Will goodhand advanced quant - 2011 - 2

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Advanced
Quant
Techniques

July
14,
2011

The
Pursuit
of
Happiness…

Can
emo:ons
predict
in-‐market

performance?

Will
Goodhand,
Brainjuicer

2
2
The Pursuit of Happiness…
Can emotions predict
in-market performance?
Award
Winner
2007
2007
Award
Winner
2007
2007
Award
Winner
2007
S London S Rotterdam S Lausanne S Hamburg S New York S Chicago S LA S Toronto S Melbourne S Shanghai S Sao Paulo
A Leading International Online research agency
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011

3
Introducing System 1 vs. System 2 Thinking…

4
Implicit has greater processing power (and is less effortful)
System 2
System 1
50 bit/sec
11,000,000 bit/sec
Zimmerman, M. (1989) "The Nervous System in the
Context of Information Theory".
We
are
not

thinking

machines
that

feel;
we
are

feeling
machines

that
think

Antonio
Damasio


5
Can you tell what it is in the picture?

6
The way we think
fffddddggg

7
The way we think
fffddddggg

8
The way we think
green

9
The way we think
green

10
The way we think
blue

11
The way we think
red

12
The way we think
blue

13
Intuitive Judgement
A
bat
and
a
ball
cost
$1.10
in
total.

The
bat
costs
$1
more
than
the
ball.

How
much
does
the
ball
cost?

People
are
not
accustomed
to
thinking
hard,
and
are
oBen
content
to

trust
a
plausible
judgement
that
quickly
comes
to
mind.

Daniel
Kahnemann,
Nobel
Prize
Winner


14
Human behaviour driven by two independent brain systems, 1 & 2 …
Explicit

Slow

AnalyIcal

Learned

ProposiIonal

Conscious

System 2
Implicit

Fast

IntuiIve

InsIncIve

Metaphoric

Unconscious

System 1

15
Current view is that emotion simply helps message cut through…

16
But new evidence reveals that the most effective advertising draws
people closer to the brand…

Dec 10
17
Paul Ekman

18
As seen in Lie To Me Hit TV Series based on Paul Ekman s work

19
“Which of these faces best expresses
how you feel about this ad?”
“To what degree did this
ad make you feel
[selected emotion]?”
“And what was it about this
idea that made you feel this way?”
FaceTrace® - Measuring Emotional Appeal
BrainJuicer® 2006
Contempt
Surprise
Anger
Disgust
Happiness
Sadness
Fear
Neutral
Captures Reasons for Emotion
1
Award
Winner
2007
2007
Award
Winner
2007
Award
Winner
2007
2007

Dec 10
20
Emotional campaigns outperform rational, info-based campaigns…
16%
26%
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Emotional Ad Strategy Combined Rational Ad Strategy
Campaign strategy
Vlargeprofitgains(%reporting)
Emotional advertising campaigns are more effective & more
profitable than rational campaigns - even in 'rational' categories…
Les Binet & Peter Field
Marketing in the Era of
Accountability, 2007
(IPA dataMINE analysis
study on 880 case studies).
“…The most effective advertisements of all are
those with little or no rational content

21
Dec 10
21
Fame Campaign examples

22
Which of these faces best expresses
how you feel about this advert?
To what degree did this
advert make you feel
[selected emotion]?
What was it about this advert
that made you feel this way?
[Use patented MindReader®
to capture reasons]
Measuring the Cadbury Gorilla Emotionally with FaceTrace®
BrainJuicer © 2006
Contempt
Surprise
Anger
Disgust
Happiness
Sadness
Fear
Neutral
Award
Winner
2007
2007

23
Cadbury Gorilla Ad
The best ad around! I just love it!!!! it is different
and memorable
Great ad, gets people talking about it,
memorable
What does a gorilla playing the drums have to do
with chocolate?
Don't understand the connection between a
gorilla and chocolate
First time I saw it I was really surprised it was for
Excellent ad, not quite sure what gorilla
represents, but who cares. Fantastic
Ad is brilliant and gorilla makes me laugh, its
very clever and easy to remember
Not what I was expecting. Trying to work out
whether the gorilla was real...
Bizarre and unique. Makes you watch
the whole ad to find the tagline.
Good filming, but what has it to do with
chocolate?
Cannot see what the connection was between
Phil Collins, Gorilla & Chocolate
12
65
16
1
5
2.17
1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%ofrespondents
Intensity Score
measured on a
scale from 0 to +3
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise

24
Cadbury s most effective ad ever
12
6
65
43
16
43
5 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CDM (Gorilla) Commercial ads norm
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise
2.17 1.33
-1
0
1
2
How easy it
is to
understand
How relevant
it is to you
How
persuasive
you found it
How much it
told you
about the
brand
CDM Gorilla UK TV ad test norm
Very Positive
Negative
Emotional
Intensity
(0 to +3)
Would NOT have been progressed
on usual information measures
WOULD have been progressed on
emotional engagement measures
S  Masterbrand payback 171% vs
previous campaigns
S  Revenue ROI of £4.88 for every £1
spent (vs £3.16 for previous
persuasion campaign)
S  Hardened price elasticity by 27%

Month Yr
25
FaceTracing Output: Phil Collins
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Start2
sec4
sec6
sec8
sec10
sec12
sec14
sec16
sec18
sec20
sec22
sec24
sec26
sec28
sec30
sec32
sec34
sec36
sec38
sec40
sec42
sec44
sec46
sec48
sec50
sec52
sec54
sec56
sec58
sec60
sec62
sec64
sec66
sec68
sec70
sec72
sec74
sec76
sec78
sec80
sec82
sec84
sec86
sec88
sec90
sec
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise

Month Yr
26
Heineken Walk-In Fridge

Heineken Walk-in Fridge…
…would not have been progressed on cognitive KPIs
27
7
12
43
63
40
21
4
02
3 3
1.33 2.10
1 1
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happiness
Surprise
Intensity Score
Finished TV-
ad Norm
- Click -
to watch advertisement
- Heineken Walk-In fridge ad -
Emotional measurement shows
how brilliant the ad really is
-‐ 1
0
1
Relevant Persuasive Made you
want buy the
product
How much it
told about
brand
UK TV ad test norm
Very Positive
Very Negative
Finished TV-
ad Norm
Would not have been progressed on
cognitive KPIs

28
Both strongly outperform UK benchmark on Emotion-into-ActionTM
1%
22%
28%
31%
16%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
<65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 >86
Emotion-into-Action™ Score
% of Cases
(UK finished film norm)
= Great ads
= Good ads
= Mediocre ads
84
85

…Enjoyed by millions of people on the web
29
R
2
= 0.79
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5
Emotional Intensity Score
YouTubeHits
More Emotional Appeal = Exponential Growth in Fame

Dec 10
30
71
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Not Pre-tested Pre-tested
Traditional pre-testing actually REDUCES ad effectiveness
Cases with favourable pre-testing results
did significantly worse in market
than those that were not tested
- Binet & Field, Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2008
Source: Marketing in the Era of Accountability, Binet & Field, 2008.
Analysis from the IPA DataMine effectiveness database.
Effectiveness Success Rate %

31
The Dirty Little Secret of Traditional Ad Pretesting
71
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Not Pre-tested Pre-tested
The dirty little secret of traditional, information-based ad
pretesting is that it s actually making things worse, by
actively discriminating against the best creative & most
effective work and suggesting improvements to fit it s
rational, information-based agenda.

32
So are all categories driven by emotion?

Month Yr
33
World Exclusive: IPA experiment correlating big business effects
XL Business
Effects
S 18 Ad campaigns – all submitted for IPA most effective campaign award
S Key criterion: # of very large business effects achieved, for example:
S market share gain
S reduction of price sensitivity
S increased penetration
S profit gain
S loyalty gain
S Experiment: which KPI can best select most effective 9 out of these 18 ads?

34
Emotion-into-Action™ score is the best predictor of Ad Effectiveness
Traditional KPIs actually discriminate against most effective ads…
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.33
1.78
2.56
2.00
2.33
1.78
2.56
1
2
3
Best 9
Ads
Bottom 9
Ads
Best 9
Ads
Bottom 9
Ads
Best 9
Ads
Bottom 9
Ads
Best 9
Ads
Bottom 9
Ads
Best 9
Ads
Bottom 9
Ads
Base: 18 ads for which business effectiveness data is available from the IPA
Average number of very large business effects achieved
for top and bottom 9 ads when ordered on each measure
Emotion-into-
Action™
Persuasion Established Industry
Cut-through
Measure Equivalent
Specific
Key Message
= on Message
Brand Linkage

Month Yr
35
Emotion-into-Action™ has a strong, positive correlation with efficiency;
Traditional cognitive KPIs actually show a negative correlation
0.37
-0.05
-0.27
-0.16
-0.30
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Emotion-into-
Action
Persuasion Established Industry
Cut-through
Measure Equivalent
Brand Linkage
Base: 10 ads for which SOM and ESOV data is
available from the IPA
Specific
Key Message
= on Message
+ - - - -
Extent to which variation in each measure explains variation in efficiency
(R-squared values) – with positive or negative correlations marked (+/-)

Month Yr
36 36
Guide to Likely Business Effects
Profit gain extremely likely
Share gain very likely
Reduction in price sensitivity likely
Viral potential in some cases
Profit gain quite likely
Share gain likely
Profit gain possible
Share gain potential limited
Negative return on marketing investment quite likely
Negative return on marketing investment likely
Blockbuster
Must See
Solid Performance
Pedestrian
Straight to Video

60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Efficiency
Indication of Efficiency using Emotion-into-Action™ Score
Efficiency = share gain/extra share of voice
Note: colour = confidence band (based on average size of 95% confidence interval for efficiency values)
CDM Gorilla
ROI £1.85*
IPA Silver
* Calculated using a reported
revenue ROI of £4.88 and a reported
conservative industry estimate for
gross margin of 38%. Source:
Advertising Works 19, WARC, 2010

Month Yr
38
4 6
10
2
6 3 2
19
46
25
52
41
50
46
62
41
45
44
35
53
39
45
33
37
2
0
0 0
0 0 0 00
0
0 0
0 0 0 11
2
1 1
0 0
2 0
2
1 12
15
2 3 4 5
1 20
8
0 0
0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rickards
AWARD
WINNER
Brand A McDonald's
AWARD
WINNER
Brand B McCain Sweet
Potato
Superfries
AWARD
WINNER
Brand C A Pillsbury
Ready to Bake
Cookies
AWARD
WINNER
Brand D
%ofrespondents
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happiness
Surprise
CASSIES Experiment Canada: Emotional Response
Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about the advert you saw?
72.2 59.6 75.6 70.0 73.2 71.2 78.4 73.6
Emotion-into-
Action™Score
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
Beer Fast Food Frozen Potatoes Home Baking Mixes

40
Tropicana Fruit to the City

41
Tropicana Breakfast in New York

42
1 1
6
72
66
43
27
30
43
100
1 2 58
913
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Brand X: Ad A Brand X: Ad B Commercial ads
norm
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise
Tropicana: Emotional response a better predictor of ROI
Emotional
Intensity
(0 to +3)
1.79 1.66
ROI*: £1.83 £1.73
*ROI measured by Nielsen
1.33
5.08
5.00
5.47
5.22
5.17
5.13
4.5
5
5.5
How much it
told you about
the brand
How relevant it
is to you
How persuasive
you found it
Brand X: Ad A Brand X: Ad B

43
60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Efficiency
43
Indication of Efficiency using Emotion-into-Action™ Score
Efficiency = share gain/extra share of voice
Note: colour = confidence band (based on average size of
95% confidence interval for efficiency values)
Tropicana
Fruit to City
ROI £1.73
Tropicana Breakfast
in New York
ROI £1.83
IPA Silver
* Calculated using a reported
revenue ROI of £4.88 and a reported
conservative industry estimate for
gross margin of 38%. Source:
Advertising Works 19, WARC, 2010

Q & A
Will Goodhand
BrainJuicer
Andrew Jeavons
Survey Analytics

45
July 11March 2010
45
More info?
Will Goodhand
Juicy Evangelist
will.goodhand@brainjuicer.com
+44 7980 673 186
www.brainjuicer.com

Will goodhand advanced quant - 2011 - 2

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