Market Overview - 2022 Q2 - NTI - United National Foods.pptx

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EXPERT GUIDANCE
NTI provides clients with data and support for critical decisions where professional
drivers and technicians are vital to success.
We deliver opportunities for fleets to grow, to attract additional workers, and then
expand in their marketplace with an appropriately compensated, engaged and
retained workforce.
NTI sponsors our coveted Top Pay Carrier Certification, an elite designation for companies that provide:
Top Tier Pay Top Health & Retirement Benefits Long-Term Corporate Stability
Over 100 Attributes of Driver Pay
Owner Operator Income and Perks
Neutral Reporting for Contracts
Market Based Earnings and Perks for
Techs
Private Fleet Activity, Mileage, & Hourly
Pay
Women and Other Minorities
Benefits, Retirement, PTO, Perks
New Entrant and Trainer Pay
Market-based Mileage Hourly and
Annual Earnings at For-Hire Fleets
Driver Engagement, Social Media,
SiriusXM Road Dog Trucking Host

CONSTRAINTS ON DRIVER SUPPLY
● The U.S. has a systemic blue-collar labor problem
● Truck driving jobs are considered undesirable by many
blue-collar workers. Jobs with similar qualifications offer
better pay and schedule
● The workforce pool is always in need of supply.
Infrastructure bill expands construction jobs.
● Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse — nearly 90K prohibited
● Change in consumer-driven economy
has spurred job shifts
● Age continues to be a factor. Driver health and wellness
impacts supply
How these challenges affect fleets:
› Greater pressure to conform to work models
› A drained driver pipeline
› Tough competition from other blue-collar fields
› Driver retirements, physical and mental wearing out,
hesitancy over COVID risk
› Driver frustrations over inconsistent pay, schedules, and
unpaid, unproductive time curtailing drivers’ earning
potential
› Increasing regulation and oversight
› Fleets are pushing to ramp up training, but having to
train trainers, too
› A surge in local, package delivery, LTL, final mile job
availability

LOCAL DRIVING JOBS PULLING WEIGHT IN EMPLOYMENT
#s
● Long haul jobs have been slow to come back since
the 2020 dip.
● Meanwhile, local driving jobs make up ~70% of all
trucking jobs added in 2020 and 2021.
● Shifting buying habits have created opportunities that
didn't exist before at the local level.
● These jobs offer better life balance. They're attractive
and trendy. They're often household names.
● And the pay and benefits are competitive if not better
than long-haul.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment data (not seasonally adjusted) | Jason Miller, Michigan State University

GROWTH IN NEW ENTRANT, SMALLER MOTOR CARRIERS HAS
HAMPERED DRIVER SUPPLY AND SHIFTED CAPCITY
INDUSTRYWIDE…

GROWING CARRIER NUMBERS & SHIFTING
CAPACITY
● Dramatic Growth In New For-Hire Trucking Companies (nearly all with 10 trucks or fewer)
● Source: https://ai.fmcsa.dot.gov/RegistrationStatistics/CustomReports.aspx
● Company profile data from Active Motor Carriers with registered USDOT numbers.
● Domicile: USA/lower 48, Vehicles Operated: truck tractors, Carrier Type: freight
● Data is based on latest FMCSA update: 3/25/2022

DRIVER COUNT GROWS, BUT THEY TEND TO BE
INEXPERIENCED
● Source: https://ai.fmcsa.dot.gov/RegistrationStatistics/CustomReports.aspx
● Data from Active Motor Carriers with registered USDOT numbers.
● Domicile: USA/lower 48, Vehicles Operated: truck tractors, Carrier Type: freight
● Data is based on latest FMCSA update: 3/25/2022

A LOOK AT DRIVER PAY TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS

DRIVER DEMAND AND WAGES
The lack of driver supply, combined
with strong demand for capacity, has
spurred wage growth across the
country, but especially in peak markets
highlighted in this map.

NATIONAL SURVEYOF DRIVER WAGES
Solo Driver – OTR – All Trailer Types - Mileage Pay – YOY Q2

NATIONAL CITY-CENTRIC DRIVER PAY SURVEY

Solo Driver – All Trailer Types - Hourly Pay – YOY Q2

Solo Driver – 1 Year Experience – Mileage Pay Histogram – 2021 Q2 vs 2022 Q2
2021 Q2
2022 Q2
Even after surging driver wage growth
in 2021, wages continue to climb in
2022. Pay at the top end of the scale
for solo drivers with a mere 1 year of
experience grew more than 11 cents
comparing 2Q 2022 to Q1 2021. New
drivers entering expect rapid and
frequent wage growth.

Solo Driver – Prevalence of Guarantee Pay – YOY Q2
Just shy of 34% of carriers surveyed for the
second quarter of 2022 are offering
guaranteed weekly pay. Up from 30.7%
from the same quarter last year.
Of those 34% offering guaranteed pay, the
weekly rate also climbed form 2021’s 2Q by
$75 a week.

Solo Driver – Prevalence of Sign-on Bonus – YOY Q2
Prevalence of sign-on bonuses did
drop slightly in 2022’s 2Q compared to
2021 2Q.
The amount offered for sign-on
bonuses also dropped slightly.

Solo Driver – Prevalence of Referral Bonus – YOY Q2
Prevalence of referral bonuses also
dropped.
But the amount for referral bonuses
grew by $91.

NATIONAL DRIVER WAGE INDEX
2022 Q1: 2.58% Increase
According to The National Transportation Institute
Driver Wage Index, driver pay grew by 10.34% on
average in 2021 across all modes, applications,
trailer types, and driver experience levels.
NTI forecasts wages to
climb another 6.82% on
average in 2022.

MACRO & SUPPLY CHAIN
TRENDS TO WATCH FOR
A rattled economy.
• Inflation and rising costs of energy and food could strain consumer spending
and hamper freight demand.
• As COVID wanes, more dollars could flow to services and experiences and
less on hard goods.
• Inflation, geopolitical uncertainty due to war in Europe, lockdowns in China,
and climbing interest rates have rattled global economies, prompted a stock
market sell-off, and caused spot rates to dip downward (and more freight
has been moved under contract as the market has rebalanced.)
'Supply chain déjà vu all over again'
• Factories are closed and logistics ops in China have been paused, but…
• The whiplash effect: When China reboots, a deluge of freight could head stateside later this
year, and the same (or worse) bottlenecks at domestic ports and freight demand /
transportation capacity imbalances from last year could arise.
Recent headlines...
(AKA the bad news)

HOWEVER…
(AKA the good news)

THE 'CONSUMPTION
GAP' PERSISTS
Consumption as measured by retail and food sales has
gained 27 basis points since Dec. 2019, but, but
employment hasn’t kept up:
● Trucking employment has gained just 2 basis points since Dec.
'19.
● Overall total employment is still down half a point from Dec
2019.
● The gap between consumption and trucking employment is 25
basis points.
● All industries remain in a fierce competition for labor.
Normalized Index with base December 2019
Sources: U.S. Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
25-point gap

UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS NEAR RECORD LOW
A good sign for the economy, but a challenging environment for fleets.

UNEMPLOYMENT'
S
ROLLERCOASTER
RIDE
After reaching a near-record low and then spiking to a
near-record high within just a 3-month span in early
2020, the U.S. unemployment rate has since returned to
near-record lows, due to both a resurgence in the labor
market and continued lower participation rate.
Graphic from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

TWO YEARS IN, CLEARINGHOUSE EFFECT LINGERS
Current effect
● 89,650 drivers remain in prohibited status
● Over 35k in past 12 months
Long-term effects
● 75% of 89K prohibited have not started return-to-duty
protocol. Will they?
● If they did, would fleets want to hire those drivers?
● Long term, industry will continue to contend with
Clearinghouse prohibitions and impacts.
35,413
Increase
54,267
Increase
Source: https://clearinghouse.fmcsa.dot.gov/Learn

SHORTAGE EMPHASIZED
AFTER 1-YEAR MARK
Applicants without experience out number experienced
drivers 3 to 1
Once minimal training is achieved, they start job-seeking or
are hunted 3 months, 6 months, 9 months
1-year safe driving (experienced)
2 years driving experience – minimum at small fleets
3 years of experience, safe, and/or Flatbed
Trainer
Highest Labor
Hazmat-Certified, Tanker
TEAMS

CAREER PATH IS VITAL AND OFTENMISSING
● The “large-carrier mentality” starts early
● New students describe indentured servitude
● Huge opportunity to improve conditions and wages
● ‘If I make it: Expect to pay my dues, earn my stripes, face uphill climb
● Training is relatively non-existent outside OTR
● New entrant driver turnover is SERIOUS
● Training is growing at private fleets with dock-to-driver programs
● Lifestyle improvement is up to us – Just ask younger drivers!
● Elevate your workforce to meet your needs
● Look to CDL endorsements, customer interface, computer skills, training, teaming, driver liaisons
● Use and support tools that allow peer collaboration – social media groups, gatherings, Zoom, networking

PROFESSIONAL TRUCK DRIVER EARNING TIMELINE

RETENTION IS THE NEW RECRUITING

INTEREST& COMMUNICATION
Drivers’styles varyby age andgender
● Baby Boomers (26%)want to talk, have meals, be revered, give
advice, have experience recognizedin the paycheck, save money
● Gen X (53%) engage on social media, network, revere
professionalism and collaboration, want to mentor! They value
achievement and opportunity.
● Millennials (17%)give loyalty to the companies that provide a
career path, rather than a job alone. They communicate in a
variety of ways and value recognitionthrough advancement
● Gen Z (4%)– (DoNot Call List) Text,
email, techsavvy, risk averse, independent, gaming! Financially
minded with many opportunities identify your career path,
articulate and share it

What’s next
for me?
How do I continue
my career
after driving?
Where can I find
Affordable Owner
Operator Benefits and
Savings?
I need a company that
does NOT DO hair
testing
How do I stay healthy
out here? Weight gain,
leg swells, BP, DM
These fuel prices
are killing us.
Will we survive?
Keep us productive,
don’t micromanage
– with management
OR technology!
Pay! Benefits!
Retirement!
Break it down so I
understand. Is all my
time valuable?
I want to mentor
new drivers
and young people
considering
trucking

EXPERT GUIDANCE
BUSINESSINTELLIGENCE
DELIVERED!
LeahShaver
President & CEO
612-263-9983
LShaver@DriverWages.com

Market Overview - 2022 Q2 - NTI - United National Foods.pptx

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