Well received webinar focused around our Megatrends research. Access the free recording online at: http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/23001

1. 1
27 October 2010
Looking Through the Crystal Ball:
Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the
World
Chairman’s Series on Growth

2. Today’s Presenters
Moderator:
Dorman Followwill
Partner & Director – EIA
Frost & Sullivan
Sarwant Singh
Partner
Frost & Sullivan
Raquel Daniels
Marketing Manager – EIA
Frost & Sullivan

3. Agenda
• Introduction and Research Methodology
• Presentation of Top 10 Mega Trends
1. Urbanisation: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities
2. E-Mobility
3. Social Trends: Geo Socialisation, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain
4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits
5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare
6. RoboSlaves
7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology
8. Innovating to Zero! : Zero Emission Technologies
9. Emerging Transportation Corridors
10. Health, Wellness and Well-Being
• Overview of Next Top 27 Mega Trends
• Key Strategic Conclusions
• How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies
• Question & Answer Session

4. Definition of a Mega Trend
What is a Mega Trend? Impact of Mega Trends on Key
Organisational Functions
Mega Trends are global, sustained
and macro economic forces of
development that impact business,
economy, society, cultures and
personal lives thereby defining our
future world and its increasing pace
of change

5. S
T
A
G
E
S
Research Methodology
This research follows a four stage process
S1
S3
S2
S4

7. Top 10 Mega Trends

8. Urbanisation

9. Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities,
Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum
Population Of 10
Million
EXAMPLE: Greater
London
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With
Suburbs To Form Regions.
(Population over 10 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg
and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting
Two Major Cities or Mega
Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-
Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120
Million)

10. 1950s Urbanisation
2000s Suburbanisation
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
Megacity Trend
• City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will
enclose multiple downtowns.
• Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public
transportation
• Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city
centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and
living areas for “double income, no kids” households.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highways
created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Ring Road
Motorway,
Living Areas
growing outside
the ring road as
seen in London
By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and
Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan

11. Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts
‘S”
Governance
‘S’ City
Planning
‘S’
Energy
‘S’ Business
‘S’ ICT
‘S’ Mobility
‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
Smart Diamond to define Smart City
Source:Frost&Sullivan
‘S’
Information
Technology

12. Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Treasure Island
Boulder
Arcosanti
Coyote Springs
Destiny
Babcock Ranch
Vancouver
Toronto
San Francisco
Portland
Seattle
Curitiba
Montreal
Bogota
St Davids
Clonburris
Göteborg
Hammarby Sjöstad
London
Barcelona
Reykjavik Oslo
Freiburg
Stockholm
Paris
Copenhagen
Kochi
GIFT
Cape Town
Pune
Dongtan
Tianjin
Changsha
Khajuraho
Meixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z.
Singapore City
Songdo
Moreland, Australia
Amsterdam
Masdar
Legend
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of
Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan

13. Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart Township
Private infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer
smart living and working
• India’s first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.
• This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400
billion
• Dasve – the first town will be ready by end 2010/11.

14. “Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to
Convergence of Competition
IT Players
Automation/Building
Control Players
Energy/Infrastructure
Players
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
• IP Networks
• Digital Technology
• Analysis Software
• Wireless Communication
• Technology Integration
• Network Security
• Etc.
• T&D Technology
• Power Electronics
• Renewable Energy
• Integrated Distribution Management
• Substation Automation
• AMI-Enabled Metering
• Etc.
• Building Automation
• Demand-Side Management
• Connectivity of devices
• Monitoring and Sensing
• Smart Grid Integration
• Etc.

15. E-Mobility

16. E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be
Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
XM 3000 Electric MopedSanyo Enacle The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Total 30 million –
2 Wheelers (2020)
Total 10 Million –
4 Wheelers (2020)

17. Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter
New Fields
Utilities Integrator
(e.g. Better Place)
OEMs
System/Battery
Manufacturers
Government
Charging
Station
Manufacturers

18. Source: Frost & Sullivan
• Charge Payment
Program /
Subscription based
services
• Manufacturing &
Sales
• Load Management
• Extended E-
mobility solution
e.g. vehicle sharing
• Energy
Subscription
Packages
PossibleRevenue
Streams
Charging
Stations
Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity
Telematics &
other Value
Added Services
Services
Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an
Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
• Installation &
Maintenance
• Revenues from
value added
services
• Premium revenues
via Renewable
Energy Vs Non
Renewable Energy
• Premium revenues
via Peak Power Vs
Off Peak Charging
• Level 1 Vs Level 2
Vs Level 3 Charging
• Battery Leasing
Model
• Refurbishing
• Recycling
• Battery 2nd
life
• Battery
Swapping
• Extend to other
E-mobility
solutions
• Battery
Integration
• Offering After-
Sales services –
• Market green
solutions such as
Solar panels to E-
Mobility client base
• Investment in
renewable energy
such as wind farms
and gain carbon
credits
• Recycling and
Refurbishing
• Premium revenues
via Peak Power Vs
Off Peak Charging
• Premium revenues
via Renewable
Energy Vs Non
Renewable Energy
• Subscription
based Energy
service Scheme
• Data Aggregator (
working with other
partners)
• Battery
management
services
• Advanced booking
of charging stations
• V2V and V2G
Communication
• Added Value
Service (POIs,
Diagnostics, etc)

19. Social Trends

21. 1.69
2.56
2.1
1.2
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Note: Gen Y: Population between 15 – 34
Years today
2010 2020World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 Billion
Around 37% of Gen Y
Population Will Live in
India and China Alone
Around 37% of Gen Y
Population Will Live in
India and China Alone
World Population in 2020: 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34
(Currently Gen Y) – Important Customer of the Future

22. Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020
Used For:
Meet Ups, Restaurant and
Nightclub Reviews,
Concert Events
Used For:
Networking in Business
Conferences: Updates on
Potential Contacts
Used For:
Local Real Estate News,
Geo Socialising with
Friends
Used For:
Digital Marketing:
Receiving Updates on
Promotion and Offers

23. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest
and Lifestyle
Personalisation
and
Individualisation
Techno Savvy
and Connected
24 X 7
Civic and
Environmentally
Friendly
Demanding and
Impatient – “Fast
and the Furious”
Personalised Search and
News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalised Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags
Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented
Gaming (Car Racing)

24. Reverse Brain Drain and Huge Shortage of CXO Positions In BRIC
Nations Will Make Us Look For Opportunities Overseas
Russia
India
S. Africa
Brazil
UAE
United States
Canada
United
Kingdom
Australia
Malaysia
Japan
IMPACT
• Steady flow of foreign professionals and migrants returning back home to fill vacancies for CXO positions
• Salary on par with developed countries (in terms of purchasing power) and even more benefits
• 2 million BPO- KPO jobs for foreign nationals from China, Poland, Philippines,
High Low
Degree of NRIs and Overseas Chinese
returning to Homeland (Reverse Brain Drain)
High Low
Degree of Indians and Chinese
living abroad

25. Technology

26. New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched
Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
GNSS Enabled Applications:
• Navigation (Civil, Military)
• Broadband Internet and
Wireless Network
• GNSS based medical
monitoring and drug delivery
system
• Automated guidance of
machines, real-time structure
monitoring, logistics and site
management
GNSS Enabled Applications:
• Navigation (Civil, Military)
• Broadband Internet and
Wireless Network
• GNSS based medical
monitoring and drug delivery
system
• Automated guidance of
machines, real-time structure
monitoring, logistics and site
management
By 2020, there will be
approximately 927 Satellites
(Communication – 405; Earth
Observation – 151; Navigation
– 85; Reconnaissance – 212
and R&D 75)
By 2020, there will be
approximately 927 Satellites
(Communication – 405; Earth
Observation – 151; Navigation
– 85; Reconnaissance – 212
and R&D 75)
Automobile Navigation and
Intelligent Traffic Control System
Applications
Automobile Navigation and
Intelligent Traffic Control System
Applications
Galileo - intended to
provide more precise
measurements than GPS
or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Galileo - intended to
provide more precise
measurements than GPS
or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Commercial market will be
driven by broadcast; Mobile
Satellite Services (MSS); voice
and data applications,
bundling IPTV
Commercial market will be
driven by broadcast; Mobile
Satellite Services (MSS); voice
and data applications,
bundling IPTV

27. World War 3: With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare
to be the Next Domain of Conflict
Space
Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile
Defence, Signals, Astronauts
Air
ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime
Surveillance, Communications, Airmen
Naval
Combat Platforms,
Communications, ISR,
Transport, Sailors
Land
Combat Vehicles, Transport,
Communications, Soldiers
Information Environment
Physical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions

28. Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will
“Act as a Slave” in Everyday Life
Robots To Help
With Strategic
Planning and
Business
Robots for
Companionship
Robots as Pets Robots for
Household
Chores
Robots to Wait
on Hand and
Foot
Robots as
Waiters
Robots as
Nannies

29. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With
Multiple Applications
Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020
Welding
Material
Handling
Drilling Robots in Space
Medical Robots Performing
Low Invasive Surgery
Transportation Robots Military RobotsPackaging

30. Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and
Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to TryVirtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try
Products without leaving their homesProducts without leaving their homes
Virtual Classes and LaboratoriesVirtual Classes and Laboratories
and Daily 3D Field Tripsand Daily 3D Field Trips
to Different Countries and Planetsto Different Countries and Planets
Virtual SurgeriesVirtual Surgeries
and Medical Trainingand Medical Training Virtual Business ConferencesVirtual Business Conferences
Social Networking: 3D AvatarsSocial Networking: 3D Avatars
Enabling People to LeadEnabling People to Lead
Multiple LivesMultiple Lives

31. Innovating to Zero!

32. “Innovating To ZERO”: Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents,
Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Accidents
Zero
Breaches of
Security
Zero
Crime
Rates
Zero Waste/
Emissions
from Factories
Complete
Recyclability from
Households
(Cradle to Cradle
Concept)
Zero
Defects
Zero
Debts

33. Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation -
Innovating Toward Reducing CO2 Emissions in 2020
Solar PV Cells
Wind Energy
Travelling Wave
Reactor (TWR)
Third Generation Bio Fuels
(Algae and Exotic Bio Fuels)
Geothermal Energy
Ocean Energy
To Account for
1,900,000 MW of
electricity production
in 2020
Capacity of Solar
Power to Increase from
21,540 MW in 2020 to
630,000 MW in 2040
Wide deployment of TWRs could
enable projected global stockpiles
of depleted uranium to sustain
80% of the world’s population at
U.S. per capita energy usages for
over a millennium
Share of Geothermal
Electricity in total
electricity produced in
2020 is 1.5%
“INNOVATING
TO
ZERO!”
By 2022, algae biofuels will be the
largest biofuel category overall,
accounting for 40 billion of the
estimated 109 billion gallons of
biofuels produced.
To supply approximately 10
percent of the world's
electricity needs by 2020

34. Infrastructure Development

35. Moscow
Nizhny
Novgorod
St. Petersburg
Yekaterinburg
Novosibirsk Krasnoyarsk
Irkutsk
Khabarovsk
Vladivostok
Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will
Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Yekaterinburg
Severka
Development of Trans-Siberian railroad
will have significant socio economic
and business impact to Russia
●Astrakhan
Kiev
●
Kaliningrad
Minsk
●Helsinki
●
Berezoviy
Verhnya
Pyshma
KoltsovoShyrokaya
Rechka
●
ITC North South
Trans-Siberian Railway
Pan European N 2
Pan European N 9
Baikal-Amur Mainline
(Warsaw, Berlin)
(Bucharest,
Aleksandrupolis)
Sredneuralsk

36. High Speed Rail to Come to US: Overview of Future High Speed Rail
Projects in US
California to connect Bay
Area with LA through an
ambitious $42bn program
with construction starting
in 2 years
Impact to Personal
Mobility
1. Air travel will diminish
rapidly between the high
speed rail link cities
2. Train operators could
start offering integrated
transport e.g. Car sharing
3. Will take congestion off
highways, people will drive
less long distance
4. Attractive cities for car
sharing
5. Small city car sales will
grow in these cities

37. Healthcare

38. In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income
No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must
eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income
If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double
Claiming 20% – 30% of GDP for Some Economies
$2,884
$3,647
$2,493 $2,665 $2,451
$2,693
$2,337 $2,527
$2,110
$2,614
$1,927
$2,469 $2,371
$1,938 $1,927 $1,829 $1,609
$3,517
$717
$1,684
$854
$914
$680
$989 $760
$1,018
$494
$1,165
$449
$352
$593 $431 $514
$646
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007)
Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050
UnsustainableUnsustainable
Levels!!!Levels!!!

39. Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending – Away From Treating and
Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
Predict, 5% Predict, 9%
Predict, 22%Diagnose, 15%
Diagnose, 19%
Diagnose, 27%
Treat, 70%
Treat, 60%
Treat, 35%
Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% Monitor, 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2012 2025

40. Overview of Next Top Mega Trends
Women
Empowerment
and Women
CEOs
Women
Empowerment
and Women
CEOs
Power to
the Middle
Class
Power to
the Middle
Class
Reverse
Brain Drain
and CXO
Positions in
Developing
Economies
Reverse
Brain Drain
and CXO
Positions in
Developing
Economies
Beyond
BRIC: The
Next Game
Changers
Beyond
BRIC: The
Next Game
Changers
New Shores:
Emerging
Outsourcing
Hotspots
New Shores:
Emerging
Outsourcing
Hotspots
Future
Global 500
Companies
by Region
Future
Global 500
Companies
by Region
New Trade
Zones
New Trade
Zones
SMART
Clouds: The
Next in Cloud
Computing
SMART
Clouds: The
Next in Cloud
Computing
Future of
Consumer
Electronics
Future of
Consumer
Electronics

41. Overview of Next Top Mega Trends (Contd...)
Wireless
Intelligence
Wireless
Intelligence
Future
Broadband
Applications
Future
Broadband
Applications
Innovative
Technologies
of the
Future
Innovative
Technologies
of the
Future
Future of
Global
Power
Generation
Future of
Global
Power
Generation
Future
Investment in
Infrastructure :
Power, Water
and Transport
Future
Investment in
Infrastructure :
Power, Water
and Transport
New
Business
Models
New
Business
Models
From Fat
to Fit: Health,
Wellness and
Well Being
From Fat
to Fit: Health,
Wellness and
Well Being
Factory of the
Future:
SMART
and GREEN
Factory of the
Future:
SMART
and GREEN
HealthcareHealthcare

42. Overview of Industry Specific Top Mega Trends
ChemicalsChemicals
Energy and
Power
Energy and
Power
EnvironmentEnvironment
AutomotiveAutomotive
Aerospace
and
Defence
Aerospace
and
Defence
Information and
Communication
Technologies
Information and
Communication
Technologies
Building
Technologies
Building
Technologies
Measurement
and
Instrumentation
Measurement
and
Instrumentation
Electronics and
Security
Electronics and
Security

43. Key Strategic Conclusions

44. Key Strategic Conclusions
1. Mega Trends are connected and intertwined which suggests “synergetic”
opportunities between them
2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of
the value chain which have most profitability
3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable
opportunities
4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half
the life-cycle speed of the past decade
5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation
structure to best exploit the opportunities
6. It is important to build a healthy eco-system around your opportunity related to a
mega trend as it can be a source of competitive advantage and raise barriers to
entry (e.g. App store advantage vs Google)

45. From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to
Strategy Implementation
Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that
Has Wide Ranging Impact
Mega Trend
Selected Trends That
Impact Your Business
And Markets
Analysis of
Opportunities
and Unmet
Needs
Impact on
Future Product/
Technology
Impact to Your
Industry
Visualising The Roadmap Of
These Critical Forces Through
Scenario Building and Macro
Economic Forecasts
Example: Urbanisation,
Satellites
Example: Three concepts of
urbanisation will emerge:
megacities, mega regions and
mega corridors. Smart Cities.
Civilian satellites means high
speed broadband, wireless and 4G
and free wi-fi in public places/cities
Example: New Product
Opportunity - New Mega City
Cars, Car sharing,
New Technology Opportunities –
Connected car , e.g. Internet
Radio
Example: Mega City
electric cars with small
turning radius,
autonomous parking in
busy cities, Facebook on
wheels, seamless
switching from home to
car
Example: People in future will need
“personal mobility” not necessarily cars to
commute to work. This will lead to need for
integrated mobility combining all forms of
transport including cars
Macro Micro

46. Questions & Answers

47. Tell Us What You Think:
Contact Us
• If you have questions or would like further information about anything we discussed,
email us on growthteam@frost.com
Dorman Followwill
Partner and Director EIA
+ 44 1865 398620
dorman.followwill@frost.com
Sarwant Singh
Partner & Practice Director,
Automotive & Transportation
+ 44 207 915 7843
sarwant.singh@frost.com