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Yin Yongyuan — Adapting to climate change and enhancing food security in china


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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Yin Yongyuan — Adapting to climate change and enhancing food security in china

  1. 1. Adapting to Climate Change and Enhancing Food Security in China 气候变化适应和增强中国粮食安全 ICCCFS Conference, Beijing, 2011-11-8Yongyuan Yin, Xu Yinlong, Emanuele Cuccillato, Ellen Kelley, Pan, X.B.,Wang, G.Q. and Declan Conway
  2. 2. Outline Introduction: CC and FS Climate adaptation: linking CC and FS ACCC project: interdisciplinary and IA概要 Project activities and achievements Science and policy integration Conclusions
  3. 3. “On a global level, increasingly unpredictable weatherpatterns will lead to falling agricultural production andhigher food prices, leading to food insecurity”The Committee on World Food Security (CFS) requested to“review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects ofclimate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on themost affected and vulnerable regions and populations and theinterface between climate change and agricultural productivity,including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation andmitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition”. UNFCCC Secretary, 15 February 2011
  4. 4. Importance of Food Security (FS) in China• The concern about China’s food security or the ability to feed itself. While Brown (1995; 2004), on the one hand, warns that the rising dependence on grain imports in China might affect the global food price significantly, others argue that China is capable of producing enough grain it needs in the 21st century (Rosegrant et al., 1995; Song, 1997).• China is facing with considerable annual fluctuations of food production caused by climate variations and hazards. For example, in 1998 China produced 392 million tons of grain, but saw significant reductions in production in four of the following five years. In 2003, grain production was 326 million tons, a drop of more than 60 million tons in five years.
  5. 5. The Necessity of Linking CC and FS• Under climate change, periods of drought arelikely to become more frequent and severe;• Water shortage, already a problem in China,may be exacerbated by climate change; andwater shortages will further affect foodproduction;• In addition, decreases in water availability andfood production would lead to indirect impactson human health.
  6. 6. ACCC Project: A Study to Improve FS• The “Adapting to Climate Change in China”(ACCC) project provides a new way of thinking tolink agricultural production with several climatestressors, which influence interactively food securityand rural sustainability.• This presentation focuses on ACCC projectactivities related to agricultural sector vulnerabilityand risks to climate variation and change, climateadaptation policies to reduce risks in food security.
  7. 7. • Major climate change adaptation project• China – UK – Swiss collaboration• NDRC main Chinese partner• 3 year project, June 2009-2012-• 48,000,000 RMB total• An integrated and interdisciplinary approach (IA) which integrates major physical, biological, and socio-economic components of the whole climate change domain (ACCC, 2011)
  8. 8. ACCC Research Framework 1. Scoping Study 2. Climate Science Climate (Identify problems) Science 3. Vulnerability Assessment: •Physical/ Ecological vulnerabilities Vulnerability &6. Outcome communication • Socio-economic vulnerabilities Risk & information sharing •Institutional vulnerabilities Assessment 5. Adaptation Planning 4. Climate Risk Assessment (Climate scenarios) Adaptation •Identify adaptation option •Analyze/ Assess adaptation option (Socio-economic scenarios) Planning •Policy prioritization and recommendation
  9. 9. Key Principles of ACCC 项目原则• 合作——汇集中外专家专业知识• Collaborative project – bringing together Chinese and international expertise• 将气候变化作为跨领域问题研究• Climate change as cross-sectoral issue• 提高恢复能力,降低风险• Reducing climate risks by building resilience• 将适应对策即规划作为重点• Focus on adaptation options and planning• 关注脆弱群体,如贫困社区、妇女和儿童• Focus on vulnerable groups e.g. poor communities, women & children• 与其它国家进行知识分享• Knowledge-sharing with other countries
  10. 10. Study Regions: China and Three CasesCase:Inner Mongolia Case:NingXia Case:Guangdong
  11. 11. Flow-chart of the ACCC project CC-FS research methodology Socio-Economic Scenarios Multi-stakeholder consultation SD Goals Adaptive capacity Water D Food D HANPP assessment Criteria Adaptation options V = f(S,D) inventory Water Food Supply NPP Adaptation options availability prioritization rank Hydrology Crop Models CENTRUY Model models NAS Climate Change Scenarios
  12. 12. CC scenarios - improve development of and access to climate change science in China 促进中国的气候变化情景设计•CMA and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural •国家气象局及中国农科院 (及HC)Sciences (CAAS) cooperated with HC/UK • 以ECHAM5/MPI_OM和HadCM3• RegCM4 and PRECIS driven by GCM驱动的RegCM4及PRECISECHAM5/MPI_OM and HadCM3 •CMIP3集合中中国地区的结果可• Results from the CMIP3 ensemble over China 提供有益的背景,作为分析CMIP5provides useful background. This could form the 集合中GCM的基础或指导 •气候变化情景网站建设basis of, or guide, the analysis of the GCMs fromthe CMIP5 ensemble•Climate change scenario website building.
  13. 13. Change of annual mean temperature in CORDEX-East Asiaduring the mid-21st century (unit: ℃) Left: RegCM-ECHAM5 simulation; Right: RegCM-HADCM simulation)
  14. 14. Change of annual mean precipitation in CORDEX-East Asiaduring the mid-21st century (unit: %)Left: RegCM-ECHAM5 simulation; Right: RegCM-HADCM simulation)
  15. 15. Comprehensive risk assessments, based upon vulnerability and CC impacts气候变化脆弱性及影响的全面风险评估 – 对农、牧、水资源的影响Agriculture: cropping 农业•Extreme weather events (1961-2000); •极端天气 (1961-2000);•Vulnerability analysis – Ningxia case. •脆弱性分析 – 宁夏Grassland and Livestock 草原及畜牧•CENTURY Model Calibration; •CENTURY模型校准;•Simulated changes of aboveground productivity in •北方草原地上生产力变化模拟 (2040,Northern Grassland (2040, 2070, 2100); 2070, 2100);•Grassland vulnerability assessment; •草原脆弱性评估;•Initial evaluation of grassland impact. •草原影响初步评估Water Resources 水资源•Changes of runoffs in the next 50 years; •未来50年径流变化;•Response of groundwater in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain •黄淮海平原地下水随气候变化的变化to Climate Change. 情况Changes CDD in China (1961-2000) Simulated changes of aboveground productivity (1981-2008) Annual Runoff change (2021-2050) over the Baseline Period
  16. 16. Socio-economic impacts and risk assessments 气候变化社会经济脆弱性及影响风险评估CASS 中国社科院•Fieldwork in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for •宁夏和内蒙进行实地脆弱性评估;vulnerability assessment; •国家社会经济情景 (SES). 国家减灾中心•The national socio-economic scenario (SES). •建立气候变化灾害风险评估框架;NDRCC •完成中国1978至2009年及广东省1991至•Framework of disaster risk assessment in climate 2009年气候灾害损失评估;change; •绘制中国历史自然灾害地图;及•Climate disaster loss assessment; and •筹备编制气候灾害风险地图。•Climate disaster risk maps. Typhoon risk distribution (crop and economic loss) Rate of crop area suffered to droughts (1991-2000)
  17. 17. Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: GD 气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 广东• Current and future climate extremes • 目前及未来极端气候对农业及经济的影响;impacts on crops and the economy; • 目前气候灾害造成的农作物及经济损失及• Current economic losses (crop) to 防灾; • 气候变化对广东水资源的影响;climate hazards and disaster prevention; • 广东省对暴雨的脆弱性的研究。• The impacts of CC on water resources;• Vulnerabilities to rainstorms. Spatial Distribution of Vulnerability Rate of crop area suffered to typhoon (2001) to Rainstorm in Guangdong
  18. 18. Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: IM 气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 内蒙• Hydrological and grassland simulation •水文及草原模拟评估气候变化影响;for assessing the impacts of CC; •气候对于牧民生计影响入户调查;• Household surveys on climate impacts •评估畜牧业对于干旱的脆弱性,根据指on herdsmen’s livelihood; 标采用综合性方法确定当前的畜牧业对 干旱的脆弱性。• Vulnerability assessment of livestockvulnerability to droughts. Legend Green: low vulnerability Yellow: medium vulnerability Brown: high vulnerability
  19. 19. Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: NX 气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 宁夏•Agriculture: future climate change trendand risks to drought;• Water: future impacts of CC scenarios onprecipitation in NX;• Relations between CC and desertification.农业:未来气候变化趋势及农业对干旱灾害的风险;水资源: 未来气候变化情景对宁夏降水的影响;气候变化与沙漠化间的关系 Agricultural drought risk
  20. 20. Identify desirable adaptation options which could be used to reduce water vulnerability to climate changeInventory of climatechange vulnerabilitiesand adaptation optionsfor water sector RANKING: 1. Water allocation plans 2. Water use permit 3. Water saving technology 4. Water demand management Relative Importance Scale Adaptation Option 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 Adaptation Option Price Adjustment X Water Management Prioritized ranking of Price Adjustment X New technologies Price Adjustment X Research & Education options, indicating overall preference AHP multi-criteria evaluation of options by stakeholders using survey
  21. 21. Applying AHP in adaptation option prioritization• The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method has been used to prioritize alternative adaptation measures or options;• Policy meetings have been held to identify sustainability indicators by water resource managers and farmers; and• AHP surveys have been arranged with questionnaire to allow stakeholders and experts to evaluate adaptation options in the water sector in three case regions.
  22. 22. List of potential agricultural adaptation options (许吟隆,2010)
  23. 23. List of potential agricultural adaptation options (许吟隆,2010)
  24. 24. Sample AHP comparison table: water system Adaptation Option Relative Effectiveness Scale Adaptation Option 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5Reform crop structure x water use permit and water trade systemReform crop structure x Construct water worksReform crop structure x Establish farm water users’ society or committeeReform crop structure x Adopt advanced water use technologiesReform crop structure x Governments set water priceReform crop structure x Improve water allocation policiesReform crop structure x Increase water save awareness and education
  25. 25. ACCC Project: facilitates and enables NAS Climate disasters and Driving International responsibility, risks, economic losses UNFCCC forces NDRC: Design national climate change Media adaptation strategy and NGOs Facilitating Sufficient knowledge Effective adaptation options factors and information identified and available available Design provincial adaptation CAAS and CRCPP haveProvincial-level teams been appointed by NDRC plans optionscontributed to “12th to draft “China’sfive-year plan” Climate Change Adaptation Mid-to-Long Term Strategy” ACCC Project: research, communication, training, stakeholders engagement, sufficient expertise and policy makers
  26. 26. Adaptation Planning and Policy-National Level 适应规划及政策 – 国家层面• Operating in the context of the development of China’s 12th 5 Year Plan (5YP) • including a chapter on climate change; • including a specific section on adaptation for the first time; • mandating the development of a National Adaptation Strategy (NAS).• ACCC partners and researchers have been asked by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to support the development of the NAS.• A panel of 8 experts has been established to draft the strategy, of whom 4 are key ACCC experts.
  27. 27. Adaptation Planning and Policy-Provincial Level 适应规划及政策 – 省级层面• Results from ACCC provincial work 广东 will also be used to inform adaptation • 进行广东省流域生态补偿个案 strategy development. 研究;• ACCC partners in three pilot • 完成气候变化对于广东省水资 provinces (Guangdong, Inner 源及适应战略影响的研究报告; Mongolia and Ningxia) have made • 完成广东适应气候变化战略及 specific policy recommendations to 重点行动报告; local officials. 内蒙• They have also significantly • 省内专家级政策制定者就脆弱 contributed to the development of the 性评估及确定适应对策进行会 provincial 12th 5-Year Plans through 商; consultancy reports focusing 宁夏 specifically on climate change impacts and adaptation. • 生态补偿(PES)报告; • 开展生态移民项目。
  28. 28. Summary: ACCC success checklist 小结:ACCC成绩检查表 Research 研究 Policy 政策• Tested methodologies • ACCC influence in 12th 5YP / National• Collaboration (Chinese / International) Adaptation Strategy / CC Law• Integration (physical / social & • Evidence-based policy – tested & provincial / national) practiced• Credibility • Integrated approach reflected in policy• Publications • Provincial policy (IM, NX & GD) based• Model improvement on ACCC work (roadmap) DFID Research DECC, SDC, NDRC Capacity-building International Impact• Core group of officials & researchers • Case studies & experience shared pro- confident in CCA concepts & policy actively• Key stakeholders aware of CCA • Enhanced understanding & reputation• Progress towards CCA mainstreaming of China on CCA CCA into planning & investments • Extensive international publications SDC • Basis established for long-term partnerships DFID China, NDRC, DFID Research
  29. 29. Acknowledgement• The participation of this conference hasbeen made possible through the financialsupport of the ACCC project;• I would like to express my grateful Adapting to Climate Change in Chinaacknowledgement to many ACCC for their contributions;• Thank conference organization committeefor inviting me to attend the meeting;• The ACCC project is funded by DFID,DECC, and SDC• 对出资方为ACCC项目提供资助和支持表示感谢!• 感谢各级领导、专家学者、NGO及项目组成员的大力支持和努力!•向各位参会成员表示感谢!