention
at any point in the
journey.
There are two approaches to
the vehicle autonomy problem
EVOLUTIONARY :: Controlled handover
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 21
 Corresponds to Level 3 of SAE taxonomy
 Favoured by companies such as Tesla, Audi
How it works
• Car has significant
decision making
capabilities.
• It must handover
control to driver in
order to deal with
critical events.
Disadvantages
• Handover to
human may take
5-10 seconds.
• Driver needs to be
fully alert and
ready to take
control.
• Simple idea but
difficult to
implement in
practice
Criticisms
• Level 3 has only
incremental
benefits over Level
2. So may as well
jump to Level 5.
• Humans can place
too much faith in
auto-control and
become
complacent
REVOLUTIONARY :: Full vehicle autonomy
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 22
 Corresponds to Level 5 of SAE taxonomy
 Favoured by companies such as Waymo, Volvo, Uber
How it works
• Car has complete
autonomy over
decision making.
• No requirement to
handover control
to driver at any
point in the
journey.
Advantages
• Brings mobility to
people who
cannot drive.
• Creates entirely
new business
models around
mobility and
vehicle ownership.
Criticisms
• Technically difficult
to achieve.
• There are
significant legal and
regulatory issues to
be addressed.
• Will take many
years to implement
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 23
User Experience (UX) for automotive applications is
an extremely important focus for R&D.
We will have more to say about this topic in Part 2,
after we have discussed Safety standards.
The benefits of CAVs
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 24
The global opportunity
Connected Cars market
represents major growth
opportunity
•Markets & Markets estimate
value of global market to be
worth $47 billion by 2020
( ~ £38 billion at today’s rate)
Greater public safety
•WHO state there were
1.25 million road deaths
globally in 2013
•More than 200,000 people
die through traffic accidents
every years in China alone!
Major economic and
social impact
•Reduction in accident injury
and mortality costs
•More ‘free time’ for car
users
•Changes in urban land use
It all amounts to a major global stimulus for R&D in this sector
The UK opportunity
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 26
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
commissioned a study from KPMG which claimed major
benefits for the UK economy over the period 2014-2030
Audience poll
• You have heard the impressive claims for the social,
economic and environmental benefits of CAV technology.
• QUESTION: what percentage of cars on the road
need to be fully autonomous (driverless) before we
can reap significant benefits of this technology
A. When 25% of all vehicles are driverless
B. When 50% of all vehicles are driverless
C. When 75% of all vehicles are driverless
D. When 100% of all vehicles are driverless
E. Never, it’s just too complicated
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 27
The influence of Public Policy
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 28
The role of UK Government policy
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 29
What are the challenges
faced by UK policy makers?
Policy challenges (1 of 2)
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 30
Safety Testing
Privacy and
Data
Insurance and
Liability
Rules of the
Road
Supporting
Infrastructure
Need to work with
EU and Automotive
industry to develop
standards
Devise rules for
testing autonomous
vehicles on public
roads
Connected cars create
vast quantities of data.
Who owns it? Who has
the right to use it?
Future infrastructure
must support CAVs.
Who will own it?
Who will fund it?
Need to work with
Insurance industry to
develop framework for
CAVs on public roads
Revise the Highway
Code and define
penalties for
infringement
Policy challenges (2 of 2)
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 31
Cybersecurity Telecoms
Regulation
EnvironmentalEthical
Considerations
Social Impact
Electric Vehicles
OFCOM needs to
develop policies which
support growth of CAV
market
Policy for Electric
vehicles must be
developed in parallel
to CAV evolution
There is a growing
threat of malicious
attacks on CAVs and
transport infrastructure
There is a need to
develop a public debate
on the ethics of
autonomous vehicles
Foresight studies are
required to
understand the future
impact of CAVs in
cities and rural areas
We need policies to
ensure that the
environmental benefits
of CAVs are maximised
Policy development is a balancing act
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 32
There is a need to plan over long time-scales
( to 2030 and beyond)
Government needs to build consensus as to
what regulations are in the public interest
Be careful not to stifle innovation with “too
much” regulation in early stages of market
Government must arbitrate between claims of
many competing stakeholder views
Harmful
policies
Helpful
policies
The strategic UK policy goal
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 33
The Government has defined its key policy goal as
making the UK an attractive place for R&D
“The UK is one of the best countries for car makers and others
to develop and test these technologies because of our:
● permissive regulations
● thriving automotive sector
● excellent research base and innovation infrastructure”
Key policy initiatives
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 34
2014
•Regulatory review
by Department of
Transport
•£10m funding of
driverless trials in
Milton Keynes,
Bristol, Greenwich
2015
• £200m funding for
'Intelligent
Mobility'
announced in
budget
•“Pathways to
Driverless Cars”
policy document
•“Code of Practice
for Testing
Autonomous
Vehicles” published
•Announced £20m
competitive fund to
stimulate R&D
•Established the
‘Centre for
Connected and
Autonomous
Vehicles’ (CCAV)
2016
•New rounds of
competitive
funding announced
by Innovate UK
•CCAV publishes
results of
consultation
•Key research
reports published
on CAV and traffic
flow
2017
•Government
publishes the
Vehicle Technology
and Aviation bill
(second reading on
March 6th)
Mission of CCAV
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 35
Mission of the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles
Devise a strategy
to better inform
Government
decision making
about CAVs
STRATEGY
DEVELOPMENT
Provide a single point of
contact within Government
for all external stakeholders
ONE-STOP SHOP
Ensure that
Government
funded projects
meet key policy
objectives
FUNDING
CO-ORDINATION
Review & amend
regulations which
may impede
development of
CAV sector
REGULATORY
REVIEW
Promote dialogue
to reach consensus
on Safety, Data
Security and
Privacy
CRITICAL
FACTORS
Key authorities and projects
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 36
Funding and oversight Demonstration Projects
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 37
LUTZ Pathfinder vehicle
Used in the driverless trials in Milton Keynes
Global perspectives
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 38
USA
Ann Arbor trials began in 2012 conducted by University of Michigan
• Aim was to test the effectiveness of installing collision avoidance technology in
vehicles to reduce accidents on the road.
• Trial was supervised by the University of Michigan Transportation & Research
Institute.
• Motivation was to reduce traffic accident fatalities (~32,000 p.a. in U.S.).
Wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology employed to reduce the number of
collisions between vehicles.
– Can detect sudden braking of vehicle in front.
– Sensor units were installed in 3000 vehicles.
• Wireless vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I ) technology was deployed at major road
junctions.
– Static sensors and responders prevent collisions between vehicles and kerbside infrastructure.
• Initial trial cost $18m dollars to conduct and was judged to be a success
– it was subsequently expanded to include 9000 cars, buses and trucks.
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 39
USA
• May 2015 DoT have mandated that V2V technology be fitted
into all new vehicles, starting in 2016.
• September 2015 DoT have announced budget of $42m
for a 'CV Pilot Deployment Program‘
• Extension of the Ann Arbor trial to New York, Tampa,
Wyoming (east-west highway)
• New York City installed Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) technology in
vehicles that frequently travel in Midtown Manhattan, and
Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) technology throughout
Midtown.
– Up to 10,000 cars and buses will be fitted with this technology
during the next year.
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 40
USA
• MCity – dedicated CAV test site
built by University of Michigan
– Cost $6.5 million to build
– Large 32 acre site
– Opened in July 2015
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 41
MCity is a collaboration between:
• Transportation Research Institute
• Michigan Department of
Transportation
• Automakers - Ford, General
Motors and Toyota
China
• Most of auto-industry is stated owned (often has foreign
partners)
• Boundary between “public policy” and “private projects” can
seem blurred (to an outsider!)
• Some commentators suggest that China has the potential
to overtake the U.S. in driverless car research and
development
– China’s government has the ability to direct lots of capital
into research.
– limit or eliminate exposure of researchers and car makers
to lawsuits
• First large scale commercial launch of fully driverless cars on
public roads may happen in China
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 42
China
• Hongqi HQ3 driverless car - modified
sedan built by the National University of
Defense Technology
• Employs cameras, sensors and onboard
computer (did not use GPS)
• In 2011 this car navigated the route
between Changsha to Wuhan
– 157 mile trip ( 248km ), three-and-a-
half-hour drive
– Included navigating through highway
traffic at an average speed of 54 miles
per hour
– It overtook 67 cars on the journey
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 43
China
• Yutong driverless bus trial
(August 2015)
• Bus navigated between Zhengzou
and Kaifeng
– Distance of 20 miles (32km) with
passengers onboard
– Bus uses laser, radar, and camera
systems on each side of the vehicle
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 44
Germany
• Germany a significant player in the global automotive sector
– Sector spends €34 billion on R&D
– German R&D accounts for one-third of all global research
expenditure on automotive technology
• Federal Ministry of Transport launched an “Automated
Driving” Round Table in 2014
– Aim was to solicit input from broad range of stakeholders
(e.g. Insurance, Government, Auto-makers)
– Modify legal framework to permit testing on public roads (Germany is
signatory to 1968 Vienna Traffic Convention)
– Focus currently on transition from “partially automated” to “highly
automated driving”
– Emphasis on gradual evolution of technology
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 45
Germany
Daimler driverless truck trial (Sept. 2015)
• Trial conducted on specially
designated stretch of autobahn
near Baden-Wurttemberg
• Required approval from the local
state authorities
• Manually driven to trial and then
switched over to auto-drive
• Reached speeds of 50mph
(80km/h)
• Requirement that a human
operator be on board to handle
emergency situations.
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 46
Germany
Wuppertal test zone ( started trials in 2016 )
• U.S. auto-component maker Delphi employs 700 people
in the city
• Delphi is a major supplier of “Vehicle-to-Everything”
collision avoidance technology
• Given approval by Wuppertal city authority to build a
17km long stretch of “test highway”
– The special zone along public highway 418 will offer a realistic
mix of driving situations (e.g. fast stretches, traffic lights and
pedestrian crossings)
– Requirement that a human operator be on board to handle
emergency situations
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 47
How does UK compare?
Level of resources
committed by UK
Government is
dwarfed by countries
such as China,
Germany, U.S. and
corporations such as
Google (Waymo)
U.S. and China less
hampered by
ideology when it
comes to promotion
of strategic industrial
goals
Most charitable
assessment is that
Government is being
brutally realistic
about what it can
achieve
UK unlikely to be a
major player in this
market as it is
arguably over-
dependent on inward
investment and
overseas R&D
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 48
Dawn of a new age
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 49
The Declaration of Amsterdam
In April 2016 the Transport ministers of all EU nations
gathered in Amsterdam. The purpose of the meeting was
to sign an agreement which commits all member states
to a common agenda that will allow autonomous vehicles
to be driven on the roads of Europe.
Emerging opportunities from data
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 50
The automotive data lake
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 51
Connected and autonomous vehicles (cars, taxis, trucks, buses) are
expected to generate great lakes of data
Image source: Intel
The value of automotive data
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 52
$750 billion
The overall value of car
data revenue may be worth
by 2030
Source: “Monetizing car data”, McKinsey
(September 2016)
CAUTION: take this estimate
with a pinch of salt
There are many legal, privacy
and regulatory hurdles which
constrain these ambitions.
For this reason, a degree of
healthy scepticism is advisable.
Potential applications
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 53
Here are a few examples of Big Data applications built using automotive data
Real-time traffic
management
Parking
availability
Vehicle
performance data
for predictive
maintenance
Data to inform
road
maintenance
Tailored in-car
advertising
PAYG insurance
policies
Location based
retail
promotion
Resale of
aggregated data
Real-time
navigation
A role for AI and machine learning
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 54
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already used in automotive applications such as
Smart Parking, Driver alertness monitoring, Automated lane changing.
Audi and Nvidia have announced
partnership to bring AI-controlled
car to market by 2020 (SAE Level 4)
Audi virtual cockpitAudi AI test vehicle
Other auto-makers such as BMW, Volvo,
Toyota and Mercedes are exploring use
of AI / ML in connected cars
These types of AI applications employ neural networks. These need to be trained
using large data sets, hence a role for Cloud Computing and Big Data.
Obstacles to market development
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 55
Data Privacy
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 56
Who ‘owns’ data generated by (and within) a vehicle?
How much say should people have about personal data is used?
Should people be concerned about ‘anonymised’ data?
Does it matter in which jurisdiction data is stored?
Who should have access to this personal data?
These are a
sample of the
many issues
that must be
addressed.
The forthcoming
EU General Data
Protection
Regulations will
provide new
safeguards to
protect personal
data.
Trust in technology
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 57
How do you feel about being driven by a robot chauffeur?
How would react if your child was killed by a self-driving car?
What if you think driving is “fun” and you hate driverless cars?
Perhaps you fear gridlock due to massive cyber-attacks?
How would you feel if you learned that personal data had been stolen?
What if driverless cars destroyed your means of livelihood?
There are many valid reasons to mistrust Connected and Driverless cars.
Infrastructure needs
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 58
Maximum benefit of CAVs will require significant investment in new road and
communications infrastructure
LONG TIME-
SCALES FOR
PLANNING AND
OPERATIONS
CAVs NEED
UNIVERSAL 4G
AND 5G MOBILE
COVERAGE
BILLIONS OF £
WORTH OF
INVESTMENT
REQUIRED
NEED FOR GLOBAL
AGREEMENT ON
STANDARDS
• 10-20 years to
plan and build
• 30+ years of
operational life
• Technology will
evolve rapidly
in that time
frame
• Risk of economic
isolation for
‘unconnected’
communities
• What policy
interventions are
required?
• Who will pay for
infrastructure?
• Who will own the
infrastructure?
• What operating
models will be
used?
• Need for
detailed pan-
European
framework
• Desirable to
have broad
international
agreement
Cybersecurity
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 59
Rigorous cybersecurity technologies and policy frameworks are needed to
protect connected vehicles and infrastructure.
PROVEN
ATTACKS
MULTIPLE
MOTIVES
THEFT
OF DATA
INFEASIBLE
TO TEST
Potential for
major invasions
of personal
privacy and abuse
of stolen data.
There have
been a number
of well
documented
attacks on
connected
vehicles (such
as the Jeep and
Tesla attacks)
Sheer complexity
of software and
hardware in CAV
designs mean that
it is impossible to
guarantee safety
and security.
Numerous
criminal, activist
groups and
nation states
involved in large
scale cyber-hacks.
UK lags well behind other countries in developing policies to defend against
cyber-attacks on connected vehicles and transport infrastructure.
Ethical questions
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 60
Source: http://moralmachine.mit.edu
The MIT Moral Machine website allows
you to work through these kind of issues
for yourself.
A dog funs out into the road, followed by a
distraught child. What should the driverless
car do?
1. Run over the dog (and spare the child)
2. Run over the child (and spare the dog)
3. Swerve left onto the pavement
(and risk killing pedestrians or
collide with a lamp-post)
4. Swerve right and risk collision with
oncoming vehicles
This is a legal and ethical minefield!
Insurance and liability
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 61
The insurance industry
faces many disruptive
challenges. These are
driven by:
• Rapid technological
changes
• Changing demographics
• Shifting social attitudes
towards car ownership
LIABILITY FOR
ACCIDENTS
BUSINESS
MODELS
CLAIMS
PROCESSING
VEHICLE
SHARING
Driver of ADAS vehicle will still need
insurance. Liability for driverless cars
will shift to manufacturer.
Onboard tracking units have enabled
insurers to offer ‘Pay per Trip’
insurance coverage.
Onboard vehicle “black box” will
record data which led up to an
accident. Simpler claims resolution.
Insurance B2C market may contract
over time due to declining car
ownership and rise in car sharing.
Most commentators
predict that the global
insurance industry will
be forced to adapt to
this new future. Expect
some established
players to ‘disappear’.
Audience poll
• You have learned about a number of issues which will
impede the adoption of driverless cars
• QUESTION: having heard the evidence, which of
these issues to you feel is the No.1 show-stopper?
1. Data privacy
2. Trust in the technology
3. Regulations
4. Cyber security
5. Ethical questions
6. Insurance and liability
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 62
What the future holds
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 63
The future of urban mobility
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 64
PEAK CARURBANISATION ELECTRIFICATION
AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLES
Driverless cars,
vans, trucks,
taxis, buses and
rail transit
systems will
revolutionise
urban transport
networks.
A number of global factors are reshaping the future of urban mobility
Rising population
and growth of
mega-cities has
created major
challenge for
urban mobility.
• Air Pollution
• Congestion
• Traffic
accidents
‘Peak car’ usage
may have already
happened in
some developed
countries.
Demand for car
ownership
continues to rise
in developing
nations.
Electrification of
urban transport
vehicles requires:
• Installation of
charging points
• Upgrade in
capacity of
local electricity
grid
• More clean
sources of
energy
Mobility as a service
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 65
Mobility
Services
Bike
rental
Ride
hailing
Ride
sharing
Buses
Light
rail
Walking
Cycling
RECOMMENDATION
Think about the role that CAVs
could play in a broader redesign of
urban transport systems.
• Smartphone apps provide
better transport service
information
• New business models give rise
to services such as ‘Ride hailing’
of driverless cars
• Better access to travel
information promotes easier
‘multi-modal’ journeys
The car of the future
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 66
https://www.toyota.com/concept-i/ http://www.discover-sedric.com/en/
All major motor manufacturers are developing futuristic ‘concept cars’.
Here are two examples from Toyota and Volkswagen.
The taxi of the future
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 67
There seems to be universal consensus that driverless taxis are the way forward.
In fact, they are already being trialled in major cities around the world.
http://nutonomy.com/
nuTonomy ( Singapore ) Uber (Pittsburgh, USA)
http://uber.com
The transport revolution
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 68
Driverless trains on metro networks and light rail systems have been around for
many years. But now the stage is set for a major Transport Revolution.
Driverless buses
Driverless trucks Rolls Royce autonomous ship Commuter drones
Hyperloop
Social and political impact
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 69
Economic impact
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 70
INNOCENT
BYSTANDERS
THE DRIVERLESS
ECONOMY
Millions of unskilled workers
around the world rely on driving
jobs to make a living. What kind
of work will they do instead?
Many other occupations such as
car mechanics, hospitality
workers and insurance back-
office staff could lose their jobs.
Expect the deployment of autonomous vehicles to disrupt existing patterns of
employment. This is true for both driving occupations and ancillary trades.
Impact on cities
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 71
Driverless vehicles are expected to have a huge impact on the way future cities are
designed and operated.
Improved
traffic flows
More options
for personal
mobility
Less need
for on-street
parking
Better air
quality
Fewer road
accidents
More green
space (fewer
car parks)
URBAN
SPRAWL
FEWER PEOPLE
USE PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
POTENTIAL BENEFITS RISKS
GREATER
SOCIAL
EXCLUSION
Political impact
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 72
As with all disruptive change, there will be
winners and losers.
• It’s inevitable that there will be social
and political changes (both good and bad)
• We need to adopt a “systems thinking”
approach and consider the social impact of
these changes
Final conclusions
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 73
After a century of research, driverless cars are about to become reality.
The SAE model provides a way to discuss the evolutionary path towards
driverless cars
ADAS technology is widely used today and provides an important stepping
stone towards the goal of fully autonomous vehicles
The UK government seeks to make the UK a major centre for R&D for
autonomous vehicles (expect fierce global competition)
Smooth adoption of driverless technology is by no means certain. There are
many practical, legal and ethical issues which need to be addressed.
Driverless cars are part of a broader Transport Revolution which will transform
the cities of the future.
The driverless future will bring many benefits but also the possibility of social
and political upheaval due to loss of driving as a source of employment.
Final audience poll
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 74
Which of these three propositions do you most agree with?
1. I would prefer to be able to sit behind the wheel of
a car and drive to my destination
2. I would prefer to relax in an autonomous car and
let it drive me to my destination
3. I am undecided as to which option I prefer at this
point in time
Advanced System Technologies
in Urban Spaces™
28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 75

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Introduction to Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles

  • 1. Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles A guide for happy motorists and contented passengers 128/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles Part 1 Introduction to the world of Connected Cars and Autonomous Vehicles
  • 2. About this presentation 2 This presentation was given to students and academic staff on March 28th 2017 at the University of Portsmouth. ©2017 Astius Technology Systems Ltd 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
  • 3. Bill Harpley MSc • 30+ years in technology sector • Founder of Astius Technology • Organizer of Brighton IoT meetup group (700+ members) • Initiator of Brighton node of the global Things Network • Organizer of the Self-driving Cars & Autonomous Vehicles meetup group https://uk.linkedin.com/in/billharpley bill.harpley@astius.co.uk www.astius.co.uk 328/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
  • 4. 428/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 1. The evolution of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) 2. An overview of Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS) 3. User Experience and Safety issues 4. The benefits of CAVs 5. The influence of public policy 6. The global race towards deployment 7. Emerging opportunities from data 8. Obstacles to market development 9. What the future holds 10. Social and political impact
  • 5. Evolution of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) 528/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles
  • 6. A century of innovation • Both the Model-T of 1910 and the Tesla electric car of 2016 represent truly transformational technologies. • Expect the evolution from ‘manual’ to ‘connected’ vehicles to be every bit as revolutionary as the shift away from ‘horse powered’ transport more than a century ago.
  • 7. Key milestones towards driverless cars 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 7 1950s •RCA Labs steer model vehicles using embedded tracks •General Motors Firebird concept car •Chrysler Imperial is first car with cruise control 1960s •UK Transport Research Lab develop driverless Citroen car •Ohio State University launch project to develop driverless cars, activated by electronic devices embedded in the road •Stanford University develop AI Laboratory Cart 1970s •Funding for UK Transport Research Lab experiment withdrawn in 1970s 1980s •In US the DARPA funded Autonomous Land Vehicle project launched •EU EUREKA Prometheus’ driverless vehicle research project launched in 1987 1990s •In 1994 Daimler Benz developed two cars which drove alongside regular traffic on a 3-lane Paris highway •In 1995 CMU NavLab experiment drove van across the U.S. , with autonomous control 98% of the journey 2000s •DARPA Grand Challenge programme begins in 2004 •Google launches its driverless cars project in 2009 •First autonomous transcontinental journey in 2010 from Parma (Italy) to Shanghai (China) Research into driverless vehicles started in the 1920s When driverless cars become mainstream post-2030 it will be the culmination of a century-old dream.
  • 8. Progress towards full autonomy Society of Automotive Engineers: standard SAE J3016 defines six classes of vehicle automation.
  • 9. Levels of Vehicle Automation
  • 10. Technology Timeline Multiple generations of technology will co-exist on our roads for many years.
  • 11. Overview of ADAS technology 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 11
  • 12. Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 12 What is ADAS? ADAS can be thought of as a set of technologies which provide improved safety to the driver and other road users: • LIDAR • RADAR • Embedded Vision • GPS and Digital Mapping We will talk about these in detail in Part 2 of the lecture Examples of ADAS applications Cruise control Assisted parking Collision avoidance Vehicle navigation Assisted lane changing
  • 13. 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 13 During the course of the next few slides we will focus on collision avoidance mechanisms for CAVs
  • 14. Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) Radar for hazard detection Status message V2V messages must be securely transmitted and processed.  Reliable  Encrypted  Authenticated  Ensure privacy (no tracking) Vehicles transmit status messages to each other to improve traffic flows and increase safety.  “Traffic jam ahead”  “I have just put the brakes on”  “Ice on the road ahead” Secure these wireless links
  • 15. Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) “Spaces available in Broad Street car park” “Road works ahead” “Traffic lights not working at junction ahead” ROADSIDE UNITS Status messages can be transmitted from kerbside infrastructure to warn of delays, hazards or provide useful advice to travellers. “Road ahead closed. Turn left at junction” Secure these wireless links
  • 16. Vehicle-to-Person (V2P) Pedestrians and joggers Horses (and other animals) Cyclists, scooter riders and other 2-wheeled transport Non-vehicular road users can indicate their presence by sending status messages to oncoming vehicles Secure these wireless links
  • 17. Example: Nissan Leaf 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 17 Nissan Leaf cars avoid collisions by utilising 12 cameras, five radars and four lasers to enable them to identify surrounding objects and calculate their position on the road to within a few centimetres.
  • 18. ADAS in Action • ‘Tesla Autopilot predicts collision ahead seconds before it happens’ – Watch this dashcam recording from within a Tesla car of a road incident in the Netherlands – http://www.kurzweilai.net/tesla-autopilot-predicts- collision-aheads-seconds-before-it-happens • Thanks to @HansNoordsij , an enthusiastic champion of Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf
  • 19. User Experience and Safety issues 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 19
  • 20. The handover problem 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 20 Partially autonomous Fully autonomous EVOLUTIONARY Car will handover control to the driver at critical point in journey or in event of an emergency. REVOLUTIONARY All decisions are made by the car. There is no requirement for human intervention at any point in the journey. There are two approaches to the vehicle autonomy problem
  • 21. EVOLUTIONARY :: Controlled handover 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 21  Corresponds to Level 3 of SAE taxonomy  Favoured by companies such as Tesla, Audi How it works • Car has significant decision making capabilities. • It must handover control to driver in order to deal with critical events. Disadvantages • Handover to human may take 5-10 seconds. • Driver needs to be fully alert and ready to take control. • Simple idea but difficult to implement in practice Criticisms • Level 3 has only incremental benefits over Level 2. So may as well jump to Level 5. • Humans can place too much faith in auto-control and become complacent
  • 22. REVOLUTIONARY :: Full vehicle autonomy 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 22  Corresponds to Level 5 of SAE taxonomy  Favoured by companies such as Waymo, Volvo, Uber How it works • Car has complete autonomy over decision making. • No requirement to handover control to driver at any point in the journey. Advantages • Brings mobility to people who cannot drive. • Creates entirely new business models around mobility and vehicle ownership. Criticisms • Technically difficult to achieve. • There are significant legal and regulatory issues to be addressed. • Will take many years to implement
  • 23. 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 23 User Experience (UX) for automotive applications is an extremely important focus for R&D. We will have more to say about this topic in Part 2, after we have discussed Safety standards.
  • 24. The benefits of CAVs 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 24
  • 25. The global opportunity Connected Cars market represents major growth opportunity •Markets & Markets estimate value of global market to be worth $47 billion by 2020 ( ~ £38 billion at today’s rate) Greater public safety •WHO state there were 1.25 million road deaths globally in 2013 •More than 200,000 people die through traffic accidents every years in China alone! Major economic and social impact •Reduction in accident injury and mortality costs •More ‘free time’ for car users •Changes in urban land use It all amounts to a major global stimulus for R&D in this sector
  • 26. The UK opportunity 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 26 Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) commissioned a study from KPMG which claimed major benefits for the UK economy over the period 2014-2030
  • 27. Audience poll • You have heard the impressive claims for the social, economic and environmental benefits of CAV technology. • QUESTION: what percentage of cars on the road need to be fully autonomous (driverless) before we can reap significant benefits of this technology A. When 25% of all vehicles are driverless B. When 50% of all vehicles are driverless C. When 75% of all vehicles are driverless D. When 100% of all vehicles are driverless E. Never, it’s just too complicated 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 27
  • 28. The influence of Public Policy 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 28
  • 29. The role of UK Government policy 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 29 What are the challenges faced by UK policy makers?
  • 30. Policy challenges (1 of 2) 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 30 Safety Testing Privacy and Data Insurance and Liability Rules of the Road Supporting Infrastructure Need to work with EU and Automotive industry to develop standards Devise rules for testing autonomous vehicles on public roads Connected cars create vast quantities of data. Who owns it? Who has the right to use it? Future infrastructure must support CAVs. Who will own it? Who will fund it? Need to work with Insurance industry to develop framework for CAVs on public roads Revise the Highway Code and define penalties for infringement
  • 31. Policy challenges (2 of 2) 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 31 Cybersecurity Telecoms Regulation EnvironmentalEthical Considerations Social Impact Electric Vehicles OFCOM needs to develop policies which support growth of CAV market Policy for Electric vehicles must be developed in parallel to CAV evolution There is a growing threat of malicious attacks on CAVs and transport infrastructure There is a need to develop a public debate on the ethics of autonomous vehicles Foresight studies are required to understand the future impact of CAVs in cities and rural areas We need policies to ensure that the environmental benefits of CAVs are maximised
  • 32. Policy development is a balancing act 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 32 There is a need to plan over long time-scales ( to 2030 and beyond) Government needs to build consensus as to what regulations are in the public interest Be careful not to stifle innovation with “too much” regulation in early stages of market Government must arbitrate between claims of many competing stakeholder views Harmful policies Helpful policies
  • 33. The strategic UK policy goal 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 33 The Government has defined its key policy goal as making the UK an attractive place for R&D “The UK is one of the best countries for car makers and others to develop and test these technologies because of our: ● permissive regulations ● thriving automotive sector ● excellent research base and innovation infrastructure”
  • 34. Key policy initiatives 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 34 2014 •Regulatory review by Department of Transport •£10m funding of driverless trials in Milton Keynes, Bristol, Greenwich 2015 • £200m funding for 'Intelligent Mobility' announced in budget •“Pathways to Driverless Cars” policy document •“Code of Practice for Testing Autonomous Vehicles” published •Announced £20m competitive fund to stimulate R&D •Established the ‘Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles’ (CCAV) 2016 •New rounds of competitive funding announced by Innovate UK •CCAV publishes results of consultation •Key research reports published on CAV and traffic flow 2017 •Government publishes the Vehicle Technology and Aviation bill (second reading on March 6th)
  • 35. Mission of CCAV 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 35 Mission of the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Devise a strategy to better inform Government decision making about CAVs STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT Provide a single point of contact within Government for all external stakeholders ONE-STOP SHOP Ensure that Government funded projects meet key policy objectives FUNDING CO-ORDINATION Review & amend regulations which may impede development of CAV sector REGULATORY REVIEW Promote dialogue to reach consensus on Safety, Data Security and Privacy CRITICAL FACTORS
  • 36. Key authorities and projects 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 36 Funding and oversight Demonstration Projects
  • 37. 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 37 LUTZ Pathfinder vehicle Used in the driverless trials in Milton Keynes
  • 38. Global perspectives 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 38
  • 39. USA Ann Arbor trials began in 2012 conducted by University of Michigan • Aim was to test the effectiveness of installing collision avoidance technology in vehicles to reduce accidents on the road. • Trial was supervised by the University of Michigan Transportation & Research Institute. • Motivation was to reduce traffic accident fatalities (~32,000 p.a. in U.S.). Wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology employed to reduce the number of collisions between vehicles. – Can detect sudden braking of vehicle in front. – Sensor units were installed in 3000 vehicles. • Wireless vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I ) technology was deployed at major road junctions. – Static sensors and responders prevent collisions between vehicles and kerbside infrastructure. • Initial trial cost $18m dollars to conduct and was judged to be a success – it was subsequently expanded to include 9000 cars, buses and trucks. 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 39
  • 40. USA • May 2015 DoT have mandated that V2V technology be fitted into all new vehicles, starting in 2016. • September 2015 DoT have announced budget of $42m for a 'CV Pilot Deployment Program‘ • Extension of the Ann Arbor trial to New York, Tampa, Wyoming (east-west highway) • New York City installed Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) technology in vehicles that frequently travel in Midtown Manhattan, and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) technology throughout Midtown. – Up to 10,000 cars and buses will be fitted with this technology during the next year. 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 40
  • 41. USA • MCity – dedicated CAV test site built by University of Michigan – Cost $6.5 million to build – Large 32 acre site – Opened in July 2015 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 41 MCity is a collaboration between: • Transportation Research Institute • Michigan Department of Transportation • Automakers - Ford, General Motors and Toyota
  • 42. China • Most of auto-industry is stated owned (often has foreign partners) • Boundary between “public policy” and “private projects” can seem blurred (to an outsider!) • Some commentators suggest that China has the potential to overtake the U.S. in driverless car research and development – China’s government has the ability to direct lots of capital into research. – limit or eliminate exposure of researchers and car makers to lawsuits • First large scale commercial launch of fully driverless cars on public roads may happen in China 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 42
  • 43. China • Hongqi HQ3 driverless car - modified sedan built by the National University of Defense Technology • Employs cameras, sensors and onboard computer (did not use GPS) • In 2011 this car navigated the route between Changsha to Wuhan – 157 mile trip ( 248km ), three-and-a- half-hour drive – Included navigating through highway traffic at an average speed of 54 miles per hour – It overtook 67 cars on the journey 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 43
  • 44. China • Yutong driverless bus trial (August 2015) • Bus navigated between Zhengzou and Kaifeng – Distance of 20 miles (32km) with passengers onboard – Bus uses laser, radar, and camera systems on each side of the vehicle 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 44
  • 45. Germany • Germany a significant player in the global automotive sector – Sector spends €34 billion on R&D – German R&D accounts for one-third of all global research expenditure on automotive technology • Federal Ministry of Transport launched an “Automated Driving” Round Table in 2014 – Aim was to solicit input from broad range of stakeholders (e.g. Insurance, Government, Auto-makers) – Modify legal framework to permit testing on public roads (Germany is signatory to 1968 Vienna Traffic Convention) – Focus currently on transition from “partially automated” to “highly automated driving” – Emphasis on gradual evolution of technology 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 45
  • 46. Germany Daimler driverless truck trial (Sept. 2015) • Trial conducted on specially designated stretch of autobahn near Baden-Wurttemberg • Required approval from the local state authorities • Manually driven to trial and then switched over to auto-drive • Reached speeds of 50mph (80km/h) • Requirement that a human operator be on board to handle emergency situations. 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 46
  • 47. Germany Wuppertal test zone ( started trials in 2016 ) • U.S. auto-component maker Delphi employs 700 people in the city • Delphi is a major supplier of “Vehicle-to-Everything” collision avoidance technology • Given approval by Wuppertal city authority to build a 17km long stretch of “test highway” – The special zone along public highway 418 will offer a realistic mix of driving situations (e.g. fast stretches, traffic lights and pedestrian crossings) – Requirement that a human operator be on board to handle emergency situations 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 47
  • 48. How does UK compare? Level of resources committed by UK Government is dwarfed by countries such as China, Germany, U.S. and corporations such as Google (Waymo) U.S. and China less hampered by ideology when it comes to promotion of strategic industrial goals Most charitable assessment is that Government is being brutally realistic about what it can achieve UK unlikely to be a major player in this market as it is arguably over- dependent on inward investment and overseas R&D 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 48
  • 49. Dawn of a new age 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 49 The Declaration of Amsterdam In April 2016 the Transport ministers of all EU nations gathered in Amsterdam. The purpose of the meeting was to sign an agreement which commits all member states to a common agenda that will allow autonomous vehicles to be driven on the roads of Europe.
  • 50. Emerging opportunities from data 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 50
  • 51. The automotive data lake 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 51 Connected and autonomous vehicles (cars, taxis, trucks, buses) are expected to generate great lakes of data Image source: Intel
  • 52. The value of automotive data 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 52 $750 billion The overall value of car data revenue may be worth by 2030 Source: “Monetizing car data”, McKinsey (September 2016) CAUTION: take this estimate with a pinch of salt There are many legal, privacy and regulatory hurdles which constrain these ambitions. For this reason, a degree of healthy scepticism is advisable.
  • 53. Potential applications 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 53 Here are a few examples of Big Data applications built using automotive data Real-time traffic management Parking availability Vehicle performance data for predictive maintenance Data to inform road maintenance Tailored in-car advertising PAYG insurance policies Location based retail promotion Resale of aggregated data Real-time navigation
  • 54. A role for AI and machine learning 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 54 Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already used in automotive applications such as Smart Parking, Driver alertness monitoring, Automated lane changing. Audi and Nvidia have announced partnership to bring AI-controlled car to market by 2020 (SAE Level 4) Audi virtual cockpitAudi AI test vehicle Other auto-makers such as BMW, Volvo, Toyota and Mercedes are exploring use of AI / ML in connected cars These types of AI applications employ neural networks. These need to be trained using large data sets, hence a role for Cloud Computing and Big Data.
  • 55. Obstacles to market development 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 55
  • 56. Data Privacy 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 56 Who ‘owns’ data generated by (and within) a vehicle? How much say should people have about personal data is used? Should people be concerned about ‘anonymised’ data? Does it matter in which jurisdiction data is stored? Who should have access to this personal data? These are a sample of the many issues that must be addressed. The forthcoming EU General Data Protection Regulations will provide new safeguards to protect personal data.
  • 57. Trust in technology 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 57 How do you feel about being driven by a robot chauffeur? How would react if your child was killed by a self-driving car? What if you think driving is “fun” and you hate driverless cars? Perhaps you fear gridlock due to massive cyber-attacks? How would you feel if you learned that personal data had been stolen? What if driverless cars destroyed your means of livelihood? There are many valid reasons to mistrust Connected and Driverless cars.
  • 58. Infrastructure needs 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 58 Maximum benefit of CAVs will require significant investment in new road and communications infrastructure LONG TIME- SCALES FOR PLANNING AND OPERATIONS CAVs NEED UNIVERSAL 4G AND 5G MOBILE COVERAGE BILLIONS OF £ WORTH OF INVESTMENT REQUIRED NEED FOR GLOBAL AGREEMENT ON STANDARDS • 10-20 years to plan and build • 30+ years of operational life • Technology will evolve rapidly in that time frame • Risk of economic isolation for ‘unconnected’ communities • What policy interventions are required? • Who will pay for infrastructure? • Who will own the infrastructure? • What operating models will be used? • Need for detailed pan- European framework • Desirable to have broad international agreement
  • 59. Cybersecurity 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 59 Rigorous cybersecurity technologies and policy frameworks are needed to protect connected vehicles and infrastructure. PROVEN ATTACKS MULTIPLE MOTIVES THEFT OF DATA INFEASIBLE TO TEST Potential for major invasions of personal privacy and abuse of stolen data. There have been a number of well documented attacks on connected vehicles (such as the Jeep and Tesla attacks) Sheer complexity of software and hardware in CAV designs mean that it is impossible to guarantee safety and security. Numerous criminal, activist groups and nation states involved in large scale cyber-hacks. UK lags well behind other countries in developing policies to defend against cyber-attacks on connected vehicles and transport infrastructure.
  • 60. Ethical questions 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 60 Source: http://moralmachine.mit.edu The MIT Moral Machine website allows you to work through these kind of issues for yourself. A dog funs out into the road, followed by a distraught child. What should the driverless car do? 1. Run over the dog (and spare the child) 2. Run over the child (and spare the dog) 3. Swerve left onto the pavement (and risk killing pedestrians or collide with a lamp-post) 4. Swerve right and risk collision with oncoming vehicles This is a legal and ethical minefield!
  • 61. Insurance and liability 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 61 The insurance industry faces many disruptive challenges. These are driven by: • Rapid technological changes • Changing demographics • Shifting social attitudes towards car ownership LIABILITY FOR ACCIDENTS BUSINESS MODELS CLAIMS PROCESSING VEHICLE SHARING Driver of ADAS vehicle will still need insurance. Liability for driverless cars will shift to manufacturer. Onboard tracking units have enabled insurers to offer ‘Pay per Trip’ insurance coverage. Onboard vehicle “black box” will record data which led up to an accident. Simpler claims resolution. Insurance B2C market may contract over time due to declining car ownership and rise in car sharing. Most commentators predict that the global insurance industry will be forced to adapt to this new future. Expect some established players to ‘disappear’.
  • 62. Audience poll • You have learned about a number of issues which will impede the adoption of driverless cars • QUESTION: having heard the evidence, which of these issues to you feel is the No.1 show-stopper? 1. Data privacy 2. Trust in the technology 3. Regulations 4. Cyber security 5. Ethical questions 6. Insurance and liability 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 62
  • 63. What the future holds 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 63
  • 64. The future of urban mobility 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 64 PEAK CARURBANISATION ELECTRIFICATION AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Driverless cars, vans, trucks, taxis, buses and rail transit systems will revolutionise urban transport networks. A number of global factors are reshaping the future of urban mobility Rising population and growth of mega-cities has created major challenge for urban mobility. • Air Pollution • Congestion • Traffic accidents ‘Peak car’ usage may have already happened in some developed countries. Demand for car ownership continues to rise in developing nations. Electrification of urban transport vehicles requires: • Installation of charging points • Upgrade in capacity of local electricity grid • More clean sources of energy
  • 65. Mobility as a service 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 65 Mobility Services Bike rental Ride hailing Ride sharing Buses Light rail Walking Cycling RECOMMENDATION Think about the role that CAVs could play in a broader redesign of urban transport systems. • Smartphone apps provide better transport service information • New business models give rise to services such as ‘Ride hailing’ of driverless cars • Better access to travel information promotes easier ‘multi-modal’ journeys
  • 66. The car of the future 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 66 https://www.toyota.com/concept-i/ http://www.discover-sedric.com/en/ All major motor manufacturers are developing futuristic ‘concept cars’. Here are two examples from Toyota and Volkswagen.
  • 67. The taxi of the future 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 67 There seems to be universal consensus that driverless taxis are the way forward. In fact, they are already being trialled in major cities around the world. http://nutonomy.com/ nuTonomy ( Singapore ) Uber (Pittsburgh, USA) http://uber.com
  • 68. The transport revolution 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 68 Driverless trains on metro networks and light rail systems have been around for many years. But now the stage is set for a major Transport Revolution. Driverless buses Driverless trucks Rolls Royce autonomous ship Commuter drones Hyperloop
  • 69. Social and political impact 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 69
  • 70. Economic impact 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 70 INNOCENT BYSTANDERS THE DRIVERLESS ECONOMY Millions of unskilled workers around the world rely on driving jobs to make a living. What kind of work will they do instead? Many other occupations such as car mechanics, hospitality workers and insurance back- office staff could lose their jobs. Expect the deployment of autonomous vehicles to disrupt existing patterns of employment. This is true for both driving occupations and ancillary trades.
  • 71. Impact on cities 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 71 Driverless vehicles are expected to have a huge impact on the way future cities are designed and operated. Improved traffic flows More options for personal mobility Less need for on-street parking Better air quality Fewer road accidents More green space (fewer car parks) URBAN SPRAWL FEWER PEOPLE USE PUBLIC TRANSPORT POTENTIAL BENEFITS RISKS GREATER SOCIAL EXCLUSION
  • 72. Political impact 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 72 As with all disruptive change, there will be winners and losers. • It’s inevitable that there will be social and political changes (both good and bad) • We need to adopt a “systems thinking” approach and consider the social impact of these changes
  • 73. Final conclusions 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 73 After a century of research, driverless cars are about to become reality. The SAE model provides a way to discuss the evolutionary path towards driverless cars ADAS technology is widely used today and provides an important stepping stone towards the goal of fully autonomous vehicles The UK government seeks to make the UK a major centre for R&D for autonomous vehicles (expect fierce global competition) Smooth adoption of driverless technology is by no means certain. There are many practical, legal and ethical issues which need to be addressed. Driverless cars are part of a broader Transport Revolution which will transform the cities of the future. The driverless future will bring many benefits but also the possibility of social and political upheaval due to loss of driving as a source of employment.
  • 74. Final audience poll 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 74 Which of these three propositions do you most agree with? 1. I would prefer to be able to sit behind the wheel of a car and drive to my destination 2. I would prefer to relax in an autonomous car and let it drive me to my destination 3. I am undecided as to which option I prefer at this point in time
  • 75. Advanced System Technologies in Urban Spaces™ 28/03/2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles 75