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Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.




VisionMobile Research

Mobile Megatrends 2009
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.




              Mobile Megatrends 2009

                                                              Andreas Constantinou, Ph.D.
                                                                       Research Director,
                                                                            VisionMobile
                                                                                   twitter: @andreascon


Last updated: 2 June 2009                            licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license.
Mobile Megatrends
Eight Centres of Gravity: the New Rules of Mobile.
Market Gravity: The Rise and Fall of Market Value. The
Software Industry is Consolidating. Mapping Business
Model Innovation: Value Quadrants. Open is the New
Closed. The Mobile Application Store Phenomenon.
NaaS: Network as a Service. Mobile Service Analytics:
the Most Underhyped Opportunity.
VisionMobile

Research Reports
                                                               selected analyst reports

   On-Device Portals:   The New Age of        MDM Case Study:              Five Defining Traits
   Beyond WAP           Handset               Motorola                     of Open Source
   (ARCchart)           Customisation:        (Ovum)                       (Informa)
                        2006-2011
                        (ARCchart)




   High-Capacity SIMs   Mobile Operating      Firmware OTA:                GPLv2 vs GPLv3
   (Informa)            Systems: The New      From Hype to                 White Paper
                        Generation            Market Reality
                                              (ARCchart)




   Mobile Software      Activating the Idle   Open Source in                            Mobile
   Management           Screen: Uncharted     Mobile: 2007-2012                         Megatrends
   Report               Territory             (Informa)                                 2008
                        (Informa)
VisionMobile

Market-How Maps
Mobile Industry Atlas                       The 100 million club
:a visual map of who's who in the mobile    : the watchlist of software companies whose
handset industry, showcasing 800+ leading   products have been embedded on more than
companies across 47 market sectors.         100 million cellular handsets
VisionMobile

Advisory services




selected clients
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.




Mobile Megatrends 2009
1   Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power
1   Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power
    The industry is moving again into a vertically integrated structure
    From the vertically integrated devices 20 years ago, to the horizontal enabler era of ODMs and OSes,
    and again into a vertical integration of hardware + software + services with Nokia, Google et al




    start
1   Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power

    Google, LiMo, Nokia, Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Intel
    are building vertically integrated solutions and related ecosystems

    in effect: Centres of Gravity
                                                                          ecosystem players




                                                                          vertical solution
1   Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power

    Starting from software or hardware, and building upwards




    ..




    ..the value wars are moving up the stack!
1   Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power
1   Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power

    Outlook:
    -  RIM aggressively moving into forming a centre of gravity
    -  LiMo’s future is uncertain: LiMo-compliance only applies
    to circa 1% of the software stack
    -  How succesful will be Adobe’s transition of Flash Lite into Flash 10
    through the Open Screen Project?
    -  Can Sony Ericsson elevate Capuchin from a toolkit to a platform?
    -  Will Nokia divorce its Internet and manufacturing personae?
    - Plus: networks are now moving into horizontal structure; via
    outsourced IT operations, outsourced customer operations (see
    MVNO) and outsourced sub-brands (see Blyk, Out There Media)
2   Market gravity: the rise and fall of market value
2   Market gravity: the rise and fall of market value

Every market sector follows a downwards path;
As if pulled by a gravity, it goes through 3 stages:




                                                         novelty
                                                                                                       network
                                                                                                      as a service

- Novelty: the point when a novel product




                                                                                       spectrum
                                                                                       scarcity
is introduced, but demand is scarce.
                                                                           market
                                                                           formation
- Differentiation: market is formed and
                                                                                            voice         ring-back




                                                         differentiation
products become a point of differentiation                                                 services         tones


-  Utility: when the products in the market




                                                                                        MVNOs
have limited sale value, but have become essential
commodities.                                                                                               ringtones
                                                                                           location
                                                                                           services
Gravity accelerators/decelerators
                                                                           value




                                                                                                           sideloading
For every market there are factors or events causing




                                                                                       Latitude
                                                                           line




                                                                                       Google




                                                                                                           iTunes`
                                                         utility


its gravity to accelerate or decelerate (e.g. see what
Google Latitude has done for MNO location services)
2              Market gravity: the rise and fall of market value
                                  Device technologies                                                            Network services
novelty




                                                                                                                            network
                                                                                                                           as a service
                                  mobile                         haptics




                                                                                                            spectrum
                                  service




                                                                                                            scarcity
                                 analytics
                  market                           mobile
                  formation                      application
                                                                                                                                              billing
                                                   stores                                      widgets
                                                                                                                 voice         ring-back      access
differentiation




                                                                             touch-                             services         tones
                                                                             screens
                                                               synchroni-




                                                                                                             MVNOs
                           application                           sation


                                                                                      iPhone
                          environments
                                                  Active
                                                   Idle                                        multimedia                                      photo
                                                  Screen
                              Flash




                                                                                                codecs                          ringtones     sharing
                              Lite




                                                                          Java                                  location
                                                                         virtual                                services
                                                                        machines
                  value




                                                                                                                                sideloading
                                      browsers             core                         on-device




                                                                                                            Latitude
                  line



                                                                                                            Google




                                                                                                                                iTunes`
                                                                             Dalvik




                                                                                         portals
utility




                                                        operating
                                                         systems
                                      WebKit




                                                                Linux
3   The software industry is consolidating
3   The software industry is consolidating

    Operating systems for smartphones are now reduced to two choices:
    (smartphone OSes are strategically important to OEMs due to high margins of smartphones)



    1. S60: now with low cost of ownership and UIQ, MOAP out of the way
    Pros: Backed by Nokia, SEMC, Samsung, LG, but not Motorola. Mature and operator compliant
    Cons: Nokia’s dominance of package ownership and lack of UI differentiation may alienate OEMs



    2. Android: advanced architecture, but not catering to OEM needs
    Pros: Backed by HTC, SEMC, Samsung, LG, Huawei. Dell, Garmin, Fujitsu, China Mobile, Vodafone, O2.
    Pros: designed from the ground up for 3rd party developers; fastest in developing and debugging apps
    Cons: not designed for 2nd parties (OEM partners); variant creation is very resource intensive
    Cons: software is not pre-integrated with telephony stack and needs Google engineering resource;
    Our prediction: 5 Android devices will launch within 2009.
3   The software industry is consolidating
    ..while other smartphone OSes have been sidelined:

    Linux is no longer the panacea it was considered to be in 2006
    - Android’s flexibility and short time-to-market has pre-empted Linux’s openness
    -  ALP, Azingo are still in development, with phones expected in early 2010.
    -  LiMo has been a diversion for ALP, Azingo and Myriad (Purple Labs), diverting focus away from
    product development, into operator customisations and business development.
    -  The discontinuation of Motorola’s L-J and the decline in the Japan smartphone market has meant
    lower volumes from key Linux champions
    -  Linux is now meaningful only as an OS-supporting base

    Windows Mobile has niched itself into a corner
    -  OEMs use Windows Mobile for enterprise phones or tactical wins (e.g. HTC X1)
    -  ODMs do not have the money or expertise to invest in consumer-oriented industrial designs
    -  The first consumer-oriented version of the OS, Windows Mobile 7, has been delayed to 2010

    RIM’s Java platform and OSX growing strong but not licensable
3   The software industry is consolidating

    Mobile Linux landscape: from 10 vendors in 2007 to 5 in 2009
    - Linux for mid-end: Myriad (ex Purple Labs)
    now including Openwave client business and the Sagem software business

    -  Linux for smartphones: Azingo and Access Linux Platform
    two acquisitions later, ALP is suffering from permanent beta status - since PalmOS 6 in 2004

    -  Linux for MIDs: Moblin (now with OpenedHand) and Ubuntu Mobile
    Missing in action: MontaVista, A la Mobile, OpenMoko (no consumer devices).

    - Plus   system integrators: WindRiver (now with Mizi know-how), Teleca, Movial


    But Linux market share is in decline
    Linux only 5.1% of the smartphone market in 3Q08, compared to 6% in 2006 (data: Canalys)
3
The software industry is consolidating

Four application environments set to dominate:

- WebKit: de facto standard for web content and service delivery
to hit 100m shipments by 2H09 due to its integration with S40, S60, OSX and Android.
Most OEMs are expected to adopt WebKit as compliant, customisable and low cost

-  Flash Lite: now at 50% share of devices sold, but migrating to Flash 10 + OSP
Adobe suffered similar setbacks as Java; ubiquity, but fragmented runtime (to be addressed with Flash 10)

-  Qt: Nokia’s foundation for deploying Ovi services and its branded core apps
on a single substrate across S40, S60, PC and other OEM handsets

-  Java ME slowly moving towards MIDP3
Java will stay around due to 80% penetration across
sales base and established Java applications market.
But OEMs will push more advanced Java VMs.

                                                                                          source: Nokia
4   The Evolution of Revenue Models
4      Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution
                                                Services
                                                value created
                                                in the cloud




                          theWHEN
                            of value creation


pre-launch                                                                                  post-launch
value created during                                                                             value created
design, development and                                                             in channel, at point of sale
production                                                                               and during in-life use

                                                        the   WHERE
                                                                of value creation




                                                Device
                                                value created
                                                on the handset
4      Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution
       Value                                Services                        Value
                                            value created
  Design and               each quadrant                              services, apps and
                                            in the cloud
  development of              delivers                                content delivery
  software, hardware       distinct Value
  and services




pre-launch                                                           post-launch
value created during                                                      value created
design, development and                                      in channel, at point of sale
production                                                        and during in-life use




       Value                                                                Value
  industrial design                                                   monitoring
  hardware                                                            activation
  embedded software                         Device                    configuration
  software & hardware IP                                              management
                                            value created
                                            on the handset
4      Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution
       Value                                  Services                                                         Value
                                              value created       application
  Design and                                                                                             services, apps and
                                               in the cloud       developers
  development of                                                                                         content delivery
  software, hardware
                                                                   network
  and services
                                                                  operators

                                                                 service deliv.    handset
                                                                   platforms        OEMs
                           ..delivered by
                               distinct
                                            development           advertisers       content
                               players      tools vendors                         aggregators
pre-launch                                                                                              post-launch
value created during                                                                                         value created
design, development and       handset        ODMs and              handset                      in channel, at point of sale
production                     OEMs           EMSs                  OEMs                             and during in-life use

                             industrial      embedded               service
                           design houses    s/w vendors            analytics

                                             hardware             SIM card
       Value                                  vendors           manufacturers                                  Value
  industrial design                                                                                      monitoring
  hardware                                                                                               activation
  embedded software                                           Device                                     configuration
  software & hardware IP                                                                                 management
                                                              value created
                                                              on the handset
4      Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution
       Value           Revenue models                Services                                       Value            Revenue models
                                                     value created       application
  Design and           per developer seat                                                   services, apps and       per active user,
                                                      in the cloud       developers
  development of       per site                                                             content delivery         per impression
  software, hardware   per CPU          .. and using                                                                 per click
                                                                          network
  and services                             distinct                                                                  per transaction
                                                                         operators
                                      revenue models                                                                 subscription
                                                                                                                     risk-sharing
                                                                        service deliv.    handset
                                                                          platforms        OEMs

                                                   development           advertisers       content
                                                   tools vendors                         aggregators
pre-launch                                                                                                          post-launch
value created during                                                                                                     value created
design, development and           handset           ODMs and              handset                           in channel, at point of sale
production                         OEMs              EMSs                  OEMs                                  and during in-life use

                                 industrial         embedded               service
                               design houses       s/w vendors            analytics

                                                    hardware             SIM card
       Value           Revenue models                vendors           manufacturers                Value            Revenue models
  industrial design    per unit                                                             monitoring               per active user
  hardware             per platform                                                         activation               per unit
  embedded software    per device model                                                     configuration            per activation
                       per year
                                                                     Device
  IPR                                                                                       management               per app install
                                                                     value created
                                                                     on the handset
4      Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution
Revenue models                              Services                                                     Revenue models
                                            value created       application
per developer seat                                                              .. confirming            per active user,
                                             in the cloud       developers
per site                                                                        recent trends            per impression
per CPU                                                                                                  per click
                                                                 network
                                                                                                         per transaction
                                                                operators
                                                                                                         subscription
                                                                                                         risk-sharing
                                                               service deliv.     handset
                                                                 platforms         OEMs

                                          development           advertisers       content
                                          tools vendors                         aggregators
pre-launch                                                                                              post-launch
value created during                                                                                         value created
design, development and     handset        ODMs and              handset                        in channel, at point of sale
production                   OEMs           EMSs                  OEMs                               and during in-life use

                            industrial     embedded               service
                          design houses   s/w vendors            analytics      .. uncovering
                                                                                 new players
                                           hardware             SIM card
Revenue models                              vendors           manufacturers                              Revenue models
per unit                                                                                                 per active user
per platform                                                                                             per unit
per device model                                                                                         per activation
per year
                                                            Device                 .. and innovative
                                                                                                         per app install
                                                            value created           revenue models
                                                            on the handset
4      Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution
Revenue models                               Services                                                     Revenue models
                                             value created
per developer seat                                                                                        per active user,
                                              in the cloud
per site                                                                                                  per impression
per CPU                                                                                                   per click
                                                                                                          per transaction
                                                                                                          subscription
                                                                                                          risk-sharing




pre-launch                                                                                               post-launch
value created during                                                                                          value created
design, development and                                                                          in channel, at point of sale
production                                                                    .. and revealing        and during in-life use
                                     software
                                                                              the evolution of
                                    monetisation
                                                                               value creation
                                                                                  in mobile



Revenue models                                                                                            Revenue models
per unit                                                                                                  per active user
per platform                                                                                              per unit
                          patents & IPR
per device model                                                                                          per activation
                                                             Device
                                                                                                          per app install
                                                             value created
                                                             on the handset
5   Open is the new closed
5   Open is the new closed

    Open source is moving from early adoption to maturity across all handset
    OEMs
    Multiple major mobile open source efforts: Android, Symbian/S60, LiMo, Qt, WebKit, Java ME,
    MIDP3, AOL OMP, Qt, GTK, Eclipse IDE,..



    Key benefits:
    -  Shares cost and risk of developing software building blocks
    -  Speeds up innovation via third party contributions
    Key risks:
    -  Lack of education and established best practices in mobile OSS
5   Open is the new closed
    understanding licenses vs governance models
                                                                                                                            license type
                                                                                                                               Proprietary
                                                                                                                            community license



                                                                                                                                dual license
                                                                                                                            (commercial + copyleft)
       paid-for




                                                      Funambol Rhomobile                                   OKL4 phoneME


                                                                                                                             strong copyleft
                                                                                                                                 (GPL)
                                  Linux kernel
       hobbyists




                                                                                                                               weak copyleft
                                     GTK+                                                                                   (LGPL, MPL, EPL, ..)
                                                    platform              Foundation   Foundation         WebKit       Qt
                                     GTK+
       Participating developers




                                                                                                                              non-copyleft
                                                                                                                              (APL, others)
                                                                                                    OMP    Moto Android
                                                                                                           MIDP3
                                                                                                                                permissive
                                                                                                                              (BSD, MIT, ..)


                                  opinion leaders       moderator based         members only          single company

                                                                governance model
5          Open is the new closed
           which licenses and governance models are commonly used?
                                                                                                                                      license type
                                                                                                                                         Proprietary
                                                                                                                                      community license



                                                                                                                                          dual license
                                                                                                                                      (commercial + copyleft)
                 paid-for




                                                                Funambol Rhomobile                                   OKL4 phoneME


                                                                                                                                       strong copyleft
                                                                                                                                           (GPL)
                                            Linux kernel
                 hobbyists




  similar license,
varied governance                                                                                                                        weak copyleft
                                               GTK+                                                                                   (LGPL, MPL, EPL, ..)
                                                              platform              Foundation   Foundation         WebKit       Qt
                                               GTK+
                 Participating developers




                                                                                                                                        non-copyleft
                                                                                                                                        (APL, others)
                                                                                                              OMP    Moto Android
                                                                                                                     MIDP3
                                                                                                                                          permissive
                                                                                                                                        (BSD, MIT, ..)


                                            opinion leaders       moderator based         members only          single company

                                                                          governance model
5   Open is the new closed

    While:
    Licenses are standardised, converged and well understood
    4 licenses used most often in mobile projects (LGPL, EPL, APL, BSD)

    Governance models are proprietary, diverging and poorly understood


    And while:
    - Licenses are about source control
    source code access, modification, contribution and distribution

    - Governance is about product control
    product modification, forking, roadmap, IPR, membership fees..
5   Open is the new closed

    How ‘open’ is an open source project?
    Some questions to ask:
    - Is the source code publically available or to members only?
    - Are code check-ins publically accessible ?
    -  Are the minutes from meetings publically availably?
    -  Are there any fees or contractual commitments (NDAs, etc) required for members?
    - Who has access to check-in code? (and what is the process/medium for check-ins)
    - Who has the authority to release code and binaries (how is the release schedule determined)?
    - Who is entitled to branch source code ?
    - How is the roadmap formed ? What is the process and who has voting rights ?
    -  Are IP rights (patents, copyrights, etc) of contributions maintained or automatically transferred?
    - Do contributors have to transfer patents contained in the contributions ?
    - Are there any safe harbour provisions for contributors to the source code ?
5   Open is the new closed

    Governance models allow OSS use while maintaining control:
    - LiMo Foundation: open by inheritance
    Open because its members’ handsets are built on top of the Linux kernel
    Zero community contributions in two years since foundation (hired community manager in 4Q08)
    Only 40% of R1 code is OSS, rest is proprietary

    - Symbian Foundation: open source capitalism
    Open to compete with Android, marginalise Windows Mobile and make UIQ/MOAP irrelevant
    Open so as to reduce barriers to innovation, while lowering costs and risk of software development
    Nokia will have most influence over roadmap due to gravity of contributions: open source capitalism

    -  Android: as open as Google wants it to be
    Members can access code, but Google controls commits and product management
    Commercial agreements allow Google to bundle apps and services on Android handsets
6   The Mobile Application Store Craze
6   The Mobile Application Store Craze

    The industry has been trying to open the mobile apps market for many years


    2002: open route to technology (SDKs)
    the plan: open OSes and Java will enable 3rd party applications and revenue
    The reality: complex APIs, high porting costs, poor tools, poor discoverability, poor provisioning
    The result; Symbian (10,000 apps), BREW (10,000 apps), Java ME (45,000 apps)



    2008+: open route to market
    the plan: help developers deploy and make money, help users discover
    the reality: Apple’s app store the first to get the recipe right
    the result: 35,000 apps within 10 months, circa $500M revenues/year for Apple app store
    the impact: ALL major handset OEMs, OS vendors and operators want their own mobile app store.
6   The history of Mobile Application Stores

    Qualcomm intro’d mobile app stores (MAS), but Apple perfected the recipe.




    BREW Mobile Shop   Apple App Store   Android Market   RIM App Center Palm Software Store   Ovi Store

     2002               2008              2009+

    2009+: mobile application stores everywhere!
    OEMs: Samsung Innovator, MTK App Stores, Symbian, Microsoft MarketPlace, Adobe AppZone
    Operators: Orange App Shop, Verizon Appzone, Sprint OnDemand, China Mobile, T-Mobile, ..
    White label: Handango, Mobango, GetJar, Everypoint, Ideaworks 3D, Tanla, Motricity, Cellmania,
    Handmark, Javaground, OnMobile, Comverse, Amdocs, Qualcomm Plaza, Bango App Seller
6   Ovi Store update

    - Applications: native (Symbian/S60) + Java + widgets + Flash Lite apps
    - Content: *premium only* ringtones, wallpapers, videos, and themes
    - Self publish process (needs taxpayer ID + copyright declaration). 50 EUR reg. fee
    - Billing will be via credit card AND premium SMS (8 countries initially)
    - Revenue share: developers will get 70% revenue share (varies with MNO billing).
    - Availability: 200 million handsets by end 2009 (downloadable, not embedded)
    - Migration: WidSets discontinued to become Ovi Store runtime on S40.
    - Advertising: Spotlight will allow ad placements (time or CPM-based)
    - Features: recommendations based on friend picks and location
    (key to breaking promotion barriers of Apple’s top-25 lists and avoiding app price decline)
6   The key success factors of the MAS recipe (1/2)
6   The key success factors of the MAS recipe (2/2)
6   The Mobile Application Store Phenomenon

    The Apple App Store has also disintermediated the mobile apps value chain.

                 Developer         Publisher        Aggregator          Operator          End user
    Before:       (20%)             (20%)             (20%)              (40%)


                 Developer          Apple             End user
    After:        (70%)             (30%)




    ..and is stirring a rethink of the mobile games business:
       “The traditional mobile-game business model is not bearing much fruit. Console-game publishers
       Eidos, Vivendi and Sony and mobile content aggregator Player X have all closed their mobile-
       game-publishing operations; Glu, the third-largest mobile game publisher in terms of revenue has
       seen is share price collapse; and many companies have gone out of business, including publisher
       Telcogames and Jamba-owned developer Ojom.” .. “Fishlabs reports that it makes more money
       each day selling games at just €0.99 (US$1.30) each to iPhone users than it did in a month from
       all operator portals put together, where it sold them for the much higher price of €5 a game”.
       Source: Informa Mobile Media magazine, February 2009.
6   The Mobile Application Store Phenomenon

    Outlook:
    -  Successful MAS solutions will require all five key success factors
    -  Supply of MAS ingredients is in abundance
    Marketplace and content catalogues (e.g. Cellmania, Handango, GetJar), billing (e.g. Tanla, Bango, Qpass),
    distribution and retailing (e.g. July Systems, Motricity, Jamba, Handmark), on-device storefronts (e.g.
    mPortal, SurfKitchen, Everypoint), provisioning (e.g. InnoPath, Red Bend, mFormation).

    -  OEM-led mobile app stores will be most successful
    OEMs control provisioning, on-device discovery and have access to global distribution. Mobile app stores
    will be a key post-sales revenue source for OEMs.

    -  Operators will struggle to build and will buy or white label
    Operators/carriers lack of control over MAS key success factors and have limited s/w know-how.
    They will end up buying in or licensing MAS solutions
    Our prediction is that the Joint Innovation Lab will be short-lived.
7   NaaS: The Network as a Service
7   Network as a Service

    Mobile networks have traditionally been closed and slow to innovate
    -  internal-only product innovation has been extremely slow
    -  limited to mass-market, reach-all-handset services
    -  limited to a handful of 2nd parties, on a need-to basis only
    -  very complex APIs (IMS, Parlay, proprietary SDPs)



    But operators/carriers are finally realising that there are major revenues
    to be made by becoming a ‘service platform’ or a WebCo
    Network as a Service = reselling API access to 3rd party services
    Plus allows operators/carriers to empower a long-tail of applications that better cater to the long tail
    of consumer preferences  more choice = more users, less churn.
7   Network as a Service

    Networks have a breadth of services and consumer intelligence to expose
    e.g. click-to-call, billing access, send SMS/MMS/email, get location, IVR services, get device capabilities,
    access to voicemail, user authentication, access to user profile/calendar/contacts/favourites/photos.


    Early NaaS providers:

    - Orange Partner: 28 APIs, 4,000 active users most APIs are alpha and only in France
    - Vodafone Betavine: 5 APIs, 13,000+ users, 200+ applications rev share on apps
    - BT Web21C SDK: 6 APIs, 9,000+ developers provided by Ribbit (now BT)
    -  O2 Litmus: 3 APIs initial APIs are free, plan to charge for SMS/MMS APIs
    -  More joining Telenor Playground, Sprint Mobility Framework, Deutsche Telecom Develop Portal

    Standardisation efforts

    -  GSMA One API, Telefonica WIMS 2.0, Open Movilforum
7   Network as a Service

    NaaS services are late to market and slow to mature:
    -  3 years behind web companies (e.g. Amazon affiliates, Google AdSense)
    - 5 years behind alternatives (e.g. aggregators for SMS, billing, location)
    - High charges for API access (e.g. Orange €500 activation charge for Contact Everyone API).
    - Lack of intra-country and inter-country reach (APIs limited to subscribers reached by
    the operator within each country. There is also a lack of consistency across regional implementations).

    -  Lack of carrier-grade reliability (e.g. complaints of downtime on BT’s SMS API)
    -  No direct route to market for developers (developer programs are often run by R&D
    teams or otherwise lack direct access to commercial deployment or bundling deals)

    -  Limited operator experience in working with developers unlike web companies
7   Network as a Service

    Outlook:
    Next-gen SDPs and NEPs will run NaaS services on behalf of operators.


    Companies to watch:
    Aepona ($45M funding, major telco customers in US, Europe and blueprint for GSMA OneAPI)
    Ribbit (NaaS pioneer, Web 2.0/Internet background, acquired by BT)

    see also:
    www.slideshare.net/aubs/open-apis-a-telcos-perspective,
    www.gsmworld.com/accessentry
8   Service analytics: the most underhyped opportunity
8   Mobile service analytics

    Mobile is the most data rich industry; yet we are still in the dark ages


    - Difficult to assess devices, services and the user experience
    due to a scarcity of widely deployed measurement tools and the complexity of extracting intelligence

    -  Yet the mobile has infinitely more information about us than the web
    more information (voice, text, location, presence, mood, movement,..), more implicit (easier to extract),
    more often available, more closely tracking our behaviour  more valuable!

    -  and the analytics applications are phenomenal
    customer profiling and targeting, customer segmentation and value analysis, campaign management, ad
    inventory management, user experience analysis, network planning, handset & service performance
    analysis, revenue assurance, ..

    -  Did you say privacy? it will be traded off for new capabilities
    especially for social networking - see Facebook
8   Mobile service analytics

    Mobile service analytics is an under-the-radar market. Early suppliers:




    The value is across
    - gathering & storing metrics through device or network probes
    - aggregating across domains e.g. user segments, location, handset, services, etc
    - extracting intelligence information depending on the application


    ..and will enable many new revenue sources and revenue models
Thank you !

Further reading:

Industry Atlas
A visual who’s who of the mobile industry
www.visionmobile.com/maps


Mobile Open Source: Training Course
covering economics, licensing, governance models, communities,
operating systems, standards, case studies and strategies.
www.visionmobile.com/workshops

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Mobile Megatrends 2009 (VisionMobile)

  • 1. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. VisionMobile Research Mobile Megatrends 2009
  • 2. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. Mobile Megatrends 2009 Andreas Constantinou, Ph.D. Research Director, VisionMobile twitter: @andreascon Last updated: 2 June 2009 licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license.
  • 3. Mobile Megatrends Eight Centres of Gravity: the New Rules of Mobile. Market Gravity: The Rise and Fall of Market Value. The Software Industry is Consolidating. Mapping Business Model Innovation: Value Quadrants. Open is the New Closed. The Mobile Application Store Phenomenon. NaaS: Network as a Service. Mobile Service Analytics: the Most Underhyped Opportunity.
  • 4. VisionMobile Research Reports selected analyst reports On-Device Portals: The New Age of MDM Case Study: Five Defining Traits Beyond WAP Handset Motorola of Open Source (ARCchart) Customisation: (Ovum) (Informa) 2006-2011 (ARCchart) High-Capacity SIMs Mobile Operating Firmware OTA: GPLv2 vs GPLv3 (Informa) Systems: The New From Hype to White Paper Generation Market Reality (ARCchart) Mobile Software Activating the Idle Open Source in Mobile Management Screen: Uncharted Mobile: 2007-2012 Megatrends Report Territory (Informa) 2008 (Informa)
  • 5. VisionMobile Market-How Maps Mobile Industry Atlas The 100 million club :a visual map of who's who in the mobile : the watchlist of software companies whose handset industry, showcasing 800+ leading products have been embedded on more than companies across 47 market sectors. 100 million cellular handsets
  • 8. 1 Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power
  • 9. 1 Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power The industry is moving again into a vertically integrated structure From the vertically integrated devices 20 years ago, to the horizontal enabler era of ODMs and OSes, and again into a vertical integration of hardware + software + services with Nokia, Google et al start
  • 10. 1 Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power Google, LiMo, Nokia, Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Intel are building vertically integrated solutions and related ecosystems in effect: Centres of Gravity ecosystem players vertical solution
  • 11. 1 Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power Starting from software or hardware, and building upwards .. ..the value wars are moving up the stack!
  • 12. 1 Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power
  • 13. 1 Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power Outlook: -  RIM aggressively moving into forming a centre of gravity -  LiMo’s future is uncertain: LiMo-compliance only applies to circa 1% of the software stack -  How succesful will be Adobe’s transition of Flash Lite into Flash 10 through the Open Screen Project? -  Can Sony Ericsson elevate Capuchin from a toolkit to a platform? -  Will Nokia divorce its Internet and manufacturing personae? - Plus: networks are now moving into horizontal structure; via outsourced IT operations, outsourced customer operations (see MVNO) and outsourced sub-brands (see Blyk, Out There Media)
  • 14. 2 Market gravity: the rise and fall of market value
  • 15. 2 Market gravity: the rise and fall of market value Every market sector follows a downwards path; As if pulled by a gravity, it goes through 3 stages: novelty network as a service - Novelty: the point when a novel product spectrum scarcity is introduced, but demand is scarce. market formation - Differentiation: market is formed and voice ring-back differentiation products become a point of differentiation services tones -  Utility: when the products in the market MVNOs have limited sale value, but have become essential commodities. ringtones location services Gravity accelerators/decelerators value sideloading For every market there are factors or events causing Latitude line Google iTunes` utility its gravity to accelerate or decelerate (e.g. see what Google Latitude has done for MNO location services)
  • 16. 2 Market gravity: the rise and fall of market value Device technologies Network services novelty network as a service mobile haptics spectrum service scarcity analytics market mobile formation application billing stores widgets voice ring-back access differentiation touch- services tones screens synchroni- MVNOs application sation iPhone environments Active Idle multimedia photo Screen Flash codecs ringtones sharing Lite Java location virtual services machines value sideloading browsers core on-device Latitude line Google iTunes` Dalvik portals utility operating systems WebKit Linux
  • 17. 3 The software industry is consolidating
  • 18. 3 The software industry is consolidating Operating systems for smartphones are now reduced to two choices: (smartphone OSes are strategically important to OEMs due to high margins of smartphones) 1. S60: now with low cost of ownership and UIQ, MOAP out of the way Pros: Backed by Nokia, SEMC, Samsung, LG, but not Motorola. Mature and operator compliant Cons: Nokia’s dominance of package ownership and lack of UI differentiation may alienate OEMs 2. Android: advanced architecture, but not catering to OEM needs Pros: Backed by HTC, SEMC, Samsung, LG, Huawei. Dell, Garmin, Fujitsu, China Mobile, Vodafone, O2. Pros: designed from the ground up for 3rd party developers; fastest in developing and debugging apps Cons: not designed for 2nd parties (OEM partners); variant creation is very resource intensive Cons: software is not pre-integrated with telephony stack and needs Google engineering resource; Our prediction: 5 Android devices will launch within 2009.
  • 19. 3 The software industry is consolidating ..while other smartphone OSes have been sidelined: Linux is no longer the panacea it was considered to be in 2006 - Android’s flexibility and short time-to-market has pre-empted Linux’s openness -  ALP, Azingo are still in development, with phones expected in early 2010. -  LiMo has been a diversion for ALP, Azingo and Myriad (Purple Labs), diverting focus away from product development, into operator customisations and business development. -  The discontinuation of Motorola’s L-J and the decline in the Japan smartphone market has meant lower volumes from key Linux champions -  Linux is now meaningful only as an OS-supporting base Windows Mobile has niched itself into a corner -  OEMs use Windows Mobile for enterprise phones or tactical wins (e.g. HTC X1) -  ODMs do not have the money or expertise to invest in consumer-oriented industrial designs -  The first consumer-oriented version of the OS, Windows Mobile 7, has been delayed to 2010 RIM’s Java platform and OSX growing strong but not licensable
  • 20. 3 The software industry is consolidating Mobile Linux landscape: from 10 vendors in 2007 to 5 in 2009 - Linux for mid-end: Myriad (ex Purple Labs) now including Openwave client business and the Sagem software business -  Linux for smartphones: Azingo and Access Linux Platform two acquisitions later, ALP is suffering from permanent beta status - since PalmOS 6 in 2004 -  Linux for MIDs: Moblin (now with OpenedHand) and Ubuntu Mobile Missing in action: MontaVista, A la Mobile, OpenMoko (no consumer devices). - Plus system integrators: WindRiver (now with Mizi know-how), Teleca, Movial But Linux market share is in decline Linux only 5.1% of the smartphone market in 3Q08, compared to 6% in 2006 (data: Canalys)
  • 21. 3 The software industry is consolidating Four application environments set to dominate: - WebKit: de facto standard for web content and service delivery to hit 100m shipments by 2H09 due to its integration with S40, S60, OSX and Android. Most OEMs are expected to adopt WebKit as compliant, customisable and low cost -  Flash Lite: now at 50% share of devices sold, but migrating to Flash 10 + OSP Adobe suffered similar setbacks as Java; ubiquity, but fragmented runtime (to be addressed with Flash 10) -  Qt: Nokia’s foundation for deploying Ovi services and its branded core apps on a single substrate across S40, S60, PC and other OEM handsets -  Java ME slowly moving towards MIDP3 Java will stay around due to 80% penetration across sales base and established Java applications market. But OEMs will push more advanced Java VMs. source: Nokia
  • 22. 4 The Evolution of Revenue Models
  • 23. 4 Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution Services value created in the cloud theWHEN of value creation pre-launch post-launch value created during value created design, development and in channel, at point of sale production and during in-life use the WHERE of value creation Device value created on the handset
  • 24. 4 Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution Value Services Value value created Design and each quadrant services, apps and in the cloud development of delivers content delivery software, hardware distinct Value and services pre-launch post-launch value created during value created design, development and in channel, at point of sale production and during in-life use Value Value industrial design monitoring hardware activation embedded software Device configuration software & hardware IP management value created on the handset
  • 25. 4 Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution Value Services Value value created application Design and services, apps and in the cloud developers development of content delivery software, hardware network and services operators service deliv. handset platforms OEMs ..delivered by distinct development advertisers content players tools vendors aggregators pre-launch post-launch value created during value created design, development and handset ODMs and handset in channel, at point of sale production OEMs EMSs OEMs and during in-life use industrial embedded service design houses s/w vendors analytics hardware SIM card Value vendors manufacturers Value industrial design monitoring hardware activation embedded software Device configuration software & hardware IP management value created on the handset
  • 26. 4 Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution Value Revenue models Services Value Revenue models value created application Design and per developer seat services, apps and per active user, in the cloud developers development of per site content delivery per impression software, hardware per CPU .. and using per click network and services distinct per transaction operators revenue models subscription risk-sharing service deliv. handset platforms OEMs development advertisers content tools vendors aggregators pre-launch post-launch value created during value created design, development and handset ODMs and handset in channel, at point of sale production OEMs EMSs OEMs and during in-life use industrial embedded service design houses s/w vendors analytics hardware SIM card Value Revenue models vendors manufacturers Value Revenue models industrial design per unit monitoring per active user hardware per platform activation per unit embedded software per device model configuration per activation per year Device IPR management per app install value created on the handset
  • 27. 4 Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution Revenue models Services Revenue models value created application per developer seat .. confirming per active user, in the cloud developers per site recent trends per impression per CPU per click network per transaction operators subscription risk-sharing service deliv. handset platforms OEMs development advertisers content tools vendors aggregators pre-launch post-launch value created during value created design, development and handset ODMs and handset in channel, at point of sale production OEMs EMSs OEMs and during in-life use industrial embedded service design houses s/w vendors analytics .. uncovering new players hardware SIM card Revenue models vendors manufacturers Revenue models per unit per active user per platform per unit per device model per activation per year Device .. and innovative per app install value created revenue models on the handset
  • 28. 4 Value Quadrants: mapping revenue model evolution Revenue models Services Revenue models value created per developer seat per active user, in the cloud per site per impression per CPU per click per transaction subscription risk-sharing pre-launch post-launch value created during value created design, development and in channel, at point of sale production .. and revealing and during in-life use software the evolution of monetisation value creation in mobile Revenue models Revenue models per unit per active user per platform per unit patents & IPR per device model per activation Device per app install value created on the handset
  • 29. 5 Open is the new closed
  • 30. 5 Open is the new closed Open source is moving from early adoption to maturity across all handset OEMs Multiple major mobile open source efforts: Android, Symbian/S60, LiMo, Qt, WebKit, Java ME, MIDP3, AOL OMP, Qt, GTK, Eclipse IDE,.. Key benefits: -  Shares cost and risk of developing software building blocks -  Speeds up innovation via third party contributions Key risks: -  Lack of education and established best practices in mobile OSS
  • 31. 5 Open is the new closed understanding licenses vs governance models license type Proprietary community license dual license (commercial + copyleft) paid-for Funambol Rhomobile OKL4 phoneME strong copyleft (GPL) Linux kernel hobbyists weak copyleft GTK+ (LGPL, MPL, EPL, ..) platform Foundation Foundation WebKit Qt GTK+ Participating developers non-copyleft (APL, others) OMP Moto Android MIDP3 permissive (BSD, MIT, ..) opinion leaders moderator based members only single company governance model
  • 32. 5 Open is the new closed which licenses and governance models are commonly used? license type Proprietary community license dual license (commercial + copyleft) paid-for Funambol Rhomobile OKL4 phoneME strong copyleft (GPL) Linux kernel hobbyists similar license, varied governance weak copyleft GTK+ (LGPL, MPL, EPL, ..) platform Foundation Foundation WebKit Qt GTK+ Participating developers non-copyleft (APL, others) OMP Moto Android MIDP3 permissive (BSD, MIT, ..) opinion leaders moderator based members only single company governance model
  • 33. 5 Open is the new closed While: Licenses are standardised, converged and well understood 4 licenses used most often in mobile projects (LGPL, EPL, APL, BSD) Governance models are proprietary, diverging and poorly understood And while: - Licenses are about source control source code access, modification, contribution and distribution - Governance is about product control product modification, forking, roadmap, IPR, membership fees..
  • 34. 5 Open is the new closed How ‘open’ is an open source project? Some questions to ask: - Is the source code publically available or to members only? - Are code check-ins publically accessible ? -  Are the minutes from meetings publically availably? -  Are there any fees or contractual commitments (NDAs, etc) required for members? - Who has access to check-in code? (and what is the process/medium for check-ins) - Who has the authority to release code and binaries (how is the release schedule determined)? - Who is entitled to branch source code ? - How is the roadmap formed ? What is the process and who has voting rights ? -  Are IP rights (patents, copyrights, etc) of contributions maintained or automatically transferred? - Do contributors have to transfer patents contained in the contributions ? - Are there any safe harbour provisions for contributors to the source code ?
  • 35. 5 Open is the new closed Governance models allow OSS use while maintaining control: - LiMo Foundation: open by inheritance Open because its members’ handsets are built on top of the Linux kernel Zero community contributions in two years since foundation (hired community manager in 4Q08) Only 40% of R1 code is OSS, rest is proprietary - Symbian Foundation: open source capitalism Open to compete with Android, marginalise Windows Mobile and make UIQ/MOAP irrelevant Open so as to reduce barriers to innovation, while lowering costs and risk of software development Nokia will have most influence over roadmap due to gravity of contributions: open source capitalism -  Android: as open as Google wants it to be Members can access code, but Google controls commits and product management Commercial agreements allow Google to bundle apps and services on Android handsets
  • 36. 6 The Mobile Application Store Craze
  • 37. 6 The Mobile Application Store Craze The industry has been trying to open the mobile apps market for many years 2002: open route to technology (SDKs) the plan: open OSes and Java will enable 3rd party applications and revenue The reality: complex APIs, high porting costs, poor tools, poor discoverability, poor provisioning The result; Symbian (10,000 apps), BREW (10,000 apps), Java ME (45,000 apps) 2008+: open route to market the plan: help developers deploy and make money, help users discover the reality: Apple’s app store the first to get the recipe right the result: 35,000 apps within 10 months, circa $500M revenues/year for Apple app store the impact: ALL major handset OEMs, OS vendors and operators want their own mobile app store.
  • 38. 6 The history of Mobile Application Stores Qualcomm intro’d mobile app stores (MAS), but Apple perfected the recipe. BREW Mobile Shop Apple App Store Android Market RIM App Center Palm Software Store Ovi Store 2002 2008 2009+ 2009+: mobile application stores everywhere! OEMs: Samsung Innovator, MTK App Stores, Symbian, Microsoft MarketPlace, Adobe AppZone Operators: Orange App Shop, Verizon Appzone, Sprint OnDemand, China Mobile, T-Mobile, .. White label: Handango, Mobango, GetJar, Everypoint, Ideaworks 3D, Tanla, Motricity, Cellmania, Handmark, Javaground, OnMobile, Comverse, Amdocs, Qualcomm Plaza, Bango App Seller
  • 39. 6 Ovi Store update - Applications: native (Symbian/S60) + Java + widgets + Flash Lite apps - Content: *premium only* ringtones, wallpapers, videos, and themes - Self publish process (needs taxpayer ID + copyright declaration). 50 EUR reg. fee - Billing will be via credit card AND premium SMS (8 countries initially) - Revenue share: developers will get 70% revenue share (varies with MNO billing). - Availability: 200 million handsets by end 2009 (downloadable, not embedded) - Migration: WidSets discontinued to become Ovi Store runtime on S40. - Advertising: Spotlight will allow ad placements (time or CPM-based) - Features: recommendations based on friend picks and location (key to breaking promotion barriers of Apple’s top-25 lists and avoiding app price decline)
  • 40. 6 The key success factors of the MAS recipe (1/2)
  • 41. 6 The key success factors of the MAS recipe (2/2)
  • 42. 6 The Mobile Application Store Phenomenon The Apple App Store has also disintermediated the mobile apps value chain. Developer Publisher Aggregator Operator End user Before: (20%) (20%) (20%) (40%) Developer Apple End user After: (70%) (30%) ..and is stirring a rethink of the mobile games business: “The traditional mobile-game business model is not bearing much fruit. Console-game publishers Eidos, Vivendi and Sony and mobile content aggregator Player X have all closed their mobile- game-publishing operations; Glu, the third-largest mobile game publisher in terms of revenue has seen is share price collapse; and many companies have gone out of business, including publisher Telcogames and Jamba-owned developer Ojom.” .. “Fishlabs reports that it makes more money each day selling games at just €0.99 (US$1.30) each to iPhone users than it did in a month from all operator portals put together, where it sold them for the much higher price of €5 a game”. Source: Informa Mobile Media magazine, February 2009.
  • 43. 6 The Mobile Application Store Phenomenon Outlook: -  Successful MAS solutions will require all five key success factors -  Supply of MAS ingredients is in abundance Marketplace and content catalogues (e.g. Cellmania, Handango, GetJar), billing (e.g. Tanla, Bango, Qpass), distribution and retailing (e.g. July Systems, Motricity, Jamba, Handmark), on-device storefronts (e.g. mPortal, SurfKitchen, Everypoint), provisioning (e.g. InnoPath, Red Bend, mFormation). -  OEM-led mobile app stores will be most successful OEMs control provisioning, on-device discovery and have access to global distribution. Mobile app stores will be a key post-sales revenue source for OEMs. -  Operators will struggle to build and will buy or white label Operators/carriers lack of control over MAS key success factors and have limited s/w know-how. They will end up buying in or licensing MAS solutions Our prediction is that the Joint Innovation Lab will be short-lived.
  • 44. 7 NaaS: The Network as a Service
  • 45. 7 Network as a Service Mobile networks have traditionally been closed and slow to innovate -  internal-only product innovation has been extremely slow -  limited to mass-market, reach-all-handset services -  limited to a handful of 2nd parties, on a need-to basis only -  very complex APIs (IMS, Parlay, proprietary SDPs) But operators/carriers are finally realising that there are major revenues to be made by becoming a ‘service platform’ or a WebCo Network as a Service = reselling API access to 3rd party services Plus allows operators/carriers to empower a long-tail of applications that better cater to the long tail of consumer preferences  more choice = more users, less churn.
  • 46. 7 Network as a Service Networks have a breadth of services and consumer intelligence to expose e.g. click-to-call, billing access, send SMS/MMS/email, get location, IVR services, get device capabilities, access to voicemail, user authentication, access to user profile/calendar/contacts/favourites/photos. Early NaaS providers: - Orange Partner: 28 APIs, 4,000 active users most APIs are alpha and only in France - Vodafone Betavine: 5 APIs, 13,000+ users, 200+ applications rev share on apps - BT Web21C SDK: 6 APIs, 9,000+ developers provided by Ribbit (now BT) -  O2 Litmus: 3 APIs initial APIs are free, plan to charge for SMS/MMS APIs -  More joining Telenor Playground, Sprint Mobility Framework, Deutsche Telecom Develop Portal Standardisation efforts -  GSMA One API, Telefonica WIMS 2.0, Open Movilforum
  • 47. 7 Network as a Service NaaS services are late to market and slow to mature: -  3 years behind web companies (e.g. Amazon affiliates, Google AdSense) - 5 years behind alternatives (e.g. aggregators for SMS, billing, location) - High charges for API access (e.g. Orange €500 activation charge for Contact Everyone API). - Lack of intra-country and inter-country reach (APIs limited to subscribers reached by the operator within each country. There is also a lack of consistency across regional implementations). -  Lack of carrier-grade reliability (e.g. complaints of downtime on BT’s SMS API) -  No direct route to market for developers (developer programs are often run by R&D teams or otherwise lack direct access to commercial deployment or bundling deals) -  Limited operator experience in working with developers unlike web companies
  • 48. 7 Network as a Service Outlook: Next-gen SDPs and NEPs will run NaaS services on behalf of operators. Companies to watch: Aepona ($45M funding, major telco customers in US, Europe and blueprint for GSMA OneAPI) Ribbit (NaaS pioneer, Web 2.0/Internet background, acquired by BT) see also: www.slideshare.net/aubs/open-apis-a-telcos-perspective, www.gsmworld.com/accessentry
  • 49. 8 Service analytics: the most underhyped opportunity
  • 50. 8 Mobile service analytics Mobile is the most data rich industry; yet we are still in the dark ages - Difficult to assess devices, services and the user experience due to a scarcity of widely deployed measurement tools and the complexity of extracting intelligence -  Yet the mobile has infinitely more information about us than the web more information (voice, text, location, presence, mood, movement,..), more implicit (easier to extract), more often available, more closely tracking our behaviour  more valuable! -  and the analytics applications are phenomenal customer profiling and targeting, customer segmentation and value analysis, campaign management, ad inventory management, user experience analysis, network planning, handset & service performance analysis, revenue assurance, .. -  Did you say privacy? it will be traded off for new capabilities especially for social networking - see Facebook
  • 51. 8 Mobile service analytics Mobile service analytics is an under-the-radar market. Early suppliers: The value is across - gathering & storing metrics through device or network probes - aggregating across domains e.g. user segments, location, handset, services, etc - extracting intelligence information depending on the application ..and will enable many new revenue sources and revenue models
  • 52. Thank you ! Further reading: Industry Atlas A visual who’s who of the mobile industry www.visionmobile.com/maps Mobile Open Source: Training Course covering economics, licensing, governance models, communities, operating systems, standards, case studies and strategies. www.visionmobile.com/workshops