1. OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 2015 / 19
feature
To outsiders, Canada can be a dull and stodgy place. As a
country we enjoy a high standard of living, an unparalleled
social cohesion and a fiscal ledger that while no longer the
envy of the industrialized world still affords us membership in
the G7 group of nations. For the most part the world pays
little attention to us. Yet we seem to like it that way. Inside of
Canada, there is recognition that our politics are opaque.
Beyond the echo chambers of Parliament Hill and Queen’s
Park, people seem more concerned about the inferior
offering of Canadian Netflix than they do about, say, electoral
reform.
The decision by the federal government to abandon the
mandatory long-form census managed to wed these
perspectives. Inside those echo chambers there was a sense
that this was a very ill-advised manoeuvre. To those outside
looking in, it was the political equivalent of three-down
football. However, just because Canadians reacted exactly as
you would expect it, doesn’t mean that there were not
important implications for how business is done in this
country. For local governments the negative impacts were
considerable. In a world of big data, the census was the
biggest data of them all. From New France through today, the
census has been a foundation of sound government. The
decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census is one that
should concern every municipality in Canada.
Canada’s Long-Standing Census History
Census-taking has a long-standing place in Canadian history
and pre-dates Confederation. The first census undertaken in
what is now Canada was carried out by Jean Talon in 1666. As
Intendant of New France, Talon was tasked by French King
Louis XIV to stimulate economic expansion, increase the
colony’s self-sufficiency, and bring order to its financial
administration. Talon knew that in order to develop the
proper policies to achieve his goals, he needed to have the
right information to do so.
In the winter of 1666-67, he began this endeavour. Talon’s
census recorded all colonial citizens’ name, age, occupation,
marital status, and relationship to the head of the family in
which they lived. The census also measured the wealth of
industry and agriculture, the value of local lumber and mineral
BY THOMAS BARAKAT
Policy & Research, OGRA
The Death of Public
Data in Canada
In a world of big data, the census
was the biggest data of them all.
From New France through today,
the census has been a foundation of
sound government. The decision to
scrap the mandatory long-form
census is one that should concern
every municipality in Canada.

2. 20 / OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 2015
resources, and the number of domestic animals, seigneuries,
government buildings, and churches. Collecting this data
was not an easy task for Talon as he physically went door-to-
door during New France’s harsh winter. However, his efforts
bore fruit. In a period where surviving the winter was a
challenge, diseases such as scurvy and smallpox were
prevalent, and constant violent confrontation with Aboriginal
peoples was normal, the population of the colony managed
to grow from 3,200 people to 7,600 by 1672.
How did he achieve his desired results? When Talon
quantified the gender imbalance of the colony, he was then
able to develop various policies to promote marriage and the
bearing of children. He arranged for approximately 900
young French women, known as the filles du roi, to immigrate
to New France as part of a program sponsored by Louis XIV.
He also used financial incentives: each young woman who
married received 50 livres (the currency of New France) in
household supplies and provisions while those who married
by age twenty received an additional 20 livres. Furthermore,
families who had ten children were entitled to a pension of
three hundred livres annually while those with twelve
received four hundred.
As the Intendant of New France, Talon did more than just
increase the population; he managed the finances as well as
the infrastructure of the colony. His responsibilities included
everything from taxes to healthcare, and from bridge-building
to chimney sweeping. As his census also measured the
wealth of industry and agriculture, he was able to help
diversify the economy from one primarily based in the fur
trade by establishing local industries. Under Jean-Baptiste
Colbert’s administration, he encouraged the building of
manufactories for wool products, textiles, and domestic
crafts. He also helped establish a shipyard, a brewery, a shoe
factory, sawmills, and a tannery. Talon stimulated the lumber
trade while encouraging immigrants to settle and establish
farms along the St. Lawrence River by giving them free tools
to clear the land. These efforts could not have been achieved
so effectively without the data that he had collected. It is no
wonder he braved the harsh Quebec winter of 1666-67 to
gather this information.
The Tragic Death of the Mandatory Long-Form
Census
Fast-forward to 2010: The federal government led by
Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper eliminated the
most important data-gathering tool in the country, the
mandatory long-form census. It was replaced by the voluntary
National Household Survey (NHS), a more expensive and less
effective tool for policymakers. The reasons behind this move
were purely political and they are a fine example of why many
have tuned out their representatives in Parliament. The
response rate for the mandatory long-form version of the
census had been 93.5%; whereas under the shorter,
voluntary version, it plummeted to 68.6%. Although the
voluntary version was sent out to more people, it received
significantly lower response rates particularly from mid-sized
cities, small communities, rural areas, aboriginals, immigrants,
and lower-income Canadians. The 2011 census and NHS
cost $29 million more than the 2006 version. It’s difficult to
justify spending more to receive less in any industry, let alone
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“Decisions need to be made, so they are going to get made,
whether you have bad data or good data. If you have bad data,
you’re going to make bad policy decisions. –Munir Sheikh.
”

3. OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 2015 / 21
feature
one that is funded by the general public. Some areas
received so few responses that the data collected needed to
be suppressed. Above, Map 1 details the suppressed census
subdivisions (CSDs) in black. Approximately 25% of
geographic areas do not have reliable NHS data available for
their use.
The costs don’t end there. Developing policy based on
spotty data will only cost Canadians more over time. If
policymakers cannot identify negative trends and attempt to
prevent them from growing into large-scale issues, it will be
costlier to develop solutions after-the-fact. Preventative policy
is cheaper than reactionary policy. Secondly, if policymakers
are tasked with developing a solution to a perceived problem
but aren’t in possession of data which accurately reflects the
situation at hand, then policies developed will either be
attempting to solve the wrong problem or will be completely
off target in terms of measuring the perceived problem.
Policy outcomes would also be distorted as policymakers
could have a flawed idea of what a successful outcome
should be. Furthermore, valuable resources could be wasted
in areas where they aren’t needed. Put simply, policymaking
without accurate and complete data is an enormous waste of
public money.
“Decisions need to be made, so they are going to get
made, whether you have bad data or good data. If you
have bad data, you’re going to make bad policy
decisions.” –Munir Sheikh
Why spend more to get less? The
government’s reasoning behind
eliminating the mandatory long-form
census was that it violated the privacy of
Canadian citizens by forcing them to
complete it. Then-Industry Minister Tony
Clement went on the record saying that
public complaints about being forced to
complete the census had consistently
gone up. However, in a 2010 interview,
Ivan Fellegi, Canada’s chief statistician
from 1985-2008, argued that the
opposite had actually occurred and that
Canada’s privacy commissioner had
received just three complaints in the last
ten years regarding the census. Clement
also argued that Statistics Canada actually
recommended the switch to the voluntary National
Household Survey. That is highly unlikely as the chief
statistician at the time, Munir Sheikh, actually resigned in
protest of the government’s decision to abolish the
mandatory long-form census. He went on the record stating:
“I want to take this opportunity to comment on a technical
statistical issue which has become the subject of media
discussion...the question of whether a voluntary survey can
become a substitute for a mandatory census. It can not.”
The Canadian public lost access to reliable data that cannot
be replaced by private data mining or consumer-type data as
the private sector does not survey the entire populace like the
mandatory long-form census did. The surveys that Statistics
Canada carries out are universal and thus the information
reflects the entire population. Data is also collected in a
consistent manner making it extremely reliable. However,
once responding to the long-form portion of the survey
became voluntary, all that was lost. Sheikh has also gone on
the record to state:
“Voluntary surveys are simply a waste of money, they
cannot provide you the kind of accurate information that
you need to make your policy decisions. So in my view, this
is the worst of both worlds.”
Earlier this year, Liberal MP Ted Hsu introduced a private
member’s bill to bring back the long-form census and
strengthen the independence of Canada’s chief statistician.
Bill C-626 received support from the opposition benches,
Source: University of Waterloo

4. 22 / OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 2015
but the government response was that they were opposed to
the core principles of the bill as it would “legally compel
Canadians to answer intrusive questions.” A strong and
diverse consensus to restore the mandatory long-form census
prevails amongst researchers, planners, business groups, bar
associations, NGOs, and a diverse set of think tanks.
Municipalities: The Big Losers
Along with those researchers, planners, business groups, bar
associations, NGOs, think tanks, and pretty much the entire
Canadian populace, municipalities are also big losers in the
post-mandatory long-form census world. The level of
government which most impacts the day-to-day lives of
citizens has essentially been robbed of reliable data which
allows them to properly plan and deliver services.
Developing policies and services relating to land use
planning, transportation/transit, social services, education,
healthcare/EMS, newcomer services, childcare, and
affordable housing has become a more challenging process.
However, as Mel Cappe, then-President of the Institute for
Research on Public Policy and former Clerk of the Privy
Council pointed out, it’s average citizens who are most
impacted:
“It’s not a bunch of policy wonks. This is real people being
affected by this…urban planners use the census results to
identify where to put in roads, where to put in sewers,
where to put in schools. That’s pretty valuable stuff. You
need to know a lot of detail to get an understanding of
what kind of facilities to put in.”
The quality of census data is affecting municipalities of all sizes
from major metropolises to mid-sized cities to small rural
towns.
Major Metropolis: The City of Toronto
Toronto had a response rate of 77.6% (considered high by
NHS standards) to the voluntary portion of the survey. Like
many municipalities, Toronto provides subsidized childcare
for low-income families. Subsidies are distributed based on
the number of low-income families on a ward-by-ward basis.
If a ward has 5% of the city’s low-income families, then 5% of
the subsidies would be allocated to that ward. However,
since lower-income families are less likely to respond to the
census, the reality on the ground will not be accurately
reflected in the data received in the voluntary NHS.
Consequently, when census data is used to direct the
above-mentioned subsidies, those wards with a higher
concentration of low-income families won’t receive the
appropriate amount of funding. Those most in need will not
fully benefit from the city’s childcare subsidy policy. In a
recent interview, Harvey Low, the Manager of Social Research
and Analysis for the City of Toronto, claimed that the city now
spends more time inspecting and analyzing the quality of the
data instead of the actual content of it, which raises costs.
Mid-Sized City: The City of Peterborough
The City of Peterborough, which has a population of
123,000, had a particularly troubling 36% response rate to
the voluntary National Household Survey – the lowest
response rate of all Canadian cities. It has become a
challenge for public health officials as they have lost
important data relating to its population’s health. For
example, officials are no longer aware of the number of
children affected by specific illnesses and diseases. Since
Peterborough does not have room in its budget to complete
its own public health survey, the city is forced to use nearly 10
year-old data, from the 2006 census. The gap in the data will
only continue to grow and cost the city more in the long-run.
Small Towns and Townships
There is even more volatility in the data received under the
NHS when looking at the results for smaller towns and
townships. As these areas don’t have access to any of the
comparative data sources (other than the 2006 census)
enjoyed by some of the larger metropolitan areas, it is even
more difficult to verify the accuracy of their NHS data. Small
towns and townships rely on accurate census data the most
as it is the sole survey that uniformly gathers information for
their small sample sizes. If a town were to gather this data on
its own, officials would either need to hire a consultant, form
research groups, or allocate staff to visit the communities and
gather the data. Most small municipalities don’t have room in
their budgets or enough staff for such activities.
Losing the mandatory long-form census was a double
whammy for municipalities of all sizes. Not only was valuable
data for policy purposes lost, but so was a valuable tool to
argue for federal funding. The census was able to deliver
concrete information showing the federal government where
municipalities needed the most help. Prior to being elected
Mayor of Caledon, then-Councillor Allan Thompson argued:

5. OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 2015 / 23
“A lot of the time when we go to tell them what our
concerns are, the first thing the bureaucrats say to us is
‘prove it’…without hard facts, it will be easier now for
bureaucrats to rebuff demands.”
Perhaps the federal government is content with such an
outcome. From a policy perspective, the elimination of
statistical evidence means the problem doesn’t exist and thus
no funds must be spent to address it.
Municipal Censuses
Could municipalities fill the void left behind by the federal
government? Although “Census and Statistics” is listed as a
federal power under Section 91 of the Constitution Act, 1982,
Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon, and Nunavut have passed
legislation allowing municipalities to conduct civic censuses.
Calgary and Edmonton are the most prominent cities who
have utilized this tool. Calgary first began conducting a civic
census in 1931, while Edmonton’s dates back to 1892. The
civic censuses conducted by these two cities are far less
comprehensive than Statistics Canada’s cancelled mandatory
long-form, but do ask questions relating to employment
status and commuting.
Figure 1 provides a complete list of questions asked by the
City of Edmonton in their most recent census.
Civic censuses in Calgary and Edmonton were conducted
prior to the cancellation of the mandatory long-form census,
but occurred more frequently than the five year interval of the
federal census in order to keep data relevant on important
measures such as population size. Calgary currently conducts
a census annually, while Edmonton conducts one biennially.
The information collected in these censuses helps municipal
leaders make informed decisions regarding transportation,
recreation, and many other city services.
Alberta’s Municipal Government Act is the enabling legislation
which allows municipalities to conduct civic censuses.
Ontario’s Municipal Act contains no such clause. As the
Government of Ontario mulls re-opening the Act later this
year, perhaps the addition of a clause allowing for civic
censuses should be considered. Municipalities, as a
responsible order of government, should have the right to
decide whether such an activity should be conducted within
their boundaries or not. If a municipality is lacking data in a
certain sector, as for example Peterborough is lacking in its
public health data, it could decide to survey its residents on
this topic. If the Province takes a decentralized approach it
would allow each municipality to decide for itself what type of
data it would need to gather, if any at all. This would be an
improvement over the status quo, which completely
handcuffs municipalities in this regard.
Moving Forward
As opposition parties have failed in their attempts to restore
the mandatory long-form census, it is apparent that such a
restoration will not happen under the current federal
government. Unfortunately, the only option left for the many
municipalities, researchers, planners, business groups, bar
associations, NGOs, and think tanks hoping to see the
census restored is to elect a new government in this fall’s
federal election. If such an outcome were to occur, it would
likely be too late for the mandatory long-form census to be
re-instated in time for the 2016 survey. Thus, a major data gap
measuring the well-being of the country would exist between
2006 and 2021. Jean Talon would be appalled to learn that
such a gap was voluntarily created by representatives whose
constitutional duty is to provide peace, order, and good
government.
feature
Losing the mandatory long-form census was a double whammy for municipalities of all
sizes. Not only was valuable data for policy purposes lost, but so was a valuable tool to
argue for federal funding. The census was able to deliver concrete information showing
the federal government where municipalities needed the most help.

6. 24 / OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 201524 / OGRA MILESTONES SUMMER 2015
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Figure 1: City of Edmonton Civic Census Questions