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La prise de décision

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45% de nos décisions sont mauvaises. Savez-vous pourquoi ?

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La prise de décision

  1. 1. 1 “45 % of all our decisions are wrong” WHY? Roger Claessens, Prof. UBI www.rogerclaessens.be
  2. 2. 2 Could your neighbour introduce YOU?
  3. 3. Why than such a high %? 3
  4. 4. 4 You may remember the…
  5. 5. 5 Steps 1. Define 2. Measure 3. Analyse 4. Innovate or Improve 5. Control DMAIC
  6. 6. 6 7 Stages 1 Define 2 Causes of problem 3 Possible solutions 4 Decide 5 Responsibilities 6 Evaluate results 7 Test
  7. 7. 7 3 R’s Reflect Respond Revise
  8. 8. 8 Maths    im i m im  2 m  
  9. 9. 9 We have TOOLS, don’t we?
  10. 10. THE COMPLEXITY OF DECISION MAKING
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  13. 13. MARGIN CALL 13
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  15. 15. • You are in the Arizona desert in the hottest time of the year. You know that you are about 125 km from the nearest town. Fortunately you have some pieces of equipment and items left that you could use for your survival. • The decision to make is: either to stay put and wait for help or move and walk the 75 miles to the nearest town. Whatever the decision it needs to be taken unanimously! 15
  16. 16. • Compass • Small transistor radio • Shaving mirror • Snake repellent • 1,5-liter of water per person • 4 square meter of plastic • Mosquito netting • 1 case of rations • Maps of the desert 16 • Cushions • 5 litre of an oil/gas mixture • 1 bottle of rum • Two boxes of chocolate • 5 meter of ropes • One boomerang
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  18. 18. Decision making 18
  19. 19. 19 Intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason
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  21. 21. Decision Making Intuition =Recognition We are often wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are 21
  22. 22. Decision Making • System 1 operates automatically and quickly with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. It includes the innate skills that we share with other animals. 22
  23. 23. • System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. It requires attention and effort. 23 Decision Making
  24. 24. Decision Making Overestimation of intuition and underestimation of what we need for the analytical part of the decision making process will induce: IRRATIONAL PERSEVERANCE 24
  25. 25. Decision Making When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe the arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound. 25
  26. 26. Decision Making High intelligence does not make people immune to biases! 26
  27. 27. Decision Making The illusion that one has understood the past feeds the further illusion that one can predict and control the future. 27
  28. 28. Decision Making • It is natural for System 1 to generate overconfident judgements, because confidence is determined by the coherence of the best story you can tell from the evidence at hand. • Therefore your intuitions will deliver predictions that are too extreme and you will be inclined to put far too much faith in them. 28
  29. 29. Decision Making Expertise depends essentially on the quality and speed of feedback, as well as on sufficient opportunity to practice. 29
  30. 30. Decision Making • When faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the Substitution • There are several ways human choices deviate from the rules of Rationality 30
  31. 31. We have the illusion of making decisions! MIT _ TED Talks 31
  32. 32. SO, WHAT DO WE DO? 32
  33. 33. Think Different Kick start your brain. New ideas come from watching something, talking to people, experimenting, asking questions, getting out of the office - Steve Jobs http://steve-jobs-biography.pics-grabber.appspot.com/ Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2011
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  38. 38. WHAT MOTIVATES YOU? 38
  39. 39. •DO YOU FEEL YOU THINK EFFECTIVELY? 39
  40. 40. •DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW? 40
  41. 41. This is the result of a way of thinking: Better Faster Cheaper Smaller Simpler Smarter 41
  42. 42. CONSEQUENCES! 42
  43. 43. • What were the CONSEQUENCES of the wrong decisions? • What would have been CORRECT decisions? 43 Discussion
  44. 44. GSM MERCHANT BANK 44
  45. 45. CAR DEALERSHIP 45
  46. 46. The 20 steps for good DECISIONS Examine every alternative Use previous decisions if the are still applicable Make long term decisions with the short term in mind Change decisions that are no longer appropriate Consider the implications of each decision 46
  47. 47. The 20 steps for good DECISIONS Try to foresee and prepare for any changes Always ask what can go wrong with your decision Always consider the possible outcomes Always try to balance intuition and logic Avoid making decision that have a large element of chance in them 47
  48. 48. The 20 steps for good DECISIONS Follow a precedent when it works Challenge the company culture if need be Be aware of politics behind decisions Weigh the impact of decisions on people Do not be afraid to delegate the process 48
  49. 49. The 20 steps for good DECISIONS 49 Do not be afraid of rejection, think about an alternative Build your trust in decision making Never make decisions under pressure If it proves to be a wrong decision, take fast action Never postpone vital decisions – make them quickly
  50. 50. Decisions…, don’t forget the MYTHS 50
  51. 51. 51 WHAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DO AFTER A GOOD DECISION
  52. 52. contact@rogerclaessens.be
  53. 53. « Thinking, fast and slow, Daniel Kahneman,; Penguin Books, 2011 « Blink » Malcolm Gladwell, Back Bay Books, 2005 « Inside Steve’s Brain », Leander Kahney, Atlantic Books, 2008 « The black swan », N.Taleb, Pinguin 2007 « Organisational culture and leadership », Edgar H, Schein, Jossey- Bass, 2010 53

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