1. Market Perspective 2001 TO N G YANG SECURITIES
๋์์ฆ๊ถ ๋ฆฌ์์นํ 5
2001๋ ์ฃผ์์์ฅ ์ ๋ต
Executive Summary
Macro Synopsis
์ธ๊ณ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ๋ํ๋ก ์ธํด ๊ทธ ๋์ ์ ์ธ๊ณ์ ๊ฑธ์ณ ํ์ฐ๋์๋ ๊ธฐ์ ํ์ ์ ์ํ ์ง์์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ ์ด
์ต ์ฑ์ฅ์ ๋ํ ์ฅ๋ฏธ๋น ๊ธฐ๋๊ฐ ์ฌ์กฐ๋ช ๋๊ณ ์์. ์ด๋ ๊ทธ ๋์ ์ธ๊ณ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ํ ์ถ์ ์ด๋ฃจ๊ณ ์
์๋ ์ฃผ์์์ฅ์ ๋ํ ์์๊ธฐ๋์์ต๋ฅ ํ๋ฝ์ผ๋ก ์ด์ด์ง ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ์์. ์ด์์ ๋๊ฐ์ง ์์ธ์ผ๋ก
์ธํด ์ ์ง๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์ ๋ค์ ํฌ์๋ ์๋นํ ์์ถ๋ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ๋ณด์ด๋ฉฐ ๊ทธ๋ก ์ธํด ๊ทธ ๋์ ๊ตญ๋ด ์ฐ์ ์์ฐ
์ ์ง์งํด ์๋ ์์ถ ๋ถ๋ฌธ์ ๋์ ์ฆ๊ฐ์ธ๊ฐ ๊ธ๊ฒฉํ๊ฒ ๋ํ๋ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ์์๋จ. ๊ทธ๋ฌ๋ ์ธ๊ณ๊ฒฝ์
์ ์ฐ์ฐฉ๋ฅ ๊ฐ์ ํ์ ์ด๋ฌํ ๋ถ์ ์ ์ธ ์์ธ๋ค๋ 1/4๋ถ๊ธฐ ์ดํ ์ ์ง์ ์ผ๋ก ๊ฐ์ ๋ ์ ์์ ๊ฒ์ผ
๋ก ๋ณด์. ๊ทธ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์๋ ์ด์ ์ํ๊ธฐ์ ๋นํด ์ธ๊ณ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ์ฒด์ง์ด ๊ฐ์ ๋์๊ณ , ๊ธฐ์ ๋ค์ ์๊ธฐ ๋์
๋ฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๋์ ๋๊ฒ ํฅ์๋์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ์์ง๋ IT ํฌ์์ ์ ๋์์ค์ด ์ธ๊ณ์ ์ผ๋ก ๋์ง ์์์ ๋ค ์
์์. ๊ทธ๋ก ์ธํด 2/4๋ถ๊ธฐ ์ดํ ์ฐ๋ฆฌ๋๋ผ ์์ถ๋ ๋ค์๊ธ ํ๋ณตํ๋ ๋ชจ์ต์ ๋ณด์ผ ์ ์์ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก
์์
Valuation
1999๋ ํ๊ตญ์์ฅ์ ๋์ ์ฃผ๊ฐ์์ค์ ์ธ๊ณ๊ฒฝ์ ์ Goldilocks(๊ฒฝ์ ์ ์ด์์ ์ธ ๊ท ํ์ํ) ํ์
๊ณผ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์กฐ์ ์ ๋ํ ์ฅ๋ฏธ๋น ๊ธฐ๋๊ฐ์ด ๋น์ด๋ธ ๊ทนํ ๋๊ด์ ์ธ ์ ๋ง์ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์์. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฃผ์์์ฅ์
๊ณ ํ๊ฐ ์ธ์์ด ํ์ฐ๋๋ฉด์ ์ง๊ธ์ ๊ทธ ์ ๋ฐ๋์ ๋ถ์๊ธฐ๊ฐ ํ๊ตญ์ฃผ์์์ฅ์ ์ง๋ฐฐํ๊ณ ์์. ์ธ๊ณ
Strategist Alfred Park (02)3770-2306 Alfred@myasset.com
MACRO
Combined risk of economic slowdown and
rising pressure on inflation in the 1st quarter
of 2001 in the developed countries
Lackluster domestic demand
Continued pricing pressure
MICRO
Uncertainty for restructuring payoff
Lack of shareholder activism
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE ANALYSIS
Using Porter s 5 Forces Analysis and SWOT
competitiveness assessment, we select companies that
can weather pricing pressures and margin squeeze.
Candidates are companies that can sustain above-trend
sales growth with protected operating margin
RESTRUCTURING STORY
We practice a close-up monitoring of corporate activities
in order to assess each company s restructuring process
and its shareholder-friendliness. Candidates are
companies that will improve return to investors through
higher return on invested capital
Solution
solution
PRICE RANGE
Base: 472 - 6
Optimistic: 795
Pessimistic: 425
Buy Sectors
Utilities
Industrial
Financials
Consumer NC
MACRO
Combined risk of economic slowdown and
rising pressure on inflation in the 1st quarter
of 2001 in the developed countries
Lackluster domestic demand
Continued pricing pressure
MICRO
Uncertainty for restructuring payoff
Lack of shareholder activism
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE ANALYSIS
Using Porter s 5 Forces Analysis and SWOT
competitiveness assessment, we select companies that
can weather pricing pressures and margin squeeze.
Candidates are companies that can sustain above-trend
sales growth with protected operating margin
RESTRUCTURING STORY
We practice a close-up monitoring of corporate activities
in order to assess each company s restructuring process
and its shareholder-friendliness. Candidates are
companies that will improve return to investors through
higher return on invested capital
Solution
solution
PRICE RANGE
Base: 472 -
Optimistic: 795
Pessimistic: 425
Buy Sectors
Utilities
Industrial
Financials
Consumer NC
These companies will be at forefront of the eventual transi-
tion from "defensive restructuring" to "offensive restructur-
ing". They will continue necessary investments and look for
new growth opportunities and production techniques. They
will lead "new economy" of Korea from 2002 and forward.
Most of companies in Korea face tough envi-
ronment for profit generation and fund raising
until 2nd quarter of 2001. They must depend
on continued investment and/or liquidity
expansion in the world markets.