WCRP 2023 Conference Outlines Urgent Climate Actions

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
The Kigali Outcome: Climate Science for a Sustainable Future for all
Detlef Stammer (WCRP JSC Chair)

WCRP 2023 Open Science Conference
• Transformative conference, with many contributions
from the impact and social sciences underpinning WCRPs
vison of climate science to ensure a more resilient present
and sustainable future for humankind.
• Conference was held in Africa in recognition of the
disparities in the drivers and consequences of climate
change around the world; persistent inequities in the global
scientific community that undermines and disadvantages the
knowledge contribution from communities in resource poor
nations; and a collective commitment to address both.
• Almost 1500 delegates participated in the hybrid event
(around 50% onsite). 32% of the delegates were from Africa
and 26% from other regions of the Global South.

Conference was organized along three overarching themes, each
convening about 13 sessions:
Theme 1: Advances in Climate Research
Theme 2: Human Interactions with Climate
Theme 3: Co-produced Climate Services and Solutions
Overarching topics were discussed in daily “Plenaries”
• Climate Change and Society
• Climate Change and the Earth System
• Climate Change Solutions

• The world is in a state of polycrises leading to cascading
systemic risk and increasing inequality, with unabated climate
change being one of the greatest threats to humanity.
• Probability is rising for complex and compound extremes,
leading to cascading hazards, severe weather events, prolonged
droughts, heatwaves, devastating floods and landslides, and
wild/forest fires.
• Human-induced changes have led to profound and widespread
changes; global surface temperatures soon surpassing 1.5o.
• Any further delays to climate change mitigation and societal
transformations (adaptation) will exacerbate the impacts and
demand enhanced adaptation and mitigation responses.
• Requires urgent unprecedented societal and technological
transformation on a global scale, for immediately attaining net
zero carbon emissions.
WCRP OSC Delegates Acknowledged

Global community to urgently act to address climate change by
• Committing to significantly increased ambition for climate
mitigation and adaptation, upholding fair principles and
accelerated process of phasing out fossil fuel energy systems;
improving climate knowledge and developing climate decision
support systems at global and regional levels.
• Implementing transformative, ethical and equitable solutions
that are feasible, scalable and fit for purpose to manage complex
risks of inevitable climate impacts. This includes effective nature-
based and technological solutions and behavior change.
• Pledging to develop inclusive, diverse and equitable global
knowledge partnerships between science and all sectors of society
(incl. indigenous knowledge) for accelerated and transformative
action over a 10 to 20-years with emphasis on context-specific and
demand-driven needs, and collaborative leadership from around the
world.
• COP28 needs to inject new urgency into climate action and
societal tansformation, especially in light of the current global
stocktake and NDC assessment.

Climate science community to enabling transformative actions by
• Committing to give equal visibility, voice and opportunity to early
career scientists, marginalized scientists, and historically
disadvantaged scientific communities, and access to resources.
• Expanding the scope of climate research and collaborations, to
bring integrated knowledge to the understanding of human systems,
ecosystems, biodiversity.
• Advance trans-disciplinarity engagement with policymakers and
the broader public in the co-design and co-creation of actionable
knowledge.
• Prioritizing pathways for translating observations and model data
into actionable climate information for informed decision-making
and resilience building; addressing critical data gaps in cities and
informal settlements, the oceans, and data sparse regions.
• Advocating the practices of open science and open education, and
work with the global science funding communities to support their
effective adoption in the Global South, raising value of regional
knowledge.

Agencies, governments, private sector to work with climate science
• Mobilizing resources to sustain fundamental and
solution-oriented climate science needed to develop
actionable climate information, implement climate
adaptation options.
• Providing improved climate change projections with
context-relevant information down to cities scale; tools and
data infrastructure to make these data usable by all to
support climate relevant decision-making.
• Enhancing long-term, sustained and accessible
observations and paleoclimate reconstructions, both
remotely sensed and in situ, to increase space/time
coverage; to monitor behavior impact, to improve climate
assessments and projections.
• Establishing improved climate information and early
warning services, at local and regional scales - to provide
information for adaptation, disaster risk and reduction
strategies.

• Detailed conference outcomes will be made public in the
• “Kigali Declaration: Climate science for a sustainable future for all"
• as well as around 20 concept papers.
• They will be summarised in the following contributions focussing on a selected set of
topics.

Emerging questions for
physical climate science
Outcomes of the WCRP Open
Science Conference 2023
Fundamental
Climate
Research
Human
Interactions
with Climate
Co-produced Climate
Services and Solutions

Fundamental Climate Research
• Observations
• Sustainable observing systems, especially for the Global South
• More open data, including from new hi-res satellite missions
• Climate Model Biases remain far too large
• Higher resolution models + open data & collaborative analysis platforms
• New AI/ML approaches to parameterization
• Regional Climate Variability and Change
• Atmosphere and ocean circulation; polar regions
• Impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols
• Local hazards & extreme events
• Earth System Interactions: nonlinearity and irreversibility
• Attribution, Predictability and Prediction:
• Sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal predictions; connecting attribution
There are many aspects of climate system behaviour for which we still lack
understanding. There is a long-term need for fundamental climate research.
East African Rainfall - Lyon, J. Climate, 2020
Challenges and Opportunities:

Human Interactions with Climate 1
• Global Cycles of Energy and Carbon
• Recent increases in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), only partly
understood incl. role of clouds and implications for climate
sensitivity.
• Large uncertainties remain in the land carbon sink - e.g. roles of
deforestation, land degradation & climatic extremes.
Opportunities incl. new satellite observations and ML methods.
• Water cycle
• Changes in duration and intensity of rain events
• Interactions of climate change with other human influences
(e.g. abstraction, irrigation)
• Lack of observations, especially in Global South, including
groundwater
Loeb et al, GRL, 2021

• Impacts of climate change on: sea level; ecosystems; food security;
water availability; human health; cities.
• Data needs. Needs for high resolution models & including human
behaviour
• Thresholds and “hotspots” for impacts. Compound and cascading risks.
• Attribution of impacts
• Interactions between Climate Change, Nature and People
• Mitigation scenarios including overshoot & climate intervention
• Potential for rapid change and/or irreversible tipping points in the
Earth system, in ecosystems, and in human systems.
• While various CDR and SRM proposals have potential, neither is a
substitute for emissions cuts, and both raise concerns that cannot be
adequately addressed without much more research.
• Land use: understanding the trade-offs and co-benefits of adaptation
& mitigation options.
Human Interactions with Climate 2
Morecroft
et al, 2019
Saatchi et al, 2021

Co-produced Climate Services and Solutions
• Local perspective
• Understanding local context is paramount to achieve benefit
• Integration of indigenous knowledge and collective memory
• Seeing risk through different lenses
• Scaling up learning from individual case studies; holistic approaches
• Open science
• Data accessibility and sharing
• Inclusive and transparent standards for climate services, incl. AI/ML
• Co-production
• Multiple dimensions of equity
• How to combine multiple lines of evidence in a meaningful way, including local data
(incl. socio-economic). Need for new institutions and frameworks?
• Need for equitable partnerships, promoting leadership from within the Global South
which prioritizes its own research agenda
We urgently need climate solutions. These must be co-developed and built on foundations
of robust climate science and data, or they will not deliver the desired benefits.
Rodrigues
& Shepherd
2022

Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 7
Helene Hewitt (UK Met Office, CMIP Panel Co-chair)
COP28, 2nd December 2023
https://esait.webex.com/esait/j.php?MTID=m5cfc90cb24fbb3c87bc179f3da538dcd

Driving science, informing policy
17
• 24 endorsed MIPs
• 25 countries
• 43 institutions
• 131 models
• 322 experiments
• 8450 citations of CMIP6 and
MIP design papers
• Nearly 25 PB of CMIP6 data
• 30+ ESGF data nodes
• Ever wider range of users
CMIP6: biggest
yet!

CMIP supports
…..scientific investigation
• by addressing questions that require long simulations,
large ensembles, and representation of comprehensive
earth system processes.
• by exploiting updated historical forcings, scenarios and
longer, richer observational records.
…..scientific assessments including IPCC
……value added uses including climate services.
The continuing need for multi-model ensembles
18

….to coordinate community-based efforts
to tackle key and timely climate science
questions and facilitate delivery of
relevant multi-model simulations through
shared infrastructure for the benefit of the
climate research community, climate
impact and adaptation practitioners,
national and international climate
assessments, and society at large.
An evolving vision of CMIP
19
CMIP panel, in preparation WCRP Strategic plan, 2019-2028

An evolving CMIP design
A more continuous approach with
small targeted “Fast Track”
experiment sets. The first will
respond to the needs of IPCC
AR7.
CMIP infrastructure, standards
and tools support ongoing science
and assessment activities.
This design reflects extensive
feedback from the modelling
centres and wider user
community.

As the utility of CMIP grows we seek a wider range of voices contributing to CMIP
design, organisation and governance.
The CMIP Task Teams support CMIP experimental design and implementation.
Most task teams focus on the infrastructure required for coordinated experiments
(e.g., data request, forcings….). Others address community needs (e.g., data
access....) or overarching scientific issues (strategic ensemble design).
Fresh Eyes on CMIP integrates the voices of ECRs worldwide into CMIP.
An evolving CMIP organisation
21

• Scenarios will be a core component of the CMIP
AR7 Fast Track.
• ScenarioMIP are currently developing their
experimental protocol with a first proposal for
stakeholder review expected by end of the year.
• A number of task forces have been established:
low/overshoot scenarios, middle/high scenarios,
extensions, CDR and IAM-ESM interactions.
More information at ScenarioMIP webpages.
Scenario development

High scenario:
• Highest plausible emissions scenario, for risk
assessment and potential adaptation needs
Medium scenario:
• Reflect the implications of current policies with no
further strengthening
Low scenarios:
• 1.5 C, 1.5 C with overshoot, well below 2 C
• Explore scenarios consistent with Paris agreement
goals
More information at ScenarioMIP webpages.
Scenario rationale

Emissions-driven simulations
• Resolve carbon cycle and CDR
uncertainties in flagship CMIP7
simulations.
• Define scenarios in terms of activity
pathways (emissions and land use),
rather than concentrations.
Discussion paper
in GMD
http://q-r.to/e-cmip
• Supported by process-
understanding
experiments

• CMIP continues to push the boundaries of
model complexity.
• This means that in addition to emission
driven simulations, models will also include
comprehensive descriptions of aerosols,
interactive ice sheets, methane and
nitrogen.
• Models will be used to explore climate
interventions and to gain further insights
from paleoclimates.
Exploring complexity
IPCC AR6 SYR
Samset et al (2019)

Exploring resolution
• Internal variability, scenario
choices, resolution and
complexity are all important
dimensions of the uncertainty in
projections.
• Model resolution provides more
regional detail and in CMIP7,
resolution will be explored in
HighResMIP2.
• CMIP will also aim to bridge to
km-scale models.
Dunne et al., WMO bulletin, 2023
Lehner et al., 2020

• By delivering a streamlined FastTrack set of
experiments including scenarios provides
opportunity to coordinate more rapidly with
regional downscaling and impacts community
• CMIP is in discussion with the impacts and
adaptation community (VIACS) and CORDEX to
streamline the process as far as possible
Links to impacts and adaptation
community

Thank You
@wcrpcmip
wcrp-cmip
cmip-ipo@esa.int
Please contact
helene.hewitt@metoffice.gov.uk or cmip-
ipo@esa.int with any questions or feedback.
More information can be found at wcrp-
cmip.org with the latest on future CMIP
planning at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip7/

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
CORDEX
Knowledge gaps and scientific challenges: Focus on
regional information
UNFCCC COP28, Dubai, UAE
December 2nd, 2023
Co-chairs: Silvina A. Solman and Daniela Jacob

CORDEX for Impact and Adaptation
The chain from global to local
- from data to knowledge to societal benefit -
Regional Climate Model (RCM)
12-25 km, CORDEX standard
Very High Resolution Convection
Permitting Model (CPRCM), 1-3 km
Global Climate Model (GCM)
Empirical Statistical
Downscaling /
Emulators (ML/IA) CMIP6 CORDEX
Protocol

 Regional Climate features
 End-to-end perspective
 Extreme
precipitation/events with
large socio-economic
impacts;
 Water supply – drought
(crops, health), land slides
(infrastructure)
 Actionable climate
information (NAPs)
 Model complexity
Urban
climate
Convection
permitting
modeling
Land use,
land change
Aerosols
Climate
Hazards
Hydrology
Coupled
models
Local/regional challenges with large
socioeconomic impacts
Flagship Pilot Studies
1) Process Understanding;
2) Providing climate information;
3) Building capacity

Challenges and opportunities
1) Understanding of the regional climate change signal
 Adding Earth system components to RCMs (urban, aerosols, ocean, dynamic
vegetation, hydrology, groundwater, etc.) to capture additional feedback
processes relevant at the regional scale;
 Integrating scientific knowledge advances for providing benchmarks (aerosol forcing, land use
change, RESMs, risks for low lying islands)
 Including Human interventions (LULCC, alteration of the water cycle), which may
have very strong impacts on some regions, apart from GHG forcing and natural
variability.
 Coordinated standardized high resolution (convection permitting) simulations
for smaller domains focusing on specific phenomena.
 Providing benchmark for convection permitting modeling for km-scale
initiatives at the global scale (e.g. Digital Earth WCRP Light house Activity)

2) Improving the Quality of the information provided at the
regional/local scales for climate action
 Model evaluation based on budgets (energy/water) at the regional scale
 Coordinated model validation and better integration between RCMs and
ESDs
 Integration of AI models and ML RCM emulators through the use of high-
resolution simulation outputs for enlarging the ensembles at low computational
cost for impact studies
 Understanding the user context for producing actionable climate information
based on model data
 Collaboration between the existing modelling efforts by establishing a CORDEX
Island FPS which will help building enhanced capacity to better support the
climate change data needs of island nations

 Improve community access to climate information and services in the
Global South
 Enhance capacity development, training and infrastructure over regions
vulnerable to climate change
 Include local knowledge/ best practices and the connection with
regional and local stakeholders for improving the provision of actionable
climate data
3) Building capacity: Empowering regional scientists

Thank you for your attention!
For more information you can contact CORDEX co-
chairs:
Silvina A. Solman (solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar) or
Daniela Jacob (d.jacob@hereon.de)

IPCC Pavilion at COP28
2 December 2023
Ensuring Equitable Data and Computing Access
Prof Nana Ama Browne Klutse
IPCC Vice Chair WG I

Introduction: Definition
• Ensuring that all individuals and communities have equal
opportunities to data access and utilize computing resources.
• Digital divide disproportionately affect marginalized communities,
further exacerbating existing inequalities.
• We can create a more inclusive and equitable data society

Introduction: Ensuring equitable data
The IPCC introduced
TG-Data: Task Group on data support for climate change assessments working closely with
DDC - Data Distribution Centers
Created in 2019 – succeeds to the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate
Analysis (TGICA)
The purpose of TG Data is:
1. Provide guidance to IPCC DDC to provide curation, transparency traceability and stability of data
and scenarios related to the report of the IPCC
2. Facilitate, in cooperation with DDC, the availability and consistent use of climate change related
data and scenarios
3. Facilitate, in cooperation with DDC the availability and use of climate related data resulting from
the activities of IPCC

Data Distribution Center (DDC) established in 1997
Current composition and responsibilities:
DKRZ (Germany) : Curation and archival of climate simulations (CMIP, WGI)
CIESIN (US): Socio-economic datasets (WGII and III)
CEDA (UK): Final datasets underlying WGI report figures
MetaDataWorks (UK): DDC catalog, help desk, final datasets (WGII and III)
CSIC (Spain): WGI Interactive Atlas
The Center for High Performance Computers at the South
African Center for Scientific and Industrial Research
(CSIR) not part of the DDC but providing access to African
Scientists free of charge.

FAIR principles in IPCC
Data is licensed to allow reuse and derivative work (CC-BY-4.0)
Data is searchable in an online catalog
Data is stored in community formats (CSV, XLSX, netCDF)
Data is accompanied by rich metadata using a standard schema
Data is citable (DOI)

DDC catalog
Continuous improvements to the Catalog web site and search functionality
● Quick data access button
● DOI links
● Tags clean-up
● Steady increase in weekly downloads over the last year

SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Challenges for WG1
WG1 Co-Chairs vision

Cities and Climate Change Report scoping process started (nominations)
Main remaining questions
• - Long or short cycle (Global Stocktake)?
• - WG1/2/3/SYR Assessment reports?
• - Additional Special report(s) beyond the SR Cities?
• - Topic of any additional report?
Work Program defined in January 2024 in plenary

1. - More integration across WGs
2. - Solutions-oriented products
3. - More packed and focused reports
4. - Less workload for authors and TSUs
Tones

Emulator
Warming
levels
WG1 ESM
WCRP-CIMP
New Scenarios
Scientific Links
With WGs
WG1 WG2 WG3
Wait WG1
CIMP7 then
Hope WG3-WCRP
New Scenarios
calibrate
GST
Wait WG1
Atlas
2028
A shorter and more focused AR
report will increase policy
relevance and readability and
give less work to authors
A synchronization of WG1 with
other WGs would better serve the
needs for adaptation and
mitigation assessment; WG1 could
even start after WG3
(accommodating WG2/3 requests to
the WG1 assessment)
Even synthesis report should start first with
scoping, or at least three working groups scoping
together
IPCC
AR?
IPCC
SR?

How to build a vision? Some basics
•  IPCC does not produce research or information
•  Research produces information
•  IPCC assesses and synthesize information
•  IPCC members (governments) define the program of work, topics
needed
• Vision = crossing between what the community plans and what the
governments need

- Mechanisms and fate of carbon sinks due
to land degradation and climate change,
and related consequences on the remaining
carbon budget, CH4 emissions from
wetlands [remaining carbon budgets]
- Managed water cycle in a changing
climate, links between resource, use and
climate [water management & adaptation]
- Overshoot CMIP scenarios, and
CDR/Climate intervention
Knowledge gaps, emerging topics, expectations (examples)
• 1. Complex topics with policy relevance

- - Explain recent record-shattering,
compound regional events, global events
- - Better identify critical regional thresholds
& global warming levels for tipping points,
or climate drivers of ecosystems or social
systems tipping points
- - Explain regional model / observations
differences in trends and variability
-
- - Regional information to impacts
Yearly Max. temperature near British Columbia
WWA, 2022
Wang et al., 2023
Knowledge gaps and emerging topics expectations
• 2. Global AND regional information for mitigation and adaptation policies

Interfaces and discussion points (from WG1)
REGIONAL
CLIMATE
INFORMATION
ATLAS
CMIP
SCENARIOS
& WARMING
LEVELS
CARBON
WATER
WG3 WG2
WG1

• - Inclusion of gray literature and indigenous knowledge
• - Including practitioners in scoping activities
• - Carbon footprint
• - Enhanced inclusivity
Other considerations

• “The choice and actions decided in this decade will
have impacts now and for thousands of years (high
confidence)” AR6 SYR, SPM, C.1
 IPCC needs to deliver timely information using different types of
products
 Consider diversified products
Timeliness of information

Thank you for your attention

WCRP 2023 Conference Outlines Urgent Climate Actions

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