1. Applying Advanced Spatial Tools for
Landscape Analysis and Climate Change
Adaptation in Asian Highlands:
Yunnan Case
Jianchu Xu
Presented at ICRAF, Nairobi, 5th March, 2012
With Support from
Robert Zomer, Antonio Trabucoo, Huafang Chen, Rong Lang, Haiying Yu,
Wen Sha, Xueqing Yang, Xing Ma, Xuefei Yang
World Agroforestry Centre, East Asia Node
Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies

2. Outline of Presentation
The Region
Global change
Evidence of impacts
Yunnan Case

3. Navigating from Highlands
to Lowlands in Asia

4. malayan Glaciers, the largest outside of polar region

5. Tibetan Plateau

6. Great Rivers of Northwest Yunnan

7. Xishuangbanna, Southern Yunnan

8. Tonle Sap of Cambodia

9. Mekong Delta of Vietnam

11. Global
Importance of
Biodiversity
One of four richest vascular plant regions
The richest Gymnosperms in the world
Two global biodiversity hotspots:
Southwest China, Indo-Burma
Biodiversity Hotspots
SW China
Indo-Burma

12. Geodiversity drives
species diversity
Habitat diversity is
driven by gravity
Small scale differences in
• Temperature
• Water
• Nutrients
• Substrate

13. Indigenous groups along
Mekong Region Transect
Complex social/ethnic
groups with
Diverse landscapes
dynamic
& ecosystems:
livelihoods:
• High Plateau
• Tibetan nomads
• Alpine
• Subtropical • Agro-pastalist
• Tropical
• Upland farmers
• Aquatic/wetland
• Shifting cultivators
• Paddy farmers
• Fishery

14. The Greater Rivers

15. Vertical Linkage in Mountain Ecosystem

16. What does global change
mean for ecosystem?
 Land use/cover change 25~30%
 Climate Change
＋emission
—sequestration
water
temperature
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

17. What are the implications of land
use/cover change to biodiversity and
environmental security?
Science 2009 (324): 1024-1025

21. Temperature Gradient in Himalayans

22. Warming Faster than Global Average in
high altitude
(Adapted from Liu and Chen 2000, and AB Shrestha 1999)

23. Projected precipitation
changes by 2100
At least 10% At least 10%
reduction increase
23/41

24. Haydley Circulation and
Droughts in Southwest China
Hadley
Circulation
Fu et al, 2006, Science;
Seidel, Fu et al, 2008, Nature Geoscience

25. What impact of climate change
on alpine ecosystem?
Delaying phenology in Tibetan Plateau phenology
Clear
Beginning of the delays in
growing season recent
(BGS) in years
meadow and
steppe
vegetation Remotely
sensed (GIMMS
dataset 1982-
2006)
Yu, Luedeling and Xu, 2010. PNAS 107, 22151-22156

26. Habitat loss following climatic change
(doubling of atmospheric CO2 )
26/41

27. Landscape and Livelihood Linkage
Hydrological
Landscape cycle
Cryosphere Slope stability Biosphere
Tourism
Hydropower
Mountain
27/41
Livelihood Safety of people agriculture

28. Conservation Biology 2009，23(3) 520–530.
What are the
Social-Ecological
Cascading Effects
from mountain top
to delta?

29. Yunnan-A Unique Province in China

30. Rich Plant Diversity & Resources

31. Diverse and attractive ethnic culture
About one third or more
of 41 million residents in
Yunnan are ethnic
peoples of 25 minorities

32. Applying the GEnS – Global Stratification
for Assessing Regional Climate Change
Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems
A globally consistent bio-climatic stratification based upon statistical
quantitative approach using spatially distributed climate data (WorldClim)
developed within the framework of the GeoBON (GEOSS Biodiversity
Observation Network) (Metzger et al. 2010)
Allows for comparative analysis across regions and statistically-based
prediction of future change based upon changing climatic conditions

33. GEnS – Bioclimate Map
Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G., Sayre, R., Trabucco, A., Zomer, R. (2012)
A high resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity
research. Global Ecology and Biogeography. In Press.

34. Yunnan Province - Projected Climate Change
Hadley GCM – Scenario A2
Precipitation (mm)
Generally Wetter
Average Annual Precipitation
increases by 9.7 percent from
1137 mm/yr to 1260 mm/yr
Temperature (°C)
Generally Hotter
Average Annual Temperature
increases by 12 percent from
15.5°C to 17.5°C
Aridity Index
( > is more humid)
Non-Uniform Impacts
Changes in growing conditions
are spatially differentiated
across the region

35. Yunnan Province – Environmental Stratification
And Predicted Change

36. Can species run faster enough to cope with
climate change? (e.g.: 500m elevation change)
Chinese flyer man
Kenya Marathon runner

37. Benchmark Site: Xishuangbanna
(Total area: 19,200km2, Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve)

38. Xishuangbanna
Landuse Change 2002 -2010
Expansion of Forest
Expansion of Rubber
Loss of swidden-fallow
succession
Loss of Agricultural Land

39. Xishuangbanna
Landuse Change Dynamics and Tree Cover
Using MODIS VCF For
Regional Validation of
“Global Trees on Farm”
Methodology
Tree Cover Analysis
Consistent with Landuse
Change Analysis
2000-2005

40. Xishuangbanna Prefecture
China’s Biodiversity Treasure
A vast number of plant and animal species. Biodiversity
plays an important role in economy, society, culture,
religion. More than 200 species are in rare, endangered
and near endangered status.
Expansion of rubber production is a major threat, which
increases with climate change. However, conditions in
existing protected areas will change drastically by 2050.

41. Global habitat suitability for rubber
calculated from the 110 records from GBIF
Rubber is already planted in most areas that we identify as suitable
MaxEnt; training AUC=0.99; test AUC 0.97 (+/-0.007
SD)

42. Benchmark Site:
Baoshan
Total area:23,000km2
Gaoligong Mt. National
Nature Reserve

43. Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity &
Ecosystem services: Baoshan Ecological Forest Monitoring
Changing climatic
conditions will impact
existing forests, and
associated biodiversity
Protected areas may no
longer protect intended
habitats
Temperate Forests
and
Higher Altitude
Communities Likely
at Risk
Expansion of
Tropical Forest
Zones

44. Gaoligongshan National Nature Reserve
Baoshan Prefecture
A Biodiversity Hotspot / UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
Approx. 405,500 ha. of highly diverse montane forest
with a extraordinary mix of diverse flora and fauna.
The highest areas have been designated as an strict
conservation, with no visitors allowed. Climatic
conditions in these higher elevation habitats are
drastically altered by 2050.

45. Incorporating adaptation scenarios to predict
spatial species distribution of alpine plants
1. Does alpine plants shift
upward under warming
temperature in SW China?
2. If yes, what is the rate of
range shift to
No adaptation, Local adaptation Adaptation corresponding climate
local extinction by physio- through range
morphological shift change?
change, or even
speciation 3. If not, what are the
adaptation strategies?
Adaptation
scenarios
Focal plants:
Rhododendron
spp.

46. Two ways to design linkages
for climate change
The “old” (2005) New way:
way: linked dynamic corridors for diverse
models land facets
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010
Climate envelope models
Facet: One of the flat
… perform no polished surfaces cut on a
better than chance gemstone
(Beale et al. 2008.
PNAS 104:14908

47. Land facet: a landscape polygon of
relatively uniform topography and soil
Wessels et al. 1999. Biological Conservation

48. Land facets as drivers of biodiversity
Soil type
Insolation
Topographic position
Elevation
Plants &
animals are
(and will be) Climate
a function of:
?
The state-factor model of ecosystems.
Hans Jenny (1941); Amundson & Jenny (1997)

49. These variables define land facets.
Land facets will interact
with future climate to
support new assemblages
of plants and animals.
Distribution of
plants &
animals

50. “Conserve
the arenas of biological
activity rather than the
temporary occupants of
those arenas.”
(Hunter et al. 1988)

51. The approach should
identify a continuous
strand of each land
facet, and a strand with
high diversity of facets.
These will help plants
& animals shift their
ranges as climate
change
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010
Conservation Biology

52. Examples of land facets
• mid-elevation, steep
ridges with rocky soils
• low-elevation, high-
insolation (sunny) flat
areas with thick soils
If good soil maps are
lacking, facets can be
defined solely on
topographic variables.
Conserving the arenas, not the actors: land facets as
biodiversity surrogates in planning for climate change
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology

53. Join All Corridors
Add a riparian corridor if needed
Facet A Corridor
Facet B Corridor
Facet C Corridor
Corridor with
interspersed facets
Many soil maps are
not useful.
If needed, use
presence of water or
riparian plants to map
a “moist soil facet”
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology

54. Advantages of using land facets to define corridors
• Useful where no
vegetation maps
exist.
• No bias to include
“data-rich” areas
in the design.
• Not subject to error
propagation from
linked, highly
uncertain models.
• Not subject to error
compounding from
projecting 50-100
years into the
future. P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology

55. Yunnan Province, China
Annual Net Primary Productivity (NPP)
Annual net primary productivity (NPP)
averaged over a period from 2000 to
2006, based on MOD17 – MODIS Global
Terrestrial Net Primary Production
estimates derived from satellite remote
sensing data at a resolution of 250m2
(Running et al., 2005).
Projected NPP in 2050 is calculated
based on increase (or decrease) of zonal
areas.

56. Results
Can expect significant climatic change
Can expect significant impact on ecosystem and species
/ productivity
Can expect species and ecosystems shift
Hotspots of change/ change-ecotones identified
High risk ecotypes identified
Implications for Environmental Monitoring
Need to consider the impact of climate change on
monitoring and conservation design
Target climate vulnerable ecotypes and species
Landscape approach for climate change adaptation