Integrated assessment

1. 1
Philippine Experiences: Climate/Disaster
Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Dr. Jacob Tio
Philippines
NAP Expo 2015, Bonn, Germany, 15 April 2015
Integrated Assessment
Approaches
Commission
Change
Climate
Climate Change
Act of 2009
Peoples Survival Fund
Legal Mandate

2. 2
Build the adaptive
capacities of women
and men in their
communities, increase
the resilience of
vulnerable sectors and
natural ecosystems to
climate change, and
optimize mitigation
opportunities towards
gender-responsive and
rights-based
sustainable
development
(6)
Ecosystem-
based Mgt
(3)
Climate
Change
Impacts &
Risks
(2)
Vulnerable
Population
(1)
Ecosystem
Services
(4)
Economic
Activities
(5)
Bundle of
Assistance to
Improve CC
Resilience
Innovative
Financing
(Adaptation
Support)
Social Protection
& Risk Sharing
• PPP
• NG-LG Cost
Sharing
TA on Adaptation
measures &
technologies;
ecosystem
management
(6)
CC Resilient
Communities &
Local Economy
Enabling Climate Change Resilient Communities and Local
Economy: Ecotown Framework (Ecosystem Based Management)
Institutional
Mechanism to
Deliver Services
Monitoring and
Evaluation

3. 3
Risk Estimation
Risk Evaluation
Hazard Characterization/
Frequency Analysis
Consequence Analysis
DRA model as described under
Administrative Order No. 1
(17 September 2010) of
President Aquino
DisaterDisaterDisaterDisater Risk Assessment (DRA)Risk Assessment (DRA)Risk Assessment (DRA)Risk Assessment (DRA)
Risk Estimation
Risk Evaluation
Hazard Characterization/
Frequency Analysis
Consequence Analysis
Physical Impacts
Flooding, landslide, etc.
Sectoral Impacts
Agricultural, forestry, water,
health and coastal sectors
Vulnerability Analysis
Climate Projections
Rainfall pattern, temperature
changes
Climate/Disaster Risk andClimate/Disaster Risk andClimate/Disaster Risk andClimate/Disaster Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRA----VA)VA)VA)VA)

4. 4
Climate/Disaster Risk andClimate/Disaster Risk andClimate/Disaster Risk andClimate/Disaster Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRA----VA)VA)VA)VA)
a. Exposure Database
– ClimEx.DB (Climate Change Exposure Database)
– Developed under the Climate Twin Phoenix Project
(CCC-UNDP-Aus Govt)
b. Damage Curves
– Vulnerability/damage curves for structures
– Developed under the Greater Metro-Manila Area –
Risk Analysis Project (GMMA-RAP) of
OCD/CSCAND-Aus Govt
c. Climate Change Projections
d. Flood Inundation modeling/maps
e. C/DRA-VA – formulated under the Project ReBUILD
(CCC-UNDP-NZAP)

5. 5
CRB Flood Inundation
(1 in 5 yr RRP)
CRB Flood Inundation
(1 in 25 yr RRP)

6. 6

7. 7
Planning ScalePlanning ScalePlanning ScalePlanning Scale
a. Temporal scales
– Climate projections – for mid-century and late-
century
– Monthly variations
b. Spatial scales
– Integrated approach – river basins approach
– Regional vs local scales
c. Planning levels
– Vertical integration(national, sub-national)
– Top-down and bottoms-up approach
PlanningPlanningPlanningPlanning ScaleScaleScaleScale
Vertical integrationVertical integrationVertical integrationVertical integration
Regional plans
Provincial
plans
Local plans
CCA/DRR-Enhanced Plans
IEC and Capability
Building Support
IEC and Capability
Building Support
Mainstreaming of
climate change and
DRR concerns
Land Use Planning
and Adaptation/DRR
measures
Sustainable
Development

8. 8
Challenges and lessons learnedChallenges and lessons learnedChallenges and lessons learnedChallenges and lessons learned
a. Technical expertise/capacity
– Build up sub-national technical expertise/capacity
– Partnership with key regional line agencies
– Partnership with academe
– Mentoring and learning-by-doing model
b. Financial/human resources
– Flexibility – quantitative vis-à-vis
quantitative/qualitative approach
– Support from multi-lateral/bilateral partners
c. Institutionalization/Sustainability
– Partnership with provincial government
– Participatory and consultative processes
MaramingMaramingMaramingMaraming SalamatSalamatSalamatSalamat!!!!
Thank You!
Climate Change Office
Climate Change Commission
2U LPLP Building
Malacanang Complex, San Miguel
Manila, PHILIPPINES
www.climate.gov.ph
info@climate.gov.ph