Climate, Weather & Farm DecisionsFebruary, 2012Tim Scanlon
Key Messages• Climate and weather are different• Difference between rain and showers• Listen for probabilities• Climate ch...
Climate vs. WeatherSource: The Armstrong and Miller show, BBC TV
Key Messages• Climate and weather are different• Difference between rain and showers• Listen for probabilities• Climate ch...
When positive                                     indicates the                                     subtropical ridge     ...
Has the climate of WA changed?                     Short Answer = YES    Rainfall has decreased      • Mainly early winter...
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
Causes of climate changeGreenhouse gases        • Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO),            Wate...
Isohyets movingsouth-westI.e. Move your farm50km north-east
Source: www.bom.gov.au
Hyden                         3 big summers       Significant change                         20% more likelySource: www.bo...
Kulin                    2 big summers       Significant change                    14.5% more likelySource: www.bom.gov.au
Seasonal RainfallDrop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (Ju...
Positives?• We know this is happening  –Decision making “easier”• Soil moisture becomes the key indicator• Last season gav...
Hyden Temperatures                          Significant changeSource: www.bom.gov.au
Source: www.bom.gov.au
Positives?• Wheat grows better with more CO2  –Offsets other problems like pollution  –Only to a certain point……  –WUE inc...
Greenhouse Gases since 0 (AD)
James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231
EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE• Less rainfall       • Especially winter rainfall•   Higher evaporation rates•   Fewer effective ...
Factors to consider when seeding• The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)• Stored soil moisture (from summer and e...
The FutureResults from IOCI research for south-west WA projects that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008):By 2030• Rainfall...
So What Have We Learnt?
Source: David Mitchells Soapbox, Channelflip.com
Links for more informationhttp://www.skepticalscience.comhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/...
Actual Changes (past 109 years)Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
Actual changesLast 50 years = 0.7oC increase.Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline.  – I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 yea...
Is it us? Yes, it is.Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthr...
Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extremeweather. Note al...
Increase         Radiative                                               Preindustrial    Current        since           f...
Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various                                 greenho...
CO2 is rising beyond  historical levels                Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965
Radiative Forcing (from IPCC 4th Report)
Temperature change relative to 1900                       1940       1970         1994Greenhouse gases        0.1        0...
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
Chance of Temperature Increases                         No Policy Action                             Policy ActionThe poss...
Crops vs. TemperatureRice:• Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.• Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C.• Ripening/fil...
Source: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdf
This figure shows the relative fraction ofman-made greenhouse gases comingfrom each of eight categories of sources,as esti...
Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239
But climate is cooling…
But climate is cooling…Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuck...
But it was warmer in….Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)
But it’s the sun… Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from Solank...
But the sun will be colder….Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emiss...
But scientists don’t agree…Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contrib...
But scientists don’t agree…contDistribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climat...
But it used to be cooling…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
But they are models….Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural fo...
But the Antarctic is gaining ice…  Myth brought about by confusion between sea ice   increases and land ice    losses in A...
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.comSource: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
• La Nina = warmer seas near Australia• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina  – Ge...
Impact of Carbon Tax              Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reprodu...
Impact of Carbon TaxTable 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020   Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050
Climate, Weather & Farm Decisions                February, 2012                Tim ScanlonStart with facilitated Q&A: What...
2                     Key Messages    • Climate and weather are different    • Difference between rain and showers    • Li...
Climate vs. WeatherSource: The Armstrong and Miller show, BBC TV
4                     Key Messages    • Climate and weather are different    • Difference between rain and showers    • Li...
When positive                                                        indicates the                                        ...
6                       Has the climate of WA changed?                                       Short Answer = YES           ...
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
8             Causes of climate change    Greenhouse gases            • Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide...
Isohyets movingsouth-westI.e. Move your farm50km north-east
Source: www.bom.gov.au
Hyden                         3 big summers       Significant change                         20% more likelySource: www.bo...
Kulin                    2 big summers       Significant change                    14.5% more likelySource: www.bom.gov.au
Seasonal RainfallDrop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (Ju...
14                       Positives?     • We know this is happening       –Decision making “easier”     • Soil moisture be...
15     Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earths surface temperatures        have increased since 1880...
Hyden Temperatures                          Significant changeSource: www.bom.gov.au
Source: www.bom.gov.au
18                                       Positives?              • Wheat grows better with more CO2                  –Offs...
Greenhouse Gases since 0 (AD)
James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231Over the last 400,000 years                      ...
21                   EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE     • Less rainfall            • Especially winter rainfall     •   Higher e...
22       Factors to consider when seeding     • The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)     • Stored soil moisture...
23                                       The Future                Results from IOCI research for south-west WA projects  ...
24     So What Have We Learnt?
Source: David Mitchells Soapbox, Channelflip.com
Links for more information        http://www.skepticalscience.com        http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/        http:/...
Actual Changes (past 109 years)Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
Actual changesLast 50 years = 0.7oC increase.Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline.  – I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 yea...
Is it us? Yes, it is.Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthr...
Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme               w...
Increase         Radiative                                                    Preindustrial    Current        since       ...
Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various                                 greenho...
CO2 is rising beyond                                 historical levels                                                    ...
Radiative Forcing (from IPCC 4th Report)
Temperature change relative to 1900                              1940       1970         1994       Greenhouse gases      ...
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
Chance of Temperature Increases                         No Policy Action                             Policy ActionThe poss...
Crops vs. Temperature         Rice:         • Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.         • Flowering 26.5...
Source: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdfFur...
This figure shows the relative fraction ofman-made greenhouse gases comingfrom each of eight categories of sources,as esti...
Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earths surface temperatureshave increased since 1880. The last deca...
As seen by the blue point farthest to the right on this graph, 2009 was the warmest yearon record in the Southern Hemisphe...
Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239Science 4 September 2009:Vol. 325 no. 5945 pp. 1236-1239Recent Warming...
But climate is cooling…
But climate is cooling…Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuck...
But it was warmer in….         Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)Fig. 2. Global surface temperature c...
But it’s the sun…             Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978...
But the sun will be colder….Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emiss...
But scientists don’t agree…Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contrib...
But scientists don’t agree…contDistribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climat...
But it used to be cooling…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
But they are models….        Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only na...
But the Antarctic is gaining ice…  Myth brought about by confusion between sea ice   increases and land ice    losses in A...
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.comSource: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
• La Nina = warmer seas near Australia• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina  – Ge...
Impact of Carbon Tax              Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reprodu...
Impact of Carbon TaxTable 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020   Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050
Climate Presentation Hyden
Climate Presentation Hyden
Climate Presentation Hyden
Climate Presentation Hyden
Climate Presentation Hyden
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Climate Presentation Hyden

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The first climate and weather presentation I\'ve given for 2012. Went over well, especially since I\'ve included video and improved the narrative (thanks to Stephan and John and their Debunking Handbook for that).

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Climate Presentation Hyden

  1. 1. Climate, Weather & Farm DecisionsFebruary, 2012Tim Scanlon
  2. 2. Key Messages• Climate and weather are different• Difference between rain and showers• Listen for probabilities• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc –Doesn’t matter –Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern –Maximising efficiency
  3. 3. Climate vs. WeatherSource: The Armstrong and Miller show, BBC TV
  4. 4. Key Messages• Climate and weather are different• Difference between rain and showers• Listen for probabilities• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc –Doesn’t matter –Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern –Maximising efficiency
  5. 5. When positive indicates the subtropical ridge location to the south, thus the more positive the lower the frontal system on WA.Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
  6. 6. Has the climate of WA changed? Short Answer = YES Rainfall has decreased • Mainly early winter rainfall (May-July). • Sudden decrease in the mid-1970s by about 15-20%. • It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an alternative rainfall regime. • Change in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation. • Less frequent and less intense frontal systems. • Observed changes fit with the climate models. • Changes in rainfall are a combination of climate change and seasonal variability. Temperatures have increased gradually over the last 50 years • Day and night time (i.e. Maxima and Minima). • Particularly in winter and autumn. • Mostly due to climate change.Source: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2005-2006 (Bates, 2008)
  7. 7. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  8. 8. Causes of climate changeGreenhouse gases • Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO), Water*(H2O) • The sunPositive feedback • Increased H2O (7% per 1oC) • Reduced ice cover • Oceans cease to be a carbon sink • Permafrost melt (NH4)• The main greenhouse gases comprise less than 0.5% of the atmosphere. • Without them average global temperature ~ -20oC (not ~14oC). • N and O >99% of the atmosphere. • Water (H2O), CO2, CH4, NO are ~0.44% of the atmosphere.
  9. 9. Isohyets movingsouth-westI.e. Move your farm50km north-east
  10. 10. Source: www.bom.gov.au
  11. 11. Hyden 3 big summers Significant change 20% more likelySource: www.bom.gov.au
  12. 12. Kulin 2 big summers Significant change 14.5% more likelySource: www.bom.gov.au
  13. 13. Seasonal RainfallDrop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (June loss, 60mm variation)2001-2011 GSR: 3 drought; 3 dry, 2 average, 1 above average,1 wet year.GSR = growing season rainfall
  14. 14. Positives?• We know this is happening –Decision making “easier”• Soil moisture becomes the key indicator• Last season gave us a lot of information –Look at what has worked –Water use efficiency –What limitations?
  15. 15. Hyden Temperatures Significant changeSource: www.bom.gov.au
  16. 16. Source: www.bom.gov.au
  17. 17. Positives?• Wheat grows better with more CO2 –Offsets other problems like pollution –Only to a certain point…… –WUE increases – Causes greater stress at key periods – Only offsets decreases in yield due to temperature changes (Wang, 1992)• Food becomes even more important! –Wheat is 21% of the world food (Ortiz 2008)
  18. 18. Greenhouse Gases since 0 (AD)
  19. 19. James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231
  20. 20. EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE• Less rainfall • Especially winter rainfall• Higher evaporation rates• Fewer effective rainfall events• Reduced soil moisture and plant available water• Less runoff due to surface water impacts• Effects on plants’ temperature-determined phenological events (e.g. flowering)
  21. 21. Factors to consider when seeding• The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)• Stored soil moisture (from summer and early autumn rain).• The target seeding date (trade-off between getting seeding done and hitting best range – may lose yield with later sowing)• Prospect of more rain in the near future• Seasonal outlook (e.g. are there any ENSO strong signals worth considering?).
  22. 22. The FutureResults from IOCI research for south-west WA projects that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008):By 2030• Rainfall will decrease by between 2 to 20 percent;• Temperatures will increase • Summer between 0.5 to 2.1 degrees C; • Winter between 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C;By 2070• Rainfall will decrease by between 5 to 60 percent;• Temperatures will increase • Summer between 1.0 to 6.5 degrees C; • Winter between 1.0 to 5.5 degrees C.
  23. 23. So What Have We Learnt?
  24. 24. Source: David Mitchells Soapbox, Channelflip.com
  25. 25. Links for more informationhttp://www.skepticalscience.comhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.htmlhttp://www.climatekelpie.com.au/http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical
  26. 26. Actual Changes (past 109 years)Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
  27. 27. Actual changesLast 50 years = 0.7oC increase.Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline. – I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 years. – Climate forcings suggest 5oC increase will occur this century.Last natural change was 5oC in 10,000 years. – I.e. 0.05oC per 100 years.
  28. 28. Is it us? Yes, it is.Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogeniceffects (purple) to global surface warming (HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Leanand Rind (2008). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  29. 29. Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extremeweather. Note also that this doesnt mean therell be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarerbut will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network 
  30. 30. Increase Radiative Preindustrial Current since forcing Gas level level   1750   (W/m2) Carbon dioxide 280 ppm  388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46 Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb  0.48 Nitrous oxide 270 ppb  314 ppb  44 ppb 0.15 CFC-12 0  533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17 Total Forcing (CO2Equiv) 450ppmNB: 450 ppm of CO2 equivalents is Gas Formula Contribution (%)regarded as the upper “safe” level of H2O Water Vapor 36 – 72 %  greenhouse gases before tippingpoints occur. (Hansen, 2008) CO2 Carbon Dioxide 9 – 26 % Methane CH4 4 – 9 %   Ozone O3 3 – 7 %  
  31. 31. Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases. Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizonGas name formula (years) 20-yr 100-yr 500-yrCarbon dioxide CO2 7-10 1 1 1Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6Nitrous oxide N 2O 114 289 298 153CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 5 160 1 810 549Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700 Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php
  32. 32. CO2 is rising beyond historical levels Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965
  33. 33. Radiative Forcing (from IPCC 4th Report)
  34. 34. Temperature change relative to 1900 1940 1970 1994Greenhouse gases 0.1 0.38 0.69Sulfate emissions -0.04 -0.19 -0.27Solar forcing 0.18 0.1 0.21Volcanic forcing 0.11 -0.04 -0.14Ozone -0.06 0.05 0.08 Net 0.19 0.17 0.53 Observed 0.26 0.21 0.52
  35. 35. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  36. 36. Chance of Temperature Increases No Policy Action Policy ActionThe possible global temperature changes are indicated on each wheel, with the probabilities of eachoccurring denoted by the proportion of each wheel. http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/
  37. 37. Crops vs. TemperatureRice:• Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.• Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C.• Ripening/fill between 20oC to 250C.• 35oC for 1 hour at flowering causes sterility.• Yield decline expected (Peng, 2004)Wheat:• Minimum of 3.5-5.50C.• Optimum 20-250C.• Maximum temperature is 350C.• Yield decline expected (Wang, 1992)Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/
  38. 38. Source: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdf
  39. 39. This figure shows the relative fraction ofman-made greenhouse gases comingfrom each of eight categories of sources,as estimated by theEmission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project.These values are intended to provide asnapshot of global annual greenhousegas emissions in the year 2000. The toppanel shows the sum over all man-madegreenhouse gases, weighted by theirglobal warming potential over the next 100years. This consists of 72%carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8%nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lowerpanels show the comparable informationfor each of these three primarygreenhouse gases, with the samecolouring of sectors as used in the topchart. Segments with less than 1%fraction are not labelled. http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html
  40. 40. Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239
  41. 41. But climate is cooling…
  42. 42. But climate is cooling…Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuckmann 2009
  43. 43. But it was warmer in….Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)
  44. 44. But it’s the sun… Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD). Graphic www.skepticalscience.comhttp://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Myth
  45. 45. But the sun will be colder….Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, andA2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occurduring the 21st century. Source: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solaractivity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707 Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
  46. 46. But scientists don’t agree…Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributingfactor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a2008 Gallup poll.
  47. 47. But scientists don’t agree…contDistribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climate change and unconvinced by theevidence with a given number of total climate publications http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstractGraphic www.skepticalscience.com
  48. 48. But it used to be cooling…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  49. 49. But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  50. 50. But they are models….Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural forcings: solar variation andvolcanic activity. (b) represents simulations done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. (c)was done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings Chapter 12 IPCC 3rd report 2001
  51. 51. But the Antarctic is gaining ice… Myth brought about by confusion between sea ice increases and land ice losses in Antarctica.Ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheetfrom April 2002 to February 2009. Unfiltereddata are blue crosses. Data filtered for theseasonal dependence are red crosses. Thebest-fitting quadratic trend is shown as the greenline (Velicogna 2009). Graphic courtesy ofwww.skepticalscience.com
  52. 52. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.comSource: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
  53. 53. • La Nina = warmer seas near Australia• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina – Get more from change over years
  54. 54. Impact of Carbon Tax Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reproduced from the Federal Government documentSecuring a clean energy futurehttp://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp
  55. 55. Impact of Carbon TaxTable 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020 Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050
  56. 56. Climate, Weather & Farm Decisions February, 2012 Tim ScanlonStart with facilitated Q&A: What questions do people have about climate, weather,climate change?Key 3 questions from groups of 3-4 people.Discuss and answer questions – depending upon group either just cover the questionsand start a group discussion or use as a lead in for presentation.
  57. 57. 2 Key Messages • Climate and weather are different • Difference between rain and showers • Listen for probabilities • Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc –Doesn’t matter –Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern –Maximising efficiency
  58. 58. Climate vs. WeatherSource: The Armstrong and Miller show, BBC TV
  59. 59. 4 Key Messages • Climate and weather are different • Difference between rain and showers • Listen for probabilities • Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc –Doesn’t matter –Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern –Maximising efficiency
  60. 60. When positive indicates the subtropical ridge location to the south, thus the more positive the lower the frontal system on WA. Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.auhttp://www.climatekelpie.com.au/understand-climate/weather-and-climate-drivers/western-australiaModule 4 handouts contain weather drivers overviews.Key point is that climate brings weather but that climate is a very complex andinteractive mechanism.
  61. 61. 6 Has the climate of WA changed? Short Answer = YES Rainfall has decreased • Mainly early winter rainfall (May-July). • Sudden decrease in the mid-1970s by about 15-20%. • It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an alternative rainfall regime. • Change in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation. • Less frequent and less intense frontal systems. • Observed changes fit with the climate models. • Changes in rainfall are a combination of climate change and seasonal variability. Temperatures have increased gradually over the last 50 years • Day and night time (i.e. Maxima and Minima). • Particularly in winter and autumn. • Mostly due to climate change. Source: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2005-2006 (Bates, 2008) Available at http://167.30.10.65/pdf/IOCIReport.pdf http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22 Bates, 2008: http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/
  62. 62. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  63. 63. 8 Causes of climate change Greenhouse gases • Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO), Water*(H2O) • The sun Positive feedback • Increased H2O (7% per 1oC) • Reduced ice cover • Oceans cease to be a carbon sink • Permafrost melt (NH4) • The main greenhouse gases comprise less than 0.5% of the atmosphere. • Without them average global temperature ~ -20oC (not ~14oC). • N and O >99% of the atmosphere. • Water (H2O), CO2, CH4, NO are ~0.44% of the atmosphere.
  64. 64. Isohyets movingsouth-westI.e. Move your farm50km north-east
  65. 65. Source: www.bom.gov.au
  66. 66. Hyden 3 big summers Significant change 20% more likelySource: www.bom.gov.au
  67. 67. Kulin 2 big summers Significant change 14.5% more likelySource: www.bom.gov.au
  68. 68. Seasonal RainfallDrop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (June loss, 60mm variation)2001-2011 GSR: 3 drought; 3 dry, 2 average, 1 above average,1 wet year.GSR = growing season rainfall
  69. 69. 14 Positives? • We know this is happening –Decision making “easier” • Soil moisture becomes the key indicator • Last season gave us a lot of information –Look at what has worked –Water use efficiency –What limitations?
  70. 70. 15 Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earths surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
  71. 71. Hyden Temperatures Significant changeSource: www.bom.gov.au
  72. 72. Source: www.bom.gov.au
  73. 73. 18 Positives? • Wheat grows better with more CO2 –Offsets other problems like pollution –Only to a certain point…… –WUE increases – Causes greater stress at key periods – Only offsets decreases in yield due to temperature changes (Wang, 1992) • Food becomes even more important! –Wheat is 21% of the world food (Ortiz 2008) Wang, 1992: Climate Research Volume 2 pages 131-149 http://www.int- res.com/articles/cr/2/c002p131.pdf Ortiz, 2008: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Volume 126, Issues 1-2, June 2008, Pages 46-58 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880908000194
  74. 74. Greenhouse Gases since 0 (AD)
  75. 75. James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231Over the last 400,000 years 20
  76. 76. 21 EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE • Less rainfall • Especially winter rainfall • Higher evaporation rates • Fewer effective rainfall events • Reduced soil moisture and plant available water • Less runoff due to surface water impacts • Effects on plants’ temperature-determined phenological events (e.g. flowering)
  77. 77. 22 Factors to consider when seeding • The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture) • Stored soil moisture (from summer and early autumn rain). • The target seeding date (trade-off between getting seeding done and hitting best range – may lose yield with later sowing) • Prospect of more rain in the near future • Seasonal outlook (e.g. are there any ENSO strong signals worth considering?).
  78. 78. 23 The Future Results from IOCI research for south-west WA projects that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008): By 2030 • Rainfall will decrease by between 2 to 20 percent; • Temperatures will increase • Summer between 0.5 to 2.1 degrees C; • Winter between 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C; By 2070 • Rainfall will decrease by between 5 to 60 percent; • Temperatures will increase • Summer between 1.0 to 6.5 degrees C; • Winter between 1.0 to 5.5 degrees C. Bates, B. C., Hope, P., Ryan, B., Smith, I. Charles, S. 2008 Key findings from the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative and their impact on policy development in Australia Climate Change (2008) 89:339-354 http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/
  79. 79. 24 So What Have We Learnt?
  80. 80. Source: David Mitchells Soapbox, Channelflip.com
  81. 81. Links for more information http://www.skepticalscience.com http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.html http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/ http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htmAsk for sceptics and reasons why.Alternatively, if already covered in questions at the start, use as a links page.
  82. 82. Actual Changes (past 109 years)Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
  83. 83. Actual changesLast 50 years = 0.7oC increase.Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline. – I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 years. – Climate forcings suggest 5oC increase will occur this century.Last natural change was 5oC in 10,000 years. – I.e. 0.05oC per 100 years.
  84. 84. Is it us? Yes, it is.Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogeniceffects (purple) to global surface warming (HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Leanand Rind (2008). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  85. 85. Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme weather. Note also that this doesnt mean therell be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarer but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network Figure 1: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to anincrease in hot and extreme weather. Note also that this doesnt mean therell be no morecold weather: these cold events will become rarer but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network  30
  86. 86. Increase Radiative Preindustrial Current since forcing Gas level level   1750   (W/m2) Carbon dioxide 280 ppm  388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46 Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb  0.48 Nitrous oxide 270 ppb  314 ppb  44 ppb 0.15 CFC-12 0  533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17 Total Forcing (CO2Equiv) 450ppm NB: 450 ppm of CO2 equivalents is Gas Formula Contribution (%) regarded as the upper “safe” level of H2O Water Vapor 36 – 72 %   greenhouse gases before tipping points occur. (Hansen, 2008) CO2 Carbon Dioxide 9 – 26 % Methane CH4 4 – 9 %   Ozone O3 3 – 7 %  Hansen J, Sato M, et al. (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, 217-231. http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126
  87. 87. Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases. Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizonGas name formula (years) 20-yr 100-yr 500-yrCarbon dioxide CO2 7-10 1 1 1Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6Nitrous oxide N2 O 114 289 298 153CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200HCFC-22 CHClF 2 12 5 160 1 810 549Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700 Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php
  88. 88. CO2 is rising beyond historical levels Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965Keeling CurveGraphic from Wikipedia, the free encyclopaediaThe Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa ObservatoryThe Keeling Curve is a graph showing the variation in concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1958. It is based on continuous measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii under the supervision of Charles David Keeling. Keelings measurements showed the first significant evidence of rapidly increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Many scientists credit Keelings graph with first bringing the worlds attention to the effects that human activity was having on the Earths atmosphere and climate.[1]Charles David Keeling, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, was the first person to make frequent regular measurements of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, taking readings at the South Pole and in Hawaii from 1958 onwards.[2]Prior to Keeling, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was thought to be affected by constant variability. Keeling had perfected the measurement techniques and observed "strong diurnal behaviour with steady values of about 310 ppm in the afternoon" at three locations: (Big Sur near Monterey, the rain forests of Olympic Peninsula and high mountain forests in Arizona).[3] By measuring the ratio of two isotopes of carbon, Keeling attributed the diurnal change to respiration from local plants and soils, with afternoon values representative of the "free atmosphere". By 1960, Keeling and his group established the measurement record that was long enough to see not just the diurnal and seasonal variations, but also a year-on-year increase that roughly matched the amount of fossil fuels burned per year. In the article that made him famous, Keeling observed, "at the South Pole the observed rate of increase is nearly that to be expected from the combustion of fossil fuel".[4]Mauna Loa measurementsDue to funding cuts in the mid-1960s, Keeling was forced to abandon continuous monitoring efforts at the South Pole, but he scraped together enough money to maintain operations at Mauna Loa, which have continued to the present day.[5]The measurements collected at Mauna Loa show a steady increase in mean atmospheric CO2 concentration from about 315 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1958 to 385 ppmv as of June 2008.[6][7] This increase in atmospheric CO2 is considered to be largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and has been accelerating in recent years. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, this has significant implications for global warming. Measurements of carbon dioxide concentration in ancient air bubbles trapped in polar ice cores show that mean atmospheric CO2 concentration has historically been between 275 and 285 ppmv during the Holocene epoch (9,000 BCE onwards), but started rising sharply at the beginning of the nineteenth century.[8] However, analyses of stomatal frequency in tree leaves indicate that mean atmospheric CO2 concentration may have reached 320 ppmv during the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300 CE) and 350 ppmv during the early Holocene.[9][10]Though Mauna Loa is not an active volcano, Keeling and collaborators made measurements on the incoming ocean breeze and above the thermal inversion layer to minimize local contamination from volcanic vents. In addition, the data are normalized to negate any influence from local contamination.[11] Measurements at many other isolated sites have confirmed the long-term trend shown by the Keeling Curve,[12] though no sites have a record as long as Mauna Loa.[13]The Keeling Curve also shows a cyclic variation of about 5 ppmv in each year corresponding to the seasonal change in uptake of CO2 by the worlds land vegetation. Most of this vegetation is in the Northern hemisphere, since this is where most of the land is located. The level decreases from northern spring onwards as new plant growth takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis and rises again in the northern fall as plants and leaves die off and decay to release the gas back into the atmosphere.[14]Due in part to the significance of Keelings findings,[5] the NOAA began monitoring CO2 levels worldwide in the 1970s. Today, CO2 levels are monitored at about 100 sites around the globe.[1]Carbon dioxide measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii are made with a type of infrared spectrophotometer( capnograph invented in 1864 by John Tyndall) called a nondispersive infrared sensor[15]Keeling died in 2005. Supervision of the measuring project was taken over by his son, , a climate science professor at the Scripps
  89. 89. Radiative Forcing (from IPCC 4th Report)
  90. 90. Temperature change relative to 1900 1940 1970 1994 Greenhouse gases 0.1 0.38 0.69 Sulfate emissions -0.04 -0.19 -0.27 Solar forcing 0.18 0.1 0.21 Volcanic forcing 0.11 -0.04 -0.14 Ozone -0.06 0.05 0.08 Net 0.19 0.17 0.53 Observed 0.26 0.21 0.52This figure, based on Meehl et al. (2004), shows the ability with which aglobal climate model (the DOE PCM [1]) is able to reconstruct thehistorical temperature record and the degree to which the associated temperaturechanges can be decomposed into various forcing factors. The top part of the figurecompares a five year average of global temperature measurements (Jones and Moberg2001) to the Meehl et al. results incorporating the effects of five predetermined forcingfactors: greenhouse gases, man-made sulfate emissions, solar variability, ozone changes(both stratospheric and tropospheric), and volcanic emissions (including naturalsulfates). The time history and radiative forcing effectiveness for each of these factorswas specified in advance and was not adjusted to specifically match the temperaturerecord.Also shown are grey bands indicating the 68% and 95% range for natural variability inthe five year average of temperature as determined from multiple simulations withdifferent initial conditions. In other words, the bands indicate the estimated size offluctuations that are expected to result from changes in weather rather than changes inclimate. Ideally the model should be able to reconstruct temperature variations to withinabout the tolerance specified by these bands. Though the model captures the grossfeatures of twentieth century climate change, it remains likely that some of thedifferences between model and observation reflect the limitations of the model and/orour understanding of the histories of the observed forcing factors.In the lower portion of the figure are the results of additional simulations in which themodel was operated with only one forcing factor at a time. A key conclusion of theMeehl et al. (2004) work is that the model response to all factors combined isapproximately equal to the sum of the responses to each of the factors taken individually.They conclude therefore that it is reasonable to discuss how the evolving man-made andnatural influences individually impact climate. Meehl et al. attribute most of the 0.52 °C 35
  91. 91. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  92. 92. Chance of Temperature Increases No Policy Action Policy ActionThe possible global temperature changes are indicated on each wheel, with the probabilities of eachoccurring denoted by the proportion of each wheel. http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/
  93. 93. Crops vs. Temperature Rice: • Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering. • Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C. • Ripening/fill between 20oC to 250C. • 35oC for 1 hour at flowering causes sterility. • Yield decline expected (Peng, 2004) Wheat: • Minimum of 3.5-5.50C. • Optimum 20-250C. • Maximum temperature is 350C. • Yield decline expected (Wang, 1992) Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/Peng, 2004: PNAS Vol 101, Issue 27, pages 9971-9975http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.longWang, 1992: Climate Research Volume 2 pages 131-149 http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/2/c002p131.pdfFurther reading:http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/papers/howden.pdfhttp://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdfhttp://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/01-BWheat/$File/01-B%20Wheat.pdfOrtiz, 2008: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Volume 126, Issues 1-2, June2008, Pages 46-58http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880908000194 38
  94. 94. Source: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdfFurther reading: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/01-BWheat/$File/01-B%20Wheat.pdf 39
  95. 95. This figure shows the relative fraction ofman-made greenhouse gases comingfrom each of eight categories of sources,as estimated by theEmission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project.These values are intended to provide asnapshot of global annual greenhousegas emissions in the year 2000. The toppanel shows the sum over all man-madegreenhouse gases, weighted by theirglobal warming potential over the next 100years. This consists of 72%carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8%nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lowerpanels show the comparable informationfor each of these three primarygreenhouse gases, with the samecolouring of sectors as used in the topchart. Segments with less than 1%fraction are not labelled. http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html
  96. 96. Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earths surface temperatureshave increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highestlevels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are moreapparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit:NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/ 41
  97. 97. As seen by the blue point farthest to the right on this graph, 2009 was the warmest yearon record in the Southern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/ 42
  98. 98. Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239Science 4 September 2009:Vol. 325 no. 5945 pp. 1236-1239Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic CoolingDarrell S. Kaufman1,,David P. Schneider2,Nicholas P. McKay3,Caspar M. Ammann2,Raymond S. Bradley4,Keith R. Briffa5,Gifford H. Miller6,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner2,Jonathan T. Overpeck3,Bo M. Vinther7 andArctic Lakes 2k Project Members†+ Author Affiliations1School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.2Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.3Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.4Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA.5Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.6Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.7Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: darrell.kaufman@nau.eduAbstractThe temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis ofdecadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasivecooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climatesimulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does ourproxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction insummer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000. 43
  99. 99. But climate is cooling…
  100. 100. But climate is cooling…Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuckmann 2009
  101. 101. But it was warmer in…. Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)Fig. 2. Global surface temperature computed for scenarios A, B, and C (12), compared withtwo analyses of observational data. The 0.5°C and 1°C temperature levels, relative to1951–1980, were estimated (12) to be maximum global temperatures in the Holoceneand the prior interglacial period, respectively. Hansen and Lebedeff [J. Geophys. Res.,92,13,345, 1987]Annual mean global surface air temperature computed for scenarios A, B and C.Observational data are an update of the analysis of Hansen and Lebedeff [J. Geophys. Res.,92,13,345, 1987]. Shaded area is an estimate of the global temperature during the peak ofthe current interglacial period (the Altithermal, peaking about 6,000 to 10,000 years ago,when we estimate that global temperature was in the lower part of the shaded area) and theprior interglacial period (the Eemian period, about 120,000 years ago, when we estimatethat global temperature probably peaked near the upper part of the shaded area). Thetemperature zero point is the 1951-1980 mean.Medieval warm period is largely mythical. Yes it was warm during that period, butGreenland has had an icesheet for 400,000 to 800,000 years (at least), and statementsthat it was warmer then than now is false. This is based upon early incomplete sciencedata sets, thus since collecting more data the historical temperatures have been betterunderstood. Also interesting to note that the skeptics use the first IPCC graphs for this, butwon’t use the more complete graphs.Altithermal = A dry postglacial interval centered about 5500 years ago during whichtemperatures were warmer.Eemian = The Eemian was an interglacial period which began about 130,000 years ago andended about 114,000 years ago. It was the second-to-latest interglacial period of the
  102. 102. But it’s the sun… Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD). Graphic www.skepticalscience.com http://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Mythhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htmhttp://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-MythSceptic commentsIts the sun: "Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, at thetime when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests solar activity is influencing the global climate causingthe world to get warmer."What the science says...In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directionsUntil about 1960, measurements by scientists showed that the brightness and warmth of the sun, as seen from theEarth, was increasing. Over the same period temperature measurements of the air and sea showed that the Earth wasgradually warming. It was not surprising therefore for most scientists to put two and two together and assume that it wasthe warming sun that was increasing the temperature of our planet.However, between the 1960s and the present day the same solar measurements have shown that the energy from thesun is now decreasing. At the same time temperature measurements of the air and sea have shown that the Earth hascontinued to become warmer and warmer. This proves that it cannot be the sun; something else must be causing theEarths temperature to rise.So, while there is no credible science indicating that the sun is causing the observed increase in global temperature, itsthe known physical properties of greenhouse gasses that provide us with the only real and measurable explanation ofglobal warming.Bit more:As supplier of almost all the energy in Earths climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climateover the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rosewhile solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar totalirradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recentwarming episode must have another source."In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, overthe same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have beenmoving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influencein recent decades (Lockwood 2008).Figure 1: Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (thick darkred). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar Irradiance (thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick darkblue). TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Solanki. TSI from 1979 to 2009 from PMOD.Other studies on solar influence on climateThis conclusion is confirmed by many studies finding that while the sun contributed to warming in the early 20th Century, it hashad little contribution (most likely negative) in the last few decades:Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed tosolar activity is 14% of the observed global warming."Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20thcentury and is negligible for warming since 1980." 47Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward;
  103. 103. But the sun will be colder….Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, andA2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occurduring the 21st century. Source: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solaractivity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707 Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
  104. 104. But scientists don’t agree…Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributingfactor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a2008 Gallup poll.
  105. 105. But scientists don’t agree…contDistribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climate change and unconvinced by theevidence with a given number of total climate publications http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstractGraphic www.skepticalscience.com
  106. 106. But it used to be cooling…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  107. 107. But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
  108. 108. But they are models…. Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. (b) represents simulations done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. (c) was done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings Chapter 12 IPCC 3rd report 2001Also use Sir David Attenborough’s video to support this. 53
  109. 109. But the Antarctic is gaining ice… Myth brought about by confusion between sea ice increases and land ice losses in Antarctica.Ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheetfrom April 2002 to February 2009. Unfiltereddata are blue crosses. Data filtered for theseasonal dependence are red crosses. Thebest-fitting quadratic trend is shown as the greenline (Velicogna 2009). Graphic courtesy ofwww.skepticalscience.com
  110. 110. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.comSource: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
  111. 111. • La Nina = warmer seas near Australia• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina – Get more from change over years
  112. 112. Impact of Carbon Tax Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reproduced from the Federal Government documentSecuring a clean energy futurehttp://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp
  113. 113. Impact of Carbon TaxTable 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020 Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050

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