Ye liming — simulated effects of climate change on food security in china toward 2050
Simulated Effects of Climate Change on Food Security in China toward 2050 Liming Ye Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, China ICCCFS 2011, 7‐8 November 2011, Beijing China
Introduction 9.6 million km2 1.3 billion people 30% flat surface 560 p./km2
Cropland in China Cropland: 14% of Land Area 0.1 ha./ capita
Food Self‐Sufficiency Outlooks 140 1st 5‐yr pl. Start of Self‐sufficiency (%) reforms 120 100 Great Leap SS increases only as Forward population decreases! 90
Concluding Remarks Effect of CC on food production in China is mainly reflected by the decrease in yield growth rate and the increase in spatial and temporal uncertainties; Population growth rate controls the future food self‐sufficiency level in China. A growth in population size will likely drag the SS down under CC; CC effect on yield is nonlinear, either spatially or temporally. Attention is thus called to use proper scale for decision making.
Acknowledgements CAAS Wei Xiong, Zhengguo Li, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu, Guixia Yang, Zhongxin Chen, Huajun Tang Renmin Univ of China Yijiang Fu Ghent University, Belgium Eric Van Ranst