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Mobile.Broadband John.Frieslaar 10.10.12


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What will the Telecoms look like in 2025???

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Mobile.Broadband John.Frieslaar 10.10.12

  1. 1. Looking towards 2025 …… what changes could we expect?… and how will this affect society? TELE2 Presentation 21st September 2012 John Frieslaar John.frieslaar@huawei.comThriving in a Digital Economy? www.huawei.comPrediction about the future is very difficult, but to some degree thefuture is already here; its just not widely distributed as yet; you willmeet it when you have to; just ensure you do not embrace it with thesame weapons of reason which today arm you against the present … HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
  2. 2. The Emerging Telecoms Environment The Generally agreed vision is that: • By 2030 our cities will be very clever. • Our surroundings – buildings, bus stops, bill boards, cars, phones, maybe even our clothes - will have varying levels of inbuilt intelligence, sensing, tracking and communications capabilities. • This level of connectivity and interaction will fundamentally change how we manage our lives and living spaces – at home, work and play - and all points in between. • All of this will change our views of mobility. • To deliver this vision of the future needs the foundations to be laid now for these future services • Factories of the Future (FoF) Economic development • Energy Efficient Buildings (EeB) • Green Cars (GCI) Sustainability • Future Internet (FI) Social inclusion • Smart health Education • Smart transport • Smart living Public services • Smart energy Improved R&D • E-government NG Products and Services • Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID ….. the strategic question is are we developing the right strategy? Not just in terms of technology, but also in considering what will society need? What futures do we have to consider now to lay the correct foundations? …… HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 2
  3. 3. Exponential Growth Driving the next 10 years of Data Growth ... Gb2000018000 84% CAGR1600014000 Abundance120001000080006000 34% CAGR4000 203% expected increase2000 Crazy Idea in wireless traffic over fixed line 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Huawei Research 2012 Wireless Fixed HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 3
  4. 4. What happens when we massage the numbers?30000 92% CAGR2500020000 230% Difference in traffic volume 84% CAGR15000 75% CAGR10000 Small changes in user behaviour can result in big network 34% CAGR 5000 demands 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Wireless 1 Wireless 2 Wireless 3 Fixed HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 4
  5. 5. Telecoms and ICT has great potential Economic development: ICT is a critical element of the knowledge Growing CO2 Lowering CO2 economy e.g. BIG DATA, E-Gov, e-Education, Smart Cities etc Emissions Emissions Sustainability: ICT can deliver more sustainable services, distance Effective Efficient Managed DATA Exploited for Resource Usage learning, remote working, improved health services and other services to save and manage scarce resources FOSSIL FUEL Energy Generation NON-SUSTAINABLE RENEWABLE Social inclusion: Universal access to services online will drive a Energy Generation SUSTAINABLE more participatory, cohesive society Education: Developing creativity and skills key to economic growth Data EDUCATION Public services: Delivering more effective and efficient public Information Gov- services at a lower cost with greater inclusion SERVICES Knowledge Improved R&D: Supporting more collaborative models to drive the MEDICAL Understanding Internet online Economy Products and Services: Next Generation services will be extensive, MANUFACTURING Deepening Pool of TRANSPORT include high-quality video streaming, enabling visual networking for Knowledge and Understanding more effective remote working, advanced e-commerce and remote SHOPPING ENTRETAINMENT TOURISM access to powerful cloud computing HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 5
  6. 6. Changes expected over the next 10-15 years Demographic Technological Education• Global population growth by 2050 • R&D a mainstream focus • A new era in Science and Technology between 8-9 billion • Digital age comes to maturity • Constant innovation drives the need• Aging society, with many baby • Cloud based network, Digital for ongoing learning boomers retiring from workforce economy, M2M, etc. • Life long education through virtual and• Growth of Urban populations • Technical progress drive the interactive methods• Multinational societies development of new industries • Increase in visual learning, becoming• Life influenced by social media • Nanotechnology and Bio-technology fun based enter mainstream • Rise in digital innovators and small • More connected users and devices business start-ups Environmental Societal Global• Alternative sources of power become • Technology becomes embedded in the • Global population growth by 2050 embedded e.g. Solar power, wind, way we live - Tele-health between 8-9 billion, with increasing life stream etc. • Service demand for traditional services expectancy• Sustainable business models drive decrease, while new services emerge • Market turbulence as emerging new business i.e. Digital billing economies fit into world order• Growing resources challenge, • Digital or Cyber security remains a big • Emerging economies dominate global resource management important concern organisations• Changing consumption patterns • Era of greater responsibility and • Increasing global opportunities and accountability competition • Nations compete on Innovation HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 6
  7. 7. Important Industry Trends next 5-15 years Smart GRID, Cities, Metering, Apps, Home etc. Broadband World with Glocal Content Digital Rights Government Protection Deployment of LTE and Small Cell cellular technology Convergence (HW+SW) virtualisation of computing power, storage & Public Participation Services – Semantic web emerges Services Seamless connectivity, with open ducts and poles Access to Internet/Services world goes mobile More phones and devices than people “Internet of Things” 60bln or more by 2025 Sensor based technologies and M2M grow, with Track-able data being a key driver – Video and space aware Inclusive and directive ‘smart’ government Partnerships & Locally governed communities Digital Access Web evolves into a 3D platform (virtual reality) Content Universality Services proliferate based on Telecare, eHealth, eGovernment, eEducation Reform Security Social platforms drive consumer growth and behaviour, things added HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 7
  8. 8. Is this the blueprint ... ... an intelligent network capable of proactively acting on our needs, following us wherever we go ... National / Global Vertical Local Sectors Social networks as Security-AAS Storage-AAS Apps-AAS Internet shop front embedded everywhere IAAS PAAS SAAS SAAS Storage - Routing Hosted solutions Access solutions Artificial intelligence Network based SW personal Internet Transport your ownComputing Virtual personal Personal Portal Education Centralised Apps Energy Health, access layer... Sensors & Probes Data Centres Internet cloud Health Care Central updates Energy, Highly Scalable Cloud environment Management-AAS Utility Computing Banking Smart Cities Community SW E-Gov, Market Driven Access independent Market Niche Multi-tenant Client server based Education ... Education, Multi-tenant (LLU) Health Life Style Data aggregation Etc. Enterprise gradePerformance-AAS Mashups Intelligence-AAS business models New Statistics-AAS SoLoMo WWW integration Open Platform Innovation Standard Interfaces Technology neutral Data Security, Data aggregation Customer centric Sustainable Data encryption, Data insights DAAS Services find you pervasive, Integrators Operators Service Providers Service Providers Services media Context and rich, Location immersive aware and sensory HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 8
  9. 9. Connected Devices trending towards 60 Bln Plus70 White goods (Any)60 Tools (Network connected tools of some shape) Already 20Bln devices Camera/Video Recorder device50 capable of being FBB (Fixed BB connection) connected Medical Aid (Connected medical device)40 Car (Any network connected, either part-time or always on) TV (Dedicated set for recieving30 a video signal) Smart Meter (Electricity, Gas or water device)20 Tablet (iPad or Ultrabook type device) iPod (standalone device)10 These predictions do Cell Phone (All types) not account for desktop PC (either laptop or0 electronic tagging e.g. type) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 RFID HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 9
  10. 10. The traditional Model Evolving the Model Voice & SMS Mobile broadband Ultra Broadband BB Connectivity Digital Economy Bandwidth & Traffic New Revenues New Business B User Generated Content D Social Networking ARPU & Revenue A C C Cost Moderate performance High-Def Devices Emerging 3D - Video Consumer Electronics HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 10
  11. 11. What’s it really about ... What the network needs to be ... Leadership, Innovation and Profitability The ecosystem means “partnership” and “co- context serviceable essential operation” functional consumable perceptive New technologies or enhancements of old are familiar useful understood inclusive needed to solve the Wireless dilemma ... LTE may helpful second-nature universal adaptable experimental efficient just be a part solution accessible handy accustomed functional exploitable convenient Near-field communications, LiFi, advertising, automatic habitual current sensible perceptive playful marketing, and social- and location-based natural usable open consistent beneficial legitimate constructive practical applications immediate profitable ordinary valuable efficient Software tools that provide stakeholders across effective inherent the telco, and even third parties, with better visibility, both into the internal workings of the the most transformative and thrilling period in business and into the wealth of customer data human history ... that is held therein HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 11
  12. 12. Conclusions The world will rely more on Digital Communications Services will be driven by Community needs and Security concerns The growth in data sharing will grow exponentially The BB telecoms sector is at the heart of adding value to society and all the economic sectors Partnering and Virtualization is key to savings and growth ICT can enable a GREENER Digital Economy …. a coordinated plan is needed to realise the maximum benefits across all our industries HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 12 Page 12
  13. 13. THE END Think the unthinkable and unimaginable as the key input to your strategy – Then double these estimates – Be a conduit to helping people help themselves – John FrieslaarHUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential
  14. 14. Thank You www.huawei.comHUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Page 14