The document summarizes the Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) project which aims to improve food security in China by linking climate adaptation and agriculture. The project uses an interdisciplinary approach across physical, biological and socioeconomic factors. It identifies vulnerabilities and risks of climate change to agriculture, water resources, and socioeconomics in three Chinese regions. Stakeholders then prioritize adaptation options. The results inform China's national and provincial climate adaptation strategies and policies.

1. Adapting to Climate Change and Enhancing
Food Security in China
气候变化适应和增强中国粮食安全
ICCCFS Conference, Beijing, 2011-11-8
Yongyuan Yin, Xu Yinlong, Emanuele Cuccillato, Ellen Kelley, Pan, X.B.,
Wang, G.Q. and Declan Conway

2. Outline
Introduction: CC and FS
Climate adaptation: linking CC and FS
ACCC project: interdisciplinary and IA
概要 Project activities and achievements
Science and policy integration
Conclusions

3. “On a global level, increasingly unpredictable weather
patterns will lead to falling agricultural production and
higher food prices, leading to food insecurity”
The Committee on World Food Security (CFS) requested to
“review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of
climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the
most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the
interface between climate change and agricultural productivity,
including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and
mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition”.
UNFCCC Secretary, 15 February 2011

4. Importance of Food Security (FS) in China
• The concern about China’s food security or the ability to
feed itself. While Brown (1995; 2004), on the one hand,
warns that the rising dependence on grain imports in China
might affect the global food price significantly, others argue
that China is capable of producing enough grain it needs in
the 21st century (Rosegrant et al., 1995; Song, 1997).
• China is facing with considerable annual fluctuations of
food production caused by climate variations and hazards.
For example, in 1998 China produced 392 million tons of
grain, but saw significant reductions in production in four of
the following five years. In 2003, grain production was 326
million tons, a drop of more than 60 million tons in five
years.

5. The Necessity of Linking CC and FS
• Under climate change, periods of drought are
likely to become more frequent and severe;
• Water shortage, already a problem in China,
may be exacerbated by climate change; and
water shortages will further affect food
production;
• In addition, decreases in water availability and
food production would lead to indirect impacts
on human health.

6. ACCC Project: A Study to Improve FS
• The “Adapting to Climate Change in China”
(ACCC) project provides a new way of thinking to
link agricultural production with several climate
stressors, which influence interactively food security
and rural sustainability.
• This presentation focuses on ACCC project
activities related to agricultural sector vulnerability
and risks to climate variation and change, climate
adaptation policies to reduce risks in food security.

7. • Major climate change adaptation project
• China – UK – Swiss collaboration
• NDRC main Chinese partner
• 3 year project, June 2009-2012-
• 48,000,000 RMB total
• An integrated and interdisciplinary approach (IA)
which integrates major physical, biological, and
socio-economic components of the whole climate
change domain (ACCC, 2011)

8. ACCC Research Framework
1. Scoping Study 2. Climate Science Climate
(Identify problems) Science
3. Vulnerability Assessment：
•Physical/ Ecological vulnerabilities Vulnerability &
6. Outcome communication • Socio-economic vulnerabilities Risk
& information sharing •Institutional vulnerabilities
Assessment
5. Adaptation Planning 4. Climate Risk Assessment
(Climate scenarios) Adaptation
•Identify adaptation option
•Analyze/ Assess adaptation option (Socio-economic scenarios) Planning
•Policy prioritization and recommendation

9. Key Principles of ACCC 项目原则
• 合作——汇集中外专家专业知识
• Collaborative project – bringing together Chinese and international
expertise
• 将气候变化作为跨领域问题研究
• Climate change as cross-sectoral issue
• 提高恢复能力，降低风险
• Reducing climate risks by building resilience
• 将适应对策即规划作为重点
• Focus on adaptation options and planning
• 关注脆弱群体，如贫困社区、妇女和儿童
• Focus on vulnerable groups e.g. poor communities, women & children
• 与其它国家进行知识分享
• Knowledge-sharing with other countries

10. Study Regions: China and Three Cases
Case：Inner Mongolia
Case：NingXia
Case：Guangdong

11. Flow-chart of the ACCC project CC-FS research methodology
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Multi-stakeholder
consultation
SD Goals
Adaptive capacity
Water D Food D HANPP assessment
Criteria Adaptation options
V = f(S，D)
inventory
Water Food Supply NPP Adaptation options
availability prioritization rank
Hydrology Crop Models CENTRUY Model
models NAS
Climate Change Scenarios

12. CC scenarios - improve development of and access to climate
change science in China 促进中国的气候变化情景设计
•CMA and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural •国家气象局及中国农科院 (及HC)
Sciences (CAAS) cooperated with HC/UK • 以ECHAM5/MPI_OM和HadCM3
• RegCM4 and PRECIS driven by GCM驱动的RegCM4及PRECIS
ECHAM5/MPI_OM and HadCM3 •CMIP3集合中中国地区的结果可
• Results from the CMIP3 ensemble over China 提供有益的背景，作为分析CMIP5
provides useful background. This could form the 集合中GCM的基础或指导
•气候变化情景网站建设
basis of, or guide, the analysis of the GCMs from
the CMIP5 ensemble
www.climatechange-data.cn
•Climate change scenario website building.

13. Change of annual mean temperature in CORDEX-East Asia
during the mid-21st century (unit: ℃)
Left: RegCM-ECHAM5 simulation; Right: RegCM-HADCM simulation)

14. Change of annual mean precipitation in CORDEX-East Asia
during the mid-21st century (unit: %)
Left: RegCM-ECHAM5 simulation; Right: RegCM-HADCM simulation)

15. Comprehensive risk assessments, based upon vulnerability and CC impacts
气候变化脆弱性及影响的全面风险评估 – 对农、牧、水资源的影响
Agriculture: cropping 农业
•Extreme weather events (1961-2000); •极端天气 (1961-2000);
•Vulnerability analysis – Ningxia case. •脆弱性分析 – 宁夏
Grassland and Livestock 草原及畜牧
•CENTURY Model Calibration; •CENTURY模型校准;
•Simulated changes of aboveground productivity in •北方草原地上生产力变化模拟 (2040,
Northern Grassland (2040, 2070, 2100); 2070, 2100);
•Grassland vulnerability assessment; •草原脆弱性评估;
•Initial evaluation of grassland impact. •草原影响初步评估
Water Resources 水资源
•Changes of runoffs in the next 50 years; •未来50年径流变化;
•Response of groundwater in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain •黄淮海平原地下水随气候变化的变化
to Climate Change. 情况
Changes CDD in China (1961-2000) Simulated changes of aboveground
productivity (1981-2008) Annual Runoff change (2021-2050) over the Baseline Period

16. Socio-economic impacts and risk assessments
气候变化社会经济脆弱性及影响风险评估
CASS 中国社科院
•Fieldwork in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for •宁夏和内蒙进行实地脆弱性评估;
vulnerability assessment; •国家社会经济情景 (SES).
国家减灾中心
•The national socio-economic scenario (SES).
•建立气候变化灾害风险评估框架；
NDRCC •完成中国1978至2009年及广东省1991至
•Framework of disaster risk assessment in climate 2009年气候灾害损失评估;
change; •绘制中国历史自然灾害地图；及
•Climate disaster loss assessment; and •筹备编制气候灾害风险地图。
•Climate disaster risk maps.
Typhoon risk distribution (crop and economic loss) Rate of crop area suffered to droughts (1991-2000)

17. Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: GD
气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 广东
• Current and future climate extremes • 目前及未来极端气候对农业及经济的影响;
impacts on crops and the economy; • 目前气候灾害造成的农作物及经济损失及
• Current economic losses (crop) to 防灾;
• 气候变化对广东水资源的影响；
climate hazards and disaster prevention;
• 广东省对暴雨的脆弱性的研究。
• The impacts of CC on water resources;
• Vulnerabilities to rainstorms.
Spatial Distribution of Vulnerability
Rate of crop area suffered to typhoon (2001) to Rainstorm in Guangdong

18. Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: IM
气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 内蒙
• Hydrological and grassland simulation •水文及草原模拟评估气候变化影响;
for assessing the impacts of CC; •气候对于牧民生计影响入户调查;
• Household surveys on climate impacts •评估畜牧业对于干旱的脆弱性，根据指
on herdsmen’s livelihood; 标采用综合性方法确定当前的畜牧业对
干旱的脆弱性。
• Vulnerability assessment of livestock
vulnerability to droughts.
Legend
Green: low vulnerability
Yellow: medium vulnerability
Brown: high vulnerability

19. Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: NX
气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 宁夏
•Agriculture: future climate change trend
and risks to drought;
• Water: future impacts of CC scenarios on
precipitation in NX;
• Relations between CC and desertification.
农业：未来气候变化趋势及农业对干
旱灾害的风险;
水资源: 未来气候变化情景对宁夏降水
的影响;
气候变化与沙漠化间的关系
Agricultural drought risk

20. Identify desirable adaptation options which could be
used to reduce water vulnerability to climate change
Inventory of climate
change vulnerabilities
and adaptation options
for water sector RANKING:
1. Water allocation plans
2. Water use permit
3. Water saving technology
4. Water demand management
Relative Importance Scale
Adaptation Option 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 Adaptation Option
Price Adjustment X Water Management Prioritized ranking of
Price Adjustment X New technologies
Price Adjustment X Research & Education options, indicating
overall preference
AHP multi-criteria
evaluation of options
by stakeholders using
survey

21. Applying AHP in adaptation option prioritization
• The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method
has been used to prioritize alternative adaptation
measures or options;
• Policy meetings have been held to identify
sustainability indicators by water resource
managers and farmers; and
• AHP surveys have been arranged with
questionnaire to allow stakeholders and experts
to evaluate adaptation options in the water sector
in three case regions.

22. List of potential agricultural adaptation options (许吟隆，2010)

23. List of potential agricultural adaptation options (许吟隆，2010)

24. Sample AHP comparison table: water system
Adaptation Option Relative Effectiveness Scale Adaptation Option
5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5
Reform crop structure x water use permit and water
trade system
Reform crop structure x Construct water works
Reform crop structure x Establish farm water users’
society or committee
Reform crop structure x Adopt advanced water use
technologies
Reform crop structure x Governments set water price
Reform crop structure x Improve water allocation
policies
Reform crop structure x Increase water save
awareness and education

25. ACCC Project: facilitates and enables NAS
Climate disasters and Driving
International responsibility,
risks, economic losses
UNFCCC forces
NDRC: Design national climate change Media
adaptation strategy and NGOs
Facilitating
Sufficient knowledge
Effective adaptation options factors
and information
identified and available
available
Design provincial adaptation
CAAS and CRCPP have
Provincial-level teams been appointed by NDRC
plans options
contributed to “12th to draft “China’s
five-year plan” Climate Change
Adaptation Mid-to-Long
Term Strategy”
ACCC Project: research, communication,
training, stakeholders engagement,
sufficient expertise and policy makers

26. Adaptation Planning and Policy-National Level
适应规划及政策 – 国家层面
• Operating in the context of the development of China’s
12th 5 Year Plan (5YP)
• including a chapter on climate change;
• including a specific section on adaptation for the first
time;
• mandating the development of a National Adaptation
Strategy (NAS).
• ACCC partners and researchers have been asked by the
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
to support the development of the NAS.
• A panel of 8 experts has been established to draft the
strategy, of whom 4 are key ACCC experts.

27. Adaptation Planning and Policy-Provincial Level
适应规划及政策 – 省级层面
• Results from ACCC provincial work 广东
will also be used to inform adaptation
• 进行广东省流域生态补偿个案
strategy development.
研究;
• ACCC partners in three pilot • 完成气候变化对于广东省水资
provinces (Guangdong, Inner 源及适应战略影响的研究报告;
Mongolia and Ningxia) have made • 完成广东适应气候变化战略及
specific policy recommendations to 重点行动报告;
local officials.
内蒙
• They have also significantly • 省内专家级政策制定者就脆弱
contributed to the development of the 性评估及确定适应对策进行会
provincial 12th 5-Year Plans through 商;
consultancy reports focusing
宁夏
specifically on climate change impacts
and adaptation. • 生态补偿(PES)报告;
• 开展生态移民项目。

28. Summary: ACCC success checklist 小结：ACCC成绩检查表
Research 研究 Policy 政策
• Tested methodologies • ACCC influence in 12th 5YP / National
• Collaboration (Chinese / International) Adaptation Strategy / CC Law
• Integration (physical / social & • Evidence-based policy – tested &
provincial / national) practiced
• Credibility • Integrated approach reflected in policy
• Publications • Provincial policy (IM, NX & GD) based
• Model improvement on ACCC work (roadmap)
DFID Research DECC, SDC, NDRC
Capacity-building International Impact
• Core group of officials & researchers • Case studies & experience shared pro-
confident in CCA concepts & policy actively
• Key stakeholders aware of CCA • Enhanced understanding & reputation
• Progress towards CCA mainstreaming of China on CCA
CCA into planning & investments • Extensive international publications
SDC • Basis established for long-term
partnerships
DFID China, NDRC, DFID Research

29. Acknowledgement
• The participation of this conference has
been made possible through the financial
support of the ACCC project;
• I would like to express my grateful Adapting to Climate Change in China
acknowledgement to many ACCC http://www.ccadaptation.org.cn/en/index.aspx
researchers for their contributions;
• Thank conference organization committee
for inviting me to attend the meeting;
• The ACCC project is funded by DFID,
DECC, and SDC
• 对出资方为ACCC项目提供资助和支持表示感谢!
• 感谢各级领导、专家学者、NGO及项目组成员的大
力支持和努力！
•向各位参会成员表示感谢!