The Dynamics Changing The World of Automobiles - 2022 Outlook

withum.com
The Dynamics Changing the World of
Automobiles – 2022 Outlook
Presented by Withum
Stuart McCallum, Practice Leader, Dealership Services
Jim Hannan, Practice Leader, Manufacturing, Distribution & Logistics
Jason Thomas, Practice Leader, Electric Vehicles
February 10, 2022

Global Director – Automotive
Bloomberg Intelligence
Kevin Tynan

135+
industries
500+
data contributors
2,000+
companies
15yrs
avg. analyst experience
Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) research delivers an independent perspective providing interactive data and
investment research on companies, industries and global markets. Our team of 350 research professionals help
our clients make informed decisions in the rapidly moving investment landscape.
Bloomberg Intelligence

U.S. Vehicle Mix
EVs In Supporting Role

U.S. LIGHT TRUCK AND CAR SALES
As % of total volume
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Source: Wards Auto

RETAIL REVENUE BY SEGMENT
FY2021
Large Pickup @
$115 billion
ATP = $54,352
Compact SUV @
$67 billion
ATP = $31,091
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Large Car
Exotics/Sport Car
Minivans
Cargo/Passenger Vans
Luxury Car
Green
Mid-Size Car
Small Car (Compact, Subcompact)
Pickups
SUV/CUV
Industry
Source: Company Data, Edmunds.com, Bloomberg Intelligence

RETAIL MARGIN BY SEGMENT
Source: Company Data, just-auto.com
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1/2020 4/2020 7/2020 10/2020 1/2021 4/2021 7/2021 10/2021
Compact Car
Full Size Truck
Large SUV
Mid-Size Car

LARGE PICKUP RETAIL REVENUE BY AUTOMAKER
FY2021
- 20 40 60 80 100 120
Stellantis
Ford
General Motors
Total Full-Size Pickup Truck
Billions
44%
40.3%
40.2%
19.6%

ATP BY SEGMENT
FY2021
Large Pickup = 2.17 million units
ATP = $52,926
Compact SUV = 2.16 million units
ATP = $31,091
Compact car + midsize car =
1.9 million units
Compact car ATP = $23,670
Midsize car ATP = $29,181
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Compact Car
Mid-SizeCar
SubcompactSUV
Compact SUV
Mid-SizeSUV
Compact Truck
Mid-PlusSUV
Entry Luxury SUV
LargeTruck
Mid-RangeLuxurySUV
LargeSUV

U.S. NEW COMPACT AND MIDSIZE CAR VOLUME
In 000s
25
125
225
325
425
525
625
725
FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021
Ford
GM
BEVs

EV ADOPTION
Manufacturers, Governments and Consumers

CHINA, EUROPE 5, U.S. BEV SALES
As % of total volume
Source: Company Data, JATO, CAIN
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
9/1/2019 12/1/2019 3/1/2020 6/1/2020 9/1/2020 12/1/2020 3/1/2021 6/1/2021
Europe 5
China
U.S.

RETAIL REVENUE BY SEGMENT
1H21 Run rate
Fines = $106 USD per
C02g/km that exceeds the
target, multiplied by unit
sales.
VW sold ~2.9 million units in
2020 – similar pace in 2021.
~$300 million fine for every
C02g/km miss
Source: Valeo CMD 2019

CUMULATIVE PLUG-IN UNIT SALES IN U.S. SINCE 2014
Automakers with eligible federal tax credits
$7,500 Federal tax credit for
16 k/wh battery vehicles
U.S. assembled EVs
UAW, U.S. assembled Evs
$7.5 billion for electric vehicle
charging stations
(1 million ports)
Source: Company Data, Marklines, JATO
- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Mercedes-Benz
Stellantis
Honda
Hyundai-Kia
Volkswagen AG
BMW
Toyota
Ford Motor Co
Nissan

The Advantages of Scale
The Case For Large Automakers

MARKET CAP OF GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS
In USD
Source: Bloomberg Data
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000
Nio Inc
Great Wall Motor
Honda Motor Co
Rivian
Stellantis
Lucid
BMW
General Motors
Ford Motor Co
Daimler Ag
Byd Co Ltd
Volkswagen
Toyota
Tesla

GLOBAL UNIT VOLUME
Source: Company Data
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Xpeng
Nio
Byd Co
Tesla
Brilliance China Automotive
Baic Motor Corp
Geely Auto
BMW
Dongfeng Motor
Renault Nissan
Ford Motor Co
SAIC
Stellantis
Hyundai Kia
General Motors
Volkswagen
Toyota
Millions

NORTH AMERICA PRODUCTION CAPACITY FORECAST
FY2025
Source: just-auto.com
- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000
Rivian
Daimler
Subaru
BMW
Tesla
VW
Hyundai-Kia
Honda
Nissan
Toyota
Stellantis
Ford
General Motors

Changing Retail Landscape
Discounts & Incentives May Be Gone For Good

U.S. NEW VEHICLE INVENTORY
total unit volume
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Millions

U.S. NEW VEHICLE AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICE
In 000s
25
30
35
40
45
50
1/2015 11/2015 9/2016 7/2017 5/2018 3/2019 1/2020 11/2020 9/2021

U.S. NEW VEHICLE AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICE
In 000s
25
30
35
40
45
50
1/2015 11/2015 9/2016 7/2017 5/2018 3/2019 1/2020 11/2020 9/2021
ATP
TEMSRP

U.S. NEW VEHICLE AVERAGE DISCOUNT
In USD
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1/2015 11/2015 9/2016 7/2017 5/2018 3/2019 1/2020 11/2020 9/2021
Avg Discount
$41 billion

U.S. RETAIL GROSS MARGIN BY SEGMENT
In %
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 Q1 2009 Q3 2012 Q1 2014 Q3 2017 Q1 2019 Q3
Used Vehicle
New Vehicle

Used Vehicle Supply
The Affordability Gap Impact on Demand

U.S. USED VEHICLE AVERAGE PRICE
In ‘000 USD
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1

U.S. AFFORDABILITY GAP BETWEEN NEW AND USED VEHICLES
In ‘000 USD
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1

U.S. LEASE PENETRATION
In %
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
FY2010 FY2011 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021

U.S. TOTAL VOLUME
In million units
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

U.S. OFF-LEASE RETURNS
In million units
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2018-2022 above 5
million off-lease returns
Average lease term = 36 months

Contact the Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst
Thank You
Kevin Tynan – Global Director, Automotive
ktynan1@bloomberg.net

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