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DSD-INT 2019 Dutch experience with sea level rise - Jeuken

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Presentation by Ad Jeuken, Deltares, at the Data Science Symposium, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Thursday, 14 November 2019, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2019 Dutch experience with sea level rise - Jeuken

  1. 1. D a t a S c i e n c e S y m p o s i u m 2 0 1 9 Dutch experience with sea level rise Ad Jeuken
  2. 2. Historic pathway in the Netherlands DataScienceSymposium2019 2 After 1000 After 1550 1916- 1932 1953 - 1998 800 ad Delta Program Culverts Drainage ditches Dikes and polders 1916 flood Zuiderzee works 2nd Delta Committee Dwelling mounds Polders and land reclamation 1953 North Sea Flood 1st Delta Committee Delta Works `Anticipate with adaptive planning
  3. 3. Salt water intrusion Nieuwe Maas Hollandsche IJssel Lek Waal Bergsche Maas Oude Maas Noord Spui Dordtsche Kil Haringvliet Hollandsch Diep Nieuwe Waterweg Salt water coming in DataScienceSymposium2019 3
  4. 4. Delta program for long term strategic decisions • Participative programs in 6 regions and nation wide • Central coordination but also regional decision making • National delta decisions framing further regional decision • Flood safety and protection standards • Fresh water supply • Spatial (urban) adaptation • Coherence in analytical approaches • Common scenarios • National models • Knowledge platforms • Adaptive delta management • Signal group (monitoring) • Now in implementation phase but also re-evaluating (SLR) DataScienceSymposium2019 4
  5. 5. DataScienceSymposium2019 Adaptation Pathways approach: explore alternative sequences of decisions to achieve objectives. A scorecard helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions. Monitoring helps to get adaptation signals. Current situation Action A Action B Action C Action D Transfer station to new policy action Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy action (Terminal ) Policy action effective Changing conditions Time high-end scenario Time low-end scenario 0 0 10 70 80 90 100 Years 10 70 80 90 100 Signal Decision node Haasnoot et al. (2013) Glob. Env. Change. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006 5
  6. 6. DataScienceSymposium2019 6 Urban open coast sea-level rise no low medium high Current situation No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation Nourishment Floodgate Wave dissipation structure Floodproofing infrastructure Dikes and Seawalls AccommodateRetreat Land raising Protect Urban delta sea-level rise no low medium high Current situation No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation Floodgate Wave dissipation structure Floodproofing infrastructure Dikes and Seawalls Land raising sea-level rise no low medium high Current situation No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation Storm surge or tidal barrier Floodgate Retention area Floodproofing infrastructure Dikes and Seawalls Urban estuary Rural open coast, delta, estuary sea-level rise no low medium high Current situation No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation Wave dissipation structure Salt/flood tolerant food production Dikes and Seawalls Land raising Haasnoot, Brown et al 2019 ERC https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871
  7. 7. Delta Programme, The Netherlands Prepare for uncertain climate change DataScienceSymposium2019 7 “Adaptation pathways offer a strong approach to show which options are needed and when they should be implemented and how long-term objectives influence short-term decisions.” (Delta Programme 2015) • Iterative participatory process • Opens decision space • Reduced number of pathways in the final plan • Pathways based on short, medium, long term actions • Continuous monitoring
  8. 8. Delta Programme, The Netherlands Prepare for uncertain climate change DataScienceSymposium2019 8
  9. 9. Accelerated sea level rise is asking for a reassessment of decisions DataScienceSymposium2019 9 More uncertain Higher Earlier Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX - Source SLR data: Le Bars et al 2017 ERL
  10. 10. What if we continue the ‘protect’ pathway(s)? What are thresholds for adaptation to sea-level rise? DataScienceSymposium2019 10
  11. 11. A first reassessment in 2018 DataScienceSymposium2019 11
  12. 12. Limits to protect: pump capacity? • Technical, energy and space: no limit • Risk of failure: storage needed to buy time DataScienceSymposium2019 12 • 0.65 m • 1.75 m Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX ,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 #days QIJssel 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Time available to fix pumps depending on SLR and Q
  13. 13. Fresh water supply: reduced availability and increased demand • 1 m: permanent alternative for emergency supply route for Gouda DataScienceSymposium2019 13 • >1 m: increase demand IJsselmeer • 3 m: double amount of storage Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX
  14. 14. Limits in time? • Functional life time of investments decreases: adapt faster or larger DataScienceSymposium2019 14 ~ 65 years ~ 20 years ~10 years Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX - Source SLR data: Le Bars et al 2017 ERL
  15. 15. Potential policy consequences • Rapid increase of adaptation costs over time may exceed accepted budget spending • Skip planned measure, need for longer term options • Extra pressure in case of negative Economic Development DataScienceSymposium2019 15
  16. 16. What choices can we make to adapt to sea level rise? DataScienceSymposium2019 16
  17. 17. Transformational change in long term pathway needed? DataScienceSymposium2019 17
  18. 18. back  close  D a t a S c i e n c e S y m p o s i u m 2 0 1 9 18 Questions? Ad.Jeuken@deltares.nl Marjolijn.Haasnoot@deltares.nl www.deltares.nl

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