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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                 2nd August 2012
         Indices *          Close          % Chg.
 BSE SENSEX                17257.38          0.12
                                                              5250 remains the stumbling block
 S&P CNX NIFTY              5240.50          0.22
                                                       Mirroring the divergent global market cues the domestic
 NIFTY AUG. FUT.             5256.30         0.30
                                                       markets witnessed a flat opening. The over all trend
 India VIX                   16.45           2.74      remained range bound as markets struggled to test the 5250
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                 resistance level. Intermediate bouts of selling pressure were
                                                       witnessed at higher levels as follow up buying support
                 Level 1    Level 2         Level 3
                                                       remained unimpressive. The markets ended the day with
Support           5105       5047            4950
                                                       marginal gains to close near the highs for the day. The top
Resistance        5250       5333            5379      gainers for the day were DLF, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, Sesa
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                  Goa, HDFC, GAIL, BPCL, Coal India, PNB and Rel. Infra.
50 Day SMA                  5127.51
                                                       Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst
100 Day SMA                 5151.27                    lower volumes. The global market cues are divergent on
200 Day SMA                 5105.18        ◄Critical   back of the US Federal Reserve failing to announce any
                                                       new economic measures and also ahead of the ECB and
   Market Breadth *          BSE             NSE
                                                       Bank of England meet today. The domestic markets are
Advances                     1723             966
                                                       likely to witness a flat opening. The prevailing technical
Declines                     1105             506      positives still hold good. The RSI, KST and Stochastic
Same                          128               72     remain placed above their respective averages.
Total                        2956            1544      Moreover, the KST is placed in the positive territory. The
A/D Ratio                   1.55 : 1        1.91 : 1   Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA
                                                       and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA is
             Volume (Lacs Shares)      *               placed above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives
               01/08/12     31/07/12        % Chg.     would lead to intermediate bouts of buying support.
BSE              1924        1946            -1.13     However, the prevailing technical negatives continue to
NSE              5509        6147           -10.37     hold good. The Stochastic is placed in the over bought
Total            7433        8093            -8.15     zone. The MACD remains placed below its average and is
                                                       also placed in the negative territory. The Nifty’s 50-day
             Turnover ( ` Crores)      *               SMA remains placed below its 100-day SMA. These
               01/08/12     31/07/12        % Chg.     negative technical conditions would prompt profit taking
BSE             1917.98     2037.53          -5.87     and selling pressure at higher levels. The ADX line, the
NSE             9000.04    10839.41         -16.97
                                                       +DI line and the –DI line are moving sideways, indicating
                                                       a range bound and sideways trend.              The market
NSE F&O        81501.19    113706.57        -28.32
                                                       sentiment remains tentative as Nifty is struggling around
Total          92419.21    126583.51        -26.99
                                                       the 5250 resistance level. Now it is important that the
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)         *          markets witness follow up buying support at higher
               01/08/12     31/07/12        % Chg.
                                                       levels for the Nifty to move higher. In the meanwhile the
                                                       markets would take cues from the Rupee, global market
Index Fut.      297692      517289          -42.45
                                                       cues, outcome of the Federal meet, news flow from ECB
Stock Fut.      407252      527248          -22.76
                                                       and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed
Index Opt.     2235429      3069124         -27.16     at 5105, 5047, 5000, 4950 and 4859. The Nifty faces
Stock Opt.      152877      231884          -34.07     resistance at the 5250, 5333, 5379 and 5464 levels.
Total          3093250      4345545         -21.00

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                  Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in



                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                                th
                     The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                            www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5
                                   (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                 Stop
                                                  Initiation           Stop      Loss                    Target
         Stock          Close         Action      Price               Loss *      (%)      Target         (%)            Remarks
                                                                                                                       TGT of 187
                                                                                                                       Achieved
                                                                                                                       given Buy @
                                                                                                                       181 on
  Ambuja Cement         186.00      Buy Above             187         184.25      1.47          193           3.21     27/07/12
  Aurobindo Pharma      113.40      Buy Above             114         111.25      2.41          120           5.26
  FT                    737.35      Buy Above             741         714.00      3.64          800           7.96
  HDFC                  699.85      Buy Above             702         691.50      1.50          725           3.28


  Hero Motorcorp Fut 1936.40 Sell Below           1935.00     1975.00             2.07         1850           4.39
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                           Intra-day Resistance                          Intra-day Support
       Indices          Close         Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                    S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                 17257                17246     17303          17349      17452             17200       17143       17041
S&P CNX NIFTY               5241                 5233          5254       5267          5301           5220          5199      5166
NIFTY AUG. FUT.             5256                 5251          5272       5289          5326           5235          5213      5175




                                                          Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                             th
                  The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                        www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks To Watch Out Today
Aban, Ambuja Cements, APIL, Aurobindo Pharma, Bajaj Holdings, Cairn India, CESC, Cummins, Dabur, Dish TV, Essar Oil,
Grasim, HDFC, HUL, IDFC, Indian Hotels, Jet Airways, JSW Steel, Kotak Bank, LIC Hsg; NALCO, Piramal Healthcare,
Raymond, REC, Rel. Capital, Reliance, Rel. Infra, SCI, Sun Pharma, Sun TV, Tata Chemicals, Tata Motors, TTK Prestige
Bharti Airtel, Hero Motocorp, NHPC




NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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      Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
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                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                              th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 020812

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 2nd August 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. BSE SENSEX 17257.38 0.12 5250 remains the stumbling block S&P CNX NIFTY 5240.50 0.22 Mirroring the divergent global market cues the domestic NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5256.30 0.30 markets witnessed a flat opening. The over all trend India VIX 16.45 2.74 remained range bound as markets struggled to test the 5250 S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels resistance level. Intermediate bouts of selling pressure were witnessed at higher levels as follow up buying support Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 remained unimpressive. The markets ended the day with Support 5105 5047 4950 marginal gains to close near the highs for the day. The top Resistance 5250 5333 5379 gainers for the day were DLF, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, Sesa Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Goa, HDFC, GAIL, BPCL, Coal India, PNB and Rel. Infra. 50 Day SMA 5127.51 Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst 100 Day SMA 5151.27 lower volumes. The global market cues are divergent on 200 Day SMA 5105.18 ◄Critical back of the US Federal Reserve failing to announce any new economic measures and also ahead of the ECB and Market Breadth * BSE NSE Bank of England meet today. The domestic markets are Advances 1723 966 likely to witness a flat opening. The prevailing technical Declines 1105 506 positives still hold good. The RSI, KST and Stochastic Same 128 72 remain placed above their respective averages. Total 2956 1544 Moreover, the KST is placed in the positive territory. The A/D Ratio 1.55 : 1 1.91 : 1 Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA is Volume (Lacs Shares) * placed above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives 01/08/12 31/07/12 % Chg. would lead to intermediate bouts of buying support. BSE 1924 1946 -1.13 However, the prevailing technical negatives continue to NSE 5509 6147 -10.37 hold good. The Stochastic is placed in the over bought Total 7433 8093 -8.15 zone. The MACD remains placed below its average and is also placed in the negative territory. The Nifty’s 50-day Turnover ( ` Crores) * SMA remains placed below its 100-day SMA. These 01/08/12 31/07/12 % Chg. negative technical conditions would prompt profit taking BSE 1917.98 2037.53 -5.87 and selling pressure at higher levels. The ADX line, the NSE 9000.04 10839.41 -16.97 +DI line and the –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound and sideways trend. The market NSE F&O 81501.19 113706.57 -28.32 sentiment remains tentative as Nifty is struggling around Total 92419.21 126583.51 -26.99 the 5250 resistance level. Now it is important that the F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * markets witness follow up buying support at higher 01/08/12 31/07/12 % Chg. levels for the Nifty to move higher. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the Rupee, global market Index Fut. 297692 517289 -42.45 cues, outcome of the Federal meet, news flow from ECB Stock Fut. 407252 527248 -22.76 and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed Index Opt. 2235429 3069124 -27.16 at 5105, 5047, 5000, 4950 and 4859. The Nifty faces Stock Opt. 152877 231884 -34.07 resistance at the 5250, 5333, 5379 and 5464 levels. Total 3093250 4345545 -21.00 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks TGT of 187 Achieved given Buy @ 181 on Ambuja Cement 186.00 Buy Above 187 184.25 1.47 193 3.21 27/07/12 Aurobindo Pharma 113.40 Buy Above 114 111.25 2.41 120 5.26 FT 737.35 Buy Above 741 714.00 3.64 800 7.96 HDFC 699.85 Buy Above 702 691.50 1.50 725 3.28 Hero Motorcorp Fut 1936.40 Sell Below 1935.00 1975.00 2.07 1850 4.39 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 17257 17246 17303 17349 17452 17200 17143 17041 S&P CNX NIFTY 5241 5233 5254 5267 5301 5220 5199 5166 NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5256 5251 5272 5289 5326 5235 5213 5175 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks To Watch Out Today Aban, Ambuja Cements, APIL, Aurobindo Pharma, Bajaj Holdings, Cairn India, CESC, Cummins, Dabur, Dish TV, Essar Oil, Grasim, HDFC, HUL, IDFC, Indian Hotels, Jet Airways, JSW Steel, Kotak Bank, LIC Hsg; NALCO, Piramal Healthcare, Raymond, REC, Rel. Capital, Reliance, Rel. Infra, SCI, Sun Pharma, Sun TV, Tata Chemicals, Tata Motors, TTK Prestige Bharti Airtel, Hero Motocorp, NHPC NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com