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Physical Science Challenges for AR7

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The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
The Kigali Outcome: Climate Science for a Sustainable Future for all
Detlef Stammer (WCRP JSC Chair)
WCRP 2023 Open Science Conference
• Transformative conference, with many contributions
from the impact and social sciences underpinning WCRPs
vison of climate science to ensure a more resilient present
and sustainable future for humankind.
• Conference was held in Africa in recognition of the
disparities in the drivers and consequences of climate
change around the world; persistent inequities in the global
scientific community that undermines and disadvantages the
knowledge contribution from communities in resource poor
nations; and a collective commitment to address both.
• Almost 1500 delegates participated in the hybrid event
(around 50% onsite). 32% of the delegates were from Africa
and 26% from other regions of the Global South.
Conference was organized along three overarching themes, each
convening about 13 sessions:
Theme 1: Advances in Climate Research
Theme 2: Human Interactions with Climate
Theme 3: Co-produced Climate Services and Solutions
Overarching topics were discussed in daily “Plenaries”
• Climate Change and Society
• Climate Change and the Earth System
• Climate Change Solutions
• The world is in a state of polycrises leading to cascading
systemic risk and increasing inequality, with unabated climate
change being one of the greatest threats to humanity.
• Probability is rising for complex and compound extremes,
leading to cascading hazards, severe weather events, prolonged
droughts, heatwaves, devastating floods and landslides, and
wild/forest fires.
• Human-induced changes have led to profound and widespread
changes; global surface temperatures soon surpassing 1.5o.
• Any further delays to climate change mitigation and societal
transformations (adaptation) will exacerbate the impacts and
demand enhanced adaptation and mitigation responses.
• Requires urgent unprecedented societal and technological
transformation on a global scale, for immediately attaining net
zero carbon emissions.
WCRP OSC Delegates Acknowledged
Global community to urgently act to address climate change by
• Committing to significantly increased ambition for climate
mitigation and adaptation, upholding fair principles and
accelerated process of phasing out fossil fuel energy systems;
improving climate knowledge and developing climate decision
support systems at global and regional levels.
• Implementing transformative, ethical and equitable solutions
that are feasible, scalable and fit for purpose to manage complex
risks of inevitable climate impacts. This includes effective nature-
based and technological solutions and behavior change.
• Pledging to develop inclusive, diverse and equitable global
knowledge partnerships between science and all sectors of society
(incl. indigenous knowledge) for accelerated and transformative
action over a 10 to 20-years with emphasis on context-specific and
demand-driven needs, and collaborative leadership from around the
world.
• COP28 needs to inject new urgency into climate action and
societal tansformation, especially in light of the current global
stocktake and NDC assessment.
Climate science community to enabling transformative actions by
• Committing to give equal visibility, voice and opportunity to early
career scientists, marginalized scientists, and historically
disadvantaged scientific communities, and access to resources.
• Expanding the scope of climate research and collaborations, to
bring integrated knowledge to the understanding of human systems,
ecosystems, biodiversity.
• Advance trans-disciplinarity engagement with policymakers and
the broader public in the co-design and co-creation of actionable
knowledge.
• Prioritizing pathways for translating observations and model data
into actionable climate information for informed decision-making
and resilience building; addressing critical data gaps in cities and
informal settlements, the oceans, and data sparse regions.
• Advocating the practices of open science and open education, and
work with the global science funding communities to support their
effective adoption in the Global South, raising value of regional
knowledge.

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Physical Science Challenges for AR7

  • 1. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) The Kigali Outcome: Climate Science for a Sustainable Future for all Detlef Stammer (WCRP JSC Chair)
  • 2. WCRP 2023 Open Science Conference • Transformative conference, with many contributions from the impact and social sciences underpinning WCRPs vison of climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind. • Conference was held in Africa in recognition of the disparities in the drivers and consequences of climate change around the world; persistent inequities in the global scientific community that undermines and disadvantages the knowledge contribution from communities in resource poor nations; and a collective commitment to address both. • Almost 1500 delegates participated in the hybrid event (around 50% onsite). 32% of the delegates were from Africa and 26% from other regions of the Global South.
  • 3. Conference was organized along three overarching themes, each convening about 13 sessions: Theme 1: Advances in Climate Research Theme 2: Human Interactions with Climate Theme 3: Co-produced Climate Services and Solutions Overarching topics were discussed in daily “Plenaries” • Climate Change and Society • Climate Change and the Earth System • Climate Change Solutions
  • 4. • The world is in a state of polycrises leading to cascading systemic risk and increasing inequality, with unabated climate change being one of the greatest threats to humanity. • Probability is rising for complex and compound extremes, leading to cascading hazards, severe weather events, prolonged droughts, heatwaves, devastating floods and landslides, and wild/forest fires. • Human-induced changes have led to profound and widespread changes; global surface temperatures soon surpassing 1.5o. • Any further delays to climate change mitigation and societal transformations (adaptation) will exacerbate the impacts and demand enhanced adaptation and mitigation responses. • Requires urgent unprecedented societal and technological transformation on a global scale, for immediately attaining net zero carbon emissions. WCRP OSC Delegates Acknowledged
  • 5. Global community to urgently act to address climate change by • Committing to significantly increased ambition for climate mitigation and adaptation, upholding fair principles and accelerated process of phasing out fossil fuel energy systems; improving climate knowledge and developing climate decision support systems at global and regional levels. • Implementing transformative, ethical and equitable solutions that are feasible, scalable and fit for purpose to manage complex risks of inevitable climate impacts. This includes effective nature- based and technological solutions and behavior change. • Pledging to develop inclusive, diverse and equitable global knowledge partnerships between science and all sectors of society (incl. indigenous knowledge) for accelerated and transformative action over a 10 to 20-years with emphasis on context-specific and demand-driven needs, and collaborative leadership from around the world. • COP28 needs to inject new urgency into climate action and societal tansformation, especially in light of the current global stocktake and NDC assessment.
  • 6. Climate science community to enabling transformative actions by • Committing to give equal visibility, voice and opportunity to early career scientists, marginalized scientists, and historically disadvantaged scientific communities, and access to resources. • Expanding the scope of climate research and collaborations, to bring integrated knowledge to the understanding of human systems, ecosystems, biodiversity. • Advance trans-disciplinarity engagement with policymakers and the broader public in the co-design and co-creation of actionable knowledge. • Prioritizing pathways for translating observations and model data into actionable climate information for informed decision-making and resilience building; addressing critical data gaps in cities and informal settlements, the oceans, and data sparse regions. • Advocating the practices of open science and open education, and work with the global science funding communities to support their effective adoption in the Global South, raising value of regional knowledge.
  • 7. Agencies, governments, private sector to work with climate science • Mobilizing resources to sustain fundamental and solution-oriented climate science needed to develop actionable climate information, implement climate adaptation options. • Providing improved climate change projections with context-relevant information down to cities scale; tools and data infrastructure to make these data usable by all to support climate relevant decision-making. • Enhancing long-term, sustained and accessible observations and paleoclimate reconstructions, both remotely sensed and in situ, to increase space/time coverage; to monitor behavior impact, to improve climate assessments and projections. • Establishing improved climate information and early warning services, at local and regional scales - to provide information for adaptation, disaster risk and reduction strategies.
  • 8. • Detailed conference outcomes will be made public in the • “Kigali Declaration: Climate science for a sustainable future for all" • as well as around 20 concept papers. • They will be summarised in the following contributions focussing on a selected set of topics.
  • 10. Emerging questions for physical climate science Outcomes of the WCRP Open Science Conference 2023 Fundamental Climate Research Human Interactions with Climate Co-produced Climate Services and Solutions
  • 11. Fundamental Climate Research • Observations • Sustainable observing systems, especially for the Global South • More open data, including from new hi-res satellite missions • Climate Model Biases remain far too large • Higher resolution models + open data & collaborative analysis platforms • New AI/ML approaches to parameterization • Regional Climate Variability and Change • Atmosphere and ocean circulation; polar regions • Impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols • Local hazards & extreme events • Earth System Interactions: nonlinearity and irreversibility • Attribution, Predictability and Prediction: • Sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal predictions; connecting attribution There are many aspects of climate system behaviour for which we still lack understanding. There is a long-term need for fundamental climate research. East African Rainfall - Lyon, J. Climate, 2020 Challenges and Opportunities:
  • 12. Human Interactions with Climate 1 • Global Cycles of Energy and Carbon • Recent increases in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), only partly understood incl. role of clouds and implications for climate sensitivity. • Large uncertainties remain in the land carbon sink - e.g. roles of deforestation, land degradation & climatic extremes. Opportunities incl. new satellite observations and ML methods. • Water cycle • Changes in duration and intensity of rain events • Interactions of climate change with other human influences (e.g. abstraction, irrigation) • Lack of observations, especially in Global South, including groundwater Loeb et al, GRL, 2021 Challenges and Opportunities:
  • 13. • Impacts of climate change on: sea level; ecosystems; food security; water availability; human health; cities. • Data needs. Needs for high resolution models & including human behaviour • Thresholds and “hotspots” for impacts. Compound and cascading risks. • Attribution of impacts • Interactions between Climate Change, Nature and People • Mitigation scenarios including overshoot & climate intervention • Potential for rapid change and/or irreversible tipping points in the Earth system, in ecosystems, and in human systems. • While various CDR and SRM proposals have potential, neither is a substitute for emissions cuts, and both raise concerns that cannot be adequately addressed without much more research. • Land use: understanding the trade-offs and co-benefits of adaptation & mitigation options. Human Interactions with Climate 2 Morecroft et al, 2019 Saatchi et al, 2021 Challenges and Opportunities:
  • 14. Co-produced Climate Services and Solutions • Local perspective • Understanding local context is paramount to achieve benefit • Integration of indigenous knowledge and collective memory • Seeing risk through different lenses • Scaling up learning from individual case studies; holistic approaches • Open science • Data accessibility and sharing • Inclusive and transparent standards for climate services, incl. AI/ML • Co-production • Multiple dimensions of equity • How to combine multiple lines of evidence in a meaningful way, including local data (incl. socio-economic). Need for new institutions and frameworks? • Need for equitable partnerships, promoting leadership from within the Global South which prioritizes its own research agenda Challenges and Opportunities: We urgently need climate solutions. These must be co-developed and built on foundations of robust climate science and data, or they will not deliver the desired benefits. Rodrigues & Shepherd 2022
  • 16. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 Helene Hewitt (UK Met Office, CMIP Panel Co-chair) COP28, 2nd December 2023 https://esait.webex.com/esait/j.php?MTID=m5cfc90cb24fbb3c87bc179f3da538dcd
  • 17. Driving science, informing policy 17 • 24 endorsed MIPs • 25 countries • 43 institutions • 131 models • 322 experiments • 8450 citations of CMIP6 and MIP design papers • Nearly 25 PB of CMIP6 data • 30+ ESGF data nodes • Ever wider range of users CMIP6: biggest yet!
  • 18. CMIP supports …..scientific investigation • by addressing questions that require long simulations, large ensembles, and representation of comprehensive earth system processes. • by exploiting updated historical forcings, scenarios and longer, richer observational records. …..scientific assessments including IPCC ……value added uses including climate services. The continuing need for multi-model ensembles 18
  • 19. ….to coordinate community-based efforts to tackle key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure for the benefit of the climate research community, climate impact and adaptation practitioners, national and international climate assessments, and society at large. An evolving vision of CMIP 19 CMIP panel, in preparation WCRP Strategic plan, 2019-2028
  • 20. An evolving CMIP design A more continuous approach with small targeted “Fast Track” experiment sets. The first will respond to the needs of IPCC AR7. CMIP infrastructure, standards and tools support ongoing science and assessment activities. This design reflects extensive feedback from the modelling centres and wider user community.
  • 21. As the utility of CMIP grows we seek a wider range of voices contributing to CMIP design, organisation and governance. The CMIP Task Teams support CMIP experimental design and implementation. Most task teams focus on the infrastructure required for coordinated experiments (e.g., data request, forcings….). Others address community needs (e.g., data access....) or overarching scientific issues (strategic ensemble design). Fresh Eyes on CMIP integrates the voices of ECRs worldwide into CMIP. An evolving CMIP organisation 21
  • 22. • Scenarios will be a core component of the CMIP AR7 Fast Track. • ScenarioMIP are currently developing their experimental protocol with a first proposal for stakeholder review expected by end of the year. • A number of task forces have been established: low/overshoot scenarios, middle/high scenarios, extensions, CDR and IAM-ESM interactions. More information at ScenarioMIP webpages. Scenario development
  • 23. High scenario: • Highest plausible emissions scenario, for risk assessment and potential adaptation needs Medium scenario: • Reflect the implications of current policies with no further strengthening Low scenarios: • 1.5 C, 1.5 C with overshoot, well below 2 C • Explore scenarios consistent with Paris agreement goals More information at ScenarioMIP webpages. Scenario rationale
  • 24. Emissions-driven simulations • Resolve carbon cycle and CDR uncertainties in flagship CMIP7 simulations. • Define scenarios in terms of activity pathways (emissions and land use), rather than concentrations. Discussion paper in GMD http://q-r.to/e-cmip • Supported by process- understanding experiments
  • 25. • CMIP continues to push the boundaries of model complexity. • This means that in addition to emission driven simulations, models will also include comprehensive descriptions of aerosols, interactive ice sheets, methane and nitrogen. • Models will be used to explore climate interventions and to gain further insights from paleoclimates. Exploring complexity IPCC AR6 SYR Samset et al (2019)
  • 26. Exploring resolution • Internal variability, scenario choices, resolution and complexity are all important dimensions of the uncertainty in projections. • Model resolution provides more regional detail and in CMIP7, resolution will be explored in HighResMIP2. • CMIP will also aim to bridge to km-scale models. Dunne et al., WMO bulletin, 2023 Lehner et al., 2020
  • 27. • By delivering a streamlined FastTrack set of experiments including scenarios provides opportunity to coordinate more rapidly with regional downscaling and impacts community • CMIP is in discussion with the impacts and adaptation community (VIACS) and CORDEX to streamline the process as far as possible Links to impacts and adaptation community
  • 28. Thank You @wcrpcmip wcrp-cmip cmip-ipo@esa.int Please contact helene.hewitt@metoffice.gov.uk or cmip- ipo@esa.int with any questions or feedback. More information can be found at wcrp- cmip.org with the latest on future CMIP planning at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip7/
  • 30. Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment CORDEX Knowledge gaps and scientific challenges: Focus on regional information UNFCCC COP28, Dubai, UAE December 2nd, 2023 Co-chairs: Silvina A. Solman and Daniela Jacob
  • 31. CORDEX for Impact and Adaptation The chain from global to local - from data to knowledge to societal benefit - Regional Climate Model (RCM) 12-25 km, CORDEX standard Very High Resolution Convection Permitting Model (CPRCM), 1-3 km Global Climate Model (GCM) Empirical Statistical Downscaling / Emulators (ML/IA) CMIP6 CORDEX Protocol
  • 32.  Regional Climate features  End-to-end perspective  Extreme precipitation/events with large socio-economic impacts;  Water supply – drought (crops, health), land slides (infrastructure)  Actionable climate information (NAPs)  Model complexity Urban climate Convection permitting modeling Land use, land change Aerosols Climate Hazards Hydrology Coupled models Local/regional challenges with large socioeconomic impacts Flagship Pilot Studies 1) Process Understanding; 2) Providing climate information; 3) Building capacity
  • 33. Challenges and opportunities 1) Understanding of the regional climate change signal  Adding Earth system components to RCMs (urban, aerosols, ocean, dynamic vegetation, hydrology, groundwater, etc.) to capture additional feedback processes relevant at the regional scale;  Integrating scientific knowledge advances for providing benchmarks (aerosol forcing, land use change, RESMs, risks for low lying islands)  Including Human interventions (LULCC, alteration of the water cycle), which may have very strong impacts on some regions, apart from GHG forcing and natural variability.  Coordinated standardized high resolution (convection permitting) simulations for smaller domains focusing on specific phenomena.  Providing benchmark for convection permitting modeling for km-scale initiatives at the global scale (e.g. Digital Earth WCRP Light house Activity)
  • 34. 2) Improving the Quality of the information provided at the regional/local scales for climate action  Model evaluation based on budgets (energy/water) at the regional scale  Coordinated model validation and better integration between RCMs and ESDs  Integration of AI models and ML RCM emulators through the use of high- resolution simulation outputs for enlarging the ensembles at low computational cost for impact studies  Understanding the user context for producing actionable climate information based on model data  Collaboration between the existing modelling efforts by establishing a CORDEX Island FPS which will help building enhanced capacity to better support the climate change data needs of island nations Challenges and opportunities
  • 35.  Improve community access to climate information and services in the Global South  Enhance capacity development, training and infrastructure over regions vulnerable to climate change  Include local knowledge/ best practices and the connection with regional and local stakeholders for improving the provision of actionable climate data Challenges and opportunities 3) Building capacity: Empowering regional scientists
  • 36. Thank you for your attention! For more information you can contact CORDEX co- chairs: Silvina A. Solman (solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar) or Daniela Jacob (d.jacob@hereon.de)
  • 38. IPCC Pavilion at COP28 2 December 2023 Ensuring Equitable Data and Computing Access Prof Nana Ama Browne Klutse IPCC Vice Chair WG I
  • 39. Introduction: Definition • Ensuring that all individuals and communities have equal opportunities to data access and utilize computing resources. • Digital divide disproportionately affect marginalized communities, further exacerbating existing inequalities. • We can create a more inclusive and equitable data society
  • 40. Introduction: Ensuring equitable data The IPCC introduced TG-Data: Task Group on data support for climate change assessments working closely with DDC - Data Distribution Centers Created in 2019 – succeeds to the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) The purpose of TG Data is: 1. Provide guidance to IPCC DDC to provide curation, transparency traceability and stability of data and scenarios related to the report of the IPCC 2. Facilitate, in cooperation with DDC, the availability and consistent use of climate change related data and scenarios 3. Facilitate, in cooperation with DDC the availability and use of climate related data resulting from the activities of IPCC
  • 41. Data Distribution Center (DDC) established in 1997 Current composition and responsibilities: DKRZ (Germany) : Curation and archival of climate simulations (CMIP, WGI) CIESIN (US): Socio-economic datasets (WGII and III) CEDA (UK): Final datasets underlying WGI report figures MetaDataWorks (UK): DDC catalog, help desk, final datasets (WGII and III) CSIC (Spain): WGI Interactive Atlas The Center for High Performance Computers at the South African Center for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) not part of the DDC but providing access to African Scientists free of charge.
  • 42. FAIR principles in IPCC Data is licensed to allow reuse and derivative work (CC-BY-4.0) Data is searchable in an online catalog Data is stored in community formats (CSV, XLSX, netCDF) Data is accompanied by rich metadata using a standard schema Data is citable (DOI)
  • 43. DDC catalog Continuous improvements to the Catalog web site and search functionality ● Quick data access button ● DOI links ● Tags clean-up ● Steady increase in weekly downloads over the last year
  • 45. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Challenges for WG1 WG1 Co-Chairs vision
  • 46. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Cities and Climate Change Report scoping process started (nominations) Main remaining questions • - Long or short cycle (Global Stocktake)? • - WG1/2/3/SYR Assessment reports? • - Additional Special report(s) beyond the SR Cities? • - Topic of any additional report? Work Program defined in January 2024 in plenary
  • 47. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis 1. - More integration across WGs 2. - Solutions-oriented products 3. - More packed and focused reports 4. - Less workload for authors and TSUs Tones
  • 48. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Emulator Warming levels WG1 ESM WCRP-CIMP New Scenarios Scientific Links With WGs WG1 WG2 WG3 Wait WG1 CIMP7 then Hope WG3-WCRP New Scenarios calibrate GST Wait WG1 Atlas 2028 A shorter and more focused AR report will increase policy relevance and readability and give less work to authors A synchronization of WG1 with other WGs would better serve the needs for adaptation and mitigation assessment; WG1 could even start after WG3 (accommodating WG2/3 requests to the WG1 assessment) Even synthesis report should start first with scoping, or at least three working groups scoping together IPCC AR? IPCC SR?
  • 49. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis How to build a vision? Some basics •  IPCC does not produce research or information •  Research produces information •  IPCC assesses and synthesize information •  IPCC members (governments) define the program of work, topics needed • Vision = crossing between what the community plans and what the governments need
  • 50. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis - Mechanisms and fate of carbon sinks due to land degradation and climate change, and related consequences on the remaining carbon budget, CH4 emissions from wetlands [remaining carbon budgets] - Managed water cycle in a changing climate, links between resource, use and climate [water management & adaptation] - Overshoot CMIP scenarios, and CDR/Climate intervention Knowledge gaps, emerging topics, expectations (examples) • 1. Complex topics with policy relevance
  • 51. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis - - Explain recent record-shattering, compound regional events, global events - - Better identify critical regional thresholds & global warming levels for tipping points, or climate drivers of ecosystems or social systems tipping points - - Explain regional model / observations differences in trends and variability - - - Regional information to impacts Yearly Max. temperature near British Columbia WWA, 2022 Wang et al., 2023 Knowledge gaps and emerging topics expectations • 2. Global AND regional information for mitigation and adaptation policies
  • 52. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Interfaces and discussion points (from WG1) REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION ATLAS CMIP SCENARIOS & WARMING LEVELS CARBON WATER WG3 WG2 WG1
  • 53. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis • - Inclusion of gray literature and indigenous knowledge • - Including practitioners in scoping activities • - Carbon footprint • - Enhanced inclusivity Other considerations
  • 54. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis • “The choice and actions decided in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence)” AR6 SYR, SPM, C.1  IPCC needs to deliver timely information using different types of products  Consider diversified products Timeliness of information
  • 55. SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Thank you for your attention