1. Daily Technical Outlook
19th January 2012
Indices * Close % Chg.
The domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. However, the
BSE SENSEX 16451.47 -0.09 markets soon slipped in the red on back of selling pressure.
S&P CNX NIFTY 4955.80 -0.23 Selective buying support and short covering were witnessed
NIFTY JAN. FUT. 4957.50 -0.39 at lower levels but markets failed to move higher with
India VIX 22.68 0.30 conviction. The markets remained choppy and volatile as
markets struggled to find a direction. The markets ended the
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels
day with marginal losses to close near the lows for the day.
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
The top losers for the day were Tata Steel, Coal India, SAIL,
Support 4747 4563 4481 M&M, Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro, Ranbaxy, and BHEL.
Resistance 4987 5037 5161
Technically, the market breadth remained negative
Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the
50 Day SMA 4830.19 markets. The global market set of cues are positive. The
◄Negative
100 Day SMA 4937.30 domestic markets are likely to witness a positive
200 Day SMA 5228.18 ◄Negative opening. The Nifty once again fell short of testing the
4987 resistance level. However, the Nifty remains placed
Volume (Lacs Shares) * above its 50-day SMA level and has also moved above its
18/01/12 17/01/12 % Chg. 100-day SMA, which are a short term positive and augurs
BSE 2828 2841 -0.46 well for the markets. The Stochastic, MACD, RSI, and
NSE 7629 7551 1.03 KST are placed above their respective averages, which
Total 10457 10392 0.62 would help in fueling further buying support. The KST
and MACD are also placed in the positive territory.
Turnover ( ` Crores) * Moreover, the Nifty is placed above the October 2011
18/01/12 17/01/12 % Chg. descending trend line. which is a positive sign for the
BSE 2484.53 2684.37 -7.44 markets. However, the prevailing technical negatives
NSE 12187.24 12180.13 0.06 continue to hold good and are likely to cap the upside
NSE F&O 108930.23 122915.63 -11.38
gains around the 5000-5100 levels. The Stochastic is
placed in the over bought territory, which would lead to
Total 123602.00 137780.13 -10.29
intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling pressure
F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * at higher levels. The Nifty continues to trade below its
18/01/12 17/01/12 % Chg.
200-day SMA.. The 50-day SMA is also placed below the
100-day SMA. All these conditions would lead to selling
Index Fut. 435669 455521 -4.36
pressure especially at higher levels. The ADX line, -DI
Stock Fut. 723817 667910 8.37
line are moving sideways. However, the +DI line is placed
Index Opt. 2993319 3589022 -16.60 above the 30 level indicating buyers are gaining strength.
Stock Opt. 267751 272255 -1.65 The market sentiment remains tentatively positive. Now,
Total 4420556 4984708 -12.04 it is important that the markets witness follow up buying
support for the Nifty to test and move above the 4987
Market Breadth (NSE) *
level. Profit taking and selling pressure are likely to be
Advances 433 witnessed at regular intervals. In the meanwhile the
Declines 1070 markets would take cues from the earnings season, the
Same 46 global markets, the crude prices and news flow from the
Total 1549 forthcoming RBI’s monetary policy. The support levels for
A/D Ratio 0.40 : 1 Nifty are placed at 4747, 4563, 4481, 4353 and 4003. The
NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Nifty faces resistance at the 4987, 5037 and 5161 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
HDFC Bank 481.90 Buy Above 484.00 468.50 3.20 518 7.02
ONGC 268.25 Buy Above 270.00 261.00 3.33 290 7.41
Reliance 779.75 Buy Above 781.00 750.00 3.97 848 8.58
EKC 30.35 Sell Below 30.00 31.35 4.50 27 10.00
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 16451 16451 16518 16585 16718 16385 16318 16184
S&P CNX NIFTY 4956 4956 4981 5005 5055 4931 4906 4857
NIFTY JAN. FUT. 4958 4958 4982 5007 5057 4933 4909 4859
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