1WHAT DOES CLIMATE CHANGE MEAN TOFOOD CONSUMPTION OF LOW-INCOMEGROUP IN RURAL CHINA?LI Yun,Institute of Agricultural Econo...
2Outline• Motive• Data• Model and estimation• Conclusions and implication
3Motive• Climate change: a global issue.• climate warming: Many studies find evidence indicating that climate changing in ...
4Motive• Climate change: Household income? Food consumption?• Quite a few studies investigate the income effect on househo...
5Data• 10 western provinces are studied. They are Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qingh...
6Model and Estimation         Per capita Net Income    Net Agricultural Income  Year                   (a)                ...
7Model and Estimation•
8Climate change• w1:About 34.5% of the cultivated farm land are actually  covered by different kinds of disasters annually...
9the impact of climate change onagricultural income•
10Climate change & Agri. income                          Equation (2)-1                                Equation (2)-2     ...
11Results summary of equ.2• The results show that disasters induced by adverse  climate do invade net agricultural income....
12  Food Consumption (per capita kg/year)year    rice    wheat vegt     oil         meat    pork    beef    lamb    poultr...
13Food consumption & Climate change•
14  the determinant of food consumption of western  rural residents: a GMM estimationvariable     rice     wheat        ve...
15Results1. the impact of climate change on food consumption • Climate change has statistically significant and negative i...
16Results4. the impact of population growth and time trend on     food consumption• the consumption of vegetables, edible ...
17Conclusions and Implication1.   The impact of climate change on agricultural income varies     among different regions. ...
18Conclusions and Implication4. Rural residents’ consumption of vegetables and eggs   increases over time, which indicates...
19Welcome Comments,     Thanks!
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Li Yun — What does climate change mean to food consumption of low income group in rural china

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Li Yun — What does climate change mean to food consumption of low income group in rural china

  1. 1. 1WHAT DOES CLIMATE CHANGE MEAN TOFOOD CONSUMPTION OF LOW-INCOMEGROUP IN RURAL CHINA?LI Yun,Institute of Agricultural Economics andDevelopment,CAAS;YU Wen,Agricultural Information Centre, CAAS
  2. 2. 2Outline• Motive• Data• Model and estimation• Conclusions and implication
  3. 3. 3Motive• Climate change: a global issue.• climate warming: Many studies find evidence indicating that climate changing in general will benefit crop yield increase annually (Zhao et al., 2010;Li et al.,2010; Yang et al.,2010; Wang et al., 2011). • climate warming will make the north boundaries of food crops move toward northwest and southeast direction; suitable acreage of some crops expands; • the yield of rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will increase, as suggested by Sun et al. (2005).• Climate change also means the increase of extreme climate including rainstorm, hail, frost, and drought etc. • Wu et al. (2008) finds that drought among various plagues was the chief disaster that severely affected major grain production in northwest China. • Li et al. (2008) show that the decline of rice meteorological yield was caused by the cold wet weather in spring and summer drought.
  4. 4. 4Motive• Climate change: Household income? Food consumption?• Quite a few studies investigate the income effect on household consumption. • Almost all studies suggest that price and income elasticity for individual food and food collection for China is in general relatively lower(Li et al., 2010; Cheng et al., 2009;Liu et al, 2009; Li et al, 2005).• However, less research links food consumption at household level with climate change.• This paper aims to fill in gap in this field.
  5. 5. 5Data• 10 western provinces are studied. They are Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. 1. Total sown area of farm crops:47.85 million hectares in 2009, 30% of the national total. 2. 47.21 million hectares farm lands were hit by disasters in 2009 all over China, of which 31% were in these 10 western provinces. 3. Rural population:206.44 million in 2009, 28.9% of China’s rural population. 4. Lower income: Per capita net income of rural households in each of the 10 provinces is far below nation average level in 2009. The average of per capita net income of rural households of the ten provinces is around 70% of national average.• China Statistics Yearbook and Agriculture Statistics Yearbook;2000- 2009.• Including farm household income, agricultural income, cultivated area, disaster-covered area, disaster-afflicted area, price index of crop products, and growth rate of rural population.
  6. 6. 6Model and Estimation Per capita Net Income Net Agricultural Income Year (a) (b) (b)/(a) Mean Std.Dev.Coef. Mean Std.Dev.Coef. 2000 1701.34 0.14 872.80 0.45 51.3% 2001 1753.08 0.15 890.40 0.39 50.8% 2002 1861.07 0.17 901.29 0.44 48.4% 2003 1961.98 0.16 932.57 0.46 47.5% 2004 2107.04 0.17 996.28 0.43 47.3% 2005 2272.57 0.18 1084.59 0.44 47.7% 2006 2439.85 0.18 1101.55 0.46 45.1% 2007 2690.22 0.20 1189.80 0.48 44.2% 2008 2900.11 0.20 1214.42 0.50 41.9% 2009 3140.61 0.19 1284.76 0.49 40.9%
  7. 7. 7Model and Estimation•
  8. 8. 8Climate change• w1:About 34.5% of the cultivated farm land are actually covered by different kinds of disasters annually in 2000s.• w2: About 19.7% of the cultivated farm land are actually afflicted by different kinds of disasters annually in 2000s. 45 40 35 30 w1, 31.2 (%) 25 20 15 w2, 14.2 10 5 0
  9. 9. 9the impact of climate change onagricultural income•
  10. 10. 10Climate change & Agri. income Equation (2)-1 Equation (2)-2 w1 pindex rpop T w2 pindex rpop TInner 0.0347 -0.00137 7.416*** 0.247*** 0.0514 -0.00142 7.421*** 0.247***Mogolia (0.27) (-0.88) (39.91) (20.63) (0.39) (-0.88) (40.22) (23.53)Guangxi -4.016*** -0.0151*** 9.431*** 0.254*** -7.102*** 0.0151*** 5.570*** 0.320*** (-7.24) (-5.21) (17.32) (11.99) (-5.52) (5.06) (24.45) (26.29)Sichuan 1.019 * -0.00375 7.317*** 0.0132 1.353 * -0.00376 7.433*** -0.00404 (2.26) (-1.05) (11.69) (0.23) (2.05) (-0.81) (10.16) (-0.06)Guizhou -0.663*** 0.0141*** 4.732*** 0.205*** -0.723*** 0.0135*** 4.749*** 0.200*** (-3.98) (20.23) (68.83) (29.56) (-3.46) (22.02) (66.20) (30.32)Yunnan 0.175 * 0.00223 6.308*** 0.147*** 0.350 * 0.00144 6.423*** 0.138*** (2.02) (0.95) (19.92) (5.85) (2.17) (0.56) (18.20) (4.80) 0.00514** 0.00512**Shaanxi -0.141 5.572*** 0.225*** -0.292*** 5.599*** 0.218*** * * (-0.71) (6.33) (27.79) (9.66) (-4.51) (6.52) (36.15) (10.53) -Gansu -0.226 -0.00455 7.138*** 0.163*** -0.640*** 0.00385** 7.113*** 0.174*** * (-1.37) (-1.45) (20.10) (7.71) (-11.81) (-6.70) (94.89) (41.34)Qinghai -0.405*** 0.0022 5.906*** 0.122*** -0.407*** -0.000221 6.175*** 0.0985*** (-5.16) (1.71) (30.88) (5.87) (-10.30) (-0.18) (30.70) (4.77)Ningxia -0.519 0.00648 5.689*** 0.379** 0.921 -0.00283 6.692*** 0.257*** (-0.60) (0.72) (5.18) (3.23) (1.02) (-0.49) (9.06) (3.39) 0.00357**Xinjiang -0.449*** 6.784*** 0.106*** -0.529 0.00315 6.797*** 0.111*** * (-3.39) (3.46) (50.35) (8.58) (-1.75) (1.87) (34.47) (6.96)
  11. 11. 11Results summary of equ.2• The results show that disasters induced by adverse climate do invade net agricultural income.• The increase of price index of agricultural products has a statistically significant impact on per capita net agri. income in Guangxi, Guizhou, Shaanx, Gansu, and Xinjiang.• the increase of rural population facilitate the increase of agriculture income.• Time trend factors including technology and infrastructure progress contribute to the increase of agricultural income. • trend factors contribute to the increase of net agri. income by 1.1~1.46% annually.
  12. 12. 12 Food Consumption (per capita kg/year)year rice wheat vegt oil meat pork beef lamb poultry egg fish 2003 80.0 102.8 88.6 5.5 18.9 14.9 1.3 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.0 2004 78.6 103.0 88.0 4.0 18.3 14.7 0.9 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.0 2005 79.4 105.1 86.0 5.1 20.3 16.6 1.1 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.1 2006 77.5 98.4 83.7 5.1 20.7 16.6 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.2 2007 75.9 95.5 81.1 5.0 18.7 14.8 1.3 2.7 2.9 2.2 1.3 2008 77.2 93.7 80.3 5.1 17.3 14.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 2.6 1.3 2009 77.2 88.1 86.0 5.3 20.9 15.1 1.1 2.5 3.4 2.5 1.3Total 78.0 98.1 84.8 5.0 19.3 15.2 1.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 1.2
  13. 13. 13Food consumption & Climate change•
  14. 14. 14 the determinant of food consumption of western rural residents: a GMM estimationvariable rice wheat veg oil pork beef lamb poultry egg fish Ps/pr 3.319*** 4.078*** -0.00423 6.819*** 0.157 3.271 0.419 -0.816* 1.665 (3.96) (4.74) (-0.01) (6.36) (0.07) (1.14) (0.50) (-2.15) (1.71) w1 -2.469* 2.124 -1.051** -0.728 3.214*** 0.996 3.153* -1.409* 0.59 -0.445 (-2.22) (1.76) (-2.95) (-1.81) (3.98) (0.89) (2.11) (-2.02) (0.79) (-0.57) 0.0472pindex 0.0214 0.0326 0.0283*** -0.00613 0.0428* -0.0505 -0.0992* 0.0337* 0.0487*** * (0.97) (0.87) (4.62) (-0.59) (2.15) (-1.61) (-2.25) (2.30) (3.77) (2.24) rpop -0.281 -6.692 1.683* 3.228* -9.814** 12.23* 12.56* -9.029*** -1.716 -4.91 (-0.11) (-1.31) (1.97) (2.27) (-3.29) (2.33) (2.14) (-3.65) (-0.81) (-1.34) trend 0.381 0.531 0.325*** 0.0399 0.119 -0.0697 -0.78 0.0798 0.466*** 0.325 (1.66) (1.31) (5.32) (0.34) (0.63) (-0.22) (-1.84) (0.46) (3.78) (1.54) lnpr -2.511* -0.86 -1.215*** -0.368 0.848 -2.569* -0.938 2.271** -1.648** -1.694 (-2.49) (-0.36) (-4.06) (-0.82) (1.10) (-2.22) (-0.62) (2.86) (-2.81) (-1.28) Ps/pr 2.902*** 4.160*** -0.0161 6.828*** 0.0879 3.364 0.28 -0.781* 1.623 (3.37) (4.53) (-0.03) (6.34) (0.04) (1.26) (0.34) (-2.10) (1.65) w2 -4.479** 2.758 -1.562** -0.81 4.099*** 2.303 5.501** -1.313 0.578 -0.698 (-2.91) (1.61) (-2.62) (-1.65) (3.79) (1.54) (2.78) (-1.28) (0.48) (-0.65) 0.0466pindex 0.0229 0.0367 0.0267*** -0.00743 0.0474* -0.0504 -0.0929* 0.0311 0.0501*** * (1.07) (1.00) (4.50) (-0.68) (2.22) (-1.67) (-2.19) (1.96) (4.09) (2.24) rpop -0.116 -7.205 1.772* 3.513* -10.90** 11.62* 11.1 -8.705*** -1.868 -4.67 (-0.05) (-1.44) (2.13) (2.30) (-3.12) (2.25) (1.90) (-3.37) (-0.92) (-1.27) trend 0.418 0.525 0.309*** 0.0378 0.114 -0.0945 -0.781 0.0705 0.476*** 0.327 (1.83) (1.27) (5.05) (0.31) (0.58) (-0.31) (-1.95) (0.39) (3.72) (1.57) lnpr -2.567** -0.437 -1.115*** -0.458 1.174 -2.357* -0.716 2.246** -1.654** -1.753 (-2.67) (-0.18) (-3.43) (-0.94) (1.40) (-2.08) (-0.48) (2.64) (-2.65) (-1.34)
  15. 15. 15Results1. the impact of climate change on food consumption • Climate change has statistically significant and negative impact on rice and vegetable consumption of rural residents. However, climate change has significant and positive impact on pork and lamb consumption.2. the impact of substitute products on food consumption • results show that rice and wheat, as staple food in western China, act evidently good substitute to each other. Eggs are strong substitute for pork. There is no evidence to show that pork acts a substitute for edible oil and the result is statistically insignificant.3. The result suggests that the increase of producer price of agricultural products actually increase rural residents’ consumption of vegetables, pork, eggs, and aquatic products, and do not affect staple food consumption including rice and wheat.
  16. 16. 16Results4. the impact of population growth and time trend on food consumption• the consumption of vegetables, edible oil, beef and lamb increases as rural population grows, but the consumption of pork and poultry meat declines.• rural residents’ consumption preference to vegetables and eggs goes up over time.5. price elasticity and food consumption• Results indicate that the consumption of rice, vegetables, beef, and eggs is price elastic. Increase of price of these items will significantly reduce their consumption.
  17. 17. 17Conclusions and Implication1. The impact of climate change on agricultural income varies among different regions. Six out of ten provinces are affected adversely and significantly. This might suggest adaptation capability in these provinces particularly need to be strengthened to tackle with adverse climate change.2. The impact of climate change on food consumption differs in accord with food varieties. Adverse climate change has negative impact on the consumption of rice, vegetables and poultry. However, climate change helps to increase meat consumption including pork and lamb.3. Rural population growth is an important factor affecting household income. Per capita agricultural income increases with the increase of rural population growth. One possible explanation is that agricultural labor is deficient in many rural regions as most prime rural labors migrate to the urban.
  18. 18. 18Conclusions and Implication4. Rural residents’ consumption of vegetables and eggs increases over time, which indicates an improvement in food nutrition balance. However, rural residents’ consumption of certain food items including vegetables, beef, and eggs are quite elastic to price change.5. Time trend variable including technological progress factors plays a positive role in agricultural income growth. However, the coefficient is relatively low.
  19. 19. 19Welcome Comments, Thanks!

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