Onset of fertility transition by Tim Dyson and Mike Murphy

1. The Onset of Fertility Transition
By
Tim Dyson & Mike Murphy
Master of Population Studies
International Institute for Population Science
Session:2019-20
Master of Population Studies
International Institute for Population Science
Session:2019-20
by
Mihir Adhikary
Manoj Dakua
Masang Hansda
Md. Ibrar Ansari

2.  There is a growing awareness that fertility may undergo a rise before its secular
long-term decline.
 This paper examines available time series on fertility trends in contemporary
developing countries, and draws together studies that support the existence of this
phenomenon.
 It argues that pre-decline rises in fertility have sometimes been substantial, and that
they are a usual feature of both historical and contemporary transitions.
 An analysis of turning points in crude birth rates also suggests that fertility
movements in different developing countries have sometimes exhibited considerable
similarity in timing.
 The paper reviews the most likely causes behind fertility increases, and also argues
that rising fertility has often made a significant contribution to faster population
growth. It concludes by examining implications for matters of population research
and policy.
Introduction

3.  The principal purpose of the present paper is to use available data and analyses to
help articulate the growing awareness that developing country fertility has
frequently risen before it has declined.
Objective

4. Literature Review
Demographers such as Kingsley Davis, Warren Thompson, Frank Lorimer,
and Frank Notestein naturally initially identified the cause of faster growth
as improvements in mortality.
Paul Demeny's investigation of early fertility decline in Austria, Hungary
found pronounced increases in marriage pattern between 1880 and 1910,
particularly in German-speaking provinces, due to declines in the age at
marriage and increases in proportions ever marrying.
Etienne van de Walle's research on France has demonstrated a steady
increase in age of marriage throughout most of the nineteenth century.

5. Methodology
Methodology of research is the science of proper modes and orders of procedure. This paper
mainly based on historical evidence or historical data.
Methodology
• Collection of data- All the data had been collected
from various secondary sources
• Analysis of data- All over fertility rate, marital fertility
rate, Non-Marital fertility rate, marriage, TFR, CBR
etc.
• presentation of the facts- Line graph

6. Data Source
 The type of data they have used most are simple unadjusted crude birth rates
produced by national systems of vital registration.
 The two main types of time series data employed here are annual series of crude
birth rates from vital registration and birth history material from the World
Fertility Survey (WFS).
 They have used two major compilations of annual crude birth rates: the long-run
time series compiled by B. R. Mitchell, and the series for 1948 onward published
by the United Nations.
 They have considered first the most important body of relevant data-that from the
constituent studies of the European Fertility Project directed by Ansley J. Coale.

7. The whole
study
Historical
evidences
Historical
demography
Evidence for
developing
countries
Impact on population
growth
The causes in decline
of fertility
Indicators
All over fertility
rate
marital fertility
rate
Non-Merital
fertility rate
TFR CBR

8.  There is considerable evidence that
pre-decline rises in fertility were
common in historical populations.
 In some cases increasing marital
fertility explains part of the rise. But in
general a more important cause seems
to have been increases in the
proportions of the female population
currently married.
 Clearly the potential for this
mechanism to bring about an increase
in fertility will tend to be greater in
populations where the initial degree of
non-marriage is comparatively great.
Evidence from Historical demography

9. Evidence
For
developing
countries

11. Turning Points in fertility trends

14. The Causes of decline in fertility
Breastfeeding
Marriage
patterns
postpartum
sexual
abstinence
Disease-
related
sterility

15. Impact on population growth
 The contribution of an increase in fertility to more rapid population growth
naturally depends upon the size and duration of the increase.
 over the long run, reductions in death rates have certainly contributed more to the
modem acceleration of population growth-even in Latin America. Nevertheless,
particularly for the 1940s and 1950s, there was good cause to draw attention to
the fertility component behind the "dizzy speed" of faster growth. And, as we
have intimated, rising fertility is a phenomenon probably still relevant to
increasing growth rates in some developing countries today.

16. Conclusion
Greater recognition of the possibility of increasing fertility and its potential role in
more rapid population growth should be relevant considerations to the decision to
introduce and promote the practice of family planning through appropriate policies (or
to adopt policies specifically designed to maintain patterns of breastfeeding). A pre-
decline rise in fertility can actually create a need for family planning even if there is
no change in a population's desired family size. Further, in the short run or even the
medium run, a failure of fertility to decline is not necessarily indicative of poor
program performance; the situation may simply be the outcome of countervailing
influences