Presentation- Fourth meeting of the Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation -Wildfires, Marta Arbinolo OECD

1. ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE
IN THE MANAGEMENT OF WILDFIRES
Catherine Gamper, Marta Arbinolo and Brooke Demchuk
OECD Environment Directorate
4th TFCCA Meeting, 8th March 2022

2. Context and objectives
• OECD-Placard conference;
• Objective: support countries in understanding and better
managing evolving wildfire risk under climate change;
• Strong links with other ongoing OECD work, e.g. on
adaptation measurement/IPAC, risk management and
financing, infrastructure protection;

3. Deliverables under the programme of work 2021-22
3
In-depth review of selected countries
Review of wildfires science, impacts and trends
Policy and institutional assessment + policy guidance
Workshops to share experience and discuss findings
Country case
studies
Comprehensive
stock-take
Policy analysis
and guidance
Peer-learning
2022
2022
2022
2021

4. Emerging findings: Climate change and wildfire risk
Climate change exacerbates fire risk, adding to
existing risk drivers in many regions:
• The global fire season length increased by 19% (1979-
2013) and expected to increase in the future (e.g.
Amazonia fire season duration to increase by 74% with
1.5°C warming (+414% with 4°C))
• Fire frequency and intensity are growing, affecting new
areas (UK: average number of fire danger days to increase
four fold by 2080 (Arnell et all, 2021);
• Ignition risk: every +1°C warming associated with 12%
increase in lighting;
• Uncertainty and complexity of fire events are growing;
Source: Jones et al., 2022

5. Emerging findings: Attribution of climate change in past wildfire events
• 2018 Bushfires in northern Queensland: climate change increased the risk of hot, dry weather
that drove the extremity of the fires by 30%;
• In California, climate change has doubled the number of extreme risk days that could spark
wildfires (experiencing above average warming);
• In France, climate change responsible for nearly half of observed increases in fire weather in
southern France
• In Sweden, the 2018 fires were
1.1 times more likely to occur because
of climate change; (Krikken et al., 2019)
Source: Goss et al., 2020 “Climate change is increasing the likelihood of
extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California”

6. Emerging findings: Environmental impacts of wildfires
Extreme fires can significantly alter ecosystems and
habitats:
 Biodiversity (e.g. 3 billion animals killed in Australia in 2020)
 Soil (e.g. wildfire-induced erosion in California (2017) causing
debris flow)
 Water flow and quality; air pollution;
Feedback loops between wildfires and climate change:
 Most past fire emissions balanced out by vegetation regrowth
– past two decades saw more carbon emitted than sequestered
due to more intense fires in Canada and Siberia;
 Reduced albedo increasing atmospheric warming

7. Emerging findings: Socio-economic costs of wildfires
Social impacts
• Direct and indirect loss of life: wildfire
smoke estimated to cause over 340,000
premature deaths annually;
• Displacement: Bushfires triggered 65,000
internally displaced people; 2020 Syria fires
25,000 internally displaced people;
Macroeconomic impacts due to asset loss and
disruption, lower productivity and forgone revenues,
response costs, contingent liabilities, etc.
• Bushfires led to GDP losses up to 1.6% in New
South Wales;
Direct and indirect economic
impacts
• 2012 Amazon fires: estimated USD 50 mil
direct losses, USD 100 mil indirect losses
(UNDP, 2022)
• Infrastructure damages from Bushfires
estimated to exceed USD 26/hectare;

8. Assessment of current and future policy responses
• Assess current policy responses towards
their “fit for purpose” in light of recent fire
and future expected fire events;
• Look at how policy responses need to
adapt to the future uncertainty and impacts
of climate change:
• Less emphasis on suppression
• Prevention-focused risk reduction
• Resilience-oriented recovery efforts

9. Country case studies: Overview and next steps
• Objectives
• Deep dives in countries’ policy and
institutional frameworks
• Highlight best practices, policy gaps
and lessons learned
• Timeline: March to September
• Structure
• Case study template (same for all case studies)
• Best practices in wildfire risk prevention
• Information also integrated in policy analysis
chapter
• Engagement: 7 countries confirmed

10. Policy guidance and peer-learning: Next steps
• Policy guidance:
• Based on desk-based research and case
studies
• Provide policy recommendations that assist
countries in building their economic and societal
resilience to wildfires
• 2 workshops to be held in June and December
2022, to:
• Bring together the policy communities of the
case study countries
• Share experiences and best practices
• Discuss draft findings and policy guidance

11. 1. Does the proposed framing of the policy work resonate with the
challenges faced in your country?
2. Are the proposed activities to engage countries in case studies
and in cross-country dialogues appropriate? Do you have
additional suggestions?
3. What outcome would you hope to see coming out of this project?
4. What type of guidance would you like to emerge from this work?
Questions for discussion

12. Thank you!
Catherine.Gamper@oecd.org
Marta.Arbinolo@oecd.org
https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/adaptation-task-force/

13. Country case studies: Options for engagement
Engagement
Process
Information sharing
(Option 1)
Questionnaire + optional additional
information
Costa Rica + others (still open to other
countries willing to participate)
Deliverable
Selected information/best practices to
be showcased in policy analysis chapter
Full case studies
(Options 2-3)
Portugal, Australia, USA, Chile +
Greece, Israel
Questionnaire + stakeholder
interviews + desk research
Drafted country-specific review
(template + best practices)