Olayide et al.icsd 2015

CIRCLE | www.acu.ac.uk/circle
Review of Vulnerability and Policy Responses to
Water Supply and Extreme Rainfall Events in
Nigeria
Olawale E. Olayide1,2*, Isaac K. Tetteh2
& Labode Popoola1
1University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
2Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
*Email: waleolayide@yahoo.com, oe.olayide@ui.edu.ng

Outline
• Introduction
• Materials & Methods
• Results & Discussion
• Conclusion
• Recommendations
• Acknowledgements

Introduction
• Climate change is now a global development challenge
• The United Nations has identified climate change as one of the areas for the
sustainable development goals (SDGs)
• The SDG 13 seeks to take urgent action to combat climate change and its
impacts (United Nations 2015). Climate change impacts are predicted to
result in extreme rainfall events (flooding and droughts).

Introduction
• Nigeria’s high vulnerability to climate change and climate change events are
due to a number of factors:
 its geographical characteristics,
 limited capacity to adapt,
 dependence on climate-sensitive resources,
 teeming population,
 concentration of GDP generating industry in locations that are highly
vulnerable to climate change, and
 wide-spread and high levels of poverty

Introduction
• Sönke and Eckstein (2014) reported on the global Climate Risk Index,
noting that less developed countries (including Nigeria) are generally more
affected by extreme climate and weather-related events than industrialized
countries
• Climate change could result to loss in GDP of about 30% by 2050 in
Nigeria. This could worth an estimated US$ 100 to 460 billion dollars (IPCC,
2007)
• With minimal adaptation to no adaptation scenarios, about 2-11% of GDP
could be lost by 2020 (Spurgeon et al., 2009)

Introduction
• The IPCC (2007) stated that “Africa (including Nigeria) is one of the most
vulnerable continents because of multiple stresses and low adaptive
capacity.
• The multiple stresses arising from climatic hazards, poverty and unequal
access to resources, food insecurity, globalization trends, social and political
conflicts and incidences of diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis and
HIV/AIDS” are all worst in Africa.

Introduction
• Besides, high levels of poverty have implications for resilience, adaptation
and mitigation to climate change in Nigeria (IPCC, 2007; NBS, 2005).
• Poverty reduces adaptive capacity to climate change
• The vulnerable and poor people are less able to fend for themselves and
are less able to adapt to changing circumstances (Spurgeon et al., 2009;
Ngigi, 2009)
• The population of Nigerians in poverty has been increasing since 1980 as
shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Trends in Relative Poverty Levels in Nigeria
(1980-2010)
Year Poverty Incidence (%) Estimated Total Population
(Millions)
Population in poverty
(Millions)
1980 8.1 65.0 18.26
1985 46.3 75.0 34.73
1992 42.7 91.5 39.07
1996 65.6 102.3 67.11
2004
2010
54.4
69.0
126.3
163.0
68.70
112.50

Materials & Methods
• Comparable time series dataset on agricultural production and sustainability
outcomes, including political systems (military or democratic rule) and
international development agenda (pre-millennium development goals era
or millennium development goals era) spanning 1961- 2012
• Descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations and coefficients of
variation) and inferential statistical models (analysis of variance) were
employed.

Materials & Methods
• Scope of study
• This review presents the policy responses (including, past and recent
developments) of government of Nigeria towards combating climate change
and its impacts. We focus on water supply for agriculture and extreme
rainfall events
• Data type and sources
• Data used for the review and analysis were extracted from statistical bulletin
of the National Bureau of Statics (NBS, 2014) and the other publications

Materials & Methods
• Analytical techniques
• The analytical techniques involved empirical analyses and narratives on
water resources (including, trends in rainfall, hydrological areas)
• A synthesis of the vulnerability to water supply and climate change

Results & Discussion
• Trends in rainfall and extreme rainfall events in Nigeria
 The results in Table 2 reveal average rainfall of 355 (±64.24) millilitres. The
frequency of extreme rainfall events (flooding incidences) in Nigeria has
been on increase in 1970

Table 2. Rainfall, Flooding and Irrigation in Nigeria, 1970-2012.
Period Duration
(number of
years)
Rainfall in
millilitre
Change in
rainfall in
millilitre
Proportion of arable land
under irrigation (mean &
standard deviation)
Change in
proportion of arable
land under irrigation
Occurrence of flooding
(number of time in
years)
1970-1979 10 379.90 (57.09) - 1.45 (0.01) - 4
1980-1989 10 352.30 (70.44)
-27.60
1.40 (0.03)
-0.05
7
1990-1999 10 326.40 (93.91)
-25.90
1.59 (0.05)
0.19
3
2000-2009 10 354.96 (17.27)
28.56
1.86 (0.07)
0.17
2
2010-2012 3 382.07 (17.94)
27.11
1.99 (0.02)
0.13
2
1970-2012 43 355.39 (64.24) - 1.61 (0.21) - 18

Synthesis of the vulnerability to water supply and climate change
Climate risk Impact Vulnerability system Effects
Increased
precipitation
Flooding Water supply (groundwater) Equipment failure
Flooding of intake system
Water supply (reservoir) Pollution of service reservoirs
Flooding of taps and float valves increase risk of
contamination
Flooding of essential unit process
Decreased
precipitation
Water scarcity Agricultural production and
food security
Drought and reduction in agricultural production
Falling groundwater levels low flows in surface waters
Salinity of groundwater affects water supplies
Food security challenge

Policy responses to vulnerability to water supply and climate change in
Nigeria
Policy framework Remarks/coverage
River Basin Development Programme Provide large scale irrigation and drainage for enhancing all-year round
agricultural production
Fadama Projects (I-III) Provide small-scale irrigation (surface and tubewells) for farmers in low-
lying water areas
National Integrated Water Resources Management
Commission Draft Bill
Has provisions for development of water catchment management plan
and water efficiency strategies
Vision 20 : 2020 – First National Implementation
Plan Sectoral Plans and Programmes
Recognises climate change impacts on the environment and water
resources for agriculture.
National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action
(NASPA)
Climate change adaptation strategies

Conclusion
• Water resources related climate change impacts in Nigeria are manifested
in form of extreme rainfall events (flooding and droughts)
• Nigeria’s high vulnerability to climate change events are due to a number of
factors, including the geographical characteristics, limited capacity to adapt,
dependence on climate-sensitive resources, teeming population,
concentration of GDP generating industry in locations that are highly
vulnerable to climate change, and high levels of poverty

Conclusion
• Impacts of climate risks are flooding and water scarcity (drought). Flooding
incidences have been recorded for as much as 18 times representing 42
percent of times over the study period of 1970-2012
• These impacts render the citizen vulnerable to the effects of flooding
through inundation, pollution, contamination of taps and valves as well as
falling groundwater levels and food security challenges

Recommendations
• Need to enhance the development of small-scale and large-scale irrigation
schemes for agricultural development
• Provide safety net for vulnerable groups (conditional cash transfers),
disaster risk management (insurance system), and environmental protection
(drainage and afforestation), climate change financing and development of
business models
• Need to promote the development of climate financing, resilient/smart
agriculture, adoption of appropriate adaptive strategies, and climate
mitigation measures in order to sustain economic development of the
largest economy in Africa - Nigeria

Acknowledgements
• The Climate Impact Research Capacity and Leadership Enhancement
(CIRCLE) programme
• Our universities (University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria and Kwame Nkrumah
University of Science and technology, Kumasi, Ghana)
• African Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium
and the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network
UNSDSN)

Thank you for your attention

Olayide et al.icsd 2015

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