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10 Global Megatrends that are (re) shaping the world

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Since 2015, every year we revisit and update the megatrends that shape our world. Here's the latest from 2019.

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10 Global Megatrends that are (re) shaping the world

  1. 1. 1 Mega trends …that are (re) shaping the world UPDATED JANUARY 2019 VERSION
  2. 2. Changing our behaviour? Ageing people? Necessity not choice? New illnesses, tired planet? The left behind? Work-life balance in the age of automation? Will we enjoy the ride? More tension? Where are we heading? How safe will we feel? A quick introduction…
  3. 3. 1. Dynamic Populations
  4. 4. 210011,184,368,000 2050 9,771,823,000 20197,714,576,923 1978 4,304,377,112 The world population continues to grow…
  5. 5. Powered by high fertility rates in some countries 7.2 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 Niger Somalia Mali Burundi Uganda Burkina Faso Zambia Malawi South Africa India Turkey France Australia United States United Kingdom Russia UAE Brazil China Canada Germany Japan
  6. 6. And despite looming declines in others 2016 1970 2.1 women per child= “Replacement fertility”
  7. 7. And a sharp rise in the use of contraception across the developing world 15,576,000 9,333,000 5,081,000 4,570,000 2,165,000 1,336,000 482,000 362,000 South Asia Eastern and Southern Africa Southeast Asia and Oceania Western Africa Middle East and North Africa Central Africa Latin America and Caribbean Eastern and Central Asia Additional adult users of modern contraception methods since 2012
  8. 8. 0 100 200 300 400 500 1950 2015 2025 2050 The rise of Africa: Case Study - Nigeria MILLION Estimated population from 2010 to 2050 in U.S., Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Nigeria U.S. Nigeria Indonesia Japan Philippines
  9. 9. 60 55 14 13 10 7 16 25Americas Europe Africa Asia/Oceania Proportion of world population: 2015 2050 India 2015: 1.31bn 2050: 1.70bn China 2015: 1.38bn 2050: 1.35bn Indonesia 2015: 257M 2050: 322M Japan 2015: 126M 2050: 107M Growth in Africa
  10. 10. But the global population is getting older 30 19 29 38 42 33 40 25 41 42 47 37 Asia Africa Latin America North America Europe Oceania Median age (years), Estimates for 2015 and 2050 2015 2050
  11. 11. 66 69 68 40 51 58 82 81 79 76 76 72 France United Kingdom United States China Brazil Russia Life expectancy at birth, both genders 1950 2016 As many developing countries close the life expectancy gap
  12. 12. In 1950, life expectancy in China was 40 years. By 2050, this will have risen to 80 years.
  13. 13. 2. Growing Opportunity and Growing Inequality
  14. 14. 2015 7.3 billion 3.0 billion 2020 7.8 billion 3.8 billion 2030 8.6 billion 5.4 billion Global population and global middle class population
  15. 15. By 2030, 65% of the world’s middle classes will be living in the APAC zone
  16. 16. There are more people living inside this circle than outside of it ...which should be no surprise to anyone!
  17. 17. And the Asian Middle Class will be increasingly affluent
  18. 18. East Asia & the Pacific 9682 Latin America & the Caribbean 9485 Arab States 7454 Southern Asia 7145 Sub-Saharan Africa 6452 World 8675 Objective (nearly) achieved? Adult Literacy rates 1990-2016
  19. 19. M illio n s 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 10 0 0 1815 18 35 18 55 1875 18 9 5 1915 193 5 19 5 5 1975 19 9 5 20 07 Primary school students Secondary school students University students Driven by strongly rising student numbers Worldwide student numbers, 1815 - 2005
  20. 20. The last 20 years: tertiary education has doubled its enrollment rate 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Global School Enrollment Rates Primary Education Secondary Education Tertiary Education
  21. 21. 50% Internet usage: the point where the web starts to have a real impact on economic development
  22. 22. 52% of the global population has no internet access
  23. 23. But big changes are happening quickly By strata 75 82 73 77 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Russia 100-999k 1mln+ Moscow + StP 70% Total Russia, 16+, cities 100k+75 90 55 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 18-45 y.o. 45+ Total Russia By age Russia: accessed Internet in the past week, %
  24. 24. 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 Internet Users (2016) Non-Users (internetless)
  25. 25. Germany 7287 United Kingdom 7288 France 6287 Brazil 5470 Turkey 6976 Nigeria 3242 China 6871 United States 7789 In some developing countries, smartphone usage is closer to overall internet usage than in developed countries
  26. 26. 3. Megacities
  27. 27. % of the World’s population living in urban areas 30 47 56 68 1950 2000 2019 2050
  28. 28. The rise of the Mega Cities Lima Bogotá Johannesburg Luanda Kinshasa Lagos Chengdu New megacities by 2030 Ahmedabad Ho Chi Minh City Bangkok Lahore Hyderabad Bangalore Chennai Existing megacities (>10 million)
  29. 29. % of the population living in large urban areas: 83 % Japan 105 million city dwellers 82 % United States 265 million city dwellers 66 % Western Europe 275 million city dwellers
  30. 30. 50,000a day The urban population is increasing by...
  31. 31. 1.5 million a month (a city the size of Prague)
  32. 32. 18 million a year (the population of Chile)
  33. 33. 34m 25m 24.9m 23.3m 19m 18.1m 17m 15.4m 13.4m 12.9m 12.4m 12m 11.7m 11m 10.5m Shanghai Guangzhou Beijing Shenzen Wuhan Chengdu Chongqing Tianjin Hangzhou Xi'an Changzhou Shantou Nanjing Jinan Harbin The OECD says there are currently 15 megacities in China 260 million live in these 15 cities – the population of Indonesia
  34. 34. Shanghai 1990 – population 13 million Shanghai 2010 – population 23 million
  35. 35. Shenzhen 1999 – population 6.5 million Shenzhen 2016 – population 23.3 million
  36. 36. More than 100 Chinese cities now above 1 million people
  37. 37. 5%:the blue area is home to as many people as the red area……
  38. 38. The cities where exercise does more harm than good City Country Minutes cycling before harm from exercise outweighs good Shijiazhuang China 60 Delhi India 60 Ludhiana India 60 Dammam Saudi Arabia 60 Kanpur India 60 Baoding China 60 Xingtai China 60 Riyadh Saudi Arabia 45 Patna India 45 Raipur India 45 Bamenda Cameroon 45 Al Jubail Saudi Arabia 45 Gwalior India 30 Zabol Iran 30 Allahabad India 30 City living: growing pains
  39. 39. Africa Cairo 19 million in 2015  29 million in 2035 Kinshasa 12 million in 2015 27 million in 2035 Lagos 12 million in 2015  24 million in 2035 Will gradually replace Asia as the region with highest urban growth rate
  40. 40. But the age of fast urban growth is coming to an end Northeast AsiaWestern Europe Australasia China LATAM 5968 Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East/ North Africa United States and Canada 2.2 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.4 3.1 1.0 - 0.1 2.8 1.4 1.1 1950-70 2010-15 2025-35 4.1 3.0 0.8 4.4 1.5 0.9 4.9 2.4 1.5 5.1 4.0 3.4 Urban population growth in… Compound annual growth rate
  41. 41. City Living A choice rather than a necessity?
  42. 42. Tokyo29 17 16 13 12 10 10 9 9 9 37 30 27 22 22 21 21 20 20 19 1980 2020 Tokyo Sao Paulo Mumbai Rio de Janeiro Mexico City Sao Paulo Cairo Delhi Shanghai Beijing Dhaka Tokyo New York City Mexico City Osaka-Kobe Sao Paulo Los Angeles Buenos Aires Calcutta Mumbai Osaka-Kobe
  43. 43. 4. Increasing connectedness and decreasing privacy
  44. 44. Digital/ terrestrial TV Mobile phone ads Mobile phone aps Social networking profiles In game advertising PR Online video Homepage takeovers Search ads Direct marketing Micro blogging Satellite TV Online radio Digital radio Press Direct marketing Email marketing Sponsorship Analogue radio Augmented reality Viral video Direct mail Digital Billboards Posters Online banners Cinema Direct marketing Microsites Now Direct marketing TV/ Cinema RadioPress Posters/ Billboards 1980s
  45. 45. Growth in smartphone subscriptions is expected to near-double between 2015 and 2021 80% of this growth will come from Asia and Africa
  46. 46. LTE became the dominant mobile access technology at the end of 2017
  47. 47. Commercial LTE service is now available in most countries
  48. 48. But technological inequalities remain significant
  49. 49. 52% of the global population has no internet access
  50. 50. 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 Internet Users (2016) Non-Users (internetless) Keep the “internet-less” world in mind
  51. 51. 83% of global internet users say access to the web should be a “basic human right”
  52. 52. “The level of interrupt, the sort of overwhelming rapidity of information… is in fact affecting cognition” Eric Schmidt - Google ‘Facebook Home could change our brains’ Susan Greenfield - Neuroscientist In China say they are ‘constantly looking at screens these days’ And is it changing our behaviour? 78%
  53. 53. “The level of interrupt, the sort of overwhelming rapidity of information… is in fact affecting cognition” Eric Schmidt - Google ‘Facebook Home could change our brains’ Susan Greenfield - Neuroscientist Of Chinese under 30s feel “restless or uneasy” if they don’t look at their phone for an hour And is it changing our behaviour? 79%
  54. 54. 5. Healthier and sicker
  55. 55. 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Global life expectancy is rising… 2019 1975 2100 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
  56. 56. Our new world: longer lifespans and chronic diseases 23% 17% 9% 9% 68% 74% 2015 2030 WHO Projected causes of mortality worldwide Infectious disease Injuries Non-infectious disease
  57. 57. 92% now have access to improved drinking water
  58. 58. 2,000 child deaths from diarrhoea in 2000 <1,000 today
  59. 59. 1 in 3 of the World’s population still do not have access to adequate sanitation facilities But…
  60. 60. Uncertainty #1 Can our healthcare systems cope?
  61. 61. Health spending remains very unequally distributed
  62. 62. But is growing faster than GDP in most countries
  63. 63. Governments generally carry a huge share of the financial burden
  64. 64. Which might not be sustainable in the long run
  65. 65. Uncertainty #2 Our own lifestyle choices
  66. 66. Most of the world's population now lives in countries where being overweight or obese kills more people than being underweight
  67. 67. 55% 54% 49% 46% 45% 44% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 41% 40% 40% 40% 39% 38% 38% 36% 32% 18% 20% 52% 57% 53% 65% 55% 50% 57% 66% 49% 57% 38% 54% 62% 56% 62% 52% 56% 28% 23% 32% India Sweden Poland Belgium Turkey S Africa Italy Russia US France Germany Total Spain GB Canada Australia Argentina Brazil China Japan S Korea And across many countries people understate the issue or do not see a problem Proportion “satisfied” with their weight Proportion of population overweight or obese (BMI>25) in 2013
  68. 68. Example: In Turkey people think 32% of country is “overweight or obese”
  69. 69. Turkey 32% 62% are overweight or obese
  70. 70. Uncertainty #3 Climate change
  71. 71. Global warming has an increasingly tangible impact
  72. 72. And most countries have made commitments to curb it Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The climate actions communicated in these INDCs largely determine whether the world achieves the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement: to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C, to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, and to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this century
  73. 73. 6. Rise of individual choice and fracturing of the mass market
  74. 74. 2019 1976 Endless opportunities to personalise…
  75. 75. Global brands’ geography is changing
  76. 76. The mass market: what we are used to is changing
  77. 77. The mass market: what we are used to is changing Example #1: Motoring
  78. 78. Chinese demand for EVs is soaring
  79. 79. In Europe government incentives have a significant impact on drivers’ choices
  80. 80. The mass market: what we are used to is changing Example #2: Business models
  81. 81. A slide seen in business strategy presentations around the world...
  82. 82. Disruption in Business
  83. 83. 7. Rise of the individual and decline of social cohesion
  84. 84. The “traditional” family structures are changing
  85. 85. 1970 No of marriages per 1,000 population (OECD Countries) 8 2015 5 Marriage is less and less popular...
  86. 86. And unmarried people cannot divorce…
  87. 87. Single person households are the fastest-growing household profile in the period to 2030
  88. 88. Single-person Households: the fastest growing household profile in the period to 2030
  89. 89. % Single-Person Households by Region Asia Middle East & Africa Latin America Australasia Eastern Europe North America Western Europe 9 11 11 24 27 28 31
  90. 90. 29% of all households 162 million The projected number of single person households in China in 2050
  91. 91. Cause for optimism? societies are not breaking down
  92. 92. “Crime against the person and against property is falling in most rich countries” The Economist
  93. 93. Drug possession Drug Trafficking Homicide Burglary Vehicle theft Robbery Rape High income countries Middle income countries Lower income countries % change in different types of crime, 2003- 2013 +50% -50% But crime is RISING in developing markets ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  94. 94. 8. Cultural convergence and increasing extremes
  95. 95. Most native speakers Chinese Hindi-Urdu English Spanish 1.4b 588m 527m Arabic 389m276m Global languages
  96. 96. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Grease Superman Jaws 2 Animal House Kita-kitsune monogatari Every Which Way But Loose Heaven Can Wait Hooper Halloween California Suite Avengers: Infinity War Black Panther Incredibles 2 Deadpool 2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Ready Player One Detective Chinatown 2 Rampage Hong hai xing dong Pacific Rim: Uprising English language continues to dominate 1978 & 2018
  97. 97. Views on gender are becoming more balanced worldwide % Agree “Men should get hiring priority over Women”: 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 1970 1983 1991 1996 2001 2007 2012 G8 BRICS
  98. 98. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Agree very much/somewhat that women should not aspire to do anything outside of the household and should produce children and tend to their family Women Men But major cultural (?) differences remain
  99. 99. 43 77 57 65 67 50 55 61 40 54 53 53 30 47 32 40 28 43 31 50 32 24 22 13 12 28 10 30 21 17 34 28 21 39 22 24 21 45 24 36 28 38 23 32 13 28 34 35 36 37 71 87 87 86 84 84 83 82 80 77 77 75 75 71 68 68 66 66 63 63 60 58 57 50 49 Total Sweden Belgium France Hungary Germany Spain Great Britain South Korea Australia Canada Serbia Poland Italy India the US Argentina Russia China Turkey Japan South Africa Mexico Brazil Peru Abortion should be permitted whenever a woman decides she wants one Abortion should be permitted in certain circumstances, such as if a woman has been raped 2014 2015 2016 69 72 74 91 87 93 85 85 90 90 88 90 79 77 83 85 83 84 88 86 86 85 84 86 74 77 80 77 75 77 76 74 79 - - - 65 71 73 73 74 74 61 63 70 64 68 69 64 65 66 59 65 62 63 66 56 71 68 72 67 67 65 59 56 71 51 49 58 53 52 57 - - 53 ABORTION SHOULD BE PERMITTED An overwhelming majority (71%) of global respondents say that abortion should be permitted whenever a woman decides to have one (43%), or in special circumstances (28%). A longstanding divide within the progressive Western Hemisphere: Abortion
  100. 100. An even wider progressive divide: In favour of gay marriage: Industrialized Countries 68% Latam 52% 13%Other developing countries
  101. 101. But an accelerating growth since 2000 of the number of countries where gay marriage is legal in at least some jurisdictions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10% of the global population now live under a jurisdiction which allows same-sex marriage
  102. 102. 9. Always on versus off the grid
  103. 103. Hours worked per year 2000 2017 1,845 1,759 In OECD countries, people are starting to work fewer hours
  104. 104. ? Maybe we will have more free time on our hands than we expect...
  105. 105. Robot Density Rises Globally
  106. 106. “As technology races ahead it’s leaving some people behind. They want to work, to offer their labor to the economy, but their capacity as workers doesn’t match the new environment. Technological progress is certainly not the only factor affecting jobs and wages - others include globalization and demographics – but we continue to believe that it’s a major one ” Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee, New Introduction to The Second Machine Age, 2015
  107. 107. 50% of current work activities are technically automatable by adapting currently demonstrated technologies
  108. 108. Globally, up to 375 million workers may need to switch occupational categories
  109. 109. The change in employment by education required will still differ according to levels of economic development and the global division of labor. Blue collar workers in advanced economies have more to fear…
  110. 110. “Adult learning is a crucial policy instrument for the re- training and up-skilling of workers whose jobs are being affected by technology.” Ljubica Nedelkoska, Glenda Quintini, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 202 - Automation, skills use and training - 2018
  111. 111. 10. Emergence of public opinion as revolutionary force
  112. 112. Disruption Today: my country is “off on the wrong track”
  113. 113. “The rapid growth of the precariat is producing instabilities in society. It is a dangerous class because it is internally divided, leading to the villainisation of migrants and other vulnerable groups. And its members may be susceptible to the siren calls of political extremism”
  114. 114. The rise of democracy makes political discontent and populism more vocal and audible
  115. 115. But just over one half of world population lives under a democratic regime
  116. 116. Colombia South Africa Peru Brazil Argentina Chile Malaysia Turkey Mexico Thailand India Romania Spain Canada Italy Belgium Russia France Germany China United States Netherlands Poland Sweden Serbia Australia Japan South Korea Great Britain Hungary Denmark New Zealand Montenegro Switzerland Hong Kong Singapore Saudi Arabia Country Avg. guess (28) Actual (12) 34 0.3 38 7 30 0.3 30 0.4 33 5 31 3 36 9 32 6 26 1 29 5 24 0.4 23 1 31 10 40 21 28 10 29 11 25 8 27 12 30 15 14 0.1 29 15 26 12 16 2 30 18 21 9 41 29 14 2 14 2 24 13 15 5 22 12 32 23 18 11 35 30 37 39 41 46 27 37 34 31 30 30 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 18 17 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 -2 -5 -10 too hightoo low % point diff. between avg. guess & actual Populism thrives on an almost general overestimation of the proportion of immigrants in the local population
  117. 117. 1 Mega trends …that are (re) shaping the world
  118. 118. Changing our behaviour? Ageing people? Necessity not choice? New illnesses, tired planet? The left behind? Work-life balance in the age of automation? Will we enjoy the ride? More tension? Where are we heading? How safe will we feel?

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