Legislative Symposium

1. Welcome to the
Legislative Symposium
January 16, 2015

2. Seminar 1: A General Overview on NH’s competitive
advantage versus our Neighboring States
Time: 1:00-2:15pm
Mr. Steve Norton
Executive Director of the
NH Center for Public Policy
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 2

3. Tailwinds to Headwinds to ...
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 3

4. 3rd Highest Median
Age in the Country
Why?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 4

5. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 5

6. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 6

7. Astounding Growth
700,000
1968
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 7
1.3 million
2013

8. Projections: Limited Growth
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 8
Ten Year Percent Change in New Hampshire Population by Decade End
8.5%
13.8%
21.5%
24.8%
20.5%
11.4%
6.5%
3.3% 3.8%
1.1%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Actual
Forecast

9. Productivity
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 9
GDP
Per Job

10. At the Economic Macro Level?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 10
$-
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
New Hampshire Total Compensation Paid by Selected Industries
(Thousands of Dollars)
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Retail Trade
Finance
Construction
Education
Real Estate
Government
Hi-Tech

11. Virtually all our public policy
is based on a picture of
ourselves and trends that are
not really true any longer
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 11

12. What’s Next?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 12

13. Cultural and Natural Resources
• State spending on
natural resources per
person
• Percent of tree cover
in urban areas
• Domestic tourism
spending per capita
• Creative Economy
Jobs Concentration
• Voter turnout rate
• Volunteering rate
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 13

14. Education, Labor and Workforce
• Change in 35-44
population share, 2000 to
2010
• Percent of adult population
with an associate degree
or higher
• Percent of population in
Science and Engineering
workforce
• High school graduation
rate
• Student debt per person
• Rate at which high school
graduates go on to post-
secondary institutions
• Percent of children aged 3
to 4 years old enrolled in
preschool
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 14

15. Fiscal Policy
• State Business Climate
Tax Index
• Top Marginal Corporate
Tax Rate
• Public Health, Welfare,
Hospital Spending per
Person in Poverty
• State Debt per Dollar of
Personal Income
• Public Government and
Administration per
Dollar of Personal
Income
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 15

16. Energy
• Industrial Electric
Prices
• Natural Gas Prices in
Dollars per Million
BTUs
• Energy Consumption
• Expenditures Per
Capita
• Energy Efficiency
Rank
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 16

17. How Does NH Rank?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 17

18. Working Age Population Will
Decline in Every County
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 18
1%
-7%
-3%
-5%
-6%
-6%
-9%
-8%
-11%
-14%
-14%
-26%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
United States
New Hampshire
Strafford
Hillsborough
Rockingham
Sullivan
Merrimack
Belknap
Cheshire
Grafton
Carroll
Coos
Declines in Working Age Population
2010-2030

19. Educating Our Own?
HS Graduation Rate?
4th in the Country
24th in the country in HS
Grads going on to a
degree granting institute
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 19

20. Workforce Development?
• Educate our own better …. ?
• Make NH a place in which a new
generation of diverse, urban dwelling,
millennials …. ?
• Narrow our economic focus to specific
geography or industry?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 20

21. Building on Assets: For its size, the Nashua-Manchester Corridor
is in the top 10 with fastest growing companies
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 21

22. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 22
Merrimack –
Hillsborough
Corridor is
Growing

23. Hillsborough County …
2010 - 2020
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 23
2.5% 1.7% 2.7%
-0.1%
10.4%
38.9%
12.3%
24.5%
6.3%
0.9%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Annual Job Growth by County 2010 to 2013,
Share of Total Job Growth

24. “The Young and Restless—25 to 34 year-
olds with a bachelor’s degree or higher level
of education—are increasingly moving to the
close-in neighborhoods of the nation’s large
metropolitan areas. This migration is
fueling economic growth and urban
revitalization.”
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 24
http://cityobservatory.org/ynr/

25. What’s the Goal?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 25

26. Converting Headwinds to Tailwinds: Workforce
• Workforce
i. Better educate our own to support economic activity
ii. Ensure that we are a place that young professionals
want to move to and stay
• Solutions
i. Support businesses in creating training feeder systems?
ii. Increase state spending on USNH & CCSNH?
• But what is the return on investment?
iii. Scholarships to keep graduates in state?
• Would these reach intended targets?
iv. Overall K-12 curricula, including STEM, etc?
• How does this align with needs of future economy?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 26

27. Business Climate
• Goal: Continue to be (improve our status as a)
business-friendly place
• Solutions
i. Lower costs?
• Health care
• Energy
• Real Estate
ii. Reduce business taxes?
• What are unintended consequences for state budget?
iii. Reduce regulation?
• How does NH really compare to other states?
iv. More aggressive recruiting and incentives?
• Do these work? i.e. Smokestack chasing?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 27

28. Focus more effectively where we
have a comparative advantage
i. Recognize regional variation in economic ecology
and assets.
• Limit focus to geographic clusters?
– Manchester: Hi-tech Millyard
– Portsmouth: Build off UNH energy
– Upper Valley: Dartmouth as incubator
– Nashua: Extending high tech north
ii. Industry
• Aerospace
• Bio-tech
• Travel tourism
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 28

29. The Long View of State Spending
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 29
2.85%
2.35%
2.22%
2.06%
0.89%
-0.19%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
Health and
Human
Services
Admin of
Justice and
Public Prtn
Resource
Protection and
Development
Education General
Government
Transportation
Annualized Change in Per Capita Inflation Adjusted State Spending
(Total Funds) 1990 to 2015

30. New Hampshire Center for Public
Policy Studies
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 30
Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross,
Chair Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

31. Seminar 2: NH’s Budget Overview
Time: 2:30 PM – 3:30 PM
Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus
President of The Josiah Bartlett
Center for Public Policy
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 31

32. General Fund 2000-2015
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 32
1000000
1100000
1200000
1300000
1400000
1500000
1600000
Apples to Apples "general fund"
15 year Average = 1.99%

33. Priorities: 2012 vs. 2006
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 33
$1,302M
General Fund*
(-1.4%)
$629.3M
HHS
(+4.4%)
$174M
DD & BH
(+34%)
$455M
Other HHS
(-3.8%)
$565.8M
Non-HHS
(-10.9%)
$106.9M
Debt Service
(+29.7%)

34. Priorities: 2015 vs. 2013
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 34
$1,470.6M
General Fund*
(+9.8%)
$681.2M
HHS
(+5.7%)
$215.7M
DD & BH
(+16.6%)
$465.5M
Other HHS
(+1.4%)
$668M
Non-HHS
(+14.4%)
$121.4M
Debt Service
(+9.1%)

35. Debt Balloon 1993-2013
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 35
$500.0
$550.0
$600.0
$650.0
$700.0
$750.0
$800.0
$850.0
$900.0
$950.0
$1,000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
NH General Obligation Debt
Annual Growth 93-07: 0.67% -- 07-11: 9.5%
Debt

36. No Such Thing As Average
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 36
3.2
-2.9
3.3 3.6
8.7
5.5
6.3
1.0
-10.5
-3.6
-2.0
1.7
3.6
0.8
-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average Tax Growth 2001-2014 = 1.3%
not including rate increases or SPT, MET

37. Two Major Modern Reforms
• 1970: Business Profits Tax
• 1993: Business Enterprise Tax
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 37

38. Business Taxes Volatile
1978-1993
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 38
Growth Swings in 83 Point Range
60.7%
22.1%
-1.9%
-8.8%
39.1%
-9.0%
40.6%
9.0%
0.4%
34.5%
-8.9%
4.8%
-22.5%
0.9%
-18.2%
40.5%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

39. Lessened Volatility 1994-2010
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 39
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Growth Swings in 44 point Range

40. A 14 year Lost Decade
• 1981-2001: 50.8% Job Growth
• (81-91: 27.5%; 91-01: 18.2%)
• 2001-2011: 4.9% Job Growth
• If Ifs and buts were candy and nuts:
i. 27.5% - 169,000 extra jobs.
ii. 18.2% - 105,400 extra jobs
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 40

41. Everything’s Better in Texas
Job Growth Since the Recession:
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 41
-0.11%
11.75%
0.44%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Hampshire Texas US, less TX

42. Another Look: Since 1983
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 42
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Nation NH TX

43. Comme Ci Comme Ca
• Current Hole: $29.8 million
• Quasi-balanced base
• 2 years ago: $57**m surplus
• 4 Years: $800m nightmare
• Uncertain 2016-2017
i. Medicaid Enhancement Tax
ii. Dedicated Funds (16M)
iii. Rainy Day Fund
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 43

44. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 44
Fiscal Year
2006
State of NH
NH General Fund
$72.9M
Federal
Government
NH Hospitals
+/-0
Transferto
GF
$72.9M
DSH
Payments
$72.9M
MET
Revenues
$145.8M
DSHMatch
$72.9M

45. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 45
State of NH
NH General Fund
$74.8M
Federal
Government
NH Hospitals
-$50.2M (-$126.1M)
TransfertoGF
$74.8M
DSH
Payments
$24.6M
GrossMET
Revenues
$175.3M
DSHMatch
$24.6M
Provider
Payments
$75.9M

46. Charlie Arlinghaus
Josiah Bartlett Center for Public
Policy
arlinghaus@jbartlett.org
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 46

47. Seminar 3: Energy in the Granite State
Time: 3:45 PM – 4:30 PM
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 47
Mark Bailey Donna Gamache
Facilities Engineering Manager
BAE Systems
Director, Governmental Affairs
Public Service of
New Hampshire

48. MARK BAILEY
Facilities Engineering Manager
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 48
Energy in the Granite State

49. Electronic Systems footprint
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 49
11,300 Employees
$4B Revenue
25 Locations

50. Electronic Systems origins
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 50

51. Our Missions
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 51

52. Energy Prices in NE
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 52
New England needs AFFORDABLE & RELIABLE energy

53. Historical Electricity Prices Increases
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 53
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CentsperkWh
Average U.S Electricity Prices by Sector
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Residential: consists of living quarters for private households
Commercial: consists of service-providing facilities
Industrial: consists of all facilities and equipment used for
producing, processing, or assembling goods.

54. Site Electric Rates
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 54
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
ATX ENY FWA GNY PTP LEX MER NCA NHQ TNJ WNJ
$/kWh
Electricity Prices (FY 2013)
Average Rate = 0.1053

55. Performance Trends
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 55
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Energy 305.0 306.5 290.4 283.0 272.1
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
MillionkWh
ES Energy
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Water 234.6 159.1 122.4 105.6 93.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
MillionGallons
ES Water

56. BAE Actions to Stabilize Our
Energy Future
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 56
• Conserve:
Sustainability & Strategic Energy Programs
(Real Estate Optimization, Energy Policy, ESA, UCT, MOE, UBM &
Supply Side Consulting)
• Learn:
Stay current with energy market conditions
& legislation
• Lead:
Provide leadership by having a public voice

57. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 57

58. DONNA GAMACHE
Director, Governmental Affairs
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 58
WORKING TO PROVIDE NEW HAMPSHIRE
WITH ENERGY SOLUTIONS

59. RESIDENTIAL ENERGY RATES ARE
RISING
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 59
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
PSNH Unitil Liberty NH Electric Coop
9.90
8.40 7.70 9.00
0.66
7.10 7.80
2.60
2014 Price Recent Price Change
10.56
15.50 15.50
11.60

60. Non-Gas Power Plants Are Retiring:
60
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce

61. Energy Solutions for New Hampshire
61
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce

 PSNH’s fleet of power plants continue to run efficiently
protecting customers from today’s volatile energy market
  Grid Reliability Projects will improve reliability and add capacity
to accommodate ongoing economic growth in the region
  Northern Pass will bring 1200 MW of clean hydro power
to the region
  Access Northeast is expected to increase natural gas supply by
1 billion cubic feet per day

62. BOB DUNN
Director of Legislative and Governmental Affairs, Devine Millimet
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 62
OVERVIEW OF CHAMBER ADVOCACY EFFORTS

63. Thank You for Attending
There will now be a reception in the Ashwood Court
January 16, 2015

64. Our Upcoming Events
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 64
Date: Wednesday,
January 21, 2015
Time: 12:00 PM –
2:00 PM
Location:
Courtyard Marriot,
Nashua
Date: Thursday,
January 22, 2015
Time:
8:00 – 9:30 AM
Location:
Educational
Outfitters, Nashua
Date: Wednesday,
February 1, 2015
Time: 5:30-7:30 PM
Location: Massage
Envy Spa, Nashua
Date: Wednesday,
February 18th, 2015
Time: 7:30 – 9:00 AM
Location: Courtyard
Marriott
Economic
Outlook
Luncheon
TD Bank
Networking
Series at
Educational
Outfitters
February
Business
After
Hours
State of the City:
A Conversation
with Our Mayor
Donnalee Lozeau