Presented by Lawrence Haddad (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition) at the International Tropical Agriculture Conference, Brisbane, Australia, 11−13 November 2019

1. Let them eat meat? A solution or or a
problem for a sustainable healthy future?
Lawrence Haddad
Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition
International Tropical Agriculture Conference
Brisbane, Australia
November 11-13, 2019

2. Simple message:
Animal source foods are
essential for infant and
young child growth
State of the World’s Children 2019, UNICEF

3. 7.3
4.8
1.9
6
0
Any ASF Any
grains/roots/tuber
Any Legumes/nuts Any fruit Any vegetables
Percentage reduction in stunting rates from consuming a food from the
food groups below in the previous 24 hours
(49 countries in Africa, Asia and LAC)
Animal Sourced Foods and Child Stunting
D. Headey, K. Hirvonen, and J. Hoddinott (2018) Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 100(5): 1302–1319
%

4. 6.3
3.2
5.4
Dairy Eggs Meat/Fish
Percentage reduction in stunting rates from consuming a food from the
food groups below in the previous 24 hours
(49 countries in Africa, Asia and LAC)
Animal Sourced Foods and Child Stunting
D. Headey, K. Hirvonen, and J. Hoddinott (2018) Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 100(5): 1302–1319
%

5. https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/
“Because many regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa, still face severe burdens of
undernutrition and malnutrition, and growing children often do not obtain adequate
quantities of nutrients from plant source foods alone, the role of animal source foods
should be examined carefully. Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems
for everyone on the planet is possible; however, to accomplish this goal, local and
regional realities need to be carefully considered.”
p. 10 of EAT Lancet Report
The EAT Lancet Report excludes kids 0-2 and does acknowledge
(begrudgingly) the importance of animal source foods for child growth

6. Plant Source Foods Animal Source Foods
Cereals, roots
and tubers
Fruits,
vegetables,
pulses etc.
Non Meat
Meat
Red White Processed
Health
outcomes
Stunting and
Wasting
Strongly
Reduces
Strongly
Reduces
Strongly
Reduces
Strongly
Reduces
Strongly
Reduces ??
Premature
Mortality,
Diabetes,
Heart Disease
Reduces Strongly
Reduces
??
Increases, but
also not so cut
and dried
?? Strongly
Increases
Environ-
mental
outcomes
Greenhouse
Gases
Low
emissions
Low
emissions
Lower
emissions
than red
meat
High
emissions,
but highly
contested
Lower
emissions
than red
meat
??
Other
Environmental
Effects
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
Livelihoods
Poverty
reduction,
economic
development
Very
important
Very
important,
with great
potential
Very important, with great potential
The
Complex
Picture

7. Animals and Climate Change:
Dazed and Confused?
Does livestock rival transportation
as a greenhouse gas emitter?
Not in high income countries: California livestock
contributes 5.4 % of GHG emissions & transport 36.9
%
Food Waste is one of the biggest
food related emissions of GHGs
>30% of the world’s food is lost or wasted
Not all cows are created equal US cows produce 1/20th of the GHG, per unit of cow
output, compared to Indian cows
Does Livestock take up land that
could be used to grow crops?
Livestock occupies 70% of agricultural land, but occupies only a
very small % of land that could be used to grow crops
Based on Porter et. al. 2016, Poore et. al. 2018, and Mitloehner 2018
Not all meat is the same when it
comes to GHG emissions
Compared to beef cattle, pig meat and poultry emit
about 1/7th GHG per 100g

8. Global
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions by
Economic
Sector Lots of controversy
about different
weights of different
sectors
Apples vs Oranges

9. 50
22 20
7 6 6
2
Cattle
(beef)
Lamb &
Mutton
Beef (dairy) Pig Meat Fish
(farmed)
Poultry Pulses
GHG emissions Kg CO2 equiv/100g of food
119 countries
Data are approximate, drawn from graphs in Poore et al., Science 360, 987–992 (2018) 1 June 2018
Greenhouse gas emissions from different types of
protein production

10. S.D. Porter et al. / Science of the Total Environment 571 (2016) 721–729
Food Loss & Waste is low in Sub
Saharan Africa, but high in N. America
Fruits and Vegetables account for >
1/3 of total food loss & waste

11. But animal production in low and middle income
countries will have to become much more efficient
• Reproductive health (e.g. 40% of China’s pigs die before having
been weaned from mother’s milk)
• Improved health, including vaccinations and treatment of animals
• Improved breeding for selected traits like growth rate, carcass yield
• Feeding more energy dense feed to cows
These 4 tools have allowed the US dairy herd to decline from 25 million
in 1950 to 9 million in 2018, while overall milk production is up by 60%
From Frank Mitloehner (2018) in Chapter 5 of https://www.nap.edu/read/25289/chapter/5 in the National Academies Press

12. In low and middle income countries, red meat is cheaper than
all other forms of ASF: need to make other ASF cheaper
Headey, Derek & Alderman, Harold. (2019). The Relative Caloric Prices of Healthy and Unhealthy Foods Differ Systematically
across Income Levels and Continents. The Journal of nutrition. 149. 10.1093/jn/nxz158.
Price relative to
cereal cost of
equivalent calories

13. Implications
• Important big caveats: have not looked at livelihoods or other environmental
effects
• Context is everything
• A big Inequality agenda
– Differentiated responsibilities and capacities to change consumption
– What are the prospects for high income country changes in production and consumption to
give low and middle income countries time to adjust?
• Middle income countries are harder to design policies for as they have
almost equal levels of under and over nutrition (double burden)
• Much more data and research needed in low and middle income countries
on impacts of different types of meat production and consumption on
– Health (under and over nutrition), GHG emissions, Land use, Water use

14. GHG
Emissions per
capita are
highly unequal
US emissions
per capita are
124 times that
of Ethiopia
So the US has
lots of scope
and lots of
options to
reduce GHG

15. Meat
consumption is
also highly
unequal
So the high
consumers have
lots of scope to
reduce consumption

16. Meat consumption high Meat consumption low
GHG emission/cap high
GHG emission/cap low
Reduce meat consumption on
health grounds, but there may
be other sectors that are a
bigger priority for GHG
reductions
Not many countries here,
although India might be
here in 10 years time
• China used to be in this
category about 5 years ago
• Probably need to switch
away from red meat
consumption
• Make non red meat
production more efficient
• Most of Sub Saharan
Africa here
• Make non-red meat &
other ASFs cheaper
• Improve GHG efficiency
of meat production
What is a stressed out policymaker to do, part 2?

17. We Need to Elevate the Discourse
• Issues are complex
• The evidence base is thin
• There is a lot of ideology mixed in – evidence can be
interpreted in many ways
• Competing interests are everywhere
• Need to avoid demonising those who disagree with
us— it sets everyone back

18. Thank you
Especially for those who this work is being done for