China’s Agricultural Risk            to Climate Change• Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)• Climate Change Lab•   Institute of Environment ...
ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
Overall features of climate change in China  Obvious warming with greater climate variability  Unbalanced regional precipi...
The Challenges of Agriculture to       Climate Change in ChinaThreatening food security;Enhancing the agro-meteorological ...
1. More Occurrence of Agro-meteorological Disasters Super Typhoon Saomai and Bilis Landed in 2006  Frozen snow in Southern...
Drought in North China Plain                               6
2.Impacts on cropping system  The cultivated area of single cropping system might drop by23%,the north boundary of double ...
3. Impacts on the yield of major crops                                      Increasing                    Decreasing      ...
4. Impacts on the crop pests and diseases  The climate warming would change the distribution ofagricultural diseases and p...
ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
China’s INC on               Studies on National Strategy  CC (2004)                    of CC Adaptation (2011)          N...
Adapt to what?Adaptation
Major tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt            to climate changeEnhancing the construction of agricultural infrast...
Action planBased on the challenges to climate change and major tasks toadapt to climate change, we proposed the action pla...
Shortcomings of the present adaptation              strategy research•     GHGs          Climate         Impacts    emissi...
ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
Risk assessment        Risk= Hazard × VulnerabilityExtreme Climate Events            Hazard                               ...
Grids: 145*112                            PRECIS Old DomainPRECIS New Domain                 Grids: 219*183
PRECIS Jobs List for the Old Domain                                             TemporalObservation        Period         ...
PRECIS Jobs List for the New Domain                                         Temporal   GCMs           Period        Status...
PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Temp.       BS                     2020s      2050s                   2080s
PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Pre.       BS                     2020s       2050s                   2080s
PRECIS Outputs for the New Domain -A1B   BS Temperature     2020s Temperature VS Baseline   BS Precipitation   2020s Preci...
Vulnerability IndicesFirst-class   Second-class                                        First-class    Second-class        ...
Questionnaire of Vulnerability indicators
Indices Weights (Based on AHP)                  Indices                         Weight          年均降水量(Precipitation)      ...
ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
Next-step workConvert the extracted information of extremeclimate evens from climate scenarios to agro-meteorological haza...
ACCC Project :RegCM3 & PRECIS Job-list• ERA-Interim: 1989-2008• HadCM3• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• SRES A1B QUMP171013: 19...
Xu Yinlong — Agricultural risk to climate change in china
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Xu Yinlong — Agricultural risk to climate change in china

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Xu Yinlong — Agricultural risk to climate change in china

  1. 1. China’s Agricultural Risk to Climate Change• Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)• Climate Change Lab• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)• Beijing, P. R. China• Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012• E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn• 08 November, 2011
  2. 2. ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
  3. 3. Overall features of climate change in China Obvious warming with greater climate variability Unbalanced regional precipitation with enhanced drought and flooding More occurrence of extreme weather/climate events with huge economic loss
  4. 4. The Challenges of Agriculture to Climate Change in ChinaThreatening food security;Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pestsand weeds;Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animalhusbandry;Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologicallyvulnerable regions.
  5. 5. 1. More Occurrence of Agro-meteorological Disasters Super Typhoon Saomai and Bilis Landed in 2006 Frozen snow in Southern China in 2008. Affected Crop areasare nearly 15 Million Hectares and the direct economic lossesare more than 159 Billion Yuan.
  6. 6. Drought in North China Plain 6
  7. 7. 2.Impacts on cropping system The cultivated area of single cropping system might drop by23%,the north boundary of double cropping system might movenorthward to the middle part of the region of the present singlecropping system, and the proportion of triple cropping systemmight change from the present 13.5% to 36%. The border of farming-pastoral ecotone moved southward and extended eastward between 1971-2000 and 1961- 1990.
  8. 8. 3. Impacts on the yield of major crops Increasing Decreasing No changeGreen:↑ Red: ↓ Yellow: --Liu & Lin
  9. 9. 4. Impacts on the crop pests and diseases The climate warming would change the distribution ofagricultural diseases and pests. This would increase the outbreakof pest and disease . the amount of pesticide and herbicideapplication would be increased due to the climate warming. Rice Planthopper Wheat Aphid
  10. 10. ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
  11. 11. China’s INC on Studies on National Strategy CC (2004) of CC Adaptation (2011) National Assessment Report on CC (2007)
  12. 12. Adapt to what?Adaptation
  13. 13. Major tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt to climate changeEnhancing the construction of agricultural infrastructures;Accelerating agricultural industrialization andmodernization;Strengthening water conservancy facility and developingwater-saving agriculture;Adjusting cropping systems and crop varieties layout;Developing adaptation techniques for animal husbandry;Establishing the early-warning systems for agriculturaldisasters and improving agricultural disasters insurance;Completing the adaptation technology check-list.
  14. 14. Action planBased on the challenges to climate change and major tasks toadapt to climate change, we proposed the action plan towards theyear 2020, including:1. basic farmland construction2. water saving project3. agricultural infrastructure construction4. constructing the gene pool and seed bank5. adjusting the cropping system6. monitoring, predicting and controlling the agro-meteorological disasters7. developing the adaptation technique checklist8. building the demonstration zone for adaptation9. preventing the grassland degradation10. forage resourcing and planning
  15. 15. Shortcomings of the present adaptation strategy research• GHGs Climate Impacts emissions change assessments √ ×Vulnerability Risk Adaptation analysis analysis strategy
  16. 16. ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
  17. 17. Risk assessment Risk= Hazard × VulnerabilityExtreme Climate Events Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
  18. 18. Grids: 145*112 PRECIS Old DomainPRECIS New Domain Grids: 219*183
  19. 19. PRECIS Jobs List for the Old Domain TemporalObservation Period Status Resolution ERA-15 1979-1993 Ready Daily ERA-40 1957-2001 Ready Temporal GCMs Period Status ResolutionHadAM3P BS(1961-1990), 3个 ReadyHadAM3P A2 (2071-2100), 3个 Ready DailyHadAM3P B2 (2071-2100) ReadyHadCM3Q0 A1B(1961-2100) Ready
  20. 20. PRECIS Jobs List for the New Domain Temporal GCMs Period Status Resolution Notes A1B ECHAM5 (1961-2050) Ready Daily 2051-2011 outputs Hourly and would be ready later; Q0 Ready Daily Q10 Ready Experiments: A1B Q0:control experiment HadCM3Q Q13 Ready(CORDEX-EAsia) (1961- includes hourly and 2050) daily outputs; Runnin Q7 g Runnin Daily In daily level: Q1 g Q1:low sensitivity; Not Q7:middle sensitivity; RCP 4.5 ready Q10:high sensitivity; CMIP5 (1961- 2050) 8.5 Not Q13:high sensitivity. ready
  21. 21. PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Temp. BS 2020s 2050s 2080s
  22. 22. PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Pre. BS 2020s 2050s 2080s
  23. 23. PRECIS Outputs for the New Domain -A1B BS Temperature 2020s Temperature VS Baseline BS Precipitation 2020s Precipitation VS Baseline
  24. 24. Vulnerability IndicesFirst-class Second-class First-class Second-class Third-class indices Third-class indices indices indices indices indices Crop planting GDP GDP per capita areas Different crop planting areas Income level Income per capita Total and growth rate of Grain yield Total/growth rate of Yield population Total and structure Drought The rate of being educatedExposure of population population Floods The proportion of poverty Disasters-causing factors The proportion of agricultural High temperature Land use land Low temperature The proportion of agricultural Agricultural GDP GDP Precipitation The application rate of chemical Climatologically fertilizer normal Temperature The level of agricultural Accumulated temperature Adaptive Agricultural mechanization capacity investmentSensitivity Temperature variability The application rate of Pesticides Climate variability Total and rate of agricultural Precipitation variability electricity Yield Yield variation Water conservancy facilities level Irrigable area Farmland capital construction Disaster level Disaster area level The proportion of three major The proportion in planting industries Extension of The rate of promotion of agricultural achievement of science and science technology in agriculture Response capability of disaster Management ability assistance
  25. 25. Questionnaire of Vulnerability indicators
  26. 26. Indices Weights (Based on AHP) Indices Weight 年均降水量(Precipitation) 0.1418 年均温度(Temperature) 0.0775 积温(Accumulated temperature) 0.0493 气温变率(Temperature variability) 0.0220 降水变率(Precipitation variability) 0.0302 产量变化率(Precipitation variability) 0.0126 人均GDP(GDP per capita) 0.1068 农民人均纯收入(Income per capita) 0.0971 贫困人口比例(The proportion of poverty) 0.0330 水土流失面积或治理率(Soil erosion area) 0.0257 人均粮食产量占有量(Per capita occupancy of grain) 0.0251年均农业总投入(Annual overall input to agriculture) 0.0195 可灌溉面积比例(The proportion of irrigated area) 0.0158 种植业比例(The proportion of planting) 0.0103 农作物总面积(Crop planting areas) 0.1413 粮食总产/增长率(Total growth rate of yield) 0.1024 干旱成灾/受灾面积(Drought areas) 0.0552高温成灾/受灾面积(High temperature Disaster areas) 0.0188低温成灾/受灾面积(Low temperature Disaster areas) 0.0156
  27. 27. ContentBackgroundRecent Adaptation Work for AgricultureRisk AssessmentNext-step Work-plan
  28. 28. Next-step workConvert the extracted information of extremeclimate evens from climate scenarios to agro-meteorological hazards;Complete the vulnerability indices;Collect the relevant data of vulnerability indices;
  29. 29. ACCC Project :RegCM3 & PRECIS Job-list• ERA-Interim: 1989-2008• HadCM3• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• SRES A1B QUMP171013: 1951-2100• ECHAM5• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• CMIP5 Models RCP 8.5 ⁄ 4.5: 1951-2100

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