IAOS-OECD 2018 conference, 19-21 September 2018, Paris. More information at: http://www.oecd.org/iaos2018/

1. THE NECESSITY OF USING REGISTER
BASED METHOD FOR CENSUSES IN
AFRICAN COUNTRIES WITH REFERENCE
TO THE SUDAN CASE
PROF. AWAD HAG ALI AHMED, NEELAIN
UNIVERSITY, SUDAN

2. 1. THE PROBLEM
2. The Impact of The Problem
3. The traditional method of censuses(house to house field coverage) challenges
4. The Sudan Case:1955/1956,1973, 1983, 1993 and 2008 Censuses
5. Analysis and Discussion
6. Advantages of The population Register based System
7. Challenges of Register Based Census
8. Conclusion

3. According to UNFPA reports most African countries are not
committed to the U.N. recommendation of conducting a country
populationcensus every ten years.
 It is observed that even those countries which were able to
perform their population censuses have faced serious
challenges. The most important are the lack of population
coverage andthe lackofinformationaccuracy .
The Problem

4. Many censuses results were rejected by governments, by
opposition parties, by people leaders or by civil society
organizations duethese challenges.
 In some occasions that have led to regional or tribal conflicts.
The Impact of The Problem

5. It is very expensive in general and most African counties cannot afford.
The week infra-structure (roads, transport,) in many African countries will
increase the cost and the difficulties to reach the household.
The big size area and highly scattered population in many African countries
will make full geographical coverage very difficult and reaching every
household during the days of numeration may be impossible.
The traditional method of censuses(house to house field coverage) challenges

6. Using local teachers as numerators, which is the most practical
option, has proved to be one of the main causes of inaccuracy due to
their lack of qualification and sufficient training in this type of jobs.
Part of the population is not aware of the importance of the census
and they don’t care of giving the correct information and part is
completely reluctant to participate.
In contrast other part are very aware of the importance of the census
and will use all legal or illegal ways and methods to increase their size
of population hoping to get higher representation in parliament and
better share in services.
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7. Part of the population, based on a traditional belief that the evil eyes
of the numerators will kill their children or their animals, reflectsto
the enumerators very less number.
The administration of the logistics and man power in the traditional
method is very complex and the accumulative experienceof such
activity is very limited IN GENERAL(one census every 10 years).
Many enumeration areas may be missed, may not get the sufficient
forms or may not reached.

8. The first Population Census was done by the British, in 1955/1956 and
the enumerationwas completedina time span ofoneand a half years.
 There was an extensive use of the traditional administration (chiefs of
the tribes).Sampling was used to estimate the population in some
difficult areas in jungles of the south and the highly scattered
settlements in the Sahara. Also sampling was used to check the chiefs’
information whenthere is doubtabout its accuracy. The population was
10 millions.
The Sudan Case:1955/1956 Census

9. The second population census was conducted in 1973.
 The Total population in 1973 was 14.8 million. The preliminary
result was only 12.3 million which was very much less than expected.
 It was unfortunate that the enumeration failed at the beginning to
cover the labor camps in some Gezira areas, difficult areas in the
South and the scatteredNomads in the North.
 The results were rejected by the government and most of people and
it was forced to be adjusted after a post-enumeration survey.
The 1973 Census

10. Thethird populationcensus was conductedin1983.
 The total population which was 20.6 million had been also
adjusted to 19.1 million.
There were concerns about accuracy in the South and nomads
area dueto weak logistics.
It was noted that some enumerators who found it difficult to
walk for long distances had used the chiefs of the tribes or do
some guesses to fillthe forms onbehalf of the households.
The 1983 Census

11.  The fourth population census was performed in 1993 and came up with a total
populationof24.9millionwhichhad been adjusted later to 25.9 million.
 This count did not includethe rural areas in theSouth because of war.
 Moreover no comprehensive coverage of the nomads had taken place due to lack of
logistics.
 In the 4th Population Census the proportion of the nomads had come out to be only 3%
whileit was 11% in theprevious census.
 In addition an over count was noticed in some areas where inhabitants wanted to
increase theirsugar ration.
The 1993 Census

12.  The 2008 census was based on Sudan Comprehensive Peace
Agreement and therefor had god a lot of support from the
international community.
 But unfortunately serious drawbacks occurred during the
enumeration days. It was noted that the nomads who were
enumerated by their chiefs, were duplicated in certain areas
intentionally several times making use of the nomads move from
locality to locality.
The 2008 Census

13. Some chiefs also filled forms for their part of the tribe who are settled
intowns or outside their area.
 On the other hand it was noted that also some enumerators (who are
local teachers) filled the forms in their offices at the schools depending
ontheir memorizingknowledgeaboutthefamilies.
 Others pushed the households to increase their population sizes with
false information hoping to make advantages to their areas in services
and politicalrepresentation.
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14. Analysis and Discussion
The 1955/56 Population Census was the most accurate census in Sudan
compared withothers.
 It has become the standard base for all subsequent ones. All of them were
adjustedaccordingto thatcensus as notedabove.
We can easily see that all problems are coming from the highly scattered
nomadsatthe Saharaand reaching thedifficultjungles ofthe south.
 It is impossible for the enumerators to do full coverage within the
enumeration days, bearing on mind the bad infrastructure of the country in
general.

15. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 1993 1983 1973 1956
21
16.8
28.9
19.9
27
2008 1993 1983 1973 1956
South Sudan Percentages 1956-2008

16. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 1993 1983 1973 1956
Nomads Percentages
1956-1993
8 3 11 11.2 13.8
Nomads Percentages 1956-2008

17. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 1993 1983 1973 1956
Comparison Of States Nomads Population Percentages 1956-2008
Northen Eastren Khartoum Central Kordofan
Darfor Upper Nile Gazal Equabria

18. Locality
traditional Census
2008
Register based
population
% rate
Tulus(nomads) 308390 75215 %24.39
RhidelbredySemi Town 222021 101811 %45.86
Bram (nomads) 497952 146291 %29.38
Katila(nomads) 128743 50220 %39.01
ElrdomSemi Town 41999 17545 %41.77
Elsanta(nomads) 81878 20282 %24.77
Om Dafoqe(nomads) 66464 20748 %31.22
Ntiqa(nomads) 114875 22681 %19.74
Dumso(nomads) 242461 42121 %17.37
El wehda(nomads) 55631 10598 %19.05
Total 3320077 1967838 %59.27
FIGURE(4):South Darfur State traditional versus register population census

19. Locality
traditional
Census 2008
Register based
population
%rate
Halaib(nomads) 48045 7608 %15.84
Elqneb(nomads) 120299 18323 %15.23
Port Sudan Town 453411 508947 %112.25
Sawaken semi Town 90053 50818 %56.43
Senkat(nomads) 172988 53628 %31.00
Haya(nomads) 237775 32895 %13.83
Toker(nomads) 186654 51598 %27.64
Ageeg(nomads) 77785 23383 %30.06
JebetElmaaden(nomads) 70982 7767 %10.94
Derdeeb(nomads) 73427 22965 %31.28
Total 1531419 777932 %50.80
FIGURE(5):Red Sea State traditional versus register
population census

20. Thepopulationregister system has anopen timetoinsure full coverageandto
revise thequalityof information.
Itis linked withthedailylife services (health,education,police,courts,
passports,banks,social security…)whichwillforce citizens toregister.
Itis using finger printfor identificationand thatwill notallow anychanceof
fabricatedincrease.If anytribe orcommunitycomplainedaboutits population
size, itwill be challengedtobringmore members for registration andfinger
printif it hasany.
Itwillgive continuousupdatedresults aboutvitalstatisticsof thepopulation.
Thatis definitely moreaccuratecomparewiththeestimatedupdateusually
used in thetraditionalcensus.
Advantages of The population Register based System

21.  If we consider other official registers such as health,education, employment, pension,
business, housing,buildings and other social or economic data, we will findthem much
better compared withthestatics captured by theenumerators during theenumeration
process in the traditionalcensus.
 The official registers are based on information is revised by the people committeesat the
village level and revised again by the governmentadministrator at theadministrativeunit
level and by the locality senior administrators atthe locality level .
 Thenanalyzed by ministries at thestateor region level and at thecentral ministrylevel.
From theother side most of householdsas indicated earlier do not give correct or
accurate answers for a reason or anotherwhen asked about thesetypes of information.
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22.  Further, the good coverage of mobile and internet in most African countries (e.g.
population coverage in Sudan nearly 90%) and the large development in I.C.T. in
generalwillallowfor onlineupdateofpopulationregisteror otherregisters data.
 In Sudan, for example the population registers system, which is run by the ministry of
interior, has good computer facilities and is gradually building up a social or an
administrativenetworktocover thewholecountry for vitaldataupdate.
 It is worth mentioning that the national information center (N.I.C.) of Sudan has a
computerized system based on the U.N. socio-economic and the S.D.G. indicators,
called the states statistical system, to collect and analyze data from the village level .
The system is using cloud technology and is connecting all localities to the N.I.C. data
center.This systemrepresentsanon lineupdatetothefederalministersinformation.
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23. Despite of all those advantages of register based census over the traditional one,
we can’tsay that itis perfect or itwillguarantee fullcoverage andfullaccuracy.
 For the case of Sudan for example, still a lot of effort is needed to complete and
improve the social or administrative network in registering vital data events. Also
many localities need a lot of follow up and pressure to update their information
on time andmake fulluse of thestate’sstatisticalsystem.
 However, in all circumstances we can easily measure the gaps in coverage or
accuracy and can easily put a time table plan for measurable improvements in
the case of civil registration and official statistics method. That is very difficult in
the case ofthe traditional method.
Challenges of Register Based Census

24. Conclusion
 It is shown in thispaper thatdue to many challengessuch as budgetlimitation,bad
infrastructure, a wide distribution of population, lack of populationawareness or interestto
reflect correct information,administrativecomplexity, lack in logistics and lack of staff
experiences all most allcensuses in Sudan and many African countries using traditional
methodhave failed.
 It is also shown thatit is extremely difficultor even impossible to overcome those challenges
usingtraditional methods in the present situationof most African countries.
 It is furthershown thatregister based method is in a better position to deal with such
challengesand give far better census results.

25.  Inadditionthe base register method has the advantage of onlineor
highfrequent update of information and that willrespond to the
needsof many other stakeholders requiringinformation for example
about S.DGs,unemployment,childand mother mortality or others.
 The intelligentuse of I.C.T. is a main factor for the register based
census success.
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26. Thanks a lot