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Looking Through the Crystal Ball
Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of
              the World

                  12th May 2011

                  Courtesy of :

                Money Talks Forum




                                            1
Definition of a Mega Trend

                                       Impact of Mega Trends on Key
    What is a Mega Trend?
                                          Organisational Functions




 Mega Trends are global, sustained
   and macro economic forces of
 development that impact business,
   economy, society, cultures and
 personal lives thereby defining our
future world and its increasing pace
              of change




                                                                      2
Overview of Top Mega Trends
URBANIZATIO




                 Mega City                                              Future of Global Power Generation




                                                       ENERG
                 Mega City                                              Future of Global Power Generation
                 Mega Regions                                           Innovating to Zero !: Zero Emission




                                                         Y
                 Mega Regions                                           Innovating to Zero !: Zero Emission
     N




                 Mega Corridors
                 Mega Corridors                                         Technologies
                                                                        Technologies
                 SMART Cities and SMART
                 SMART Cities and SMART
                     Infrastructure
                     Infrastructure




                                                       MOBILITY
                 Generation Y                                           Electric
                                                                        Electric   Vehicles
                                                                                   Vehicles
                 Generation Y




                                                          E-
                 Women Empowerment and Women CE                         Electric
                                                                        Electric   Aircrafts
                                                                                   Aircrafts
                 Women Empowerment and Women CE
  SOCIAL




                 Power to the Middle Class
                 Power to the Middle Class
                 Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in
                 Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in
                 Developing Economies
                 Developing Economies




                                                         INFRASTRUCTU
                 Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization
                 Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization                   Future Investment in
                                                                        Future Investment in
                                                                            Infrastructure:
                                                                            Infrastructure:




                                                              RE
                                                                        Power, Water and Transport
                                                                        Power, Water and Transport
                 Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Change
                 Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Change
  ECONOMY




                 New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing
                 New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing                       Emerging Transportation Corridors
                                                                        Emerging Transportation Corridors
                 Hotspots
                 Hotspots
                 Future Global 500 Companies by Region
                 Future Global 500 Companies by Region
                 New Trade Zones
                 New Trade Zones




                                                       BUSINES
                                                                        New Business Models
                                                                        New Business Models




                                                          S
                 SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud
                 SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud
                 Computing
                 Computing
                 SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite
  TECHNOLOGY




                 SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite


                                                            WELLNESS
                                                            HEALTH &
                      Orbits
                      Orbits                                            From Fat to Fit: Health,
                                                                        From Fat to Fit: Health,
                 Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and
                 Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and                    Wellness and Well Being
                                                                        Wellness and Well Being
                 Haptic Technology
                 Haptic Technology
                 RoboSlaves
                 RoboSlaves
                 Future of Consumer Electronics
                 Future of Consumer Electronics
                 Wireless Intelligence
                                                       FACTOR




                 Wireless Intelligence                                  Factory of the Future: SMART and
                                                       SMART




                                                                        Factory of the Future: SMART and
                 Future Broadband Applications
                 Future Broadband Applications                          GREEN
                                                          Y




                                                                        GREEN
                 World War 3: Cyber Warfare
                 World War 3: Cyber Warfare



                                                                                                           3
What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000?




           •   China as an emerging Super power

           •                       E-
               Internet Retail and E-Commerce

           •   From Industrial to Information Society

           •   Outsourcing as a business model

           •   .......



                                                        4
Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development
of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors




    MEGA CITY             MEGA REGIONS                  MEGA CORRIDORS
   City With A Minimum     Cities Combining With        The Corridors Connecting
     Population Of 10    Suburbs To Form Regions.       Two Major Cities or Mega
          Million        (Population over 15 Million)           Regions

    EXAMPLE: Greater     EXAMPLE: Johannesburg          EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-
        London             and Pretoria (forming        Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
                                “Jo-Toria”)              China (Population 120
                                                                Million)




                                                                                   5
Top 20 Megacities – Ranking
50% Of The Top 20 Megacities In 2025 Will Be From The
Developing Countries
                                                                     Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities - Ranking (Global), 2009-2025
                                                                                                                                    2009-

                                            45                                          Top 20 Megacities in 2025
                                                                                        Top 20 Megacities in 2025
                                            40
                                                   1.
       Population (million)



                                                                                                                                                                     10 Cities from the
                                            35   Tokyo                                                                                                               developing economies.
                                                                                 6.                   9.          11.Mumbai
                                            30            2.                   Mexico                São
                                                                                City       8.       Paulo                                  16. Delhi
                                            25           New                            Shanghai                       12. Osaka-
                                                         York                                                            Kobe                                  New definition of Megacity ‘25
                                            20
                                            15      3. Los                                                                                                   18. Guangzhou
                                                                                                                          14. Beijing      17. Moscow
                                                   Angeles                                                 10.                                                                 U.N. definition
                                            10                                                           Buenos                                                               of Megacity ‘09
                                                                                                          Aires
                                             5                           5. Chicago     7.Paris                                         15.Hong Kong         19.Seoul
                                                            4. London                                                                                                        20. Miami
                                                                                                                13.Philadelphia
                                             0
 (3)                             (1)               1             3         5              7         9         11         13       15                   17         19           21          23
                                                                                              Ranking based on population and GDP                                  * Size of the bubble – GDP 2025

                                            45
                                                                                        Top 20 Megacities in 2009
                                                                                        Top 20 Megacities in 2009
                                            40                                                                                                                  8 Cities from the developing
                     Population (million)




                                            35     1.                                                                                                           economies.
                                                 Tokyo
                                            30
                                            25                                   8. Mexico City                                                                    19.Mumbai
                                                         2.                                             9. São Paulo                            17. Shanghai
                                                                                                                            13.
                                            20        New York               7. Osaka-                                    Moscow
                                                                                 Kobe
                                            15                                                                                                                 20. Rio de Janeiro
                                                           3. Los       5. Paris                        11. Buenos                  14. Seoul
                                                          Angeles                                          Aires                                                               U.N. definition
                                            10
                                                                                                                                               16. Toronto                     of Megacity ‘09
                                             5             4. London
                                                                              6.Chicago                           12.Hong Kong                                  18. Madrid
                                                                                              10.Philadelphia                       15. Miami
                                             0
(3)                (1)                            1             3         5             7           9           11           13           15           17          19          21            23
                   * Size of the bubble – GDP 2009
                                                                                          Ranking based on population and GDP
                    * Cities from emerging economies                                                              Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan


M65B-18                                                                                                                                                                                           6
Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts

                     Smart Diamond to define Smart City
                                   ‘S”
                                Governance

               ‘S’ Citizen                      ‘S’ Business




                                                                         Source: Frost & Sullivan
          ‘S’ City                                       ‘S’ Buildings
         Planning


                                      ‘S’ ICT


            ‘S’ Mobility                        ‘S’
                                                Energy
                                      ‘S’
                                 Information
                                 Technology

                                                                                                    7
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of
 Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
 China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities



                                                                                        Amsterdam
                                                                 London
                                   Boulder
                                                                                                                                   Tianjin
                                                                                                                    GIFT
              San Francisco                                                  Göteborg
                                                                                          Stockholm
                                                                 Reykjavik    Oslo         Hammarby Sjöstad                                         Songdo
                                                Montreal           Clonburris           Copenhagen
                                Vancouver
                                                                     St Davids
                                Seattle          Toronto                              Freiburg
                                     Portland
                                                                                     Paris                       Dongtan
              Treasure Island                                              Barcelona                           Changsha
                                                Destiny
                     Coyote Springs                                                                                           Meixi Lake
                                           Babcock Ranch                                                       Khajuraho
                              Arcosanti
                                                                                                         Pune                             Singapore City
                                                  Bogota                                                    Kochi




Legend                                                                                                                                     Waitakere, N.Z.

   Cities built from scratch                          Curitiba
                                                                               Cape Town              Masdar
                                                                                                                    Moreland, Australia
   Existing eco cities

   Existing eco megacities




                                                                                                                                               Source: Frost & Sullivan



                                                                                                                                                                     8
“Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to
  Convergence of Competition
                                         Energy/Infrastructure
                                               Players
                                           • T&D Technology
                                           • Power Electronics
                                           • Renewable Energy
                                           • Integrated Distribution Management
                                           • Substation Automation
                                           • AMI-Enabled Metering
                                           • Etc.




• IP Networks                                                      • Building Automation
• Digital Technology                                               • Demand-Side Management
• Analysis Software                                                • Connectivity of devices
• Wireless Communication                                           • Monitoring and Sensing
• Technology Integration                                           • Smart Grid Integration
• Network Security                                                 • Etc.
• Etc.
                                                                      Automation/Building
 IT Players                                                             Control Players


                                                                             Source: Frost & Sullivan.


                                                                                                 9
“Smart” is the New Green

   Smart Cities       Smart          Smart          Smart
                    Technology   Infrastructure     Energy




      Smart           Smart
                                 Smart Grids      Smart Clouds
      Mobility       Buildings




      Smart          Smart          Smart
                                                  Smart Meters
     Materials      Bandages        Phones




                                                                 10
Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020

                      Used For:                  Used For:
                      Meet Ups, Restaurant and   Digital Marketing:
                      Nightclub Reviews,         Receiving Updates on
                      Concert Events             Promotion and Offers




Used For:                                                               Used For:
Networking in Business                                                  Local Real Estate News,
Conferences: Updates on                                                 Geo Socialising with
Potential Contacts                                                      Friends




                                                                                                  11
Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest
and Lifestyle

      Personalization         Techno Savvy                 Civic and               Demanding and
            and               and Connected             Environmentally           Impatient – “Fast
     Individualization            24 X 7                   Friendly               and the Furious”

                               Gaming Gizmos
  Personalized Search and                                                       Instant Text Messaging
                                                         Eco- Transport
           News




                                 Smart Phones
 Social Networking Profiles
                                                     Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags
                                                        Instead of Plastic)          Instant Chat



                              Facebook-on-the Move



  Personalized Products
                                                         Paperless Banking        Speed Oriented
                                                                                Gaming (Car Racing)
                                Microblogs




                                                                                                      12
Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will
 “Act as a Butler” in Everyday Life

                Robots as Pets                       Robots for
                                                     Household
                                                      Chores




                                                                    Robots to Wait
                                                                     on Hand and
  Robots for
                                                                         Foot
Companionship




                                                                  Robots as
     Robots To Help
     With Strategic                                                Waiters
      Planning and
        Business
                                         Robots as
                                          Nannies



                                                                                     13
Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With
Multiple Applications

     Welding           Drilling                                 Medical Robots Performing
                                         Robots in Space
                                                                  Low Invasive Surgery




                 Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020



    Material          Packaging         Transportation Robots       Military Robots
    Handling




                                                                                      14
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and
 Experience Impacting Personal Mobility

Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try     Virtual Surgeries
                                             and Medical Training   Virtual Business Conferences
    Products without leaving their homes




  Virtual Classes and Laboratories                                  Social Networking: 3D Avatars
       and Daily 3D Field Trips                                       Enabling People to Lead
 to Different Countries and Planets                                         Multiple Lives




                                                                                               15
Fluid Interfaces: Haptic Technology Enabling Seamless, Gestural,
Intuitive and Ambient Interaction Between Physical and Virtual Realms

“Holodecks”: F-16           Haptic Entertainment
 Flight Simulator               Experiences          Wearable Computing:
                                                     Gestural Interfaces Are
                                                     Being Developed that
                                                     Allows Humans to
                                                     Interact and Augment
                                                     Physical World with
                                                     Digital Data




                                                     Applications of Wearable
                                                     Computing: Using Hand as
                                                     a Keypad or Dial Pad

      Intuitive Haptic Gaming Experiences




                                                     Surface Computers:
                                                     Browsing of Internet
                                                     on Any Surface
                                                     Through Gestures

                                                        Source: MIT Media Group, 2010


                                                                                16
New Consumer Electronics In 2020: Faster, Smaller, Cheaper and
Innovative & Customized with Even Shorter Development Life-Cycles

  From Laptops To Tabletops
  From Laptops To Tabletops                                                    Mobile Phones: Projection,
                                                                                Mobile Phones: Projection,
                                             From 2D to 3D HDTV
                                             From 2D to 3D HDTV
                                                                               Visual Search and Morphing
                                                                               Visual Search and Morphing
  Holographic “Projection Keyboard”
                                                                              Mobile Projection Technology
        Technologies in 2020




                                            3D HDTV– use of auto
                                      stereoscopic displays with micro        Touchscreen Window With Built-in
                                          lenses) to transmit images           Camera, Scanner, Wi-fi, Google
                                                                                Maps Intuitive Search Tools.
                                       differently to right and left eyes

  Laptops with integrated monitor
          and keyboard.                           E-Media
                                                  E-Media

                                       E-Book            E-Newspaper
                                       Reader

                                                                            Morphing– Allowing Users to Transform
                                                                                Mobiles Into Different Shapes




M65B-18                                                                                                      17
Real-Time Wireless Intelligence in 2020: IT Infrastructure To Be
    Around 80% Wireless on a Single Integrated Platform

UTILITIES: Smart Meters, Wireless
                                                                                                                                          GPS: Atleast 75% of automobiles
Technology and Sensors enabling
                                                                                                                                             installed with GPS equipment
Machine to Machine (M2M)
                                                                                                                                                  enabling intelligent traffic
communication and monitoring of
                                                                                                                                                      management system.
energy use
                                                                                            4G Mobile technology
                                                                                            (LTE, WiMAX)
                                                                                            enabling integration
                                                                                            into any wireless                                        BUILDINGS: Wireless
AIRPORTS: Free Wi-Fi                                                                        platform                                                   Building Automation
Access and Real – Time              CCTV surveillance with built-in                                                                                 Systems at Homes and
Virtual Monitoring with             Network Card, DVR and LCD                                                                                         Offices Connected to
secure, high-speed, wireless        Monitor integrated into the                                                                                        iPhone, Laptop, Car
data networking                     wireless platform                                                                                                     Systems for Easy
                                                                                                                                                                Control and
                                                                                  NETWORK                                                                   Communication
                                                                                INTELLIGENCE
                                                                                 Managed by A
                                                                                 Central Server                    SATELLITE
                                                                                                                   TECHNOLOGY (such
                                                                                                                   as GALILEO) to provide
                                                                                                                   navigation for aviation,
                                                                                                                   ground and maritime
                                                                  HOTSPOTS: City-wide Wi-Fi                        operations
                                                                  Network (Eg. Sunnyvale,
                                                                  California) with Hotspots in
                                                                  Cafes, Hotels and other
RAILWAYS: Real-Time                                               important locations
                                                                                                                                                EMERGENCY SERVICES:
Wireless Video Surveillance in                                                                                                        Wireless surveillance connecting fire
railways stations for event                                                                                                             and police forces to Central Server
detection, preparedness,                                                                                                              for monitoring, control and command
prevention, protection, response                                                                                                                           communications
and recovery




  M65B-18                                                                                                                                                                 18
Innovative Technologies of the Future

                                  Advanced Batteries and Storage


                      Flexible                                     SMART Materials
                    Electronics




                                                                                Green IT
   Nanomaterials

                                   Top 10 Technologies of the
                                            Future

                                                                                  Lasers
     Solar PV




                                                                      White Biotech
                3D Integration



                                      Autonomous Systems

                                                                                           19
Global Power Generation in 2020: Shifting Regional and Fuel Balance
– Power Generation from Renewables and Nuclear Energy to Increase to 36% in 2020 (from 32% in 2007)
By 2020, nearly half of world electricity to be produced in emerging regions


    2007                                 Energy Market: Global Power Generation (TWh) by Region (World), 2020                           2020

                                                                                                                                     26,620 TWh

  19,756 TWh
               Power Generation in TWh




                                                                                                    Source: Frost & Sullivan / International Energy Agency


                                                                                                                                                     20
Top 10 Global Energy Trends
       Major
       Trend                               2010                                  2015                                      2020

     Power Demand       Non-OECD countries                  China becomes                    Global electrification              Big expansion of
1       Growth            Surpass OECD                     largest consumer                     reaches 80%                   electric/hybrid vehicles

      New Age of                                         CCGT favourite generation technology                    Growth in global pipeline network
2     Natural Gas        Massive boost in LNG availability                   Shale gas boom in USA

      Clean Coal
                       Carbon Capture and Storage pilot plants                                         Commercial CCS viability & large-scale dev-t
3    Commercialisa
         tion                                            Ultrasupercritical technology becomes prevalent

        Nuclear               56 reactors under construction globally                                Nuclear renaissance in            480+ reactors
4     resurgence                                       Massive nuclear expansion in China           some European countries             operational

     Renewable grid    Solar and wind reach grid parity in EU and Japan                                                     Renewables share in power
5        parity                                         Grid parity reached in majority of developed world              generation: 25% - globally, 30% - EU

        Smarter                                              Expansion of virtual power plants
6        Grids          Smart meters take off in US and Europe                                 Smart meters reach most consumers in developed world

        Energy        Green buildings become norm in developed world                                                         Global penetration of micro-
7      Efficiency                                             Global coverage for energy-efficient lighting                  renewables and micro-CHP

                                Energy storage market              Improved battery technologies emerge               Grid-scale energy storage takes off
8    Energy Storage
                                  reaches $50 billion                    (Li-ion, NiZn, Molten Salt)                       (pumped storage, CAES)

                       “Peak shaving” through energy efficiency,         Smart meters optimise consumer                  Direct load control of smart
9      Demand
      Management          promotion of embedded generation            usage patterns and flatten peak demand             appliances via remote man-t

        Market        Most power generation markets fully liberalised                                           Growing trans-regional power trading
10   Liberalisation                                                Focus on emerging markets retail liberalisation


                                                                                                                                                            21
Global Energy & Environment Market … Headline Market Issues

 The global energy market is challenged by three
 interlocking issues that make present energy      Fossil Fuel Power will continue to
 markets both attractive and complex:              dominate and will grow dramatically in
                                                   the next 20 years.
      Fuel Costs & Security of Supply Issues,
                                                   Global Primary Energy demand to
      Environmental Issues
                                                   increase by over 50% between now and
      Growth in Global Energy Demand               2030.
                                                   World Electricity Demand to increase
                                                   60% for same period.

                   Fuel Supply                     Over 70% of this increase comes from
                    and Costs                      developing countries, led by China and
                                                   India.
                                                   CO2 Emissions reach 40 Gt in 2030, a
                                                   55% increase over 2005 level.
                                                   Significant          Global         Growth
                                  Global
                                                   Opportunities for Power Generation,
     Environment                 Energy
                                 Demand            Energy        Efficiency      and    Water
                                                   Management.




                                                                                                22
Global Energy & Environment Market …. Evolution of Market
Issues
  Major           1970                             1980                             1990                         2000                        2010
  Issue
              Libya nationalises                     Major strikes in UK
                                                                                  Extremely cold weather in
              British Petroleum                      as coal production                                                                   Fears over security
   Fuel       concession & Iraq                             is cut
                                                                                  Europe increases demand          US boom
                                                                                                                                          of gas supplies from
                                                                                        and oil prices            followed by
Supply/Cost      follows soon                                                                                                                  e.g Russia
                                                                                                                      crash
  Trends                                                                                                                     Acceleration of
                           First wave of
                                                                ‘Dash for Gas’                                                 oil prices
                              Nuclear

                                                                                                             German government
                Prices rise as oil                                                                         announces plans to phase
  Global                                      Windfall profits tax enacted                                    out nuclear power
                embargo begins                                                                                                            Emergence of major
                                                  and later reduced
  Energy                                                                                                                                  capacity gaps across
 Demand                     Oil embargo ends                               Production outages in                              China          Europe & NA
                                                                                North Sea                                     boom

                                                                                                                   Greenhouse gas           Heightened public
                                           EU Directive for air-quality             Adoption of EU Large          emissions allowance          objection to
                                            standards and smoke                      Combustion Plant               trading scheme              emissions
Environment                                                                           Directive (LCPD)
  Issues                                                       Chernobyl disaster                                        20: 20: 20 EU
                                                               challenges nuclear                                                                   Global water
                                                                                                                           vision for
                                                                     safety                                                                            Stress
                                                                                                                          renewables


                                                                                                                                2011:
                                                                                                                                • Security of Energy Supply
                                                                                                                                • Portfolio Diversification
                                                                                                                                • Energy Efficiency
                                                                                                                                • Capacity Optimisation
                                                                                                                                • Integration of Renewables
                                                                                                                                • Sustainable Water


                                                                                                                                                                 23
Timeline for Major Market Issues

           Major                           2010                         2015                            2020                              2025                     2030
           Issue
                                              Energy from Waste
                            Oil passes                                  Demand for liquid fuel                                                           Coal reaches
                                                 in Emerging                                      Resurgence
                            $100 per                                      falling after 2015                                                         Almost 45% of energy
                                                   Markets                                        Of Nuclear
       Fuel Supply            barrel                                                                                                                Consumption, following
                                                                                                                  Growth of natural gas            growth in India and China
        And Costs                  Oil drops
                                                                                Acceleration of                   kept in check by high
                                  To $35 per         Continued acceleration
                                                                                 Natural gas                            gas prices
                                    barrel             of coal-fired power

                                         Growth dominated                             Long-running                                                      Global Energy Demand
                                         By India & China                            boom in Russia                                                    almost double 2000 levels
     Global Energy                                                                                                Developing economies
                                                                 Deceleration and
                                                                                                                  pass 40% of electricity
        Demand                                                   maturation of EU
                                                                                                                        demand
                                         Growth Resumed                                                                                        Electricity generation passes
                                           in all regions                                                                                           30,000 billion kWh

                                                                                                                                     Potable water
                              China overtakes the US as         Accelerated investment
                                                                                                      20% Renewable                 consumption up
                              the world’s biggest emitter         in carbon capture
                                                                                                      Energy in Europe               50% on 1995
      Environment                       of CO2                       and storage
                                                                                                                                                                 Global
        Issues                                                                                                             Stationary fuel cells
                                                                                                                                                              CO2 Emissions
                                                   Global Renewables      Boom in RO                                            contribute to
                                                                                                                                                               reach 40 Gt
                                                        Growth            Desalination                                    distributed generation



                   30,000
        Global
     Electricity
                   20,000
  Generation
(billion kWrh)
                   10,000

                       0
                                            2010                              2015                         2020                             2025   Source: Frost & Sullivan and EIA.


                                                                                                                                                                               24
Growth in Electricity Generation by Fuel

                               35,000


                                                                                                                     2.1%
                               30,000                                                               Coal
                                                                        Other                                      1.3%
                                                                        renewables
                                                                                        -3.3%
Electricity Generation (TWh)




                               25,000                                   Wind                -1.8%           Oil

                                                                                                                      2.4%                   2007-2020
                                                                        Hydro                       Gas
                               20,000                                                                              1.5%
                                                                                                                                             2020-2030
                                                                                                                   1.8%
                                                                        Nuclear               Nuclear
                                                                                                                      2.9%
                               15,000
                                                                        Gas                                         2.2%
                                                                                                Hydro
                                                                                                                    2.2%
                               10,000
                                                                        Oil                                                                              15.2%
                                                                                                Wind
                                                                                                                             5.0%
                                5,000                                   Coal
                                                                                                                                      7.7%
                                                                                     Other renewables
                                                                                                                                    7.2%
                                   0
                                                                                        -5%                0%          5%          10%         15%                 20%
                                           2007       2020      2030
                                                                                                                   Compound Annual Growth Rate

                                                                                                                Source : International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan




                                 Continuing strong global growth for renewables:
                                        Expect further drops in price and cost competitiveness
                                        Expect ongoing expansion of the technology supply base

                                                                                                                                                                   25
Renewable Energy Industry – EU Snapshot, Future
Growth
                    2008   2009   2010    2011       2012
                                                                    Example: EU Installed Capacity, MW, 2015
   Wind Energy
                                                               •   Wind energy will continue to be the most
                                                                   important renewable energy source, with most of
                                                                   the total installed capacity in 2015.

   Solar Energy

                                                                              Wind Power = 153 GW



 Biomass Energy

                                                                              Solar Power = 80 GW



Geothermal Energy
                                                                              Biomass Power = 20 GW


                                                                           Geothermal Power = 8 GW
  Marine Energy
                                                                           Marine Power less than 200 MW

                                   Source: Frost & Sullivan.



                                                                                                                     26
How CleanTech has Expanded and how the Segments Look
Today …
                                           Environmental Technologies and Services

                    Fuels & Feedstocks          Alternative/               Emission                   Energy
                                                Renewables                 Reduction                 Efficiency
                                            • Wind, Solar, Biomass   • Advanced turbines       • Smart meters & grids
                    • Clean fuels
Power               • Biofuels              • Fuel cells             • Air pollution control   • Energy management
& Energy                                    • Hydro                  • Coal to gas             • T&D infrastructure
                    • Hydrogen
                                            • Wave, tidal            • Filter technology       • Energy storage
                    • Biomass
                                            • Geothermal             • Clean coal              • Advanced batteries
                    • Waste to Energy
                                                                     • CCS
                    • Biomass               • Micro-renewables       • Ventilation             • Green buildings
Building            • Fuel Management       • Solar thermal          • Extraction              • Low energy lighting
Technologies                                • Heat pumps             • Insulation              • Building controls
                                            • BIPV                                             • Smart homes
                    • Bio solids            • Gasification           • Air filtration          • Waste to energy
Environment         • Bio wastes            • Anaerobic digestion    • VOC control             • Water recycling
(CleanTech)         • Biogas                • Pyrolysis              • Water & wastewater      • Energy recovery
                                                                     treatment                 • Waste recycling
                                                                     • Waste management        • Desalination
                    • Biodiesel             • Fuel cell vehicles     • Electric vehicles       • Mass transportation
Transport           • Ethanol               • Solar                  • Hybrid vehicles         • Vehicle efficiency
(Road, rail, air)   • LPG                                            • Filters                 technology
                    • Dual fuel systems                              • Converters etc.

                                            • Power converters                                 • Energy management
                    • Fuel delivery &                                • Advanced process
Industrial          dispensing … valves,    • SCADA                  control
                                                                                               software
                                            • Wireless comms                                   • Motors & drives
                    actuators etc.
                                                                                               • Pumps, compressors etc.



                                                                                                                           27
CleanTech Issues, Challenges & Opportunities

         Issues & Challenges:
         • Green investment is too often not price competitive
         • Too many markets remain beholden to incentives & grants
         • Regulations cover the ‘What’ and not so much the ‘How’




         Opportunities:
         • When the issues go beyond green
         • Where the added value becomes truly tangible
         • When secure financing is available
         • When there is a real RoI
         • .... When the risk for the customer is low.




                                                                     28
Outlook for the Environment & Energy Industry
Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch For in 2020

                                       Energy Efficiency in
                                           Buildings
             Carbon Capture
              and Storage                                           SMART
                                                                   Buildings



Energy Recovery
  from Waste
                                Top 10 Markets of the
                                                                               LED Lighting
                                       Future                                   Revolution
                              Key technology platforms that
                               Key technology platforms that
                              are poised to have a profound
                               are poised to have a profound
                              impact on a number of sectors
                               impact on a number of sectors
                              across the globe. These areas
                               across the globe. These areas
                                present a potential high ROI.
                                present a potential high ROI.
 Water Re-Use &
  Desalination
                                                                               SMART Grid




                                                                Advanced Batteries
                   Solar PV                                     and Energy Storage

                                             Fuel Cells                                Source: Frost & Sullivan


                                                                                                          29
Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN: “Flexibility in Capacity” And
 “Robotic Technology” Combined with Artificial Intelligence Are Key Features

                                                         Future Plant                    SMART Factory 2020
   Current Plant
                            Material Handling conveyer    Factory of the future will Lower Production Costs and shorten Innovation and
                                                          Production Cycles
                              Mixing Plant

                              Processing Plant            Work Simulation                                                        Material Handling conveyer
        Drying Chamber                                    10% decrease in production time; 30%
                               Separation Plant           savings in project cost; 20% reduction in                                    Mixing & Processing Plant
Waste Water                                               manual labour; Reduced CO2 emissions                                         LV and MV drives
Processing Plant              Heating Plant                                                                                            coupled with energy
                               Batching & Blending                                                                                     efficient products
                               Plant                                          Drying Chamber
                                                                                                                                        Separation Plant
                             Cleaning Plant
                            Chilling Plant                      Waste Water
                                                                Processing Plant                                                         Heating Plant
      Quality Plant
                         Packaging Shop                  Premium                                                                          Batching & Blending
                                                         efficiency class                                                                 Plant
                                                         motors, pumps
                                                         and compressors;                                                                  Chilling Plant
                                                         all requiring low
                                                         voltage drives                                                         Remote Support and Diagnosis
    FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES                                                                                                         of Production Equipment,
                                                                        Cleaning Plant
                                                                                                                                Virtual Reality based
    • Current Sensing
                             • Reduced Complexity                                                                               maintenance and Planning
    • Cloud Computing
                             • Software as a Service
    • Digital Factory
                             • Software configurable hardware                                         Quality Plant
    • Mobile Applications                                                                                             Packaging Shop
                             • Sustainability
    • OELD Displays
                             • Virtualization


  M65B-18                                                                                                                                                    30
Rapid Developments in IT will Drive Interoperability, Miniaturization
 and Intelligence of Systems

 Broad Segmentation of Smart Factory                                 Predictive Maintenance
                                                                        Maintenance decisions based on future predictions
                                                                       Detection anomalies early and understanding its
                                                                     implications on the equipment


                                                                      Equipment Diagnostics



                                                                            Acquire Validate            Temp, pressure, flow etc
                                                                                 Data




                                  Source: www.smartfactory-kl.de                           Analyze              Design information, Maintenance
                                                                    Validated Data       Performance            History, Operating Mode

  Successful working of a Smart Factory depends on rapid
                                                                               Standardized
developments in IT and its influence across industrial
                                                                               Performance                Predict Degraded         Economics
technologies                                                                                                  Operation
  These include smart field devices, communication protocols,
control systems, PDAs and manufacturing software solutions                                     Cost Benefits
                                                                                               from avoiding                    Take
   Industrial wireless is expected to play a very crucial role in                                                             Corrective
                                                                                               potential failures
enabling communication between all these smart devices and                                                                      Action
digital networks
                                                                                                                        Prioritizing Maintenance
                                                                                                                        work orders


                                                                                                                                           31
Convergence of Sustainable and Smart Solutions will Drive Automation Growth


Market                      How to achieve greater
Requirement:                 operational efficiency                              Market           How do I enable effective
                              through sustainable                                Requirement:    information flow among IT
                                    means?                                                       and Automation solutions?
Response:
                          Vendor independent                                     Response:        Seamless communication
                          services from design                                                      from plant to business
                        stages onwards until end               Strategic                         level powered by solutions
                               product life                    Services                            like MES, EMI, PLM …




                                                  Energy                    Manufacturing
                                                  Efficiency                Software




Market                 How much more efficient is              Smart
Requirement:            the product from Supplier              Technology       Market          How can I have smarter plant?
                          A than Supplier B???                                  Requirement:

Response:               Energy efficient ratings of
                         products will be a norm                                Response:       Industrial wireless, predictive
                                                                                                   maintenance and smart
                                                                                                devices will synergize to offer
Source: Frost & Sullivan.                                                                           real time intelligence


                                                                                                                            32
E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be
Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020




              Total 30 million –                                   Total 10 Million –
                  2 Wheelers (2020)                                    4 Wheelers (2020)




   Sanyo Enacle              XM 3000 Electric Moped   The GEM Peapod                 The Smith Newton




                                                                                                        33
Electric Vehicle Market Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields


                                          Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel



                                                 Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs
                                                                    and Government



                  Utilities                                       Integrators                                        OEMs

    Key
Responsibility:
                                                                                                                                Key
Development of
                                                                                                                            Responsibility:
   Charging
 Infrastructure                                                                                                             Promotion of EV
                                                                                                                                 use
                          Supplies
                                                                                                           Development of
                      infrastructure to
                                                                                                             performing
                       distribute their
                                                                                                              batteries
                           energy

                                          Infrastructure
              Charging                       supplier                                                          System/Battery
               Station                                           Government
                                                                                                               Manufacturers
            Manufacturers



                                                Could work to improve charging time and safety


                                                                                                                                              34
Mobility Integrators (MI) to Offer Innovative Mobility Solutions To
Complement Commuters’ Inter-modality and Multi-Modality Travel Split

                                       Telecom
                                       Operators
                                                                                           The Concept of a Dynamic
                                                     Transport Operators
                                                                                           Transport Solution Integrating
                                                          Rail          Bus
                                                                                           Different Modes Under a
                                                                                           Single Entity to make
                                                                                           Personal Transportation Easy
                                                                                           and Simple
    Online Mobility                                                 Carsharing

   Booking Agencies:
    Long Distance Mobility
                                                                    Bikes
                                             Mobility
                                            Integrator
  Short Distance Urban Mobility
                                                                                              MIs will start exploiting the
                                                                                              Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0
                                                                                              Internet service to offer
                                                              Technology                      mobility-based
                                  Payment Engine           Solutions Provider                 applications (apps) on smart
                                                                                              phones.
                                                                 Technology Evolution

                                                                   MOBILE
                                                                   2.0
                                                                  WEB 2.0
                                                                              *The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
                                                                                                                   Source: Frost & Sullivan


                                                                                                                                     35
Final Thoughts

  CleanTech markets are converging ….. Efficiency is emerging as the most important
  value proposition

  Huge mid and long-term potential for renewables still very much exists (short-term
  dominated by wind; solar gaining share)

  Smart technology is re-defining the market and becoming integral to energy efficiency
  … Smart Solutions have leapfrogged pure ‘Green’ Solutions

  Technology convergence leads to convergence of competition and re-defined value
  chains … Supply relationships are changing

  It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of the
  value chain which have most profitability for you

  All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable
  opportunities




                                                                                           36
Questions & Answers

 Iain Jawad
 Director Strategic Partnerships,
 + 44 20 7343 8311
 + 44 7961 769545
 Iain.jawad@frost.com

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Frost&Sullivan: Mega-trend Presentation MTF11

  • 1. Looking Through the Crystal Ball Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World 12th May 2011 Courtesy of : Money Talks Forum 1
  • 2. Definition of a Mega Trend Impact of Mega Trends on Key What is a Mega Trend? Organisational Functions Mega Trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change 2
  • 3. Overview of Top Mega Trends URBANIZATIO Mega City Future of Global Power Generation ENERG Mega City Future of Global Power Generation Mega Regions Innovating to Zero !: Zero Emission Y Mega Regions Innovating to Zero !: Zero Emission N Mega Corridors Mega Corridors Technologies Technologies SMART Cities and SMART SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure Infrastructure MOBILITY Generation Y Electric Electric Vehicles Vehicles Generation Y E- Women Empowerment and Women CE Electric Electric Aircrafts Aircrafts Women Empowerment and Women CE SOCIAL Power to the Middle Class Power to the Middle Class Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies Developing Economies INFRASTRUCTU Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization Future Investment in Future Investment in Infrastructure: Infrastructure: RE Power, Water and Transport Power, Water and Transport Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Change Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Change ECONOMY New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing Emerging Transportation Corridors Emerging Transportation Corridors Hotspots Hotspots Future Global 500 Companies by Region Future Global 500 Companies by Region New Trade Zones New Trade Zones BUSINES New Business Models New Business Models S SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud Computing Computing SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite TECHNOLOGY SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite WELLNESS HEALTH & Orbits Orbits From Fat to Fit: Health, From Fat to Fit: Health, Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Wellness and Well Being Wellness and Well Being Haptic Technology Haptic Technology RoboSlaves RoboSlaves Future of Consumer Electronics Future of Consumer Electronics Wireless Intelligence FACTOR Wireless Intelligence Factory of the Future: SMART and SMART Factory of the Future: SMART and Future Broadband Applications Future Broadband Applications GREEN Y GREEN World War 3: Cyber Warfare World War 3: Cyber Warfare 3
  • 4. What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000? • China as an emerging Super power • E- Internet Retail and E-Commerce • From Industrial to Information Society • Outsourcing as a business model • ....... 4
  • 5. Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS City With A Minimum Cities Combining With The Corridors Connecting Population Of 10 Suburbs To Form Regions. Two Major Cities or Mega Million (Population over 15 Million) Regions EXAMPLE: Greater EXAMPLE: Johannesburg EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- London and Pretoria (forming Shenzhen-Guangzhou in “Jo-Toria”) China (Population 120 Million) 5
  • 6. Top 20 Megacities – Ranking 50% Of The Top 20 Megacities In 2025 Will Be From The Developing Countries Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities - Ranking (Global), 2009-2025 2009- 45 Top 20 Megacities in 2025 Top 20 Megacities in 2025 40 1. Population (million) 10 Cities from the 35 Tokyo developing economies. 6. 9. 11.Mumbai 30 2. Mexico São City 8. Paulo 16. Delhi 25 New Shanghai 12. Osaka- York Kobe New definition of Megacity ‘25 20 15 3. Los 18. Guangzhou 14. Beijing 17. Moscow Angeles 10. U.N. definition 10 Buenos of Megacity ‘09 Aires 5 5. Chicago 7.Paris 15.Hong Kong 19.Seoul 4. London 20. Miami 13.Philadelphia 0 (3) (1) 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Ranking based on population and GDP * Size of the bubble – GDP 2025 45 Top 20 Megacities in 2009 Top 20 Megacities in 2009 40 8 Cities from the developing Population (million) 35 1. economies. Tokyo 30 25 8. Mexico City 19.Mumbai 2. 9. São Paulo 17. Shanghai 13. 20 New York 7. Osaka- Moscow Kobe 15 20. Rio de Janeiro 3. Los 5. Paris 11. Buenos 14. Seoul Angeles Aires U.N. definition 10 16. Toronto of Megacity ‘09 5 4. London 6.Chicago 12.Hong Kong 18. Madrid 10.Philadelphia 15. Miami 0 (3) (1) 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 * Size of the bubble – GDP 2009 Ranking based on population and GDP * Cities from emerging economies Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan M65B-18 6
  • 7. Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts Smart Diamond to define Smart City ‘S” Governance ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business Source: Frost & Sullivan ‘S’ City ‘S’ Buildings Planning ‘S’ ICT ‘S’ Mobility ‘S’ Energy ‘S’ Information Technology 7
  • 8. Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Göteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Songdo Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen Vancouver St Davids Seattle Toronto Freiburg Portland Paris Dongtan Treasure Island Barcelona Changsha Destiny Coyote Springs Meixi Lake Babcock Ranch Khajuraho Arcosanti Pune Singapore City Bogota Kochi Legend Waitakere, N.Z. Cities built from scratch Curitiba Cape Town Masdar Moreland, Australia Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities Source: Frost & Sullivan 8
  • 9. “Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition Energy/Infrastructure Players • T&D Technology • Power Electronics • Renewable Energy • Integrated Distribution Management • Substation Automation • AMI-Enabled Metering • Etc. • IP Networks • Building Automation • Digital Technology • Demand-Side Management • Analysis Software • Connectivity of devices • Wireless Communication • Monitoring and Sensing • Technology Integration • Smart Grid Integration • Network Security • Etc. • Etc. Automation/Building IT Players Control Players Source: Frost & Sullivan. 9
  • 10. “Smart” is the New Green Smart Cities Smart Smart Smart Technology Infrastructure Energy Smart Smart Smart Grids Smart Clouds Mobility Buildings Smart Smart Smart Smart Meters Materials Bandages Phones 10
  • 11. Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020 Used For: Used For: Meet Ups, Restaurant and Digital Marketing: Nightclub Reviews, Receiving Updates on Concert Events Promotion and Offers Used For: Used For: Networking in Business Local Real Estate News, Conferences: Updates on Geo Socialising with Potential Contacts Friends 11
  • 12. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle Personalization Techno Savvy Civic and Demanding and and and Connected Environmentally Impatient – “Fast Individualization 24 X 7 Friendly and the Furious” Gaming Gizmos Personalized Search and Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport News Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalized Products Paperless Banking Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing) Microblogs 12
  • 13. Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will “Act as a Butler” in Everyday Life Robots as Pets Robots for Household Chores Robots to Wait on Hand and Robots for Foot Companionship Robots as Robots To Help With Strategic Waiters Planning and Business Robots as Nannies 13
  • 14. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With Multiple Applications Welding Drilling Medical Robots Performing Robots in Space Low Invasive Surgery Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020 Material Packaging Transportation Robots Military Robots Handling 14
  • 15. Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences Products without leaving their homes Virtual Classes and Laboratories Social Networking: 3D Avatars and Daily 3D Field Trips Enabling People to Lead to Different Countries and Planets Multiple Lives 15
  • 16. Fluid Interfaces: Haptic Technology Enabling Seamless, Gestural, Intuitive and Ambient Interaction Between Physical and Virtual Realms “Holodecks”: F-16 Haptic Entertainment Flight Simulator Experiences Wearable Computing: Gestural Interfaces Are Being Developed that Allows Humans to Interact and Augment Physical World with Digital Data Applications of Wearable Computing: Using Hand as a Keypad or Dial Pad Intuitive Haptic Gaming Experiences Surface Computers: Browsing of Internet on Any Surface Through Gestures Source: MIT Media Group, 2010 16
  • 17. New Consumer Electronics In 2020: Faster, Smaller, Cheaper and Innovative & Customized with Even Shorter Development Life-Cycles From Laptops To Tabletops From Laptops To Tabletops Mobile Phones: Projection, Mobile Phones: Projection, From 2D to 3D HDTV From 2D to 3D HDTV Visual Search and Morphing Visual Search and Morphing Holographic “Projection Keyboard” Mobile Projection Technology Technologies in 2020 3D HDTV– use of auto stereoscopic displays with micro Touchscreen Window With Built-in lenses) to transmit images Camera, Scanner, Wi-fi, Google Maps Intuitive Search Tools. differently to right and left eyes Laptops with integrated monitor and keyboard. E-Media E-Media E-Book E-Newspaper Reader Morphing– Allowing Users to Transform Mobiles Into Different Shapes M65B-18 17
  • 18. Real-Time Wireless Intelligence in 2020: IT Infrastructure To Be Around 80% Wireless on a Single Integrated Platform UTILITIES: Smart Meters, Wireless GPS: Atleast 75% of automobiles Technology and Sensors enabling installed with GPS equipment Machine to Machine (M2M) enabling intelligent traffic communication and monitoring of management system. energy use 4G Mobile technology (LTE, WiMAX) enabling integration into any wireless BUILDINGS: Wireless AIRPORTS: Free Wi-Fi platform Building Automation Access and Real – Time CCTV surveillance with built-in Systems at Homes and Virtual Monitoring with Network Card, DVR and LCD Offices Connected to secure, high-speed, wireless Monitor integrated into the iPhone, Laptop, Car data networking wireless platform Systems for Easy Control and NETWORK Communication INTELLIGENCE Managed by A Central Server SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY (such as GALILEO) to provide navigation for aviation, ground and maritime HOTSPOTS: City-wide Wi-Fi operations Network (Eg. Sunnyvale, California) with Hotspots in Cafes, Hotels and other RAILWAYS: Real-Time important locations EMERGENCY SERVICES: Wireless Video Surveillance in Wireless surveillance connecting fire railways stations for event and police forces to Central Server detection, preparedness, for monitoring, control and command prevention, protection, response communications and recovery M65B-18 18
  • 19. Innovative Technologies of the Future Advanced Batteries and Storage Flexible SMART Materials Electronics Green IT Nanomaterials Top 10 Technologies of the Future Lasers Solar PV White Biotech 3D Integration Autonomous Systems 19
  • 20. Global Power Generation in 2020: Shifting Regional and Fuel Balance – Power Generation from Renewables and Nuclear Energy to Increase to 36% in 2020 (from 32% in 2007) By 2020, nearly half of world electricity to be produced in emerging regions 2007 Energy Market: Global Power Generation (TWh) by Region (World), 2020 2020 26,620 TWh 19,756 TWh Power Generation in TWh Source: Frost & Sullivan / International Energy Agency 20
  • 21. Top 10 Global Energy Trends Major Trend 2010 2015 2020 Power Demand Non-OECD countries China becomes Global electrification Big expansion of 1 Growth Surpass OECD largest consumer reaches 80% electric/hybrid vehicles New Age of CCGT favourite generation technology Growth in global pipeline network 2 Natural Gas Massive boost in LNG availability Shale gas boom in USA Clean Coal Carbon Capture and Storage pilot plants Commercial CCS viability & large-scale dev-t 3 Commercialisa tion Ultrasupercritical technology becomes prevalent Nuclear 56 reactors under construction globally Nuclear renaissance in 480+ reactors 4 resurgence Massive nuclear expansion in China some European countries operational Renewable grid Solar and wind reach grid parity in EU and Japan Renewables share in power 5 parity Grid parity reached in majority of developed world generation: 25% - globally, 30% - EU Smarter Expansion of virtual power plants 6 Grids Smart meters take off in US and Europe Smart meters reach most consumers in developed world Energy Green buildings become norm in developed world Global penetration of micro- 7 Efficiency Global coverage for energy-efficient lighting renewables and micro-CHP Energy storage market Improved battery technologies emerge Grid-scale energy storage takes off 8 Energy Storage reaches $50 billion (Li-ion, NiZn, Molten Salt) (pumped storage, CAES) “Peak shaving” through energy efficiency, Smart meters optimise consumer Direct load control of smart 9 Demand Management promotion of embedded generation usage patterns and flatten peak demand appliances via remote man-t Market Most power generation markets fully liberalised Growing trans-regional power trading 10 Liberalisation Focus on emerging markets retail liberalisation 21
  • 22. Global Energy & Environment Market … Headline Market Issues The global energy market is challenged by three interlocking issues that make present energy Fossil Fuel Power will continue to markets both attractive and complex: dominate and will grow dramatically in the next 20 years. Fuel Costs & Security of Supply Issues, Global Primary Energy demand to Environmental Issues increase by over 50% between now and Growth in Global Energy Demand 2030. World Electricity Demand to increase 60% for same period. Fuel Supply Over 70% of this increase comes from and Costs developing countries, led by China and India. CO2 Emissions reach 40 Gt in 2030, a 55% increase over 2005 level. Significant Global Growth Global Opportunities for Power Generation, Environment Energy Demand Energy Efficiency and Water Management. 22
  • 23. Global Energy & Environment Market …. Evolution of Market Issues Major 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Issue Libya nationalises Major strikes in UK Extremely cold weather in British Petroleum as coal production Fears over security Fuel concession & Iraq is cut Europe increases demand US boom of gas supplies from and oil prices followed by Supply/Cost follows soon e.g Russia crash Trends Acceleration of First wave of ‘Dash for Gas’ oil prices Nuclear German government Prices rise as oil announces plans to phase Global Windfall profits tax enacted out nuclear power embargo begins Emergence of major and later reduced Energy capacity gaps across Demand Oil embargo ends Production outages in China Europe & NA North Sea boom Greenhouse gas Heightened public EU Directive for air-quality Adoption of EU Large emissions allowance objection to standards and smoke Combustion Plant trading scheme emissions Environment Directive (LCPD) Issues Chernobyl disaster 20: 20: 20 EU challenges nuclear Global water vision for safety Stress renewables 2011: • Security of Energy Supply • Portfolio Diversification • Energy Efficiency • Capacity Optimisation • Integration of Renewables • Sustainable Water 23
  • 24. Timeline for Major Market Issues Major 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Issue Energy from Waste Oil passes Demand for liquid fuel Coal reaches in Emerging Resurgence $100 per falling after 2015 Almost 45% of energy Markets Of Nuclear Fuel Supply barrel Consumption, following Growth of natural gas growth in India and China And Costs Oil drops Acceleration of kept in check by high To $35 per Continued acceleration Natural gas gas prices barrel of coal-fired power Growth dominated Long-running Global Energy Demand By India & China boom in Russia almost double 2000 levels Global Energy Developing economies Deceleration and pass 40% of electricity Demand maturation of EU demand Growth Resumed Electricity generation passes in all regions 30,000 billion kWh Potable water China overtakes the US as Accelerated investment 20% Renewable consumption up the world’s biggest emitter in carbon capture Energy in Europe 50% on 1995 Environment of CO2 and storage Global Issues Stationary fuel cells CO2 Emissions Global Renewables Boom in RO contribute to reach 40 Gt Growth Desalination distributed generation 30,000 Global Electricity 20,000 Generation (billion kWrh) 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Frost & Sullivan and EIA. 24
  • 25. Growth in Electricity Generation by Fuel 35,000 2.1% 30,000 Coal Other 1.3% renewables -3.3% Electricity Generation (TWh) 25,000 Wind -1.8% Oil 2.4% 2007-2020 Hydro Gas 20,000 1.5% 2020-2030 1.8% Nuclear Nuclear 2.9% 15,000 Gas 2.2% Hydro 2.2% 10,000 Oil 15.2% Wind 5.0% 5,000 Coal 7.7% Other renewables 7.2% 0 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2007 2020 2030 Compound Annual Growth Rate Source : International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan Continuing strong global growth for renewables: Expect further drops in price and cost competitiveness Expect ongoing expansion of the technology supply base 25
  • 26. Renewable Energy Industry – EU Snapshot, Future Growth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Example: EU Installed Capacity, MW, 2015 Wind Energy • Wind energy will continue to be the most important renewable energy source, with most of the total installed capacity in 2015. Solar Energy Wind Power = 153 GW Biomass Energy Solar Power = 80 GW Geothermal Energy Biomass Power = 20 GW Geothermal Power = 8 GW Marine Energy Marine Power less than 200 MW Source: Frost & Sullivan. 26
  • 27. How CleanTech has Expanded and how the Segments Look Today … Environmental Technologies and Services Fuels & Feedstocks Alternative/ Emission Energy Renewables Reduction Efficiency • Wind, Solar, Biomass • Advanced turbines • Smart meters & grids • Clean fuels Power • Biofuels • Fuel cells • Air pollution control • Energy management & Energy • Hydro • Coal to gas • T&D infrastructure • Hydrogen • Wave, tidal • Filter technology • Energy storage • Biomass • Geothermal • Clean coal • Advanced batteries • Waste to Energy • CCS • Biomass • Micro-renewables • Ventilation • Green buildings Building • Fuel Management • Solar thermal • Extraction • Low energy lighting Technologies • Heat pumps • Insulation • Building controls • BIPV • Smart homes • Bio solids • Gasification • Air filtration • Waste to energy Environment • Bio wastes • Anaerobic digestion • VOC control • Water recycling (CleanTech) • Biogas • Pyrolysis • Water & wastewater • Energy recovery treatment • Waste recycling • Waste management • Desalination • Biodiesel • Fuel cell vehicles • Electric vehicles • Mass transportation Transport • Ethanol • Solar • Hybrid vehicles • Vehicle efficiency (Road, rail, air) • LPG • Filters technology • Dual fuel systems • Converters etc. • Power converters • Energy management • Fuel delivery & • Advanced process Industrial dispensing … valves, • SCADA control software • Wireless comms • Motors & drives actuators etc. • Pumps, compressors etc. 27
  • 28. CleanTech Issues, Challenges & Opportunities Issues & Challenges: • Green investment is too often not price competitive • Too many markets remain beholden to incentives & grants • Regulations cover the ‘What’ and not so much the ‘How’ Opportunities: • When the issues go beyond green • Where the added value becomes truly tangible • When secure financing is available • When there is a real RoI • .... When the risk for the customer is low. 28
  • 29. Outlook for the Environment & Energy Industry Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch For in 2020 Energy Efficiency in Buildings Carbon Capture and Storage SMART Buildings Energy Recovery from Waste Top 10 Markets of the LED Lighting Future Revolution Key technology platforms that Key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas across the globe. These areas present a potential high ROI. present a potential high ROI. Water Re-Use & Desalination SMART Grid Advanced Batteries Solar PV and Energy Storage Fuel Cells Source: Frost & Sullivan 29
  • 30. Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN: “Flexibility in Capacity” And “Robotic Technology” Combined with Artificial Intelligence Are Key Features Future Plant SMART Factory 2020 Current Plant Material Handling conveyer Factory of the future will Lower Production Costs and shorten Innovation and Production Cycles Mixing Plant Processing Plant Work Simulation Material Handling conveyer Drying Chamber 10% decrease in production time; 30% Separation Plant savings in project cost; 20% reduction in Mixing & Processing Plant Waste Water manual labour; Reduced CO2 emissions LV and MV drives Processing Plant Heating Plant coupled with energy Batching & Blending efficient products Plant Drying Chamber Separation Plant Cleaning Plant Chilling Plant Waste Water Processing Plant Heating Plant Quality Plant Packaging Shop Premium Batching & Blending efficiency class Plant motors, pumps and compressors; Chilling Plant all requiring low voltage drives Remote Support and Diagnosis FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES of Production Equipment, Cleaning Plant Virtual Reality based • Current Sensing • Reduced Complexity maintenance and Planning • Cloud Computing • Software as a Service • Digital Factory • Software configurable hardware Quality Plant • Mobile Applications Packaging Shop • Sustainability • OELD Displays • Virtualization M65B-18 30
  • 31. Rapid Developments in IT will Drive Interoperability, Miniaturization and Intelligence of Systems Broad Segmentation of Smart Factory Predictive Maintenance Maintenance decisions based on future predictions Detection anomalies early and understanding its implications on the equipment Equipment Diagnostics Acquire Validate Temp, pressure, flow etc Data Source: www.smartfactory-kl.de Analyze Design information, Maintenance Validated Data Performance History, Operating Mode Successful working of a Smart Factory depends on rapid Standardized developments in IT and its influence across industrial Performance Predict Degraded Economics technologies Operation These include smart field devices, communication protocols, control systems, PDAs and manufacturing software solutions Cost Benefits from avoiding Take Industrial wireless is expected to play a very crucial role in Corrective potential failures enabling communication between all these smart devices and Action digital networks Prioritizing Maintenance work orders 31
  • 32. Convergence of Sustainable and Smart Solutions will Drive Automation Growth Market How to achieve greater Requirement: operational efficiency Market How do I enable effective through sustainable Requirement: information flow among IT means? and Automation solutions? Response: Vendor independent Response: Seamless communication services from design from plant to business stages onwards until end Strategic level powered by solutions product life Services like MES, EMI, PLM … Energy Manufacturing Efficiency Software Market How much more efficient is Smart Requirement: the product from Supplier Technology Market How can I have smarter plant? A than Supplier B??? Requirement: Response: Energy efficient ratings of products will be a norm Response: Industrial wireless, predictive maintenance and smart devices will synergize to offer Source: Frost & Sullivan. real time intelligence 32
  • 33. E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020 Total 30 million – Total 10 Million – 2 Wheelers (2020) 4 Wheelers (2020) Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton 33
  • 34. Electric Vehicle Market Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs and Government Utilities Integrators OEMs Key Responsibility: Key Development of Responsibility: Charging Infrastructure Promotion of EV use Supplies Development of infrastructure to performing distribute their batteries energy Infrastructure Charging supplier System/Battery Station Government Manufacturers Manufacturers Could work to improve charging time and safety 34
  • 35. Mobility Integrators (MI) to Offer Innovative Mobility Solutions To Complement Commuters’ Inter-modality and Multi-Modality Travel Split Telecom Operators The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Operators Transport Solution Integrating Rail Bus Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple Online Mobility Carsharing Booking Agencies: Long Distance Mobility Bikes Mobility Integrator Short Distance Urban Mobility MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer Technology mobility-based Payment Engine Solutions Provider applications (apps) on smart phones. Technology Evolution MOBILE 2.0 WEB 2.0 *The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose Source: Frost & Sullivan 35
  • 36. Final Thoughts CleanTech markets are converging ….. Efficiency is emerging as the most important value proposition Huge mid and long-term potential for renewables still very much exists (short-term dominated by wind; solar gaining share) Smart technology is re-defining the market and becoming integral to energy efficiency … Smart Solutions have leapfrogged pure ‘Green’ Solutions Technology convergence leads to convergence of competition and re-defined value chains … Supply relationships are changing It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability for you All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities 36
  • 37. Questions & Answers Iain Jawad Director Strategic Partnerships, + 44 20 7343 8311 + 44 7961 769545 Iain.jawad@frost.com