A. Stotz All Weather Strategy - Performance review September 2023.pdf
1. Please refer to important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the report
Presented by: Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA 3 October 2023
A. Stotz All Weather Strategy
āļāļĢāļ°āļāļēāļĒāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļ
āđāļāļ·āđāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āļĒāļēāļ§
2. Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
2
astotz.com
Global āļĨāļāļāļļāļāļāļąāđāļ§āđāļĨāļ
Long-term āļŦāļ§āļąāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āļĒāļēāļ§
Diversified āļāļĢāļ°āļāļēāļĒāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļ
GLD
4. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
4
astotz.com
Absolute Performance (%, local currency)
Stock Exchange (SE) 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y
NYSE (0.5) (1.1) (4.0) (2.2) (0.2) 1.4 1.9 16.9 17.3
NASDAQ SE 0.1 0.1 (5.2) (2.7) 15.4 26.3 10.0 13.0 63.0
Canadian SE (0.3) (1.2) (3.6) (1.9) (1.2) 1.1 6.6 23.7 23.3
Brazil SE 0.6 0.3 (2.2) (3.7) 7.2 0.4 0.1 (2.4) 12.1
Americas 0.1 (0.1) (5.0) (2.7) 13.6 23.1 9.4 13.6 57.8
Japan SE (0.9) (2.2) 0.9 1.2 16.4 22.8 24.3 50.0 31.9
Shanghai SE 0.1 0.8 (4.3) (2.6) (4.4) 0.7 (3.6) (4.8) 10.2
Hong Kong SE 1.1 0.9 (3.7) (5.9) (11.8) (10.0) 3.8 (23.5) (35.9)
Shenzhen SE 0.4 1.7 (4.9) (2.5) (8.9) (3.3) (10.5) (12.8) 21.5
National SE 0.7 0.2 2.2 9.6 19.1 11.9 15.5 90.1 88.7
Korean SE 0.1 (3.7) (2.2) 2.0 2.7 10.2 4.1 12.8 11.2
Australia SE 0.3 (0.3) (2.2) (2.0) (0.0) 0.1 7.5 18.4 13.5
Taiwan SE 0.3 0.2 (3.9) (0.1) 6.6 15.7 9.1 54.3 56.2
Singapore SE 0.3 0.4 (0.2) 0.7 (1.4) (1.0) (0.2) 26.7 (0.8)
Malaysia SE (1.1) (1.7) (2.1) 1.4 (2.1) (4.8) (5.2) (4.7) (15.8)
Thailand SE (0.7) (3.4) (6.2) (4.5) (9.3) (11.8) (9.5) 10.7 (16.7)
Vietnam SE 0.2 (3.3) (4.2) 2.6 9.3 14.6 2.5 27.7 23.4
Philippines SE (1.0) 2.9 1.5 (2.9) (4.7) (3.7) 6.5 7.4 (19.3)
Asia 0.1 (0.0) (2.7) (0.5) 0.6 4.5 2.1 13.9 22.3
European SE 0.4 (0.6) (3.0) (2.8) (1.0) 7.5 20.2 37.6 24.8
London SE 0.2 (1.1) 1.4 1.3 (0.0) 0.9 9.7 22.2 (2.7)
Saudi SE (0.2) (0.1) (2.9) 1.2 5.6 4.8 (6.2) 58.6 43.0
Deutsche SE 0.6 (1.5) (3.9) (4.4) (4.4) 5.6 19.9 2.3 1.3
Swiss SE 0.4 (0.5) (1.3) (1.9) (1.2) 2.2 0.6 7.9 20.7
Moscow SE (*No data since 18 Mar 2022) na na na na na na na na na
BME Spanish SE 0.0 (0.8) (1.6) (0.9) 3.7 13.8 26.4 36.9 5.5
Europe, Africa, Middle East 0.3 (1.0) (0.9) (1.1) (1.1) 3.6 12.1 14.5 3.2
Total 0.1 (0.2) (3.5) (1.6) 6.6 13.3 7.1 13.9 36.6
Source: Refinitiv, updated as of 29 Sep 2023
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļāļāļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. ValuationMasterClass.com/resources/market-stats
Note: Data as of 29 September 2023.
āļŦāļļāđāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļĄāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ
āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
āļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļŦāļāļķāđāļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāđāļŦāļāđ
āđāļĄāđāļāļĩāđāļāļĨāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļāđāļāđ
āļŦāļļāđāļāļŪāđāļāļāļāļāđāļĨāļ°āļāļĩāļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđ
āđāļĒāđāđāļāđāļāļāļąāļ
āļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ āđāļāđāļāđāļāļĒāļāļ§āđāļē
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļĩāļ
5. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
5
astotz.com
āļāļąāļāđāļāļ: āļāļąāļāļāļĩāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļđāđāļāļĢāļīāđāļ āļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ (CPI) āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļķāđāļ 3.7% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļŠāļīāļāļŦāļēāļāļĄ āļāļēāļāļāđāļ§āļāļāļĩ āļāđāļāļ
āļāļķāđāļāļŠāļđāļāļāļ§āđāļē CPI āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļĢāļāļāļēāļāļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļĒāļđāđāļĢāļ°āļāļąāļ 3.2% āđāļĄāđ CPI āļāļ·āđāļāļāļēāļāļāļ°āļĨāļāļĨāļ
Source: Twitter
6. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
6
astotz.com
āļāļąāļāđāļāļ: āļāļąāļāļāļĩāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļđāđāļāļĢāļīāđāļ āļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ (CPI) āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļķāđāļ 3.7% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļŠāļīāļāļŦāļēāļāļĄ āļāļēāļāļāđāļ§āļāļāļĩ āļāđāļāļ
āļāļķāđāļāļŠāļđāļāļāļ§āđāļē CPI āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļĢāļāļāļēāļāļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļĒāļđāđāļĢāļ°āļāļąāļ 3.2% āđāļĄāđ CPI āļāļ·āđāļāļāļēāļāļāļ°āļĨāļāļĨāļ
Source: Twitter
7. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
7
astotz.com
āļāļąāļāđāļāļ: āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāđāļēāļĒāļ āļēāļāļĢāļąāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļ·āđāļāļ
Source: Twitter
18. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
18
astotz.com
āļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļ: 85% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research
This is not a recommendation or investment advice.
Exposure Asset class Weight (%)
Equity
US Equity 25.0
Developed Europe Equity 25.0
Japan Equity 25.0
Emerging markets Equity 5.0
Asia Pacific ex JP Equity 5.0
85.0
Bonds
Global bonds Bond 5.0
5.0
Others
Commodities Commodities 5.0
Gold Gold 5.0
10.0
100
19. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
19
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 4.1% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļāļāļĩ 2022 āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
18.0%
āļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļāļĩ 2023 āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§
āļāļķāđāļ 10.5%
āļāļēāļĢāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļāļāļāļāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāļāļē
āđāļŦāđāđāļāļīāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļ§āļĨāđāļāļĩāđāļĒāļ§āļāļąāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļē
āđāļāļīāļāđāļāđ āļāļāļĩāđāļĨāļāļ āđāļē āđāļĨāļ°āļāļēāļĢāļāļķāđāļ
āļāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāļĒāļāļĩāđāļĒāļēāļ§āļāļēāļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļĩāđ
āļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāđ āļāļķāđāļāļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
20. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
20
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāđāļĒāđāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
4.9% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļąāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļāļĩāđāđāļāļīāđāļĄāļāļķāđāļ
āđāļĨāļ°āļāļēāļĢāļŦāļĒāļļāļāļāļ°āļāļąāļāļāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļēāļĨ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ (government
shutdown) āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļāļĢāļĢāļĒāļēāļāļēāļĻ
āļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āđāļĄāđāļāļĩ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
21. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
21
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļāđ āļāļāļąāļāļāļąāļ 3 āđāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļŦāļļāđāļ āđāļāđ
āļāđāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 3.0% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļāļĨāļēāļ
āļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļēāđāļĨāđāļ§
āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāđāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļĒāļąāļāļāļ
āļāđāļāļāđāļ āđāļāđāļāļąāļāļĢāļēāđāļāļīāļāđāļāđāļāļāļđ
āđāļŦāļĄāļ·āļāļāļāļ°āļāļ°āļĨāļāļĨāļāđāļĢāđāļ§āļāļ§āđāļēāļāļĩāđāļāļīāļ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
22. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
22
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļāđāļāđ āļāļāļąāļāļāļąāļ 2 āđāļ
āļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļŦāļļāđāļ āđāļāđāļāđāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 2.8% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
23. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
23
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļāļāļīāļāļī āļāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļ āļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāđāļĒāđāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļāđāļāđ āļāļāļąāļāļāļąāļ
2 āđāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļŦāļļāđāļ āđāļāļĒāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 3.1% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļāļāļīāļāļīāļāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāļāđāļĨāļ°āđāļāđāļŦāļ§āļąāļāļāļāļāļąāļ
āļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļāļĩāđ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
24. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
24
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ āđāļāļĒāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļ
0.9% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāđāļ§āđāļēāļĢāļąāļāļāļēāļĨ āđāļĨāļ°
āļāļāļēāļāļēāļĢāļāļĨāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ (BOJ) āļāļ°
āļŠāļāļąāļāļŠāļāļļāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļāļīāļāđāļāļāļēāļ
āđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
25. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
25
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļąāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļāđāļāđāļāļ·āđāļāļ āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļ
āļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļ
āļāļąāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāđāļĨāļ āđāļāđāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļ
āļāļđāļāļāļāļāļąāļāļāđāļ§āļĒāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļēāļāļŦāļ§āļąāļāļāļĩāđ
āļāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāļĒāļāļ°āļāļĒāļđāđāđāļāļĢāļ°āļāļąāļāļŠāļđāļāđāļāđāļ
āļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āđāļ§āļĨāļēāļāļēāļ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
26. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
26
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŠāļīāļāļāđāļēāđāļ āļāļ āļąāļāļāđāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļ·āđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļ
āļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āļāļąāļāļŠāļīāļāļāđāļē
āđāļ āļāļ āļąāļāļāđ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
27. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
27
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāļāļīāļ WTI āļāļī āļāļāļĩāđ 92 āļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāđāļ
āļāļēāļĢ āđāđāļĢāļĨ āļ āļŠāļīāđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Data as of 29 September 2023.
āļāļēāļāļļāļāļīāļāļēāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļĨāļ°āļĢāļąāļŠāđāļāļĩāļĒāļĒāļąāļ
āļāļĨāļīāļāļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāđāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļēāļāļĩāđāļāđāļēāļāđāļāđāļ
āļāļļāļāļŠāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāđāļāļīāđāļĄāļāļķāđāļ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļļāļāļāļēāļāļāļĩāđ
āļāļķāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§
āđāļāļīāđāļĄāļāļķāđāļ
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep-89 Dec-93 Mar-98 Jun-02 Sep-06 Dec-10 Mar-15 Jun-19 Sep-23
Crude oil - WTI spot price (US$/bbl)
28. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
28
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļĨāļąāļāļāļēāļāļāļĨāļąāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļēāļāļēāļŠāļīāļāļāđāļēāđāļ āļāļ āļąāļāļāđ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, TradingView, Refinitiv.
Note: Price data as of 29 September 2023.
7
1
1
(3)
(5)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
Energy Industrial
metals
Livestock Agriculture Precious
metals
Past 1 month total return (%, USD)
29. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
29
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 3.7% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ
2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļāļāļāļāļē
āļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļīāļāļāļĩāđ 1,848
āļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāđāļāļāļāļāļ āđ
āļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļąāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āļāļĩāđāđāļāļīāđāļĄāļāļķāđāļāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļē
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
30. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
30
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļļāļāļŠāļāļļāļĨāđāļāļīāļāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļķāđāļāđāļĄāļ·āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļāļāļāļāļāļēāđāļ
āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv
āļāļĒāđāļēāļāđāļĢāļāđāļāļĩ āđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāļļāļĨāļāļ·āđāļ āđ
āļāļąāđāļāļŦāļĄāļāļāđāļāļāļāđāļēāđāļĄāļ·āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļ
āļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļāļĩ
āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļē
āļāđāļēāļĨāļāđāļāļĢāļđāļāđāļŦāļĢāļĩāļĒāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
Stronger/(Weaker) versus Gold (%)
Currency Code
Gold price
(lcy/t oz) 1M 3M YTD 1Y 5Y 10Y
United States Dollar USD 1,849 4.6 3.1 (1.3) (11.3) (55.1) (38.3)
Euro EUR 1,751 1.7 0.3 (2.7) (3.5) (70.5) (77.2)
Japanese Yen JPY 275,975 2.4 0.1 (15.4) (15.0) (103.6) (110.2)
Sterling GBP 1,516 1.1 (0.2) (0.5) (1.4) (65.6) (83.0)
Swiss franc CHF 1,691 0.6 1.5 (0.3) (4.4) (44.5) (39.8)
Renminbi CNY 13,496 4.3 2.5 (7.2) (14.1) (64.8) (65.1)
Thai baht THB 67,584 0.4 0.6 (7.0) (7.5) (75.4) (61.6)
31. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
31
astotz.com
āļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāļąāļāļāļąāđāļ AWS āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļ 24.3%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Feb-19 Apr-20 Jun-21 Aug-22 Sep-23
AWS
Total return, rebased to 100
124.3
32. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
32
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļķāđāļ 24.3% āđāļĨāđāļ§ AWS āļĒāļąāļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļ
āđāļŦāļāļ·āļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āļāļąāļāļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļāļąāđāļāļāļĒāļđāđ 11.7%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Feb-19 Apr-20 Jun-21 Aug-22 Sep-23
AWS
60/40*
Total return, rebased to 100
124.3
112.6
33. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
33
astotz.com
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023: AWS āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 2.4% āļāļķāđāļ
āļāļĩāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āļāļĒāļđāđ 1.5%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
āļāļēāļĢāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
25% āļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩ
āļāļēāļĢāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄ
āļāļąāļāļāļēāđāļĨāđāļ§āļāđāļāļ·āļāļ§āđāļēāđāļ āđāđāļāđ āđāļĄāļ·āđāļ
āđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļ·āđāļ āđ
āđāļāđāļāļēāļĢāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļ
āđāļāļĒāļĢāļ§āļĄ
equiti
es
0.9
(0.2)
(2.4)
(2.8) (2.9) (3.0) (3.1)
(3.7) (3.9)
(4.9)
(6.0)
(5.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
Past 1 month total return (%)
34. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
34
astotz.com
AWS (%) Since inception 2yrs 12mth YTD23 6mth 3mth 1mth
Return 24.3 (3.7) 5.9 1.7 1.8 (2.1) (2.4)
Standard deviation* 10.0 9.5 7.7 7.2 7.2 7.8 7.1
Risk-adjusted return* (x) 0.5 (0.2) 0.8 0.3 0.5 (1.0) (3.8)
Maximum drawdown (20.5) (14.7) (6.0) (6.0) (4.2) (4.2) (3.2)
Drawdown-adjusted return (x) 1.2 na 1.0 0.3 0.4 na na
60/40 (%) Since inception 2yrs 12mth YTD23 6mth 3mth 1mth
Return 12.6 (23.7) 2.8 0.8 (2.0) (4.1) (3.9)
Standard deviation* 11.9 10.5 9.5 8.1 7.6 8.5 7.2
Risk-adjusted return* (x) 0.2 (1.2) 0.3 0.1 (0.5) (1.8) (5.5)
Maximum drawdown (21.5) (19.4) (6.7) (6.7) (6.7) (6.7) (4.1)
Drawdown-adjusted return (x) 0.6 na 0.4 0.1 na na na
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļŠāļĢāđāļēāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļĩ
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
AWS āđāļŦāđāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļĩāđāļāļĩ āđāļĄāļ·āđāļ
āđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļŠāļĩāđāļĒāļāđāļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āļĒāļēāļ§
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
35. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
35
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļĄāļĩāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļāļāđāļēāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
āļŠāļąāļāļŠāđāļ§āļāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ 25-
65% āļāđāļ§āļĒāļĨāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļ
āļāļāļāļāļēāļāđāļ§āļĒāļĨāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļ
āđāļāļĒāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļāļāļāļāļĢ āđāļ āđāļāļĢāļēāļ°āđāļāđāļ
āļŠāļīāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļĒāđāļāļĩāđāđāļĄāđāļĄāļĩāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļąāļĄāļāļąāļāļāđ
āļāļąāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee
of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed
or implied, is made regarding future performance.
0.9
10.0
11.9
14.4
16.0
17.9
20.9 21.0 21.1 21.1
-
5
10
15
20
25
Annualized volatility (%)
36. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
36
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļāļēāļāļāļļāļāļāđāļāļĒāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 9 āļāļĢāļąāđāļāļāļēāļ 10
āļāļĢāļąāđāļāđāļāļāđāļ§āļāļāļĩāđāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļĄāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
āļāļļāļāđāļāđāļāļŠāļēāļāļąāļāļāļāļ AWS āļāļ·āļ
āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļąāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļļāļāđāļĄāļ·āđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
(7.0)
(5.5)
(4.0)
(4.5)
(3.1) (3.2)
(2.7)
(2.3) (2.2) (2.1)
(8)
(7)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
AWS
60/40*
Return on the 10 worst-returning days of Global equity (%)
37. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
37
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāļāļĒāļēāļĒāļ 2023 āđāļĨāļ°āđāļāļĒāļĢāļ§āļĄ
āļŠāļĢāđāļēāļāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļŠāļđāļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āđāļ 60% āļāļāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāđāļāļŦāļĄāļ
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 29 September 2023.
AWS āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļŠāļĢ āđāļēāļ
āļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļŦāļāļ·āļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ
60/40 āđāļ 33 āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļēāļ 55
āđāļāļ·āļāļ
Past performance should not be taken as an
indication or guarantee of future performance,
and no representation or warranty, expressed or
implied, is made regarding future performance.
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
1
2
3
4
5
Mar-19 Jan-20 Nov-20 Sep-21 Jul-22 May-23
AWS vs. 60/40*
Total return (%)
AWS outperformed60/40*
AWS underperformed60/40*
52. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
52
astotz.com
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļŠāđāļāļāļĨāļĨāļ
āļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, FRED
āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļĢāļ°āļŦāļāļĩāđāļāļĩāđ
āđāļāđāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļāļ
āļāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĻāđāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļēāđāļāđāļĒāļēāļāļāļķāđāļ
āđāļāļ·āđāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļ°āļāđāļāļāđāļ āđāđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāļļāļĨ
āļāđāļāļāļāļīāđāļāļĄāļēāđāļĨāļāļĄāļēāļāļāļķāđāļ
āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļ°āđāļāđāļāļāļĨāđāļŠāļĩāļĒāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
110
78
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Real Broad Dollar Index
Emerging markets
Index, rebased to 100
53. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
53
astotz.com
ïŦ āļāļĩāļāļāļĒāļđāđāļĢāļ°āļŦāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāđāļāļīāļāļāđāļĒāļāļēāļĒāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļāļīāļāđāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļĨāļēāļĒ
āđāļĨāļ°āļāļēāļĢāđāļ āđāļĄāļēāļāļĢāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļĨāļąāļ āđāļāļ·āđāļāļāļĢāļ°āļāļļāđāļāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāđāļ§āļĒ
ïŦ āļĒāļąāļāđāļĄāđāļāļąāļāđāļāļāļ§āđāļēāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāļĩāļāļāļķāļāļāļļāļāļāđāļēāļŠāļļāļāđāļĨāđāļ§āļŦāļĢāļ·āļāļĒāļąāļ
ïŦ āđāļĄāđāļ§āđāļēāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāļĩāļāļāļ°āļāļ·āđāļāļāļąāļ§āđāļāđ āđāļāđāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāļāļāļēāļāļāļđāļāļāļāļāļąāļāļāļēāļ
āļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļŠāļĩāđāļĒāļāļāđāļēāļāļ āļđāļĄāļīāļĢāļąāļāļĻāļēāļŠāļāļĢ āđ
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļāļĩāļāļāļēāļĨāļąāļāļĄāļĩāļāļąāļāļŦāļē
54. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
54
astotz.com
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 Nov-21 Oct-22 Sep-23
US
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
China A
Total return indices, rebased to 100
Total return indices, rebased to 100
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāļāļĄāļĩāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāļĄāļēāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
āđāļĨāļ°āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 29 September 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ āđāļĨāļ° 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
55. 3 October 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
55
astotz.com
2.2
44
-
10
20
30
40
50
-
1
2
3
1992 1999 2006 2013 2020
Japan non-financial companies' cash holdings
Cash holdings as % of GDP (RHS)
(US$trn) (%)
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļāļĢāļīāļĐāļąāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļāđāļāđāļāļŠāļ°āļŠāļĄāđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāđāļ§āđāļāļēāļāļ§āļāļĄāļēāļ
āđāļāļāđāļ§āļāļāļĻāļ§āļĢāļĢāļĐāļāļĩāđāļāđāļāļĄāļē
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Japan Ministry of Finance, World Bank
āļāļąāļāļāļļāļāļąāļāļāļēāļāļ§āđāļēāļĄāļĩāđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāļāļēāļāļ§āļ
2.2 āļĨāđāļēāļāļĨāđāļēāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āļŦāļĢāļ·āļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāđāļāđāļē 44% āļāļāļ
GDP
72. 3 October 2023
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