Combining Oceanic And Atmospheric Carbon Data
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The document summarizes a presentation on combining oceanic and atmospheric carbon dioxide data to constrain CO2 fluxes in Europe and surrounding oceans. It discusses using atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements along with ocean surface CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon measurements to infer regional CO2 fluxes via atmospheric inversion modeling. Results show seasonal and interannual variability in fluxes agree reasonably between different modeling methods, though uncertainty remains at the global scale due to sparse data in some regions. Combining multiple modeling approaches provides a more robust estimate of surface ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes than any single method alone.
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Combining Oceanic And Atmospheric Carbon Data
- 1. ICOS Open Science Conference, Helsinki, Sept 2016 Combining Oceanic And Atmospheric Carbon Data to constrain CO2 fluxes in Europe and its surrounding oceans Christian R¨odenbeck Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena D. C. E. Bakker, B. Pfeil, G. Rehder, M. Glockzin, R. Keeling, and M. Heimann In collaboration with C. Le Qu´er´e, S. Zaehle N. Gruber, Y. Iida, A.R. Jacobson, S. Jones, P. Landsch¨utzer, N. Metzl, S. Nakaoka, A. Olsen, G.-H. Park, P. Peylin, K.B. Rodgers, T.P. Sasse, U. Schuster, J.D. Shutler, V. Valsala, R. Wanninkhof, J. Zeng, Many thanks to: Data contributors, DKRZ, CarboChange, IMBER / SOLAS
- 5. Atmosphere ZOT NOAA/GMD MLO SPO 340 360 380 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 CO2 MLO
- 6. Atmosphere ◮ Causality: Fluxes, Transport −→ Concentration gradient Knowledge: Fluxes ←− Concentration gradient, Transport cmeas ←→ cmod = Af + c0 “Atmospheric Inversion” = Multidimensional linear regression
- 7. Schauinsland - SCH (night time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 Monte Cimone - CMN (day time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004
- 8. Schauinsland - SCH (night time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 Monte Cimone - CMN (day time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) s90 v3.8 CO2 uptake CO2 release
- 9. Schauinsland - SCH (night time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 Monte Cimone - CMN (day time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) s90 v3.8 (summer only) More CO2 uptake More CO2 release
- 10. Schauinsland - SCH (night time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 Monte Cimone - CMN (day time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) s90 v3.8 (summer only) More CO2 uptake More CO2 release
- 11. Schauinsland - SCH (night time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 Monte Cimone - CMN (day time) 360 370 380 390 400 2002 2003 2004 W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) s90 v3.8 (summer only) More CO2 uptake More CO2 release ∆ Temperature: ∆ Precipitation: (Jul-Sep) [Ciais et al., Nature (2005)] 2003 European climate anomaly
- 12. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Sea-air gas exchange Carbon CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr)
- 13. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Sea-air gas exchange Carbon CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr) [Peylin et al., RECCAP (2013)] But:
- 17. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Data density / distribution [www.socat.info]
- 18. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Data density / distribution [www.socat.info]
- 20. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Statistical Interpolation Linear Regression Non-linear Regression Model-based Regr./Tuning Role of driver data Model assump- tions Mapping methods
- 21. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Statistical Interpolation Linear Regression Non-linear Regression Model-based Regr./Tuning Role of driver data Model assump- tions Direct data signals Bridging data gaps −→ Interesting complementarity −→ Extracting robust features SOCOM: Collating 14 mapping methods Mapping methods
- 22. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped UEA-SI OceanFlux-SI Jena-MLS CU-SCSE AOML-EMP UEx-MLR JMA-MLR UNSW-SOMLO ETH-SOMFFN CARBONES-NN NIES-SOM NIES-NN PU-MCMC NIES-OTTM Monthly pCO2 (uatm) 2003 2004 2005 2006 320 340 360 380 400 420 Seasonality: Most methods roughly agree on phasing and amplitude (also to Takahashi et al., 2009) → Seasonality well constrained from data First SOCOM results [R¨odenbeck et al., BG (2015)]
- 23. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped UEA-SI Jena-MLS AOML-EMP JMA-MLR UNSW-SOMLO ETH-SOMFFN NIES-SOM NIES-NN Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Interannual Variations (IAV): – Tropical Pacific: * Biome with largest IAV * Link to ENSO Methods selected / weighted by relative IAV mismatch to SOCATv2 Thicker lines: methods better matching the data also mutually agree more closely First SOCOM results [R¨odenbeck et al., BG (2015)]
- 24. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped UEA-SI Jena-MLS AOML-EMP JMA-MLR UNSW-SOMLO ETH-SOMFFN NIES-SOM NIES-NN Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Interannual Variations (IAV): – Tropical Pacific: * Biome with largest IAV * Link to ENSO UEA-SI Jena-MLS AOML-EMP JMA-MLR UNSW-SOMLO ETH-SOMFFN CARBONES-NN NIES-SOM NIES-NN PU-MCMC Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 – Global Ocean: * Larger spread due to poorly constrained areas First SOCOM results [R¨odenbeck et al., BG (2015)]
- 25. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped UEA-SI Jena-MLS AOML-EMP JMA-MLR UNSW-SOMLO ETH-SOMFFN NIES-SOM NIES-NN Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Interannual Variations (IAV): – Tropical Pacific: * Biome with largest IAV * Link to ENSO UEA-SI Jena-MLS AOML-EMP JMA-MLR UNSW-SOMLO ETH-SOMFFN CARBONES-NN NIES-SOM NIES-NN PU-MCMC Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 Little decadal change Increasing sink First SOCOM results [R¨odenbeck et al., BG (2015)]
- 26. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Statistical Interpolation Linear Regression Non-linear Regression Model-based Regr./Tuning Role of driver data Model assump- tions Direct data signals Bridging data gaps −→ Interesting complementarity −→ Extracting robust features SOCOM: Collating 14 mapping methods Jena-MLS [R¨odenbeck et al.] ETH-SOMFFN [Landsch¨utzer et al.] UEx-MLR [Talk Ute Schuster] Mapping methods
- 27. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon CO2 flux inferred from pCO2 interpolation Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr)
- 28. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr) inferred from pCO2 interpolation
- 29. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) inferred from pCO2 interpolation
- 30. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) inferred from pCO2 interpolation South American Trop. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr)
- 31. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon North Atlantic Temp. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion North Atlantic Temp. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) inferred from pCO2 interpolation
- 32. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon North Atlantic Temp. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion North Atlantic Temp. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) inferred from pCO2 interpolation Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr)
- 33. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere CO2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Southern Ocean 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) CO2 flux inferred from CO2 inversion Southern Ocean 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) inferred from pCO2 interpolation
- 34. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange Carbon CO2 flux inferred from pCO2 interpolation Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr) [www.socat.info] But:
- 35. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange Carbon CO2 flux inferred from pCO2 interpolation Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr) 0 1 “Reduction of Uncertainty” of flux IAV But:
- 37. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Ocean-internal sources/sinks Carbon
- 38. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Ocean-internal sources/sinks , MLD, wind speed, XCO2, SLP, Alk, SSS Sea-air gas exchange h d dt C = fma(C) + finth d dt C = fma(C) + fint Using parameterizations of – Solubility – Sea–air gas exchange – Carbonate chemistry – Mixed-layer tracer budget Carbon
- 39. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] Sea-air gas exchange Ocean-internal sources/sinks Carbon Oxygen • Biology: Redfield stoichiometry RO:C ≈ −1.4 • Transport+Mixing: Common pathways
- 40. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-in Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Oxygen • Biology: Redfield stoichiometry RO:C ≈ −1.4 • Transport+Mixing: Common pathways
- 41. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-in Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Oxygen • Biology: Redfield stoichiometry RO:C ≈ −1.4 • Transport+Mixing: Common pathways
- 42. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Oxygen • Biology: Redfield stoichiometry RO:C ≈ −1.4 • Transport+Mixing: Common pathways
- 43. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Oxygen CO2 flux inferred from O2/N2 Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Sea-airCO2flux(PgC/yr) ?
- 44. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Sea-air gas exchange Carbon Oxygen Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -100 -50 0 50 100 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) APO flux inferred from APO inversion
- 45. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange inferred from pCO2 Assumption: Linked `a la Redfield Carbon Oxygen Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -100 -50 0 50 100 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) APO flux inferred from APO inversion
- 46. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange inferred from pCO2 Assumption: Linked `a la Redfield Carbon Oxygen Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -100 -50 0 50 100 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) APO flux inferred from APO inversion
- 47. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange inferred from pCO2 Assumption: Linked `a la Redfield Carbon Oxygen Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -100 -50 0 50 100 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) APO flux inferred from APO inversion Ocean 15N-90N -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 Ocean 15S-15N -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) Ocean 90S-15S Jan Jul Jan Jul -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
- 48. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Atmosphere O2 Mixed layer pCO2, [DIC] [O2] Ocean-internal sources/sinks Sea-air gas exchange inferred from pCO2 Assumption: Linked `a la Redfield Carbon Oxygen Pacific 15S-15N 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year (A.D.) -100 -50 0 50 100 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) APO flux inferred from APO inversion Ocean 15N-90N -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 Ocean 15S-15N -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 Sea-airAPOflux(Tmol/yr) Ocean 90S-15S Jan Jul Jan Jul -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 ! !
- 49. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped What do the atmospheric stations “see”? Testing existing and potential CO2 observations (RINGO)
- 50. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped W Europe 2012 2013 2014 2015 year (A.D.) -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) – “Known truth” (OCN, Zaehle et al., 2010) – Retrieved from “synthetic data” (s04 v3.8 sites) (3-monthly anomalies) What do the atmospheric stations “see”? Testing existing and potential CO2 observations (RINGO)
- 51. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped W Europe 2012 2013 2014 2015 year (A.D.) -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) – “Known truth” (OCN, Zaehle et al., 2010) – Retrieved from “synthetic data” (s04 v3.8 sites) (3-monthly anomalies) Northern Europe 2012 2013 2014 2015 year (A.D.) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) What do the atmospheric stations “see”? Testing existing and potential CO2 observations (RINGO)
- 52. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped W Europe 2012 2013 2014 2015 year (A.D.) -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) – “Known truth” (OCN, Zaehle et al., 2010) – Retrieved from “synthetic data” (s04 v3.8 sites) (3-monthly anomalies) Northern Europe 2012 2013 2014 2015 year (A.D.) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/yr) – Retrieved from “synthetic data” (s04 v3.8 sites + assumend FINNMAID data) Travem¨unde ↔ Helsinki What do the atmospheric stations “see”? Testing existing and potential CO2 observations (RINGO)
- 53. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Conclusions W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/year) Atmospheric CO2 data & inversion: • Constraint on land variability • Southern Ocean trends
- 54. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Conclusions W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/year) Atmospheric CO2 data & inversion: • Constraint on land variability • Southern Ocean trends Surface-ocean pCO2 data & mapping: Well-constrained ocean seasonality • Ocean IAV constrained e.g. in Eq. Pac. • Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
- 55. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Conclusions W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/year) Atmospheric CO2 data & inversion: • Constraint on land variability • Southern Ocean trends Surface-ocean pCO2 data & mapping: Well-constrained ocean seasonality • Ocean IAV constrained e.g. in Eq. Pac. • Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Ship-based atmospheric CO2 meas.: • Testing impact of additional data • Potential for regional flux estimates
- 56. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Conclusions W Europe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 CO2 Flux(PgC/year) Atmospheric CO2 data & inversion: • Constraint on land variability • Southern Ocean trends Surface-ocean pCO2 data & mapping: Well-constrained ocean seasonality • Ocean IAV constrained e.g. in Eq. Pac. • Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Ship-based atmospheric CO2 meas.: • Testing impact of additional data • Potential for regional flux estimates Products available for download: Atmospheric CO2 inversion • pCO2-based mixed-layer scheme • Combined products, sensitivity cases, atm. fields • www.BGC-Jena.mpg.de/CarboScope/ Jena CarboScope
- 58. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Statistical Interpolation Linear Regression Non-linear Regression Model-based Regr./Tuning Role of driver data Model assump- tions Direct data signals Bridging data gaps −→ Interesting complementarity −→ Extracting robust features SOCOM: Collating 14 mapping methods Mapping methods
- 59. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped Statistical Interpolation Linear Regression Non-linear Regression Model-based Regr./Tuning Role of driver data Model assump- tions Direct data signals Bridging data gaps −→ Interesting complementarity −→ Extracting robust features SOCOM: Collating 14 mapping methods Jena-MLS [R¨odenbeck et al.] ETH-SOMFFN [Landsch¨utzer et al.] Mapping methods
- 60. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Cross Validation
- 61. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S Yearly pCO2 (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 360 380 400 420 440 460 Cross Validation
- 62. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (100.%) Jena oc_v1.4S Benchmark Yearly pCO2 (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 360 380 400 420 440 460 “Benchmark”: Keep seasonality+trend, but no IAV → Mismatch ≈ signal size → “100% error” Cross Validation
- 63. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Interpolation: Regression: Time-dep. DoF’s Constant DoF’s → Any IAV possible → IAV from drivers Cross Validation
- 64. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Cross Validation
- 65. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (121.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (CrossVal5yr0) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 No data Data No data Data No data Data → Data-only interpolation cannot bridge multi-year gaps Cross Validation
- 66. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (48.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (CrossVal5yr0) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 No data Data No data Data No data Data → Regression against drivers (SST, SSS, Chl-a, atm. CO2) offers some bridging capacity Cross Validation
- 67. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (48.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (CrossVal5yr0) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 No data Data No data Data No data Data Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Data No data Data No data Data No data Cross Validation
- 68. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (62.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (Unconstrained periods) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 → Regression against drivers (SST, SSS, Chl-a, atm. CO2) offers some bridging capacity Cross Validation
- 69. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (35.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016, regr. SST & SSS Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Chl-a data only available since 1998 – do SST and SSS suffice? → Less fitting capacity (but main modes similar) Cross Validation
- 70. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (28.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (62.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (Unconstrained periods) (35.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016, regr. SST & SSS (77.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016, regr. SST & SSS (Unconstr.) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Chl-a data only available since 1998 – do SST and SSS suffice? → Less fitting capacity (but main modes similar) → Less bridging capacity Cross Validation
- 71. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (18.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (16.%) Jena oc_v1.4S, regr. SST & SSS (131.%) Jena oc_v1.4S, regr. SST & SSS (Unconstr.) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Cross Validation
- 72. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (47.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Southern Ocean – sparse data Cross Validation
- 73. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (47.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (106.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (Unconstrained periods) Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Southern Ocean – sparse data → Bridging difficult & difficult to test Cross Validation
- 74. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (47.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (106.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (Unconstrained periods) (53.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016, regr. SST & SSS Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Southern Ocean – sparse data → Bridging difficult & difficult to test → again main modes similar w/o Chl-a Cross Validation
- 75. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (37.%) Jena oc_v1.4S (47.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Southern Ocean – sparse data → Bridging difficult & difficult to test → again main modes similar w/o Chl-a → Decadal trends also from data directly Cross Validation
- 76. just-to-prevent-the-PDF-page-to-be-flipped (25.%) ETH-SOMFFN2016 (18.%) Jena-MLS14SSS Yearly CO2 flux (PgC/yr) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -2.50 -2.25 -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 Yearly pCO2 mismatch (uatm) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Global Ocean flux – affected by data-sparse regions → Complementary mapping methods (interpolation, regression) help to assess robustness Cross Validation