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1. A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF MULTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION AND
FOOD INSECURITY IN NIGERIA
By
YUSUF, IZANG ELIJAH
Department of History and International Studies,
Faculty of Arts, University of Jos,
P.M.B 2084, Jos, Plateau State-Nigeria.
elijahyusuf29@yahoo.com: elijahyusuf93@gmail.com
Tel: +234-8037310377; +234-7013855866
And
FRANCIS JOHN TENON
Department of History and International Studies,
Faculty of Arts, University of Jos, Nigeria.
P.M.B 2084, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria.
Tel: +234-8023700897: +234-8136333818
francisjohntenon@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
This study examines the disequilibrium between increase in population growth and food
supply in Nigeria, using the Malthusian theory of population as a paradigm. The objective of
this paper is to critically analyse if the “Malthusian Theory of Population” applies to the
Nigeria’s contest or not? In order to answer this question, the paper assessed the factors that
cause increase in population growth in Nigeria and the factors that hinder food production.
The findings of this paper reveal that the Malthusian theory of population addresses the
question of increase in population growth and food insecurity in Nigeria. According to the
findings, Population tend to be increasing in a multi-geometrical progression and food supply
increase in an arithmetical progression, thereby creating an imbalance between population
growth and food supply. The methodology adopted for this paper is basically primary and
secondary, using systematic content analysis of the Malthusian population thesis and the
question of food insecurity. The research concludes by way of providing forward looking
suggestions on how to balance the disequilibrium between population growth and food
supply in Nigeria.
Keywords: Population, Growth, Food Insecurity, Birth, Death.
1

2. INTRODUCTION
The most well-known theory of population is the Malthusian theory of population.
Thomas Robert Malthus wrote his essay on “The Principle of Population” in 1798. Malthus
centred his arguments on the biological fact that every living organism tends to multiply to an
unimaginable extent. Malthus posited that given the centrality of food in human existence and
the necessity of continuous conjugal passion, population growth would inevitably lead to an
imbalance between people and available resources. Malthus observed that population would
tend to increase at a geometric rate (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64,), but food supply would tend to
increase at an arithmetic rate (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12). For 221 years after Malthus published his
first work in 1798, his argument created a lot of debate among scholars.
Those in the developed nations do not consider Malthus theory fit in explaining their
economic, because as their population increase so does food supply. The over produced food
that was beyond their domestic consumption due to the advancement in science and
technology, which revolutionized their agricultural sector. While to those in the
underdeveloped countries, most especially Sub Sahara Africa, where agricultural sector is
facing major setback and population tend to increase in a multi-geometrical progression,
found the theory applicable. The Malthusian theory seems to explain vividly the Nigeria
situation. Example of this was captured in the work of Odusina, Emmanuel Kolawole,
“Implications of a Rapidly Growing Nigerian Population: A Review of Literature”. The
author noted that Nigeria has a growing population and what can also be referred to as
an increasing population. He observed that the 1991 census figure put the growth rate of
Nigeria at 2.82 and the total fertility rate as revealed by Post Enumeration Survey (PES) at
5.89 per cent. The Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), (2003 and 2008) put
the total fertility rate at 5.7 per cent as against that of 1999 NDHS which was 5.2 per cent.
Going by 2006 Nigerian National Population Census figure put, the growth rate at 3.02 per
2

3. cent per annum as against the 1991 growth rate of 2.82. This shows that the population is
capable of doubling itself in less than twenty three years.1
The size and structure of human population in Nigeria have been influenced by a
number of factors including; Birth rate, Death rate, Migration, Lack of Knowledge to Family
Planning, Religious Believes, Moral Decay, Material well-being, Early marriage, Sexual
Gratification, Single Motherhood, Ignorant, Adequate Improvement in Medical Services and
Health Facilities etc. As population increases, so the demand for food, and food production is
expected to increase also, but certain factors hinder or limit the production of food in Nigeria,
which are: Neglect of the agricultural sector by governments and individuals, poor
agricultural programmes and practices, violent conflicts (herders and farmers, banditry, Boko
Haram, communal, religious etc), climate change, the use of traditional simple farm
implements etc. The question posed by Malthus as to whether food production could keep
pace with the demand of a growing population and his answer was, the power of population
is indefinitely greater than the resources on earth to provide the needed subsistence for
mankind.
With the above premise this paper investigates the Malthusian theory of population
and the question of food insecurity in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper is to ascertain
whether the Malthusian theory explains population growth and food insecurity in Nigeria.
DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS/TERMS
It is important to clarifying the concept of ‘Population growth and Food Insecurity’ in
order to understand ing the main thrust of this paper. Population growth and food insecurity
are partners in the same journey, especially in most developing countries. To begin with,
Population Growth: Tracing its etymology to the Latin roots, the Oxford English Dictionary,
1
Odusina, Emmanuel Kolawole, “Implications of a Rapidly Growing Nigerian Population: A Review of
Literature”. uaps2011.princeton.edu/papers/110048 (accessed 20/7/2019), 1.
3

4. defines population as a number of people living in (i.e. population) a particular place at a
particular time.2
In demography, population growth is used informally for the more specific
term population growth rate, and often used to refer specifically to the growth of the human
population. According to Web’s Largest Resource, population growth can be defined as the
increase in the number of individuals in a population. It is also the change in a population
over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in
a population using “per unit time” for measurement.3
Ellen Gee defined population growth
as the change in the size of population, depending on the balance of birth and death, which
are measured both in absolute and relative term.4
In line with Gee, the Macmillian
Encyclopedia.com also defines population growth as change in the size of a population which
can be either positive or negative over time, depending on the balance of births and deaths.5
Food Insecurity: is a situation where food supplies cannot meet up with population growth.
Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), defines food insecurity as a “situation that exists
when people lack secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for natural
growth, development and active and healthy life.6
Fawole, Ibasmis and Ozkan declare that
food insecurity exist when people lack sustainable physical or economic access to enough
safe, nutritious, and socially acceptable food for a healthy and productive life.7
Food
insecurity, as measured in the United States of America, refers to the social and economic
2
Nancy Krieger, “Who and What is a Population”? Historical Debate, Current Controversies, and Implications
for Understanding Population Health and Rectifying Health Inequilities”. The Quarterly, A Multidisplinary
Journal of Population Health and Health Policy. https://wwwncbi.nlm,nih.gov. 5.
3
Web’s Largest Resource for Definition and Translation. Retrieved from
www.definition.net/definition/population+growth
4
Ellen Gee, Population Growth, Retrieved on 19th
January, 2015,, from https://www.deathreference.com/Nu-
population-Growth.html1#b#ixzz2iCoYU8el.
5
Macmillan Encyclopedia.com copy right 2002. The Gale Group Inc.www.encyclopedia.com/social science and
law/anthropology…..
6
Pasquale De Muro and Mattew Mazziotta, “Toward a Food Insecurity Maltidimentional Index (FIMI)
www.nitropdf.com/professional
7
Wasiu Olayinka Fawole, Eda IIbasmis and Burhan Ozkan, “Food Security in Africa in Terms of Causes,
Effects and Solution, A Case of Nigeria”. A Paper Presentation at the 2nd
International Conference on
Sustainable Agriculture and Environment held at the Selcuk University and Dagdas International Agricultural
Researce Institute Campus in the City of Konga, Turke, 30th
September - 3rd
October, 2015, 2.
4

5. problem of lack of food due to resource or other constraints, not voluntary fasting or dieting,
or because of illness, or for other reasons.8
Abdulrahaman, pointed out that, food insecurity
refers to a country’s inability to provide and secure high quantity and quality of food to its
people as a result of high demand, shortages in the supply of agricultural commodities, and
low purchasing power.9
In a nutshell, Food insecurity exists whenever the availability of
nutritionally adequate and acceptable foods is limited or uncertain.
THEORETICAL FRAMWORK
The Malthusians theory of population is used as a paradigm to understand population
increase and food insecurity in Nigeria. The writer who gave classical population theory its
definitive statement was Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834). John Maynard Keynes
called him the “first of the Cambridge economists”, for it was at Cambridge that Malthus
distinguished himself as an undergraduate.10
Malthus first published work was his famous,
“Essay on the Principle of Population”, as it affects the future improvement of the society,
which appeared anonymously in 1798 and was published in five further edition during his
lifetime.11
Malthus’s core argument was that while human population increased exponentially,
food production increased more slowly, in a linear fashion or arithmetic series.12
Malthus
theory is very simple, to use his own words, he argued that;
“by nature human food increase in a slow arithmetical ratio; man himself
increases in a quick geometrical ratio unless want and vice stop him. The
increase in numbers is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence
increase, unless prevented by powerful and obvious checks”.13
8
Concepts and Definition, Food Insecurity, Hunger, Malnutrition and Underdevelopment, Retrieved from,
https://.www.nap.edu>read,Chapter
9
Salmanulfarisi Abdulrahaman, “Expenditure on Agricultural Sector and Food Security in Nigeria”,
International Journal of Social Science Tomorrow, Vol. 2 (1), 2013…2.
10
Robert B. Ekelund, Jr. and Robert F. Le’bert, A History of Economic Theory and Method, (Singapore,
Published by MaGrew-Hill, 1990) 132.
11
Geoffrey M. Hodson, “Malthus, Thomas Rebert (1766-1834)”, in Donald Rutherford (ed), Dictionary of
British Economists, (Briton: Thoemmes Continuum), Retreived from www.geoffrey-hodgson.info>userPDF
(accessed 20/7/2019), 1.
12
Ibid, 2.
5

6. Malthus based his reasoning on the biological fact that every living organism tends to
multiply to an unimaginable extent. To him, there is a natural sex instinct in human beings to
increase at a faster rate.14
As a result, population increases in a geometrical progression and if
unchecked double itself every 25 years. Thus starting from 1, population in successive period
of 25 years will be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 64, 256 (after 200 years). On the other hand, food supply
increases in a slow arithmetical progression due to the operation of the law of diminishing
returns based on the supposition that the supply of land is constant. Food supply in successive
similar periods will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, (after 200 years).15
According to Malthus population would ultimately outstrip food supply. Because as
food supply in a country increases, the people will produce more children and would have
larger families. This would increase the demand for food and food per person will again
diminish. 16
Therefore, the standard of living of the people cannot rise permanently. Since
population increases in geometrical progression and food supply in arithmetical progression,
population tends to outrun food supply. Thus, an imbalance is created which leads to over-
population. This is depicted in the figure below:
FIGURE 1: Malthusian Population Curve
13
Tushar Seth, “Maithusian Theory of Population: Explained with its Criticism”, Rerieved from
www.economicdiscussion.net>mal. (accessed 20/7/2019), 1.
14
H. L. Bhatia, History of Economic Thought, (New Delhi, Vikas Publishing House PVT LTD, 2004), 132
15
S. Divisha “Malthusian Theory of Population” Offline,
www.Sociologydiscussion.com/demography/population
16
Seth, “Maithusian Theory of Population…3
6

7. Source: http://www.com/search?q=malthusian+population+curve+diagram
To bring to knowledge, the understanding of the above figure. Food supply in
arithmetical progression is measured on the horizontal line and the population in a
geometrical progression on the vertical line. The curve line ‘M’ is the Malthusian population
curve which shows the relation between population and increase in food supply. It rises
upward swiftly. In Malthus own words, “it is the constant tendency in all animated life to
increase beyond the nourishment prepared for it”. 17
What this means is that, food supply
increases at a slower rate than population.
Subsequently, Malthus argued that a disequilibrium situation arises when the rise in
population is more than the rate of increase in supply of food production. As a result, many
people will not get even subsistence food. They will die due to lack of the minimum
subsistence food for them. In their struggle, they are subjected to civil war, starvation,
famine, epidemics, floods and other natural calamities etc.18
Malthus called these calamities
as “Positive or Natural Checks”. On the other hand, there is “Preventive or Man-made
Checks”, which are applied by man to control birth rate. They are foresight, late marriage,
17
Eric Roll, A History of Economic Thought, (London-Boston: Faber and Faber Limited Co., 1992), 175
18
Dick Hill, An Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society,
(PPublished by Redwood AnchoBook) https://listentogenius.com>authorp, (accessed 17/7/2019)
7

8. celibacy, moral restraint etc.19
Malthusian diagram is shown below for more clarification.
FIGURE 2: Malthusian theory of Population of Diagram
Source: Malthusian Theory of Population Intelligent Economist,
https:www.intelligenteconomist.com>….
Positive checks exercise their influence on the growth of population by increasing the
death rate. They are applied by nature. The positive checks to population are various and
include every cause, whether arising from vice or misery, which in any degree contributes to
shorten the natural duration of human life.20
The unwholesome occupations, hard labour,
exposure to the seasons, extreme poverty, hunger, starvation, bad nursing of children,
common diseases, war, plagues, famines, all shortens human life and increase the death rate.
Preventive checks exercise their influence on the growth of the population by bringing down
the birth rate. It arises from man’s foresight which enables him to see distant consequences.
He sees the distress which frequently visits those who have large number of children, the
standard of living of the family is bound to be lowered. He may think that if he has to support
a large family, he will have to subject himself to greater hardships and more strenuous labour
19
Debasish, “Malthusian Theory of Population (with diagram), www.economic discussion.net.
20
Seth, “Maithusian Theory of Population…3
8

9. than that in his present state.21
He may not be able to give proper education to his children if
they are more in number. Malthus recommended the use of preventive checks if mankind was
to escape from the impending misery.22
If preventive checks were not effectively used,
positive checks like diseases, wars and famine would come into operation. As a result, the
population would be reduced to the level which can be sustained by the available quantity of
food supply.
As a theory, the population principle tells us that population will increase when the
cumulative effect of the various checks is less than that of procreation, that it will decrease
whenever the cumulative effect of the checks is greater than that of procreation, and that it
will remain unchanged whenever the combined effect of the checks and of procreation are
self-cancelling.
CAUSES OF POPULATION GROWTH IN NIGERIA
The population of Nigeria is increasing rapidly due largely to decreasing mortality
and sustained high fertility. There is a preponderance of young persons in the population.
While a large proportion of the population live in rural communities, moving from rural to
urban areas is increasing at an alarming rate.23
Population growth in Nigeria is normally
influenced by three main factors: Births, Deaths and Migration (BDM). Other factors are;
Lack of Knowledge about Family Planning, Religious Believes, Moral Decay, Material well-
being, Early marriage, Adequate Improvement in Medical Services and Health Facilities,
Single Motherhood, Sexual Gratification, Ignorance etc. The following factors amongst many
are generally considered to be the most important reasons for high population in Nigeria.
21
Ibid
22
Bhatia, History of Economic…132
23
Federal Republic of Nigeria, National Policy on Population for Development, Unity, Progress and Self-
Reliance, (Reproduced by the Borno State Government, 1989), 3.
9

10. Birth or Fertility Rate: Among many other factors causing unprecedented growth of
population in Nigeria is birth rate and this has affected greatly the growth rate of the
population. According to 2006 Population Census, the growth rate was 3.02. This shows that
Nigerian population will double in less than 22 years. There are many factors that have
generated increase in birth rate. One of them is improved medical services and facilities.
Compare to many decades ago, there are better though not adequate medical services and
facilities. Better drugs and immunization services which have reduced greatly infant, child,
maternal and other forms of mortality and consequently high birth rate.24
Thus a large
increase in the size of the population is mostly a function of past and present levels of fertility
and mortality in Nigeria. All available evidence indicates that the level of reproduction has
been persistently high for the last three or four decades and still remains so at present. This
implies a crude birth rate of 45-48 births per 1000 population.25
For instance, Crude Birth
Rate (CBR) was 39.0 and 44.6 in 1990 and 1991 respectively. It was 42.0 in 2003. All these
buttress the fact that there is high CBR in Nigeria.26
Death or Mortality Rate: The trend of events however indicates that the level of
mortality, especially infant mortality, though still high, has been declining over time in
response to improved standard of living and public health. The crude death rate has declined
from about 27 deaths per 1000 persons in sixties to 13-16 deaths per 1000 persons at present.
The infant death rate which is a major component of the overall death rate has declined from
189 to about 90 deaths per 1000 live births during the same period. As a result, the
expectation of life at birth has increase from 37 years in the mid-sixties to about 50 years at
present. The overall mortality rate for children aged one through four years is also still very
high. Approximately 16 out of every 100 children born may die before the age of five.27
The
24
Odusina, Emmanuel Kolawole, Implications of a Rapidly Growing Nigerian Population: A Review Of
Literature Uaps2011.Princeton.Edu/Papers/110048, 5.
25
Federal Republic of Nigeria, National Policy….3
26
Kolawole, Implications of a Rapidly…6
27
Federal Republic of Nigeria, National Policy….4
10

11. biggest population story of the last hundred years has been the conquest of disease. Scientists
have learned a great deal about the ways to prevent and cure many types of disease. Thus,
millions of people who would have died of disease a century ago are more likely to live to old
age. The most effective tools in the conquest of disease have been improved knowledge about
nutrition, vaccinations, better public health practices and the development of new
medicines.28
Other factors affecting death rate include improvement in medicine, dietary
standard, hygiene, increase in the levels of standard of living and literacy etc. They are part of
the reasons for the decline in mortality or death rates of infant, child and adult in Nigeria and
consequently continue to generate rapid increase in population.29
Migration: migration takes two forms, internal and international, until recently
international migration had not been of much significance to the demographic situation of
Nigeria. However, the great influx of aliens to our country since the mid-seventies has
dramatically changed this situation as most of them live in urban areas and exert social and
economic pressures on the nation’s resources. Internal migration takes the form of rural-
urban, usually dominated by young able-bodied school leavers in search of employment and
other opportunities in the cities and also those fleeing the Fulani herdsmen and Boko Haram
onslaught. The resulting extremely rapid growth of the cities has created serious problems of
housing, sanitation, unemployment and crime.30
For example, the 2014 World Urbanisation
Prospects report, predicts that by 2050, most of the population-70 per cent–will be residing in
cities.31
The human nature is set to seek for greener pastures, no matter where the destination
is. People migrate from their home to other places because of high paid jobs and security.
28
Carolyn Kinder, “The Population Explosion: Causes and Consequences”, Saturday Magazine The Guardian
16 June 2018teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1998/7/98.07.02.x.html
https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-growth/, 17.
29
Kolawole, Implications of a Rapidly…6
30
Federal Republic of Nigeria, National Policy….5
31
Samson Ezea “Dissecting causes, consequences of Nigeria’s population growth” Saturday Magazine The
Guardian 16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-growth/
file:///C:/Users/first%20user/Downloads/New%20folder%20(2)/Dissecting%20causes,%20consequences
%20of51_-4_1B4177.png
11

12. Lack of Knowledge about Family Planning and Ignorance: Even at present one
may observe great number of illiterates and those who continue to follow the customs of their
ancestors. They have almost no knowledge about family planning. People get their children
married at the very early age, as a tribute to the traditions. In some areas to have many
children is a part of traditions.32
Illiteracy, traditions, customs, and lack of knowledge about
contraceptives have influenced the population growth of Nigeria. Many people (especially in
the rural areas) are less informed about reproductive health issues and ways of building their
family effectively.33
A laboratory technologist, Reginald Okpala, attributed the rapid
population growth in Nigeria is caused by the rejection of contraceptives for family planning
by many families. He argued that “Majority of Nigeria people most especially in the North
believe that God creates man and woman to marry, increase and multiply. Many see the use
of condom and other family planning methods as taboo; thereby continue to reproduce babies
at will”.34
According to Dr. James Joshua, “many people still believe that engaging in family
planning causes infertility.35
Ignorance also plays a role in population growth. Many families
are ignorant of anything pertaining to contraceptives. They believe in producing children to
inherit and continue with the family lineage. As such, a husband and his wife continue to
produce children, and not controlling the size of their family to between two to three children.
An average man will argue that society will blame him if he has fewer children. This could be
linked to the massive poverty in the country, coupled with hardship and high cost of living.36
Religious Believes and Single Motherhood: What is responsible for rapid
population growth in Nigeria includes religious belief. Interview with Ali Nuhu revealed that,
32
Katrine Nenge, Causes of overpopulation in Nigeria and its consequences Naij.com Legit https://www.legit.ng
› ✔ Ask Legit, 1.
33
Chibuzor Aguwa, “Factors Affecting Population Growth in Nigeria”, Nigerian Fact, February 1, 2019
https://nigerianfact.com/factors-affecting-population-growth-in-nigeria/
34
Uzoma Nzeagwu, Awka. “Many Families Have Refused To Embrace Family Planning”, ” Saturday Magazine
The Guardian, 16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-
growth/
35
Interview with Dr. James Joshau, Doctor, 39 Years, Jos North, Plateau State, 29/05/2019.
36
Ibid.
12

13. “some religions do not restrict birth control through family planning and child-spacing.
Muslims believe that they can marry up to four wives and give birth to the maximum of 14
children per wife”.37
Oramah Ikenna Theodore observed that “Islamic religion in Nigeria
promotes large families with the encouragement of early marriage and polygamous family
system. The Christian religion in turn prohibits the most effective forms of contraception and
most are anti-abortion.38
Kolawole, further revealed that, in Nigeria, religions, superstitions
and customs have encouraged population growth. All these favour large families and
discourage the practice of family planning. Many religions and customs also allow
polygyny. For instance, Islam favours polygyny and allows men to have up to four wives.39
Moral Decay, Sexual Gratification and Early Marriage: Another cause of
population explosion is moral decadence. Young girls of 14, 15 or less are now getting
pregnant. There is also sexual promiscuity on the part of adults, youths and teenagers. Some
youths have thrown caution to the winds. They get involved in sexual activities with reckless
abandon.40
Nowadays, ladies are ready to yield to sex provided the man is willing to pay her
bill, not minding if she is safe or not. This could result in unwanted pregnancy. There is also
the factor of early marriage, where parents give out their daughter(s) between ages 15 and 20
years for marriage to meet up with economic demands. By the age of 30 or 35, some ladies
would have delivered five to six kids.41
Isa Abdulsalami Ahovi noted that, it is believed that
once a girl or boy grows up at a certain age, ranging between 18 and 20 years, they will
marry. Marriage has become fashionable. Marriage has become a system that must be
embedded and incorporate.42
Emmanuel Kolawale observed that early marriage tend to lead
37
Interview with Ali Nuhu, Teacher, 43 Years, Jos North Plateau State, 23/06/2019.
38
Awka. “Many Families Have…2
39
Kolawole, Implications of a Rapidly…7
40
Tina Todo, “It Should Be The Country’s Strength If Properly Managed”, Saturday Magazine The Guardian,
16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-growth/
41
Ibid
42
Isa Abdulsalami Ahovi, “Religious Belief Responsible For Population Growth” Saturday Magazine The
Guardian, 16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-growth/
13

14. to high birth rate because women will have opportunity of having many children due to
long child bearing reproductive years while postponement of marriage because of
educational aspirations will reduce birth rate.43
Adequate Improvement in Medical Services, Health Facilities and Public Health:
The availability of good Medicare and hospital facilities among others has helped to reduce
cases of infant mortality compared to pre-1980. The occurrence of stillbirth has equally
reduced and today children from age zero to five years are given the needed medical attention
such as immunisation against measles, polio, chicken pox, cholera among others. “This has
helped to increase the population. There are also ante and post-natal services for women,
compared to pre-colonial period, when most deaths were linked to witchcraft, superstitions
and others. Life expectancy in Nigeria has equally improved due to improved lifestyle.44
In
the area of public health, people have concerns about surviving daily living, such as meeting
basic needs: food, water, and housing. First, access to safe drinking water was related to the
incidence of epidemic diseases such as cholera and child survival. Less than 50% of the
population had access to safe drinking water before 1990. By 1990, access to safe drinking
water had increased by 75 per cent. But between 1990 and 2000 the numbers of people
without access to safe water are projected to increase.45
Single Motherhood: There are women who set out to have a baby with the intention
of raising such baby alone. Others are having babies with the hope that the men who are
responsible would agree to marriage them.46
Recent investigations reveal that an increasing
number of women are drawn into single parenthood, as men tend to abandon their traditional
role as providers for their children. An array of factors, including irresponsible fathers, peer
pressure and struggle to cope with modernisation, are blamed for the trend in which young
43
Kolawole, Implications of a Rapidly…7
44
Todo, “It Should Be The Country’s
45
Kinder, The Population Explosion:…15
46
Henry Ekemezie, “Early Marriage, Promiscuity among Youths Responsible for Population Explosion”
14

15. Nigerian girls become pregnant as soon as they reach puberty. It was later discovered that this
trend could have a deep impact on society because a significant number of children brought
up in single parent families have lower life prospects than their peers brought up in two-
parent families.47
FACTORS HINDERING FOOD PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA
According to observers, the gospel of economic salvation cannot be preached without
reference to agricultural development. Agriculture remains the major and most crucial path to
financial progress and prosperity because it is the mainstay of mankind. Thus, wise countries
all over the world make it a priority by developing and exploiting this sector for the
maintenance of their abundant populations through the earning of revenue for development
purposes.48
Ordinarily, the rapid growth of Nigeria population should be a plus to the country,
but it seems not due to several factors such as: Neglect of the agricultural sector, poor
agricultural programmes, violent conflicts (herders and farmers, banditry, Boko Haram,
communal, religious etc), climate change and others. These factors have become a source of
worry to many Nigerians; especially for the fact the development has not discouraged
reproduction among Nigerians.49
The problem of population is not a problem of
numbers but that of human welfare and food security. Amongst the factors that hinder the
production of food in Nigeria are:
Neglect of the agricultural sector is a huge undesirable phenomenon afflicting food
production in Nigeria. Agriculture is the main stay of the Nigerian economy; and it is the
main source of food for most of the population, providing means of livelihood for over 70%
47
Saturday Magazine The Guardian, 16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-
nigerias-population-growth/
48
Joseph A. Adudu, “Fadama III: Changing the Story of Farmers in Plateau“, African Drum. The Voice of Africa
Magazine, Vol. 5 No. 42, April 2018. 7.
49
Samson Ezea “Dissecting causes, consequences of Nigeria’s population growth” Saturday Magazine The
Guardian, 16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-growth/
file:///C:/Users/first%20user/Downloads/New%20folder%20(2)/Dissecting%20causes,%20consequences%20of
15

16. of the population and a major source of raw materials for the agro-allied industries.
Approximately 70% of the total population engage in agricultural production, and about 80%
of the rural population is involved in the sector.50
The neglect of the Nigeria government
toward the agricultural sector and the dependence of Nigeria on crude oil have devastation
effect on food production. Agricultural production in Nigeria is mainly characterized by
multitude of small scale farmers scattered over wide expanse of land area, with small
holdings ranging from 0.05-3.0 hectares, poor access to modern input and credit, poor
infrastructure, land and environmental degradation, inadequate research and extension service
and poor response to technology adoption strategies with poor return on investment.51
These
and other factors are affecting food production in Nigeria.
Poor agricultural programmes: Agricultural programmes are programmes that have
well defined aim and objectives to improve food security through the provision of subsidies
to farmer in the form of fertilizer, tractors, insecticide, seedling, farming equipment, loan
through agricultural bank, World Bank, foreign organization and international donor
agencies.52
The programmes are meant to tackle the problem of food insecurity, but this is not
the case in Nigeria. Agricultural programmes in Nigeria have not fully actualized its full
potential of making Nigeria a food secured nation. Agricultural programmes have not helped
in providing adequate food to all Nigerians due to lack of planning, evaluation, monitoring
and continuity. Other factors are lack of ability and will-power from the managerial staffs
which often gives room for favouritism, cronyism and nepotism. Corruption has further
compounded the level of food insecurity. Nigerian leaders and those saddled with the task at
various levels of federal, state and local government always see this as the golden
50
O. E Ayinde, “Effect of Agricultural Growth on Unemployment and Poverty in Nigeria (1980 -2011)”.
Retrieved from,https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name...paper. (accessed
23/7/2019), 5.
51
Ayinde, “Effect of Agricultural Growth…6
52
T. Agber, P.I Iortima, And E.N Imbur, ‘Lessons from Implementation of Nigeria’s Past National Agricultural
Programs for the Transformation Agenda’ in American Journal Of Research Communication. www.usa-
journals.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Agber1_Vol110.pdf. 3/23/2017, (accessed 23 March, 2017), 240.
16

17. opportunities to amass wealth and enriched themselves.53
This has trickled down to affect
most of the agricultural programmes, because funds meant for the transformation of the
agricultural sector are siphoned to personal or private pockets.
Violent Conflicts and Civil Unrest: Nigeria has now become a home of bloodbath.
Conflicts of different types, such as the herders/farmers conflicts, ethno-religious crisis and
communal conflicts, these are mostly in the Middle Belt. Moreover there is the Boko Haram
(BH) insurgency in the northeast, and banditry in the northwest. Most of these conflicts are
localized, mostly in the rural farming communities. These conflicts interrupt the production
of food and displaced farmers leaving fertile land uncultivated. This has devastating
implication on food production. Other conflicts may take the form of cultism, kidnapping,
rioting, rituals, physical fighting, structural violence without declaring war also result in
negative impact. Matemilola and Elegbede noted that, “Civil insecurity born out of the Boko
Haram conflict has persisted in the extreme northeast, particularly in Borno, Yobe and Kano
states”.54
While pastoralists invasion persist in the middle belt, particularly in Benue, Plateau,
Taraba, Southern Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Kogi states; causing serious population
displacement, limiting crop production below average, restricting market and trade activities
and causing higher food prices compared to other areas of the country.
Climate Change: Aside from conflict, climate change is a serious factor affecting the
production of food in Nigeria, most especially the northernmost part of Nigeria. Amongst
other impacts, climate change is responsible for biodiversity loss in the ecosystem as well as
other physical access. Climate change has become one of the key divisors that is redefining
the global food equation and thus having so much impact on the food security of Nigeria.55
In
53
Yusuf, Izang Elijah “An Assessment of Agricultural Programmes and Food Insecurity In Nigeria From 1960
To 2016”. www.academia.edu>an-as (accessed 23/5/2019)
54
Saheed Matemilola and Isa Olalekan Elegbede, “The Challenges of Food Security in Nigeria”, Article (PDF
Available) in Open Access Library Journal, 04(12):1-22 · January 2017 with 7,185 Reads DOI:
10.4236/oalib.1104185
55
Ibid
17

18. Nigeria for example, the Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN), observed that
over a third of land that was cultivable 50 years earlier is now desert across 11 of Nigeria’s
northernmost states: Borno, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Yobe,
Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi.56
Again, according to Gombe State Emergency Management
Agency (GSEMA) statistics, revealed that, almost 1000 farms within Gombe were destroyed
by flood in 2007 alone resulting in loss of tones of important local food crops as cassava,
yams, maize, sugarcane and vegetable.57
Change in Nigeria’s climatic conditions with regards
to the distribution of rainfall pattern is a major catalyst for the attainment of food production
in Nigeria.
ANALYSIS OF MULTHUSIAN THEORY AND FOOD INSECURITY IN NIGERIA
Malthus proposition is relevant to Nigerian situation. Rapid increase in population
growth is catastrophic to food security. Population increase will continue to eat up any gain in
the agricultural sector and these may lead to severe food shortage. The population of Nigeria
is growing at a rate of 2.9 per cent per year with a doubling of the population every 24 years.
Nigeria adds about 3.5 million people to its population annually and has one of the fastest
growing populations in the world. It is now recognized that the population of Nigeria is very large,
young and increasing very rapidly. In 1953 the population of Nigeria was estimated at 30.4 million
and in 1963, it increased to 55.7 million. In 1991and 2006, it increased to 88.5 million and 140
million respectively. The trend is still moving upwards and as at 2015, the population of Nigeria stood
56
Integrated Regional Information Network “Nigeria: Curbing farmer-nomad clashes and protecting livestock
routes”, A publication of the Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) United Nationals, (2009):
available at http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/news/v.phd. (accessed 12/5/2019).
57
Ojo, E.O. and Adebayo, P.F. “Food Security in Nigeria: An Overview”, European Journal of Sustainable
Development, 1, 199-222
18

19. at 181.6 million.58
The current population of Nigeria is 201.2 million as of Tuesday, July 30, 2019,
based on the latest United Nations estimates.59
The historical table of Nigeria’s Population is shown
below.
Table 1: Population of Nigeria (2019 and historical)
Year Population
Yearly %
Change
Yearly
Change
Urban
Pop % Urban Population World Population
Nigeria
Global Rank
2019 200,962,417 2.60 % 5,087,180 51.9 % 104,282,822 7,714,576,923 7
2018 195,875,237 2.61 % 4,988,926 51.0 % 99,967,871 7,632,819,325 7
2017 190,886,311 2.63 % 4,896,671 50.2 % 95,764,092 7,550,262,101 7
2016 185,989,640 2.65 % 4,807,896 49.3 % 91,668,667 7,466,964,280 7
2015 181,181,744 2.70 % 4,520,697 48.4 % 87,680,500 7,383,008,820 7
2010 158,578,261 2.68 % 3,927,757 43.8 % 69,440,943 6,958,169,159 7
2005 138,939,478 2.58 % 3,317,494 39.3 % 54,541,496 6,542,159,383 9
2000 122,352,009 2.52 % 2,868,109 35.0 % 42,810,252 6,145,006,989 10
1995 108,011,465 2.54 % 2,548,295 32.3 % 34,918,670 5,751,474,416 10
1990 95,269,988 2.64 % 2,331,338 29.8 % 28,379,229 5,330,943,460 10
1985 83,613,300 2.62 % 2,030,515 25.7 % 21,508,164 4,873,781,796 10
1980 73,460,724 3.00 % 2,017,430 22.0 % 16,191,472 4,458,411,534 11
1975 63,373,572 2.51 % 1,478,434 19.8 % 12,573,568 4,079,087,198 11
1970 55,981,400 2.23 % 1,170,837 17.8 % 9,969,016 3,700,577,650 11
1965 50,127,214 2.12 % 997,880 16.6 % 8,315,202 3,339,592,688 13
1960 45,137,812 1.90 % 810,450 15.4 % 6,967,110 3,033,212,527 13
1955 41,085,563 1.65 % 645,164 11.1 % 4,541,081 2,772,242,535 13
SOURCE: Worldometers (www.worldometers.info//) Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. (Medium-fertility variant).
Looking at the above table of the population size indicate that Nigeria is currently the
7th
most populous country in the world with a population of 201,296,696 in 2019, putting
Nigeria among the league of fast growing population in the world on one hand and
on the other hand leaving the nation without commensuration increase in food
58
Azuh Dominic, Matthew A. Oluwatoyin, and Fasina F. Fagbeminiyi The Determinants of Population Growth
in Nigeria: A Co-Integration Approach The International Journal Of Humanities & Social Studies (ISSN 2321 -
9203) www.theijhss.com, 40.
59
Worldometers, “Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population
Prospects: The 2017 Revision”. (Medium-fertility variant). www.worldometers.info//
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/ (accessed 30/7/2019)
19

20. production as Nigeria spent several billion on the importation of rice and developmental
trail. Nigeria is sitting on a time bomb that is about to explored if measures are not taken to
salvage this situation. The Worldometer, projected Nigeria to 3rd
position in 2050 with a
population of 410,637,868 397. Table is shown below.
Table 2: Nigeria Population Forecast
Year Population
Yearly %
Change
Yearly
Change
Urban
Pop % Urban Population World Population
Nigeria
Global Rank
2020 206,152,701 2.62 % 4,994,191 52.7 % 108,711,170 7,795,482,309 7
2025 233,691,888 2.54 % 5,507,837 56.7 % 132,547,150 8,185,613,757 5
2030 264,067,527 2.47 % 6,075,128 60.3 % 159,240,806 8,551,198,644 5
2035 297,323,173 2.40 % 6,651,129 63.4 % 188,612,714 8,892,701,940 5
2040 333,172,092 2.30 % 7,169,784 66.3 % 220,824,256 9,210,337,004 4
2045 371,119,359 2.18 % 7,589,453 69.1 % 256,584,400 9,504,209,572 4
2050 410,637,868 2.04 % 7,903,702 72.0 % 295,479,827 9,771,822,753 3
SOURCE: Worldometers (www.worldometers.info//) Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. (Medium-fertility variant).
The Nigeria Population Forecast clearly shows that the fertility rates in Nigeria are on
the increase, which could have a negative impact on the country’s food supply in the future. It
is on the above backdrop that Ewugi and Yakubu examined the Malthusian Population theory
and the Nigerian Economy; their findings show that the theory’s predictions in some ways
apply to Nigeria. Nigeria is currently experiencing rapid population growth, and its people
are yet to adopt modern and advanced technology in the area of agriculture. There is poverty,
malnutrition and food crises, Nigeria is a home to a variety of social ills, the likes of ethnic
and religious crises, unwanted babies experiences, herders and farmers conflicts, banditry,
Boko Haram insurgency etc. All these can be summed up as the characteristics that Malthus
referred to as “misery” or “vice” that would claim the lives of many. These “miseries” and
“vices” are actually claiming lives directly and indirectly in Nigeria.60
60
Olusogo Olamide Ogunleye, Oluwarotimi Ayokunnu Owolabi,and Muazu Mubarak “Population Growth and
Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Appraisal” International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics,
20

21. According to Malthus, the positive check shortens human life and increase the death
rate which in turn balances population growth and food supply. Reverse is the case for
Nigeria. Positive checks (violent conflicts) further compound to the problem of food
insecurity because most of the deaths resulting from conflicts emanate from the rural farming
communities, where food crops are produced. Conflicts in rural farming communities have
led to the death of more than 5000 farmer according to Alloy S. Ihuah,61
and the displacement
of thousands to urban centres, according to Global Human Right Watchdog Report.62
The
Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) Eze Duruiheoma, disclosed that
urban population within the country has been growing at an average yearly rate of about 6.5
per cent.63
The Displacement Tracking Matrix round XXI of January 2018 identified
estimated 1.7 million IDPs in over 321,580 households across six states of North-East
Nigeria with 40 per cent residing in camp-like settings in urban areas plus 1.4 million
returnees. The number of IDPs represented 4.5 per cent increase compared to the 1,702,680
identified in Round XXI.64
In addition to that, the 2014 World Urbanisation Prospects report,
predicts that by 2050, most of the population-70 per cent–will be residing in cities.65
Positive
checks add to food insecurity because food producing communities are either killed or
displaced to urban centres.
In respect to population growth and food security in Nigeria, Abdulrahaman posited
that Nigeria is witnessing population explosion, where population moves substantially. Some
of the factors identified includes; early marriage, poverty and illiteracy, religious beliefs,
Vol. 5, No. 5, May, 2018 ISSN 2383-2126 (Online www.ijmae.com), 286.
61
Alloy S. Ihuah (ed), Pastoralists and Farmers Conflicts in Central Nigeria, Learning from the Past, (Makurdi,
Centre for Research Management, Benue State University, 2017), iii.
62
Ankeli Emmanuel, “Arrest, Prosecute Killer Pastoralists, Sponsors Sultan Tell F.G”, The Leadership
Newspaper, Monday, May 28, 2018, 1
63
Samson Ezea “Dissecting causes, consequences of Nigeria’s population growth” Saturday Magazine The
Guardian 16 June 2018 https://guardian.ng/.../dissecting-causes-consequences-of-nigerias-population-growth/
file:///C:/Users/first%20user/Downloads/New%20folder%20(2)/Dissecting%20causes,%20consequences%20of
%20Nigeria%E2%80%99s%20population%20growth%20_%20The%20Guardian%20Nigeria%20News%20%
64
Ibid
65
Ibid
21

22. improved sanitary condition, availability of medical facilities and low mortality rate. The
study also revealed that food production increased at marginal level, this is why people are
vulnerable to hunger as well as hunger related diseases. 66
And over the last 50 years,
Nigeria’s urban population has grown at an average annual growth rate of more than 6.5 per
cent without a commensurate increase in social amenities and infrastructure.
PANECEA OF BALANCE
National Population Commission (NPC) should be properly funded so that it could
keep accurate data and conduct census to help government to plan as well as to keep proper
record of death and birth control. There should be massive enlightenment and sensitisation by
the government agencies such as National Orientation Agency (NOA), Community-Based
Organisation (CBO) and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) to stress the need for
birth control; so that people do not give birth to children they cannot cater for.
Nigerians need to go back to land to strengthen the agricultural sector and make it
what it used to be before the oil boom. Nigerians need to learn from the developed nations
like China the secret of industrial and mechanized farming and also the method of improved
seedlings.
The Nigeria Immigration Service should carry out its constitutional responsibility of
checking illegal immigrants into the country. Many of the people we see in Nigeria are from
Chad, Niger, Benin Republic and Cameroun. Public education is what is lacking. The
government, religious leaders, traditional leaders, NGOs, Health sector etc, should imbibe the
culture of educating the general public on the danger of early marriage, unprotected sex, and
the need for family planning.
66
Abdulrahaman, “Expenditure on Agricultural
22

23. Conflicts in Nigeria are mostly localized, with devastating effect on the farming
communities. Lands are left uncultivated due to Boko Haram insurgency, pastoralists’
onslaught, communal conflicts, kidnapping and ritualism etc. The government, security
agents and the individuals must be proactive in dealing with the increasing social unrests in
order to encourage large scale agricultural production.
CONCLUSION
The study had examined the Malthusian theory of population and food insecurity in
Nigeria. It scrutinized carefully those factors that encourage population growth in Nigeria and
also the factors that hinder the production of food for sustainable development. Findings of
this paper revealed that the Malthusian population thesis has a place in Nigeria. Because
Nigerian population has gathered momentum and it will continue to increase for some time
even if there are changes towards family planning and birth control. On this note there is no
doubt that the problem of population is not the problem of number but the problem of
welfare. If the population of Nigerians can be gainfully employed in the agro-sector, then
Nigerians can produce food beyond her consumption like most advance countries.
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