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Simulated Effects of Climate Change on   Food Security in China toward 2050                         Liming Ye    Institute...
Introduction               9.6                million                km2               1.3                billion         ...
Cropland in China                    Cropland:                     14% of                     Land Area                   ...
Challenges for Food Security
Danger of Food Insecurity          Per Capita Values
Research Settings
Crop Modeling Rice                                 Yield Simulation Error    Yield Observation StationsYield simulated usi...
Cropping Area and Irrigation Probability                                           Rainfed MaizeIrrigated MaizeCropping ar...
Cropping Area and Irrigation Probability                                           Irrigation                             ...
Yield Growth Rate under Climate ChangeWheat
Yield Growth Rate under Climate ChangeWheat
Yield Growth Rate under Climate Change: Summary
Crop Yield under Climate Change: Summary
Scenario Settings
Food Self‐Sufficiency Outlooks                       140                             1st 5‐yr pl.                         ...
Concluding Remarks   Effect of CC on food production in China is    mainly reflected by the decrease in yield    growth ra...
Acknowledgements                     CAAS  Wei Xiong, Zhengguo Li, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu,     Guixia Yang, Zhongxin Chen, H...
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Ye liming — simulated effects of climate change on food security in china toward 2050


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Ye liming — simulated effects of climate change on food security in china toward 2050

  1. 1. Simulated Effects of Climate Change on  Food Security in China toward 2050 Liming Ye Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, China ICCCFS 2011, 7‐8 November 2011, Beijing China
  2. 2. Introduction 9.6  million  km2 1.3  billion  people 30% flat  surface 560  p./km2
  3. 3. Cropland in China Cropland:  14% of  Land Area 0.1 ha./  capita
  4. 4. Challenges for Food Security
  5. 5. Danger of Food Insecurity Per Capita Values
  6. 6. Research Settings
  7. 7. Crop Modeling Rice Yield Simulation Error Yield Observation StationsYield simulated using CERES model and compared to observed yield.
  8. 8. Cropping Area and Irrigation Probability Rainfed MaizeIrrigated MaizeCropping area extraction using satellite imagery and the cross entropy theory.
  9. 9. Cropping Area and Irrigation Probability Irrigation Probability
  10. 10. Yield Growth Rate under Climate ChangeWheat
  11. 11. Yield Growth Rate under Climate ChangeWheat
  12. 12. Yield Growth Rate under Climate Change: Summary
  13. 13. Crop Yield under Climate Change: Summary
  14. 14. Scenario Settings
  15. 15. Food Self‐Sufficiency Outlooks 140 1st 5‐yr pl. Start of Self‐sufficiency (%) reforms 120 100 Great Leap  SS increases only as  Forward population decreases! 90
  16. 16. Concluding Remarks Effect of CC on food production in China is  mainly reflected by the decrease in yield  growth rate and the increase in spatial and  temporal uncertainties; Population growth rate controls the future  food self‐sufficiency level in China. A growth  in population size will likely drag the SS down  under CC; CC effect on yield is nonlinear, either spatially  or temporally. Attention is thus called to use  proper scale for decision making.
  17. 17. Acknowledgements CAAS Wei Xiong, Zhengguo Li, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu,  Guixia Yang, Zhongxin Chen, Huajun Tang  Renmin Univ of China Yijiang Fu Ghent University, Belgium Eric Van Ranst