International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, November 8, 2011       Impacts of agro-drought on grain     ...
Drought in YunnanThe contents•   Background•   Objectives•   Methodology•   Results and analysis•   Conclusion
Climate in China  The climate of China is complex, diverse, and unique, with a monsoon-  controlled pattern showing clear ...
Drought is the most                                  powerful natural force                                  shaping impac...
Climate in China is a typical monsoon pattern. WithrainfallDrought has been a frequent climatic event in China.2007 drough...
Drought intensity for 2001-2005                                                                                   Heilongj...
Drought monitoring in ChinaAugust 2005                             May 2005   Based on MODIS data
图2    全国旱情遥感监测(2009年3月下旬)                   MODIS + 降水 监测结果     特旱     正常     重旱     湿润     中旱     过湿     轻旱     云说明:旱情等级划...
图1   全国耕地旱情遥感监测(2009年5月中旬)         特旱      正常         重旱      湿润         中旱      过湿         轻旱      云                 非耕地 ...
Objective of the studyEconomically drought reduces the productivity of cropland tothreaten food security in a country like...
MethodologyTo link drought with food security and climate change       Drought                            Water and temper...
Data for the analysis    Available statistic data on drought in China•     Drought statistics in ChinaOnly cropping acreag...
Drought intensity indexPercentage of drought area to total cropping acreageTaking moderate drought as unity               ...
Drought-induced loss of grain production   Computation according to cropping structure        n        n  Fd = ∑Fdi =∑[Ri ...
Drought impact index    To represent the impact of drought on grain production, as    percentage of drought-induced loss t...
Procedures for analysis of drought’s impacts on grain production and climate change in China.                      Statist...
Results and analysis• Drought attack on agriculture in China in   recent years• Spatial variation of drought intensity in ...
Change of cropping areas under various                                                     Arable land: 130 Mha           ...
Change of agro-drought intensity in China                         26                         24                         22...
Drought Intensity(a) 1990-1995                           (b) 1996-2000(c) 2001-2005                           (d) 2005    ...
Actual and potential                       food productions in                       ChinaDifference betweenactual and pot...
Impact of drought on food security of China              10               9               8Impact ( %)               7    ...
Drought-induced food production loss   (a) 1990-1995                        (b) 1996-2000   (c) 2001-2005                 ...
Spatial variation of drought impact on food production          (a) 1990-1995                   (b) 1996-2000          (c)...
Relationship between drought-induced food                     production loss and drought intensity in China            55...
Relationship between drought’s impact on food                    production loss and drought intensity in China           ...
ConclusionEach year 25-30 Mha of cropping land were under drought attack.Drought intensity was 13.8% on average between 19...
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Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

  1. 1. International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, November 8, 2011 Impacts of agro-drought on grain production in China Zhihao Qin, PhD, professor Institute of Agro-Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, China Email: zhihaoqin@163.com
  2. 2. Drought in YunnanThe contents• Background• Objectives• Methodology• Results and analysis• Conclusion
  3. 3. Climate in China The climate of China is complex, diverse, and unique, with a monsoon- controlled pattern showing clear latitudinal and longitudinal differentiation. The annual rotation of four seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) with coincident heat and rainfall is a well-known feature of Chinese climate.Formation of Chineseclimate is subject to theinteraction of four mainregimes that governclimatic dynamics in China:subtropical monsoon,tropical monsoon,plateau monsoon, I West wind circulation regimeand west-wind II Subtropical monsoon regime III Tropical monsoon regimecirculation. VI Equatoric monsoon regime V Tibetan Plateau monsoon regime
  4. 4. Drought is the most powerful natural force shaping impact on agriculture. In China drought is catastrophic: frequent, seriousEach year drought occurs invarious parts of China, with anaverage acreage of 20-25 Mha Agriculture in China: Arable land 100 M ha Cropping area 155 M ha Grain area 100 M ha Grain production 500 M t
  5. 5. Climate in China is a typical monsoon pattern. WithrainfallDrought has been a frequent climatic event in China.2007 drought in Guangxi and Hunan. 2008 in southwestand northwest ChinaSince 2009, China has been continuously attacked bysevere drought events, with 2009 in north China plain,2010 in southwest China, and this year 2011 in middleYangtze River Basin and southwest China.2011 is a big drought year in China, spring and summer,drought. It is said that this drought was the biggest withinthe last 60 years.
  6. 6. Drought intensity for 2001-2005 Heilongjiang Jilin Liaoning Xinjiang Inner Mongolia 1 2 Hebei 4 Shanxi Shandong Qinghai Gansu Shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Anhui 3 Tibet Sichuan Hubei <5% Zhejiang 6 Jiangxi Hunan5-10% Guizhou Fujian Yunnan10-15% Guangxi Guangdong 1 Beijing 2 Tianjin15-25% 3 Shanghai 4 Ningxia 5 5 Hainan>25% 6 Chongqing
  7. 7. Drought monitoring in ChinaAugust 2005 May 2005 Based on MODIS data
  8. 8. 图2 全国旱情遥感监测(2009年3月下旬) MODIS + 降水 监测结果 特旱 正常 重旱 湿润 中旱 过湿 轻旱 云说明:旱情等级划分,见表1的注解
  9. 9. 图1 全国耕地旱情遥感监测(2009年5月中旬) 特旱 正常 重旱 湿润 中旱 过湿 轻旱 云 非耕地 说明:旱情等级划分,见表1的注解
  10. 10. Objective of the studyEconomically drought reduces the productivity of cropland tothreaten food security in a country like China with giantpopulation and relatively limited cropland resources.Environmentally water shortage and high temperature as aresult of drought can alter soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamicsto affect climate changes in regional and global scales.Objective: to quantify drought’s impact on grainproduction and food security in China.
  11. 11. MethodologyTo link drought with food security and climate change Drought Water and temperature stress Productivity decline Biome Residues, manure, CO2, CH4, Production leaching Soil fertility SOC change Food security Climate change
  12. 12. Data for the analysis Available statistic data on drought in China• Drought statistics in ChinaOnly cropping acreage under drought effects are available, with three levels of severity:Slight drought: 10-30% of productivity declineModerate drought: 30-50% declineSevere drought: >50% of productivity decline
  13. 13. Drought intensity indexPercentage of drought area to total cropping acreageTaking moderate drought as unity w1 Ai1 + w1 Ai 2 + w3 Ai 3 DI i = Aitwhere DIi is the drought intensity index for province i; Ai1, Ai2 andAi3 are the cropping acreages under drought at slight, moderate andsevere levels, respectively, in province i; Ait is the total croppingacreage in province i; and w1, w2 and w3 denote the weights ofdrought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively.Taking moderate drought as unity, we give w1=P1/P2=0.45, w2=1,and w3=P1/P2 =1.78 in the study.
  14. 14. Drought-induced loss of grain production Computation according to cropping structure n n Fd = ∑Fdi =∑[Ri Ai1Yi (1− P ) + Ri Ai2Yi (1− P ) + Ri Ai3Yi (1− P )] 1 2 3 i=1 i=1where i denotes province i; n is total number of provinces (n=30); Fdiis drought-caused food production loss in province i; Ri is the fractionof grain cropping area to the total cropping area in province i; Ai1, Ai2and Ai3 are the cropping areas under drought at slight, moderate andsevere levels, respectively, in province i; Yi is the yield of graincropping in province i; and P1, P2 and P3 denote the rates of yielddrop under drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively.The rates can be determined as the conservative medians, i.e. P1=20%,P2=45% and P3=80%
  15. 15. Drought impact index To represent the impact of drought on grain production, as percentage of drought-induced loss to the total production Fd Rd = ×100% Fp Fwhere Rd represents the impact of drought on food security,and Fp is the food production without drought.
  16. 16. Procedures for analysis of drought’s impacts on grain production and climate change in China. Statistic data The supportedFood production Drought data Cropping & other data databases DNDC model Models on drought & Models on drought & Cropland SOC food relationship SOC relationship Drought’s impact on Drought’s impact on food production SOC dynamics Evaluation of drought’s impacts
  17. 17. Results and analysis• Drought attack on agriculture in China in recent years• Spatial variation of drought intensity in China• Annual loss of grain production due to drought attacks• Impact of drought on food security in China• Relationship between drought intensity and its impact on food security in China
  18. 18. Change of cropping areas under various Arable land: 130 Mha levels of drought attack Cropping acreage: 155Mha 20000 Slight (a) 17500 Moderate SevereDrought acreage (Kha) 15000 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
  19. 19. Change of agro-drought intensity in China 26 24 22Drought intensity ( %) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
  20. 20. Drought Intensity(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005 <5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-25% >25%
  21. 21. Actual and potential food productions in ChinaDifference betweenactual and potentialfood productions inChina
  22. 22. Impact of drought on food security of China 10 9 8Impact ( %) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
  23. 23. Drought-induced food production loss (a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000 (c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005 <100Kt 100-500 500-1000 1000-2000 >2000Kt
  24. 24. Spatial variation of drought impact on food production (a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000 (c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005 <2% 2-5% 5-10% >10%
  25. 25. Relationship between drought-induced food production loss and drought intensity in China 55 (a) 50 45 y = 1.9747x + 0.5781 40 2 R = 0.9784Loss (mt) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 Drought intensity %
  26. 26. Relationship between drought’s impact on food production loss and drought intensity in China 11 (b) 10 9 y = 0.3838x + 0.3265 8 2 R = 0.9933Impact % 7 6 5 4 3 2 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 Drought intensity %
  27. 27. ConclusionEach year 25-30 Mha of cropping land were under drought attack.Drought intensity was 13.8% on average between 1990-2005, with maximumof 25% and minimum of 6%.Drought induced 28 Mt of grain production loss, shaping an impact of 6% tototal grain production in China, shaping an impact of 3% inminimum and 10% in maximum on food security in China1996-2000 had the severest drought, with an intensity of 15.11% on averageand an annual food production loss of 32Mt, leading an impact of 6.1%.Greater impacts of drought on grain production were observed in NortheasternChina and Northwestern China regions, including Shanxi, Shaanxi, JilinHeilongjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces.Quantitatively an increase of 1% in drought intensity might lead to 2 Mt offood production loss, and an impact of 0.4% on total grain production.
  28. 28. Thank you!

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